原木周报： 冬储备货，需求表现分化 20260107 弘业金融研究院 数据来源：钢联、弘业金融研究院 姜周曦琳 从业资格号：F03114700 投资咨询号：Z0022394 原木产业数据 ➢ 期现货： • 现货端，日照港3.9米中A辐射松原木740元/方，较上期持稳；本周太仓港4米中A辐射松原木730元/方，较上期上涨。整体来看，原木现货价 格偏弱运行，江苏市场普涨。 • 期货端，截至1月7日收盘，原木主力2603报收782元/方，震荡偏强。2026年1月上旬，进口针叶原木散货船海运费（新西兰→中国）25美元 /JAS方，较2025年12月下旬下跌1美元/JAS方，环比下跌3.85%。 ➢ 供应： • 2025年12月，新西兰原木离港船只约55条，月环比增加6条，总发货量约204万方，较11月189.2万方增加8%。其中，42条船发往中国，发货量 约152.1万方，占比75%，较11月145.2万方增加5%。近期发中国船数仍有增幅，1月中旬到港集中，海外供应减量尚未体现。 • 本周13港原木预计到港量：2025/12/29-2026/1/4，中国13港新西兰针叶原木预计到船15条，较上周增加6条，周环比增加6 ...

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 曹剑兰 关注微信公众号 万/立方米 山东 185.20 181 3 3.9 2.15% 江苏 52.10 61.52 -94 -15.30% 需求:日均出库量 (周慶) 12月26日 12月19日 单位 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 5.83 中国 6.32 -0.49 -8% 万/立方米 2.79 -0.55 -16% 3.34 山东 江苏 2.52 -3% 2 44 -0.08 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木王要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 = 2022 = 2023 = =2024 · 2025 =2022 -2023 - 2024 2025 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 220 = 2020 -2022 2021 860 2025 2023 2024 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The log futures market continues to be weak. In December, the foreign market quotes dropped significantly, and the spot prices continued to decline gradually. Some timber species are being used. The 01 contract is about to enter the delivery month and is greatly affected by delivery pressure. Overall, the log futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices - In Shandong, for radiation pine, the spot prices for 3.9 - meter medium A, 5.9 - meter medium A, 3.9 - meter small A, 5.9 - meter small A, and 4 - meter medium A are 740, 770, 680, 710, and 730 yuan respectively [3]. - In Jiangsu, for radiation pine, the spot prices for 4 - meter medium A, 6 - meter medium A, 4 - meter small A, and 6 - meter small A are 730, 760, 760, and 720 yuan respectively [3]. Foreign Market Quotes - The price range of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine in December is 109 - 113 dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 4 dollars from the November range of 112 - 119 dollars [3]. Futures Prices - The price of LG2601 contract is 766.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 2 yuan from the previous period; the price of LG2603 contract is 776 yuan per cubic meter, up 6 yuan from the previous period [3]. Downstream Wood Square Prices - In Shandong and Jiangsu, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares remains unchanged at 1220 and 1240 yuan respectively compared to the previous period [3]. Supply - In November 2025, the import volumes from New Zealand, North America, and Europe were 178.8, 9.3, and 15.5 million cubic meters respectively, compared to 149.58, 6.77, and 13.09 million cubic meters in October. The weekly arrival volume from December 6 - 12 was 41 million JAS cubic meters, compared to 26 million in November 29 - December 5 [3]. Inventory - On December 18, the total inventory was 260 million cubic meters. Shandong's inventory was 181.3 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 61.5 million cubic meters [3]. Demand - On December 18, the daily average outbound volume was 6.32 million cubic meters. Shandong's outbound volume was 3.34 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 2.52 million cubic meters [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - **Demand**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - **Main Data Summary**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - **Outbound Volume**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Timber Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].

供需双弱，关注贸易制裁下运费上涨风险 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 【策略】 1.单边：供需双弱，成本支撑，建议观望为主。激进投资者可少量布局多单。 2.套利：观望 3.期权：观望。 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面：现货辐射松山东760元/方、江苏780元/方连续两周持平，同比仍低5-9%；云杉山东1150元/方年内高位。本周到港45.6万 方环比+79%，13港总库存299万方环比+4.6%，日均出库5.7万方环比-12.7%，南强北弱、出库放缓，建筑资金到位率59.4%微降，现 货呈"高供给、累库存、弱需求"的稳态偏强格局。 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，到港量预计维持正常偏多水平， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation, and the downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, while the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery on the demand side needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Fundamental Analysis - In November, New Zealand's timber shipment volume decreased seasonally compared to October, and this week's direct shipment volume to China decreased by 108,000 cubic meters. However, the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 domestic ports increased by 80% to 391,000 cubic meters, and later arrivals will be concentrated in Shandong. In addition, Jiangsu ports have tightened inspections on imported Japanese cryptomeria, and it is expected that the supply of Japanese cryptomeria will be tightened. The overall demand is weak, with the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports decreasing by 4.81% week - on - week. Only some regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong saw an increase in outbound volume. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased slightly, and there was no obvious boost in demand for both housing construction and non - housing construction projects. The inventory continued the slight destocking trend, with the total inventory at 2.97 million cubic meters (a 1.98% week - on - week decrease). The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber decreased, while the inventory of spruce/fir remained flat, and the overall inventory pressure was moderately relieved [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6] Core Logic Analysis - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation. The radiata pine price in Rizhao, Shandong is firm at 750 yuan per cubic meter, while the price in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 740 yuan per cubic meter. The downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In December, the foreign market price decreased by 2% month - on - month, and the stronger RMB increased the purchasing power of traders, partially offsetting the cost pressure on the supply side. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, with Russia's forestry output potentially decreasing by 20% - 30% and Canadian enterprises reducing production temporarily. Meanwhile, the reforestation in countries such as China will optimize the long - term supply structure. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery [5] Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 ships compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 48%. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters of logs left the New Zealand ports for shipment, a decrease of 8 ships and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. In November, the monthly shipment volume decreased by 4 ships compared to October, showing seasonal characteristics but with a limited decline [13] Log Inventory - As of November 28th, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.50%. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week. By province, as of November 28th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,986,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 850,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 52,478 cubic meters, an increase of 21,511 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16] Log Demand - As of November 28th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 30,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 5,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.32%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,200 cubic meters, an increase of 2,600 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 11.02%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 2,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.24%. As of December 2nd, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.49%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.59%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 54.02%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [20] Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter, or 5.06%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter compared to last week, or 1.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan per cubic meter, or 7.50%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter, or 9.26% [24] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and the same in the Jiangsu market. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,850 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [28] Import Log Costs - As of the time of publication, the December foreign market price has moved down compared to the November quotation, with the quotation range being 110 - 116. Some foreign merchants have continuously reduced prices for multiple rounds, and traders tend to expect the foreign market price to be in the 112 - 113 range [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Last week, log futures maintained a low - level oscillation, and spot prices declined. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remained resilient. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. In general, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On November 21st, the main LG2601 contract of log futures closed at 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of some other specifications of radiata pine logs decreased, while the prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was also 750 yuan per cubic meter [2][3] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 21st was 7.113 yuan, and the import theoretical cost (calculated with a 15% over - length) was 811.02 yuan, showing little change compared with the previous day [2] Supply - In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54. From November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13 ships, a 30% increase from the previous week, and the arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, a 48% increase [2][3] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 295 million cubic meters, a 0.68% increase from the previous week. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.04% to 195.4 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's inventory increased by 1.46% [2][3] Demand - As of November 14th, the daily average log out - bound volume was 6.56 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from the previous week. Demand decreased month - on - month [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downward. The supply-side arrival volume continues to recover, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 785, 794, and 808 yuan/cubic meter respectively, down 0.51%, 0.63%, and 0.19% from the previous day. The prices of some specifications of radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port decreased, with the largest decline of 3.41% for large radiata pine in Rizhao Port. The prices of radiata pine 4m medium A and spruce 11.8m in the outer market remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 18, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was 7.113 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 810.99 yuan, up 0.91 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 17.39% from the previous month [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 2.04% and 1.46% respectively [1][2] Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in China and Shandong decreased by 1% and 3% respectively, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 7% [1][2] Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 3 ships from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 48% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The log spot price is running weakly, mainly due to a large short - term arrival volume, a decline in demand, and inventory accumulation of radiata pine. The futures price is also in a weak state, and the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium and long term [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand has increased, and the recent arrival volume is large. Although the expected arrival volume in some periods has decreased, the overall import volume in October continued to decline and is at a low level over the years [4]. - The downstream demand for logs is weak. The daily average outbound volume of logs in ports has decreased, and the contradiction between high arrival pressure and weak downstream demand is prominent [5]. - There are many uncertainties in tariff and trade policies, which may affect the import and export of logs and the export of wood products. The lifting of the suspension of importing US logs may have limited short - term impact [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Industry Data - Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, both lower than the previous period. In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars/cubic meter, up 1 US dollar/cubic meter from the previous month [4]. - Futures: As of November 12, the log main contract 2601 closed at 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, continuing the weak oscillation [4]. Log Industry Data - Supply - In October 2025, about 54 vessels departed from New Zealand with logs, a monthly increase of 8 vessels, and the total shipment was about 2.013 million cubic meters, a 14% increase from September. Among them, 41 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.502 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 2% increase from September [4]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, 12 vessels carrying New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 4 fewer than last week, a 25% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 395,000 cubic meters, 136,000 cubic meters less than last week, a 26% week - on - week decrease [4]. - From November 3 - 9, 2025, 16 vessels carrying New Zealand logs actually arrived at 13 Chinese ports, 1 more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase; the total arrival volume was about 531,000 cubic meters, 37,000 cubic meters more than last week, a 7% week - on - week increase [4]. - In October 2025, China imported 4.19 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to October, the import volume was 46.366 million cubic meters, a 12.4% year - on - year decrease [4]. Log Industry Data - Inventory - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters from last week; the North American timber inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 200,000 cubic meters, unchanged from last week [5]. - The high arrival volume continues to put pressure on port log inventory and spot prices. The inventory accumulation is expected to last until mid - November and may ease after 1 - 2 weeks [5]. Log Industry Data - Demand - From October 27 to November 2, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 62,800 cubic meters, a 2.48% decrease from last week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 31,900 cubic meters, a 9.89% decrease from last week; that at Jiangsu ports was 24,300 cubic meters, a 4.29% increase from last week [5]. - The national log outbound volume continues to decline. There is a risk of some log ships being stranded at Taicang Port and may be diverted to other ports such as Shandong [5]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Tariffs and Imports/Exports) - China's radiata pine imports are concentrated in New Zealand, and the risk of over - dependence on a single source is increasing [6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an indirect impact on the log futures market. The adjustment of the construction industry structure is beneficial to the log futures market sentiment [6]. - The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the US in May is beneficial to wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish [6]. - In July, the suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days was extended again, and the uncertainty of China's wood product export costs remains [6]. - In October, there were news of various tariff changes, which may affect global trade directions [6]. - The EU and Mexico have taken anti - dumping measures against Chinese wood products [6]. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs since November 10, 2025, but the short - term arrival volume will be limited [6]. - The freight cost of Russian logs has increased, and the price of Russian logs has risen by 11% - 14% [6]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Trading and Delivery) - The first - batch delivery of the 07 contract in various regions was successful, and the 5.9 - meter medium A specification is considered a cost - effective delivery product [7]. - The 09 contract had its first delivery in multiple places, ensuring the stable operation of the market [7]. - Attention should be paid to the delivery of domestic cryptomeria in Chongqing for the 11 contract this week [7]. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook (Downstream and Building Materials/Real Estate) - In September 2025, the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores nationwide was 130.838 billion yuan, a 23.84% month - on - month increase and an 8.02% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 1.044801 trillion yuan, a 3.75% year - on - year decrease [7]. - As of November 4, the capital in - place rate of sample construction sites was 59.82%, with a month - on - month increase. The capital in - place situation of real estate projects has improved, but the log demand side is still weak [7]. Log Industry Data - Strategies and Suggestions - The 2509 contract was weak in the off - season of the second quarter and rose from July to August. After entering the delivery month, the near - and far - month contracts showed different trends [8]. - The 2511 contract rose in September and then fell rapidly before the delivery month. The demand in the traditional peak season this year was average, and the futures price quickly corrected after the holiday in October [8]. - The 2601 contract was relatively strong when the 2511 contract declined. Recently, it began to decline rapidly and then oscillated at a low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the log price is under pressure [8].