原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月6日 曹剑兰 关注微信公众号 万/立方米 山东 185.20 181 3 3.9 2.15% 江苏 52.10 61.52 -94 -15.30% 需求:日均出库量 (周慶) 12月26日 12月19日 单位 涨跌 涨跌幅 地区 5.83 中国 6.32 -0.49 -8% 万/立方米 2.79 -0.55 -16% 3.34 山东 江苏 2.52 -3% 2 44 -0.08 原木日均出库量(万方) 原木王要港口库存(万方) 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/111/112/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/110/111/112/11/1 = 2022 = 2023 = =2024 · 2025 =2022 -2023 - 2024 2025 辐射松3.8中A现货价(元/立方米) 辐射松4米中A:CFR价(美元/JAS立方米) 220 = 2020 -2022 2021 860 2025 2023 2024 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The overall view of the log market is bearish. The spot price of logs has been continuously declining, the overseas market price has also significantly dropped, and the near - month contracts have declined due to delivery pressure before the delivery month. The influencing factors are as follows: the supply is neutral, the demand is bearish, the inventory is neutral, and the valuation is neutral [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to 2.013 million cubic meters in October [4]. - **Demand**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 3.03% [4]. - **Valuation**: Currently, the log price is lower than the delivery cost, with a low valuation [4]. - **Investment View**: The overall view is bearish. The trading strategy for both unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. - **Main Data Summary**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 2.16% to 749; the total position increased by 7.36% to 25,666; the position of the main contract decreased by 4.96% to 14,519; the total inventory decreased by 3.13% to 287,700 cubic meters; the Shandong inventory increased by 0.45% to 199,500 cubic meters; the Jiangsu inventory decreased by 12.77% to 74,200 cubic meters; the total outbound volume increased by 8.65%; the New Zealand weekly shipment decreased by 30% [6]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: Log futures declined this week. The reasons are the significant decline in spot prices during the off - season, which has fallen below the annual lowest level, and the approaching delivery month of the 01 contract, which has a certain bearish impact due to delivery pressure [8]. - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the total open interest of log futures contracts was 25,666 lots, a 7.35% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main log futures contract was 14,519 lots, a 4.96% decrease from the previous week [11]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 12, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/850 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 710/770/940 yuan/m³. The prices of Jiangsu radiata pine (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 670/730/800 yuan/m³; (5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 720/760/840 yuan/m³ [14]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Log Supply and Demand - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [19]. - **Shipment Volume**: In November 2025, the number of New Zealand log departure vessels was about 48, a month - on - month decrease of 6, and the total shipment was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease compared to October. From November 29 to December 5, 2025, there were 7 vessels departing from New Zealand ports, with a total shipment of 260,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels directly shipped 260,000 cubic meters to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week [25]. - **Import Cost and Profit**: As of December 2025, the CFR quote of radiata pine was between 112 - 119 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, and the import profit was about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price in New Zealand port warehouses was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about 111 US dollars/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [28]. - **Inventory**: As of December 5th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a 3.03% decrease from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong ports increased by 0.45% to 1.995 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 12.77% to 742,260 cubic meters [31]. - **Outbound Volume**: From December 1st to December 7th, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 66,600 cubic meters, an 8.65% increase from the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 33,900 cubic meters, an 11.51% increase from the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 27,100 cubic meters, a 3.44% increase from the previous week [35]. - **Timber Price and Processing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the timber price in Shandong was 1,220 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/m³; the timber price in Jiangsu was 1,240 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/m³. The processing profit in Shandong was - 18.5 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 14.5 yuan/m³; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 17 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/m³ [37].

供需双弱，关注贸易制裁下运费上涨风险 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 【策略】 1.单边：供需双弱，成本支撑，建议观望为主。激进投资者可少量布局多单。 2.套利：观望 3.期权：观望。 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 基本面：现货辐射松山东760元/方、江苏780元/方连续两周持平，同比仍低5-9%；云杉山东1150元/方年内高位。本周到港45.6万 方环比+79%，13港总库存299万方环比+4.6%，日均出库5.7万方环比-12.7%，南强北弱、出库放缓，建筑资金到位率59.4%微降，现 货呈"高供给、累库存、弱需求"的稳态偏强格局。 【逻辑分析】 供应方面，到港量预计维持正常偏多水平， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure has been alleviated but the oversupply situation remains. The demand support is limited, and the inventory is increasing, with radiata pine inventory being the core pressure. The cost of the outer - market still has a downward pressure. In the short term, the log valuation will remain at the bottom - oscillating state, and the marginal impact of overseas shipment volume changes and domestic construction demand recovery progress on valuation needs to be concerned [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of New Zealand logs decreased by 110,000 cubic meters, and the arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports dropped to 395,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26%), but the oversupply pattern was not reversed [3] - Demand: The提货 demand for knot - free timber drove the daily average outbound volume at Shandong ports to increase by 18.81% week - on - week, and the overall outbound volume at 13 ports increased by 5.57%. However, the capital availability rate at construction sites slightly decreased, and the demand for housing construction and non - housing construction projects was differentiated, with limited overall demand support [3] - Inventory: The total inventory increased to 2.93 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.74%), and the radiata pine inventory accounted for over 80% and continued to accumulate, being the core of inventory pressure [3] - Cost: The outer - market quotation of radiata pine by Pacific was lowered to $116, but the sentiment of traders to receive ships was flat, and the outer - market price still had a downward pressure [3] 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see, with range - trading as the main approach - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage - Options: Wait and see [5] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu are at a relatively low historical level, with a certain safety margin in valuation. Although the outer - market price increased slightly by 1% week - on - week, the high domestic inventory pressure blocked the transmission of the outer - market price increase, making it difficult to support the restoration of spot valuation. The structural support on the demand side can only slow down the price decline, and factors such as high radiata pine inventory and cautious purchasing by traders suppress the upward movement of valuation. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the log valuation will maintain a bottom - oscillating state [4] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log shipment volume: From November 8 - 14, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 280,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 3 ships and 110,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 6 ships with 250,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 120,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] - Arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the expected arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 12 ships, a decrease of 4 ships week - on - week, and the total arrival volume was about 395,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 136,000 cubic meters week - on - week [12] 3.3.2 Log Inventory - By material: As of November 7, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.93 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, an increase of 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week [16] - By province: As of November 7, the total inventory at 3 Shandong ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Jiangsu ports increased by 32,000 cubic meters, at 3 Fujian ports increased by 133 cubic meters, at 2 Hebei ports decreased by 2,000 cubic meters, and at Dongguan Port in Guangdong increased by 20,000 cubic meters [16] 3.3.3 Log Demand - Outbound volume: The daily average outbound volume was 66,300 cubic meters, an increase of 3,500 cubic meters week - on - week. Shandong had a significant increase, while Jiangsu, Fujian, and Guangdong showed decreases [22] - Construction site capital availability: As of November 4, the capital availability rate at sample construction sites was 59.82%, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. However, the capital improvement has not been fully transmitted to the log procurement end, and downstream procurement is still mainly for rigid demand replenishment [22] 3.3.4 Log Prices - Radiata pine: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port was 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% [26][29] - Spruce: In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter, 20 - cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port was 1,180 yuan/cubic meter, remaining the same as last week [29] - Downstream timber: The mainstream transaction price of 3000 * 40 * 90 radiata pine timber was 1,260 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and Jiangsu markets, and that of 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine timber was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter in Shandong and 1,680 yuan/cubic meter in Jiangsu [34] 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter from last month [40] - Spruce outer - market price: In November 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter, 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter from last month [40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation, and the downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, while the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery on the demand side needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Fundamental Analysis - In November, New Zealand's timber shipment volume decreased seasonally compared to October, and this week's direct shipment volume to China decreased by 108,000 cubic meters. However, the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 domestic ports increased by 80% to 391,000 cubic meters, and later arrivals will be concentrated in Shandong. In addition, Jiangsu ports have tightened inspections on imported Japanese cryptomeria, and it is expected that the supply of Japanese cryptomeria will be tightened. The overall demand is weak, with the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports decreasing by 4.81% week - on - week. Only some regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong saw an increase in outbound volume. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased slightly, and there was no obvious boost in demand for both housing construction and non - housing construction projects. The inventory continued the slight destocking trend, with the total inventory at 2.97 million cubic meters (a 1.98% week - on - week decrease). The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber decreased, while the inventory of spruce/fir remained flat, and the overall inventory pressure was moderately relieved [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6] Core Logic Analysis - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation. The radiata pine price in Rizhao, Shandong is firm at 750 yuan per cubic meter, while the price in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 740 yuan per cubic meter. The downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In December, the foreign market price decreased by 2% month - on - month, and the stronger RMB increased the purchasing power of traders, partially offsetting the cost pressure on the supply side. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, with Russia's forestry output potentially decreasing by 20% - 30% and Canadian enterprises reducing production temporarily. Meanwhile, the reforestation in countries such as China will optimize the long - term supply structure. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery [5] Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 ships compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 48%. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters of logs left the New Zealand ports for shipment, a decrease of 8 ships and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. In November, the monthly shipment volume decreased by 4 ships compared to October, showing seasonal characteristics but with a limited decline [13] Log Inventory - As of November 28th, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.50%. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week. By province, as of November 28th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,986,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 850,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 52,478 cubic meters, an increase of 21,511 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16] Log Demand - As of November 28th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 30,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 5,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.32%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,200 cubic meters, an increase of 2,600 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 11.02%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 2,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.24%. As of December 2nd, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.49%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.59%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 54.02%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [20] Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter, or 5.06%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter compared to last week, or 1.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan per cubic meter, or 7.50%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter, or 9.26% [24] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and the same in the Jiangsu market. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,850 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [28] Import Log Costs - As of the time of publication, the December foreign market price has moved down compared to the November quotation, with the quotation range being 110 - 116. Some foreign merchants have continuously reduced prices for multiple rounds, and traders tend to expect the foreign market price to be in the 112 - 113 range [34]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Last week, log futures maintained a low - level oscillation, and spot prices declined. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remained resilient. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. In general, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On November 21st, the main LG2601 contract of log futures closed at 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of some other specifications of radiata pine logs decreased, while the prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was also 750 yuan per cubic meter [2][3] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 21st was 7.113 yuan, and the import theoretical cost (calculated with a 15% over - length) was 811.02 yuan, showing little change compared with the previous day [2] Supply - In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54. From November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13 ships, a 30% increase from the previous week, and the arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, a 48% increase [2][3] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 295 million cubic meters, a 0.68% increase from the previous week. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.04% to 195.4 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's inventory increased by 1.46% [2][3] Demand - As of November 14th, the daily average log out - bound volume was 6.56 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from the previous week. Demand decreased month - on - month [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - Recently, the spot price of logs has been weak and has been adjusted downward. The supply-side arrival volume continues to recover, putting significant pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price. Overall, in the context of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 18, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2603, and LG2605 were 785, 794, and 808 yuan/cubic meter respectively, down 0.51%, 0.63%, and 0.19% from the previous day. The prices of some specifications of radiata pine logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port decreased, with the largest decline of 3.41% for large radiata pine in Rizhao Port. The prices of radiata pine 4m medium A and spruce 11.8m in the outer market remained unchanged [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 18, the RMB against the US dollar exchange rate was 7.113 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day, and the import theoretical cost was 810.99 yuan, up 0.91 yuan from the previous day [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 13.99% from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, up 17.39% from the previous month [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 14, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 2.04% and 1.46% respectively [1][2] Demand: Average Daily Outbound Volume - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The demand in China and Shandong decreased by 1% and 3% respectively, while the demand in Jiangsu increased by 7% [1][2] Forecast of Arrival Ships - From November 17 - 23, 2025, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 3 ships from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 30%; the total arrival volume is about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 48% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable this week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of October 26, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 32 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 1770,000 cubic meters of logs will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 24, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. - As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 0.4%, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) decreased by 2.6%, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 10.5%. The US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate down 0.1% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% [6][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data**: As of October 26, 40 ships departed from New Zealand in October, 32 to mainland China and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. About 20 ships are expected to arrive in October and 20 in November. The estimated arrival volume in October is 1.77 million cubic meters [5][8]. - **Detailed Ship Information**: The report provides detailed information on 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, including departure time, load capacity, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [10]. Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment Volume**: As of the week of October 24, Lanshan Port's daily average shipment volume was 23,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 2,100 cubic meters), and Taicang Port's was 12,200 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 3,100 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 351,900 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 40,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port's was about 350,800 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 22,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 143,000 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0895 million cubic meters, a decrease of 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. Market Trends - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: As of October 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5.0% from the previous week. The backwardation spread widened significantly this week [19]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: The spot prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The report also presents the regional spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications, as well as the spreads between different tree species and specifications [22][23]. Other - **Other Price Influencing Factors**: As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1983.00 points, a decrease of 8 points (- 0.4%) from the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 855 points, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, an increase of 10.5% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.118, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% to 1.747 [6][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the log spot market this week showed a weakly stable pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with prices under pressure." The cost of imported logs has increased, providing rigid support to the futures market, but the spot market is weakening, and the basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The demand is limited, and the impact of new US tariffs on export orders may be concentrated in early November. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The log spot market fundamentals are in a weakly stable pattern. The arrival volume at ports increased by 5% week - on - week to 438,000 cubic meters, 13 - port inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.92 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 10.3% to 63,200 cubic meters. The main port price of radiata pine remained flat at 760 - 780 yuan/cubic meter, knot - free wood dropped by 20 yuan/cubic meter, and spruce rose by 30 yuan due to shortage. The November overseas offer increased by 5 dollars to 120 dollars [6] - **Logic Analysis**: In November, the import cost of New Zealand radiata pine increased by about 40 yuan/cubic meter, supporting the futures market. However, the spot price of knot - free wood has fallen, and the market expects the general wood to follow suit. The basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still high, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains. The new US tariffs may impact export orders in November, and the demand is limited. For the 2501 contract, if the spot price falls below 750 yuan, the seller's hedging window will open [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Cost: The import cost of New Zealand radiata pine in November has increased, providing support to the futures market, but the spot price is weakening, and the basis is expected to change [6] - Inventory: The 13 - port inventory is still at a high level, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains after the end of the low - price sales in Jiangsu [6] - Demand: The new US tariffs may impact export orders, and the consumption intensity is limited due to the combination of "improved funds + reduced construction starts" in housing and non - housing projects [6] - Delivery: For the 2501 contract, the cost of registered warehouse receipts is around 810 - 820 yuan/cubic meter, and the futures price is at a premium. If the spot price falls, the seller's hedging window will open [6] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: From October 18 - 24, 2025, 11 ships with 410,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week. 8 ships with 310,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters. From October 20 - 26, 2025, 12 ships with about 438,000 cubic meters of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters week - on - week [17] - **Log Inventory**: As of October 17, the total log inventory in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American log inventory remained unchanged at 90,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [20] - **Log Demand**: As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters week - on - week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased, but the number of projects decreased. The capital improvement was concentrated in the southwest and east regions and large - scale central enterprises [25] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port remained at 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce in Rizhao Port rose by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan/cubic meter due to shortage [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber in Shandong was 1,280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [38] - **Import Log Costs**: In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 1 dollar to 115 dollars/cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce decreased by 3 euros to 125 euros/cubic meter. Some foreign merchants reported the November CFR price of New Zealand radiata pine at 120 dollars/cubic meter, an increase from October [44]