原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月24日 日 295.00 293.00 曹剑兰 | | | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 11月21日 | 11月20日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 768.5 | 772.0 | -3.5 | -0.45% | | | 原木2603 | 777.5 | 787.5 | -10.0 | -1.27% | | | 原木2605 | 793.5 | 801.0 | -7.5 | -0.94% | | | 01-03价差 | -9.0 | -15.5 | 6.5 | | | | 01-05价差 | -25.0 | -29.0 | 4.0 | | | | 03合约基差 | -27.5 | -37.5 | 10.0 | | | | 01合约基左 | -18.5 | -22.0 | 3.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 690.0 | 690.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 7 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable this week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of October 26, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 32 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 1770,000 cubic meters of logs will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 24, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. - As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 0.4%, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) decreased by 2.6%, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 10.5%. The US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate down 0.1% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% [6][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data**: As of October 26, 40 ships departed from New Zealand in October, 32 to mainland China and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. About 20 ships are expected to arrive in October and 20 in November. The estimated arrival volume in October is 1.77 million cubic meters [5][8]. - **Detailed Ship Information**: The report provides detailed information on 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, including departure time, load capacity, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [10]. Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment Volume**: As of the week of October 24, Lanshan Port's daily average shipment volume was 23,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 2,100 cubic meters), and Taicang Port's was 12,200 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 3,100 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 351,900 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 40,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port's was about 350,800 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 22,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 143,000 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0895 million cubic meters, a decrease of 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. Market Trends - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: As of October 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5.0% from the previous week. The backwardation spread widened significantly this week [19]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: The spot prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The report also presents the regional spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications, as well as the spreads between different tree species and specifications [22][23]. Other - **Other Price Influencing Factors**: As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1983.00 points, a decrease of 8 points (- 0.4%) from the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 855 points, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, an increase of 10.5% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.118, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% to 1.747 [6][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the log spot market this week showed a weakly stable pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with prices under pressure." The cost of imported logs has increased, providing rigid support to the futures market, but the spot market is weakening, and the basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The demand is limited, and the impact of new US tariffs on export orders may be concentrated in early November. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The log spot market fundamentals are in a weakly stable pattern. The arrival volume at ports increased by 5% week - on - week to 438,000 cubic meters, 13 - port inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.92 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 10.3% to 63,200 cubic meters. The main port price of radiata pine remained flat at 760 - 780 yuan/cubic meter, knot - free wood dropped by 20 yuan/cubic meter, and spruce rose by 30 yuan due to shortage. The November overseas offer increased by 5 dollars to 120 dollars [6] - **Logic Analysis**: In November, the import cost of New Zealand radiata pine increased by about 40 yuan/cubic meter, supporting the futures market. However, the spot price of knot - free wood has fallen, and the market expects the general wood to follow suit. The basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still high, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains. The new US tariffs may impact export orders in November, and the demand is limited. For the 2501 contract, if the spot price falls below 750 yuan, the seller's hedging window will open [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Cost: The import cost of New Zealand radiata pine in November has increased, providing support to the futures market, but the spot price is weakening, and the basis is expected to change [6] - Inventory: The 13 - port inventory is still at a high level, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains after the end of the low - price sales in Jiangsu [6] - Demand: The new US tariffs may impact export orders, and the consumption intensity is limited due to the combination of "improved funds + reduced construction starts" in housing and non - housing projects [6] - Delivery: For the 2501 contract, the cost of registered warehouse receipts is around 810 - 820 yuan/cubic meter, and the futures price is at a premium. If the spot price falls, the seller's hedging window will open [6] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: From October 18 - 24, 2025, 11 ships with 410,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week. 8 ships with 310,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters. From October 20 - 26, 2025, 12 ships with about 438,000 cubic meters of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters week - on - week [17] - **Log Inventory**: As of October 17, the total log inventory in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American log inventory remained unchanged at 90,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [20] - **Log Demand**: As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters week - on - week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased, but the number of projects decreased. The capital improvement was concentrated in the southwest and east regions and large - scale central enterprises [25] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port remained at 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce in Rizhao Port rose by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan/cubic meter due to shortage [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber in Shandong was 1,280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [38] - **Import Log Costs**: In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 1 dollar to 115 dollars/cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce decreased by 3 euros to 125 euros/cubic meter. Some foreign merchants reported the November CFR price of New Zealand radiata pine at 120 dollars/cubic meter, an increase from October [44]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the log industry is that it is expected to run strongly [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the log market remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly due to low valuation, with the lowest delivery cost of log futures being 810 - 820 yuan/m³, while the supply shows a slight increase and the demand is neutral, and the inventory situation is also neutral [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%, which has a bearish impact on the market [3][27] - **Demand**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. Due to the Sino - US trade war, there is an expected increase in the external market quotation of logs, and the demand is neutral [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%, and the inventory situation is neutral [3][36] - **Valuation**: The current lowest delivery cost of log futures is 810 - 820 yuan/m³, with a low valuation, which is bullish for the market [3] - **Investment View**: The fundamentals remain stable, and log futures are expected to run strongly [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For arbitrage, a 11 - 1 positive spread is recommended, and attention should be paid to the domestic demand situation [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Log futures fluctuated significantly. After a sharp decline, the futures price was lower than the lowest delivery cost, and the spot price was firm with the inventory not reaching the inflection point, so it is expected to run strongly. The log futures contract's total open interest was 21,452 lots as of October 17th, a 9.2% increase from the previous week, and the open interest of the main contract 2601 was 14,247 lots, an 89.5% increase from the previous week [6][12] - **Spot Market**: As of October 17th, the spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu increased to varying degrees. In Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/760/880 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/980 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/820 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 760/800/860 yuan/m³ [16] Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In August 2025, China's total coniferous log imports were 1.725 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.7%. Imports from New Zealand were 1.306 million cubic meters, with the year - on - year change turning from an increase to a decrease, a 6.5% decline, and a month - on - month decrease of 10.4%. Radiata pine imports were 1.297 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.2% [23] - **New Zealand's Log Shipment and Delivery**: In September 2025, New Zealand's expected log shipments to China, Japan, South Korea, and India were 1.766 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%, and the number of ships was 46, a month - on - month increase of 4.55% [3][27] - **Domestic Log Inventory**: As of October 10th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.55%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.46 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; North American timber inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week; spruce/fir inventory was 190,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. In terms of provinces, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1,892,000 cubic meters, a 6.65% increase from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 880,900 cubic meters, a 3.89% increase from the previous week [36] - **Domestic Log Outbound Volume**: From October 6th to 12th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 34,400 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous week, and that at Jiangsu ports was 17,900 cubic meters, a 31.94% decrease from the previous week [38] - **Wooden Square Data**: As of October 17th, the wooden square prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were both 1270 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was 16 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week, and that in Jiangsu was - 14.6 yuan/m³, also unchanged from the previous week [41]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Cost - side factors like the decline in the outer - market price and RMB appreciation provide support, but weak demand due to tight housing construction funds and low出库量 limits the rebound space. The increase in New Zealand's arrival volume may lead to a slight accumulation of inventory, with regional differentiation continuing [6]. - Medium - term: New Zealand's winter production reduction (expected decline in shipments from September to November) may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on the implementation of infrastructure projects and the effectiveness of real - estate policies. If housing construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, and prices will face pressure [6]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Price: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a flat week - on - week change; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A log in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also with a flat week - on - week change [6]. - Supply: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 23.2%; the total inventory of coniferous logs is 2.94 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01% [6]. - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29% [6]. - Import cost: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2% [6]. Strategies - Single - side: Considering low inventory, cost support, but weak demand, the market is expected to stabilize next week. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can make a small - scale long - position layout [7]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipments: In August 2025, the number of departing vessels was about 44, a month - on - month decrease of 3, and the total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. Among them, 35 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [17]. - From September 8th to September 14th, 2025, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 6 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 120%; the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, an increase of 232,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 136% [17]. Log Inventory - By material: As of September 5th, the total inventory of domestic logs by material is 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05%; the North American log inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.00% [21]. - By province: As of September 5th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,813,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 915,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 85,717 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,401 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei is 21,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong is 105,000 cubic meters, an increase of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi is 0 [21]. Log Demand - As of September 5th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 33,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 21,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85% [26]. - As of September 9th, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [26]. Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25% [34]. - Jiangsu: This week, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94% [34]. - Shandong: This week, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and an increase of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to last year, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [34]. Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is also 1260 yuan/cubic meter [39]. - Spruce/white pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1800 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [39]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month [45]. - Spruce outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [45].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of mainstream delivery products of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained flat compared to last week, and European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market were still in short supply [4]. - As of September 7, there were 10 ships departing from New Zealand in September, with 6 going to mainland China and 4 going to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that about 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week, and that of Taicang Port decreased by 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 0.67 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][12]. - As of the week of September 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [6]. - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 decreased by 1.1% compared to last week, and the monthly spread tended to narrow [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - The prices of mainstream radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 745 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 765 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong was 850 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong was 785 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volume and were out of stock [4]. Supply - As of September 7, 10 ships departed from New Zealand in September, with 6 bound for mainland China and 4 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea. It is expected that 10 ships will arrive in September and 0 in October, with an expected arrival volume of 1.21 million cubic meters in September [5]. - Provided the specific shipping schedule data of New Zealand logs, including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 1.68 million cubic meters (down 0.08 million cubic meters week - on - week), and that of Taicang Port was 1.12 million cubic meters (down 0.03 million cubic meters week - on - week) [6][12]. - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.1279 million cubic meters (down 0.0224 million cubic meters week - on - week), Taicang Port's was about 0.4407 million cubic meters (up 0.0111 million cubic meters week - on - week), Xinminzhou Port's was about 0.3726 million cubic meters (up 0.0216 million cubic meters week - on - week), and Jiangdu Port's was about 0.1021 million cubic meters (down 0.017 million cubic meters week - on - week). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0433 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0067 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][12]. Market Trends - As of September 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 798 yuan/cubic meter, a 1.1% decrease from last week. The monthly spread tended to narrow, with the 11 - 01 monthly spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 11 - 03 at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 01 - 03 at - 6 yuan/cubic meter [18]. Price and Spread - Provided the spot price data of logs and downstream construction timber, showing that most prices remained stable compared to last week [21][23]. - Presented the regional price differences of mainstream timber species between Shandong and Jiangsu, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [24][26]. - Showed the price differences between different tree species and specifications, such as the difference between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [38][39]. Other - Analyzed other price - influencing factors, including freight rates and exchange rates. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 6.7% week - on - week, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) increased by 1.8%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) decreased by 3.2%. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.23% week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% [52][53].