消息面 9月24日原木现货市场报价:山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格为750元/方，较昨日持平，江苏4米中A辐 射松原木现货价格为770元/方，较昨日持平。供需关系上没有太大矛盾，强预期和弱现实博弈，现货成 交较弱，关注旺季现货端价格，进口数据，库存变化以及宏观预期市场情绪对价格的支撑。 新世纪期货： 整体来看，现货市场价格偏稳运行，本周原木到港预计环增，供应端趋紧，日均出库量减少，目前暂无 明显上涨动力，预计原木区间震荡。 中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.33万立方米，较上周降0.09。 机构观点 国新国证期货： 截止2025年9月22日当周，中国针叶原木港口样本库存量：292万m ，环比减少10万m ，库存转为去 化。 上周实际到港量23.56万方（-23.44），其中新西兰口径到港量21万方（-20.9）；本周新西兰预计到港量 将增加至33.6万方左右。 ...

供需双弱，原木价格趋稳 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 供应端，新西兰 9 月发运量预计与 8 月持平（约 166.6 万方），但 10 月后季节性减产或导致供应收缩；国内进口量 1-7 月同比下降 6.57%，主要受北美材和欧洲材进口减少拖累。需求端，房地产新开工面积 1-8月同比下降 20%，港口日均出库量 7-8 月回落至 6 万立 方米左右。整体供需双弱。 新西兰冬季减产（预计9-11月发运量下降）可能缓解进口压力，但国内需求复苏需依赖基建项目落地及地产政策效果。若房建资金持 续低迷，叠加海外发运恢复，库存或重新累积，价格承压。 【策略】 1.单边：供需双弱，成本支撑，建议观望为主。激进投资者可少量布局多单。 2.套利：观望 221 ...

需求不振，原木上行乏力 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 【综合分析】 价格：本周日照3.9米中A辐射松价格750元/方，周环比平，太仓4米中A原木价格770元/方，环比平；供应：本周新西兰原木预计到 港量40.2万方，周环比+23.2%；针叶原木总库存294万方，周环比-1.01%；需求：本期13港原木日均出库量6.12万方，周环比-1.29%。 进口成本：本月辐射松CFR主力价114美金/JAS立方米，月环比-2%。 短期方面：成本端外盘价下行与人民币升值提供支撑，但需求端房建资金紧张、出库量疲软抑制反弹空 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].

CONTENTS 综述 01 供应 02 需求及库存 03 行情走势 04 其他 05 市场回顾 新西兰船期数据 国内主港库存 国内主港日均出货量 行情走势 现货价格行情 主流材种区域价差 树种、规格间价差 海运费 汇率 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 现货价格走势： 对于主流交割品3.9米30+辐射松，山东市场报价 745 元/方，较上周 持平，江苏市场报价 765 元/方，较上周 持平，目前两地区价差为 -20。山东地区3.9米40+辐射松报价 850 元/方，较上 周 持平；山东地区5.9米30+辐射松报价 785 元/方，较上周 持平。欧洲材云杉、冷杉在江苏市 场上的交易量较少，仍处于缺货状态。 截止到9月7日，9月从新西兰出发的船只总共有10条，其中有6条去往中国大陆，4条去往中国台湾、韩 国减载。9月出发的船只中，预计9月到港的约为10条，10月到港的有0条。预计9月到货121万方。 供应： 国泰君安期货·黑色与建材 原木周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 期货从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan F ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of logs remained stable. In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects. The log futures market showed a volatile pattern this week, and it is recommended to wait and see in trading strategies [5][10] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Log and wood - square spot prices: The prices of various types of logs and wood - squares in different ports were stable, with most showing 0.00% daily and weekly changes. Only the white pine wood - square in Rizhao had a 2.86% daily and weekly increase [3] - Futures data: For log futures contracts, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, the closing price of LG2509 decreased by 2.0, the trading volume decreased by 4070, and the open interest decreased by 2361 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - Spot price: Log spot prices remained stable. From August 18th - 24th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China increased by 1.90% compared to the previous week. From August 25th - 31st, 13 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 12 ports in China, a 63% increase compared to the previous week. The ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers from New Zealand to China decreased by 16.67% year - on - year [5][8] - Futures price: The November contract fluctuated upwards, with a closing price of 823 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 3 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day [9] - Logic analysis: In the short term, there is a weak balance between cost support and demand differentiation. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply contraction in New Zealand, the intensity of real - estate policies, and the implementation rhythm of infrastructure projects [10] - Strategies: For unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures related to log prices, including the prices of different types of logs and wood - squares in different ports, import log CFR prices, New Zealand log shipments to China, port log inventory structures, and other data [15][16][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the log spot market was basically stable, port inventories decreased, and the outbound volume was stable. Spot prices rose due to increased inquiries from spot - futures traders. The 5.9 - meter medium A log market price is 790 - 800 yuan/m³, and the 5.9 - meter small A log market price is 730 - 740 yuan/m³. The futures delivery cost is about 820 - 830 yuan/m³. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, the log warehouse receipt volume has increased significantly, and the futures price is under pressure and is expected to run weakly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A has a spot price of 750 yuan/m³, 5.9 - meter medium A is 790 yuan/m³, 3.9 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 5.9 - meter small A is 730 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 770 yuan/m³, 6 - meter medium A is 800 yuan/m³, 4 - meter small A is 720 yuan/m³, and 6 - meter small A is 750 yuan/m³ [4]. Outer - disk Quotation - The outer - disk quotation for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is 113 - 117 dollars/JAS cubic meter, with a 6 - dollar increase compared to the 110 - 111 dollars/JAS cubic meter in June [4]. Futures Price - The LG2511 contract has a current price of 815 yuan/m³, a decrease of 8.5 yuan compared to the previous price. The LG2509 contract has a current price of 801 yuan/m³, a decrease of 3.5 yuan compared to the previous price [4]. Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood squares remains at 1270 yuan. In Jiangsu, it has increased from 1260 yuan to 1280 yuan [4]. Supply (Import Volume) - In June 2025, the import volume of New Zealand logs was 167.3 (in ten thousand m³), North American logs was 9.5 (in ten thousand m³), and European logs was 19 (in ten thousand m³). The shipping volume from New Zealand to China from August 4th - 10th was 26 (in ten thousand JASm³) [4]. Inventory - On August 15th, the total inventory was 306 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong inventory at 185 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 8 (in ten thousand m³). The inventory has been decreasing compared to previous periods [4]. Demand (Daily Outbound Volume) - On August 15th, the daily outbound volume was 6.33 (in ten thousand m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 3.59 (in ten thousand m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.32 (in ten thousand m³). The outbound volume has been relatively stable [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, logs showed characteristics of "stable spot prices, rising overseas prices, and falling inventories." Spot prices remained flat, while overseas CFR prices increased, pushing up the inverted import profit. Port inventories decreased, and the supply arrival volume dropped sharply, intensifying the short - term supply interruption risk. The demand side showed a "not - so - slack season" situation. Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend, but for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply [6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Taicang was 780 yuan/cubic meter, both remaining flat week - on - week. - **Supply**: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs was 190,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 60%. The total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 2% [6]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Considering low inventories, cost support, and the shortage of deliverable goods, it is expected that next week's spot prices will still be stable with a slight upward trend. However, for futures in the long - term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and the recovery of supply. Aggressive investors can slightly short against the previous high. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7][8] Core Logic Analysis - Not provided Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - In July 2025, the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs decreased by 6 compared with June, and the total shipment volume decreased by 2%. The shipment volume to China increased by 5%. - From August 9 - 15, 2025, a total of 13 ships with 500,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 3 ships and 130,000 cubic meters. - From August 11 - 17, 2025, the expected number of arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China was 7, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 53%. The total arrival volume was about 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 286,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 60% [16][17]. Log Inventory - As of August 8, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.08 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.84%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.52 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The North American log inventory was 150,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The spruce/fir inventory remained flat week - on - week. - As of August 8, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong decreased by 24,000 cubic meters compared with the previous period, that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 24,000 cubic meters, that at 3 ports in Fujian decreased by 28,644 cubic meters, that at 2 ports in Hebei decreased by 1,000 cubic meters, the inventory at Dongguan Port in Guangdong decreased by 5,000 cubic meters, and the inventory at Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [20]. Log Demand - As of August 8, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, remaining flat week - on - week. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong increased by 1.96% week - on - week, while that at 3 ports in Jiangsu decreased by 2.59% week - on - week. - As of August 12, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 58.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.27 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the housing construction project fund availability rate increased by 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [25]. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Rizhao, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 5.06% year - on - year. In Taicang, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 780 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and down 3.70% year - on - year. In Rizhao, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs was 1,150 yuan/cubic meter, remaining flat week - on - week and up 1.77% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/fir timber in the Shandong market was 1,750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market was 1,690 yuan/cubic meter [37]. - **Imported Log Costs**: In August 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs was 116 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 US dollars per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 2 euros per cubic meter compared with the previous month. The increase in overseas prices in August led to a decrease in traders' willingness to take delivery, and the actual transactions were average [42].

Market Overview - The price of A-grade radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 750 CNY/m³, while at Taicang Port, the price increased by 10 CNY/m³ to 780 CNY/m³ [1] - The price of 11.8m spruce logs at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1150 CNY/m³ [1] - The average daily outbound volume of logs nationwide is 64,200 m³, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.18% and a year-on-year increase of 35.73% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of incoming New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China decreased to 7 vessels, down by 8 vessels or 53% week-on-week [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports was approximately 190,000 m³, a decrease of 286,000 m³ or 60% from the previous week [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures indicates that the current market prices are stable, with expected reductions in log arrivals, leading to manageable supply pressure and increased stocking intentions from processing plants [2] - Ruida Futures notes that port inventories are at a neutral level for the year, with external prices providing cost support, and overall downstream demand for logs is gradually recovering [2]

Core Insights - The successful completion of the LG2507 futures contract's delivery marks a significant milestone for the original wood futures market, validating the contract rules and regulatory framework [1] - The contract operated for 169 trading days, with a total trading volume of 4.34 million lots and a transaction value of 321.33 billion yuan [1] Delivery Details - In July, 1,281 lots were paired and delivered, including 1,230 lots through rolling delivery and 51 lots through one-time delivery, equivalent to 115,290 cubic meters of original wood [2] - The delivery settlement price ranged from 801 yuan to 828.5 yuan per cubic meter, totaling approximately 9.53 million yuan [2] - The delivery involved 769 lots via truck delivery and 512 lots through standard warehouse receipts, engaging multiple buyers and sellers without any delivery defaults [2] Industry Response - Shandong Tengnuo Wood Industry Co., Ltd. has proactively stocked up for the peak season, completing 60 lots of delivery, and noted a rise in market prices for original wood [3] - The company highlighted that the futures market provides a new procurement channel and a tool for hedging against rising raw material prices, enhancing factory yield and profit margins [3] - Jiangsu Huihong International Group utilized the LG2507 contract for sell hedging, completing 85 lots of delivery, which helped stabilize their revenue curve [4] Operational Efficiency - Taicang Xinhai Port Development Co., Ltd. completed 425 lots of delivery, implementing a coordinated approach to ensure smooth operations during the delivery process [5] - The company achieved an average delivery efficiency of 20 minutes per lot, even during high-temperature conditions, earning customer recognition [5] Quality Assurance - Zhongli Inspection Co., Ltd. emphasized the rigorous quality standards and processes in the original wood futures delivery, promoting transparency and trust between buyers and sellers [6] - The introduction of digital and intelligent inspection methods has enhanced the objectivity and traceability of quality assessments, supporting the standardization and efficiency of trade [6] - Market participants noted a strong willingness among industry clients to engage in delivery, prompting the Dalian Commodity Exchange to enhance services and training to ensure smooth delivery operations [6]