1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the demand for logs rebounds, the port departure volume increases, the supply remains at a normal level, the port inventory is depleted, and combined with the increase in shipping freight, the log price rebounds [5]. - In the medium - term, the supply will increase, the demand will recover slowly, and the port inventory may be depleted from a high level. The log supply is expected to maintain a normal level referring to the shipping schedule rhythm, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down the log demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend - The market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness, and the positive spread widens [3]. 3.2 Spot Price Trend - For 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 860 yuan/m³ and 810 yuan/m³ respectively compared to last week [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 780 yuan/m³, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 780 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 3.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.9%) to 720 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 730 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong remained unchanged at 950 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/m³ (-2.3%) to 850 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/m³ (1.3%) to 810 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 790 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine, the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/m³ (2.7%) to 750 yuan/m³, and the price in Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/m³ (-1.3%) to 750 yuan/m³ [7]. - For 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 1150 yuan/m³ [7]. 3.3 Supply - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows multiple shipments with different volumes and expected arrival dates at various Chinese and Korean ports from March 12 to March 27, 2026 [19]. - The arrival volume of logs at Chinese ports is increasing, as shown by the comparison of arrival volume data from 2023 to 2026 at ports such as China's main ports, Lanshan Port, Taicang W万方 Port, and Xinminzhou Port [20]. 3.4 Demand and Inventory - In terms of port inventory, the total inventory at Lanshan Port decreased by 2.40 million m³ (-9.4%), the total inventory at Xinminzhou Port decreased by 2.70 million m³ (-11.3%), the total inventory at Jiangdu Port decreased by 2.61 million m³ (-27.0%), and the total inventory at Taicang Port decreased by 0.73 million m³ (-1.4%) compared to last week [22]. - In terms of daily average shipment volume, the total shipment volume at Jiangdu Port increased by 0.07 million m³, and the total shipment volume at Taicang Port increased by 0.58 million m³ [22]. 3.5 Other Price - Directly Affecting Factors - The dry bulk BDI decreased by 25 (-1.2%) to 2031 [26]. - The handy - size BHSI decreased by 31 (-4.2%) to 713 [26]. - The crude oil BDTI increased by 775 (26.2%) to 3,737 [26]. - The SCFI comprehensive index increased by 120 (7.0%) to 1,827 [26]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate increased by 0.013 (0.2%) to 6.914 [26]. - The USD/NZD exchange rate increased by 0.017 (1.0%) to 1.742 [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased this week. The delivery cost of the cheapest deliverable log in Shandong for the 05 contract is around 815 yuan/m³, and the current futures price above 820 yuan/m³ has priced in the expected increase in April and May to some extent. If the war between the US and Iran continues to drive up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be gradually confirmed. The log futures showed a significant increase in positions and broke through the previous high this week, and the market tends to the "strong expectation" logic. Considering the above, one can consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some spot prices of logs in Shandong and Taicang decreased. The current futures price has priced in the expected increase in April and May. If the US - Iran war drives up oil prices, the "strong expectation" logic will be confirmed. The futures market is more inclined to the "strong expectation" logic and it's hard to falsify it before the 05 contract delivery. It's advisable to consider going long with strict stop - loss [3]. - Log futures showed significant increase in positions. As of March 20, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 17,765 lots, a 39.2% increase from last week; the position of the main contract was 12,485 lots, a 52% week - on - week increase [11]. - Some specifications of log spot prices decreased. As of March 19, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A radiata pine were 700/770/860 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, 3.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 730/780/810 yuan/m³; 5.9 - meter small/medium/large A were 760/800/870 yuan/m³ [15]. 3.2 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Log Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease and a 22.45% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% year - on - year decrease. - In December 2025, China imported about 1.3048 million cubic meters of coniferous logs from New Zealand, a 27.01% month - on - month decrease and a 13.02% year - on - year decrease. In 2025, the total import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% year - on - year increase [21]. 3.2.2 New Zealand Log Shipment and Dispatch Volume - From March 7 - 13, 2026, 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 1 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 0 - ship and 10,000 - cubic - meter decrease. - In the past four weeks, 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a 21 - ship and 820,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month. Among them, 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a 13 - ship and 500,000 - cubic - meter increase compared with the same period last month [25]. 3.2.3 Trade Profit - As of March 9, 2026, the CFR quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March was 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS cubic meters, a 5 - dollar increase from last month, and the quotation had relatively good transaction conditions [32]. 3.2.4 Domestic Log Inventory - As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 3.13 million cubic meters, a 4.68% week - on - week increase; radiata pine inventory was 2.51 million cubic meters, a 3.72% week - on - week increase; North American timber inventory was 260,000 cubic meters, an 8.33% week - on - week increase; spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a 10,000 - cubic - meter increase from last week. The total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1,955,000 cubic meters, a 1.82% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 910,800 cubic meters, a 12.25% increase from last week [35]. 3.2.5 Domestic Port Log Out - bound Volume - From March 2 - 8, the average daily out - bound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 33,300 cubic meters, a 455% increase from last week. Among them, the average daily out - bound volume in Shandong ports was 23,800 cubic meters, a 349.06% increase from last week; in Jiangsu ports, it was 7,000 cubic meters [38]. 3.2.6 Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,240 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was 1,310 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week; in Jiangsu, it was - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from last week [41]. 3.2.7 Downstream Situation - As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.9, a 0.5% month - on - month decrease; the Baltic Dry Index was 2,028, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the prices of some specifications of logs in Taicang area have declined. The main reasons are the weak demand in the spot market and the increase in the arrival volume. There is a possibility that the post - holiday spot price increase expectation will be falsified. However, due to the long - term trend of the US - Iran war, there is a strong upward expectation and certainty for the overseas log quotations. The existing overseas quotations have been raised to 119 - 122 US dollars/JASm³, equivalent to 805 - 825 yuan/m³ in spot size and 870 - 890 yuan/m³ in futures size. Although this quotation has been accepted by domestic traders, whether the significantly increased overseas quotations can be smoothly transmitted to the domestic market remains to be observed. The current price of the optimal delivery product 5.9 small A in Shandong area is 740 yuan/m³, equivalent to 800 yuan/m³ on the futures market, and the futures price has a certain discount. But the main contract LG2605 is still far from the delivery month, and the overall trading logic is dominated by expectations. In the past three years, the spot price of logs has a high probability of falling from March to May. In summary, the log futures price is affected by the "upward expectation of overseas quotations" and the "sluggish spot market", and there is no consistent trading theme. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 790 - 810. It is recommended to wait and see in terms of operation. The focus in the future should be on the implementation of overseas quotations and the spot price [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Some specifications of log prices in Taicang area have fallen, mainly due to weak spot market demand and increased arrival volume. The post - holiday price increase expectation may be false. Overseas log quotations have a strong upward expectation, but whether they can be transmitted to the domestic market is uncertain. The futures price has a discount, and the main contract is far from the delivery month. The trading logic is expectation - dominated. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the 790 - 810 range in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. Future focus should be on overseas quotation implementation and spot price [5]. - Log main data: The closing price of the main contract is 792.5, a decrease of 0.94% from the previous period; the total position is 12765, a decrease of 9.53%; the position of the main contract is 8209, a decrease of 11.72%. The total inventory is 313.3, an increase of 4.87%; Shandong inventory is 195.5, an increase of 1.82%; Jiangsu inventory is 91.1, an increase of 12.25%. The total outbound volume is 33, an increase of 455%; Shandong outbound volume is 24, an increase of 349.06%; Jiangsu outbound volume is 7. New Zealand's weekly shipping volume is 90, a decrease of 10%; weekly shipping volume is 350, a decrease of 7.89%; export profit is - 34, a decrease of 4.78. The New Zealand CFR quotation is 121, an increase of 7.08%; the spruce CFR quotation is 125, unchanged. The trader's import profit is - 46.5, a decrease of 13.29%; the processing profit is - 44.6, unchanged [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Log futures position: As of March 13, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts is 12765 lots, a decrease of 9.5% from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract is 8209 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 11.7% [12]. - Spot price: As of March 13, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 710/770/860 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 740/800/950 yuan/m³. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A radiata pine are 730/780/810 yuan/m³; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A are 780/810/870 yuan/m³ [16]. 3.3 Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Log import volume: In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [22]. - New Zealand log shipping and shipping volume: From March 7 - 13, 2026, a total of 12 ships with 450,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 9 ships with 340,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In the past four weeks, a total of 49 ships with 1.87 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, an increase of 21 ships and 820,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month. Among them, a total of 36 ships with 1.35 million cubic meters were directly shipped to China, an increase of 13 ships and 500,000 cubic meters compared with the same period last month [28]. - Trade profit: As of March 9, 2026, the overseas (CFR) quotation range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in March is 117 - 122 US dollars/JAS square, an increase of 5 US dollars/JAS square compared with last month, and the transaction of this quotation is relatively good [35]. - Domestic log inventory: As of March 6, the total domestic coniferous log inventory is 3.13 million cubic meters, an increase of 140,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 4.68%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.51 million cubic meters, an increase of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 3.72%; the North American timber inventory is 260,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 160,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports is 1,955,000 cubic meters, an increase of 1.82% from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports is 910,800 cubic meters, an increase of 12.25% from the previous week [40]. - Domestic port log outbound volume: From March 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China is 33,300 cubic meters, an increase of 455% from the previous week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports is 23,800 cubic meters, an increase of 349.06% from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports is 7,000 cubic meters [42]. - Wood square price and processing profit: As of March 15, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong is 1240 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the wood square price in Jiangsu is 1310 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Shandong is - 44.4 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu is - 5 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [45]. - Downstream: As of March 13, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate is 6.9, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; the Baltic Dry Index is 2028, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [49].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, demand shows a seasonal rebound, port inventories are likely to decline from high levels, spot prices will be stable with a slight upward trend, and spread positive arbitrage will operate [3] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in March, demand will recover slowly, and port inventories are expected to decline from high levels. Log supply will follow the shipping schedule and is expected to remain at a normal level. Weak real - estate new construction will continue to drag down log demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Short - term: demand seasonally rebounds, port inventories may decline from high levels, spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and spread positive arbitrage operates [3] - Medium - term: supply rises in March, demand recovers slowly, and port inventories may decline from high levels. Log supply follows the shipping schedule and is expected to be normal, while weak real - estate new construction drags down log demand [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different specifications of radiation pine and spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu, prices of some specifications have increased, such as 3.9 - meter 30 + radiation pine in Shandong rising by 2.7% and in Jiangsu by 1.3% compared to last week [7] 3.3 Price and Spread - Multiple price charts of different types of logs at different ports are presented, including radiation pine and spruce at ports like Rizhao and Taicang [9][10][16] 3.4 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - Three ships with log loads of 39,629.04 m³, 38,461.1 m³ and 35,192.04 m³ are expected to arrive at Chinese ports on March 18 and 21, 2026 [19] 3.5 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - Port inventories at multiple ports have increased, such as the total inventory at Lanshan Port increasing by 19.8% and at Xinminzhou Port increasing by 68.8%. However, the total shipment volume at some ports has decreased, like at Lanshan Port with a - 461.9% change [22] 3.6 Other Price Direct Influencing Factors - The dry bulk BDI decreased by 6.1%, the handy - sized BHSI increased by 6.6%, the crude oil BDTI increased by 54.1%, the SCFI comprehensive index increased by 11.7%. The USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.8% and the USD/NZD exchange rate increased by 2.2% [26]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a chemical research report on log market, specifically the Log Daily Report dated February 11, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Analysis - Log prices (daily) and wood square prices (daily) for different types of logs and wood squares at various ports are presented, with all prices showing 0.00% day - on - day and week - on - week changes [2] - Futures volume and price data for LG2603, LG2605, and LG2607 contracts are provided, including closing prices, changes, and volume/position changes [2] Group 3: Market Review - On February 10, the log spot market was stable. Prices of different grades of radiata pine logs in Rizhao remained unchanged [4] - The closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 777 yuan/cubic meter, up 5.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous trading day [5] Group 4: Important Information - In January 2026, 74 coniferous log ships arrived at 13 Chinese ports, a month - on - month decrease of 14.94%. The total arrival volume was about 166.81 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 12.80%. Among them, 45 ships were from New Zealand, with an arrival volume of about 147.45 million cubic meters, accounting for 88% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.69% [7] - From February 2 to February 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 5.15 million cubic meters, a 16.53% decrease from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 3.28 million cubic meters, a 15.68% decrease, and that at Jiangsu ports was 1.29 million cubic meters, an 18.87% decrease [7] Group 5: Logic Analysis - Supply pressure is increasing marginally; demand is dragged down by the Spring Festival off - season, with the average daily outbound volume decreasing by 16.53% month - on - month. The foreign market price in February increased by 3 - 5 US dollars, raising the procurement cost. The increase in supply and weak demand will suppress prices in the short term, but the rising cost forms a bottom support. Also, the low inventory buffers the supply shock. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and the post - festival demand resumption rhythm needs to be monitored [7] Group 6: Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - For arbitrage, take profit on the 3 - 5 reverse spread [8] - For options, wait and see [9] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing log and wood square prices, import CFR prices, port log inventory, and other related data [11][13][14]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The valuation of logs is relatively strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. However, the approaching Spring Festival leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand, so the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal, but the arrival volume at 13 domestic ports has decreased by 15% month - on - month to 185,000 cubic meters, still at a relatively low level. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the national daily average outbound volume has slightly decreased by 0.16%. However, the capital availability of construction sites has continuously improved, with the growth rate of housing construction projects leading, driving some projects to rush for work and stock up. There is regional demand differentiation, with an increase in outbound volume in Shandong and Fujian and a decline in Jiangsu. On the inventory side, the total port inventory has decreased by 2.81% month - on - month to 2.42 million cubic meters. The main timber species such as radiata pine are all in a state of inventory reduction, and the inventory in major ports such as Shandong and Jiangsu has generally decreased, with overall tight supply [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on last month's low point. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage of log 03 - 05. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Core Logic Analysis - The log valuation is strong this week with regional price differentiation. The support for the valuation comes from tight domestic arrivals, continuous inventory reduction, and a $3 increase in the February foreign market, which raises the procurement cost of traders. The suppressing factor is the approaching Spring Festival, which leads to a market shutdown and a temporary decline in demand. In the short term, there is a game between cost support and the off - season of demand, and the valuation lacks the momentum for continuous growth. Attention should be paid to the recovery of post - holiday resumption demand and the increase in arrivals from New Zealand [7]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China in January 2026 is 933,000 cubic meters, a 39% decrease compared to December. The number of shipment vessels is 29, a decrease of 26 compared to December. From January 31 to February 6, 2026, New Zealand directly shipped 9 vessels with 340,000 cubic meters of logs to China, an increase of 2 vessels and 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. From February 2 to February 8, 2026, the pre - arrival vessels of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports are 5, 2 less than the previous week, a 29% week - on - week decrease; the total arrival volume is about 185,000 cubic meters, 33,000 cubic meters less than the previous week, a 15% week - on - week decrease [18][19]. Log Inventory - As of January 30, the total domestic log inventory of different materials is 2.42 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.81% week - on - week decrease. The radiata pine inventory is 2.06 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a 2.83% week - on - week decrease. The North American timber inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, an 8.33% week - on - week decrease. The spruce/fir inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, the same as the previous week. In terms of different provinces, as of January 30, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,771,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 407,604 cubic meters, a decrease of 117,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 124,223 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,057 cubic meters compared to the previous period [22]. Log Demand - As of January 30, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 0.16% week - on - week decrease. Among them, the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 38,900 cubic meters, an increase of 2,800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 7.76% week - on - week increase; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 15,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, an 18.04% week - on - week decrease; the daily average total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian is 5,200 cubic meters, an increase of 1,200 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a 30% week - on - week increase. As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 60.27%, a 0.59 - percentage - point increase week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.18%, a 0.54 - percentage - point increase week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 55.71%, a 0.72 - percentage - point increase week - on - week [26]. Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a 10 - yuan increase compared to last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase, and a 60 - yuan decrease compared to the same period last year, a 7.41% year - on - year decrease. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - quality spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1150 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week, and a 100 - yuan increase compared to last year, a 9.52% year - on - year increase [33]. - For radiata pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1290 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine wood squares, taking 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1730 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan per cubic meter [38]. Import Log Costs - In February 2026, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is $113 per JAS cubic meter, a $3 increase compared to last month. The FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 125 euros per JAS cubic meter, a 1 - euro increase compared to last month [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, port arrivals are decreasing, and some traders are closing their warehouses, causing the spot price to be stable with a slight upward trend [3] - In the medium - term, supply will increase in February, demand will enter the Spring Festival off - season, and inventory is about to enter the accumulation stage. Log supply is expected to maintain a normal level according to the shipping schedule, while the weak new construction in the real estate sector on the demand side continues to drag down log demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - Short - term: Port arrivals decline, some traders close warehouses, and spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend [3] - Medium - term: Supply increases in February, demand enters the Spring Festival off - season, inventory accumulates. Log supply follows the shipping schedule, and real - estate new construction weakness drags down demand [3] 3.2 Spot Price Trends - For different tree species, specifications, and regions, most prices remained stable from 2026/1/16 to 2026/2/6. Only the 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% and the 5.9 - meter 20+ radiata pine in Shandong increased by 1.4% compared to the previous week [7] 3.3 Supply: New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data - Multiple log shipments from various origins are expected to arrive at Chinese and South Korean ports between February 7 and February 21, 2026, with different carrying capacities [19] 3.4 Demand and Inventory: Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Average Shipment - Port inventory: In some ports like Lanshan Port, Xinminzhou, and Jiangdu Port, inventory increased compared to the previous week, while in Taicang Port, it decreased. For example, the total inventory in Lanshan Port increased by 2.7%, and in Xinminzhou, the total inventory increased by 20.6% [23] - Daily average shipment: The total shipment in some ports like Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased compared to the previous week, while in Jiangdu Port, it decreased. For example, the total shipment in Lanshan Port increased by 8.0%, and in Jiangdu Port, it decreased by 60.0% [23] 3.5 Other Direct Price - Affecting Factors - Freight: The dry bulk BDI decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous week, the handy - sized BHSI increased by 3.2%, the crude oil BDTI decreased by 0.6%, and the SCFI composite index decreased by 3.8% [27] - Exchange rate: The USD/CNY decreased by 0.5%, and the USD/NZD decreased by 1.5% [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, China's log supply and demand showed a differentiated pattern. The supply was affected by natural disasters in New Zealand, with a 5% week - on - week decrease in the arrival volume at 13 ports in China. The demand was limited due to the approaching holiday of processing plants and the decline in the capital availability rate of construction projects. The inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, and the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%. The log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. It is expected that the log price will remain stable with a slight upward trend next week, and there will be no significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: New Zealand's heavy rain in the North Island caused landslides, suspending logging around Tauranga Port and disrupting shipments. The arrival volume at 13 ports in China decreased by 5% week - on - week, and there was a structural shortage of 6 - meter logs at Jiangsu Taicang Port [7]. - **Demand**: Some processing plants have shut down, and most will have holidays from late January to early February. Although the national average daily outbound volume increased by 7.13%, the capital availability rate of construction sites decreased week - on - week, with both housing construction and non - housing construction projects seeing a decline, resulting in limited demand support [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 4.46%, the radiation pine inventory dropped by 5.24%, and the inventories at Shandong and Jiangsu ports decreased. Only the inventory of North American logs increased slightly, showing significant regional supply - demand structural differences [7]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - This week, the log valuation was regionally differentiated, and the price was in line with the actual supply - demand situation. The price increase in Jiangsu was mainly due to low arrivals, structural shortages, and pre - Spring Festival stocking. The stable price in Shandong was because of stable supply and lack of incremental demand. The January FOB price remained at $110, while the ocean freight increased, and there was an expectation of a price increase in the February FOB price. The downstream wood products' prices showed a mixed trend. In the short term, the valuation in Jiangsu was supported by tight supply, but the demand would be under pressure as processing plants approached holidays. The valuation in Shandong was constrained by the balance of supply and demand. It is expected that the price will remain stable next week without significant trend fluctuations [7]. 3.1.3 Strategies - **Unilateral**: The log price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend. Investors are advised to go long based on the previous low [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The near - month contracts are expected to strengthen in the short term due to the natural disaster in New Zealand. Investors should pay attention to the log 03 - 05 spread [8]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided with additional content beyond what's in the comprehensive analysis section 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Supply - From November to December, the volume of logs shipped to China increased from 1452,000 cubic meters to 1521,000 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the number of ships increased from 49 to 55, an increase of 6 [17]. - From January 17 - 23, 2026, a total of 6 ships with 240,000 cubic meters of logs left 12 ports in New Zealand, a week - on - week increase of 2 ships and 120,000 cubic meters. Among them, 4 ships with 170,000 cubic meters were shipped directly to China, a week - on - week increase of 1 ship and 80,000 cubic meters [18]. - Due to heavy rain in New Zealand's North Island, logging around Tauranga Port was suspended, and the shipping had not returned to normal, with some ships delayed. From January 19 - 25, 2026, 11 ships with New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, the same as last week, and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 19,000 cubic meters and 5% [19]. 3.3.2 Log Inventory - As of January 16, the total inventory of domestic logs by material was 2.57 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 4.46%. The radiation pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 120,000 cubic meters and 5.24%. The North American log inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters and 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 cubic meters and 7.69% [22]. - As of January 16, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 89,795 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,513 cubic meters from the previous period. The total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 71,000 cubic meters, an increase of 31,000 cubic meters from the previous period [22]. 3.3.3 Log Demand - As of January 16, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4100 cubic meters and 7.13%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 32,400 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 4500 cubic meters and 16.13%. The average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 700 cubic meters and 2.98% [26]. - As of January 20, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.21%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.84 percentage points. The regions with a decrease in capital availability were mainly in East China [26]. 3.3.4 Log Prices - **Radiation Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan per cubic meter and 8.64%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 770 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan per cubic meter and 2.67%, and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter and 4.94%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1150 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter and 0.86%, and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter and 9.52% [33]. - **Downstream Wood Product Prices**: Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 radiation pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1200 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1260 yuan per cubic meter. Taking the 3000 * 40 * 90 spruce/white pine wood as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1750 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1680 yuan per cubic meter [36]. 3.3.5 Imported Log Costs - As of January 5, 2026, the FOB (CFR) price range of New Zealand radiation pine logs in January was $109 - 112 per JAS cubic meter, with the main price at $110 per JAS cubic meter, a decrease of $2 per JAS cubic meter from December [42].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Log Weekly Report (LG)]: Log Futures Fluctuate Significantly Affected by Macroeconomic Sentiment [1] - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures [1] Group 2: Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - The supply factor is bullish. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters [4]. Demand - The demand factor is neutral. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week [4]. Inventory - The inventory factor is neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46% [4]. Valuation - The valuation factor is neutral. The current log futures price is basically the same as the log delivery cost, within a reasonable range [4]. Investment View - It is more likely that the January FOB price of log futures will rise. At the same time, due to the impact of Christmas in New Zealand, the shipping volume has decreased, and it is expected to run bullishly [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Not provided. Risk focus: Domestic demand situation. Arbitrage: Not provided [4]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Review Futures Price Fluctuation - Log futures fluctuated significantly affected by macroeconomic sentiment. In the first half of the week, log futures increased in positions and declined affected by black building materials varieties, and decreased in positions and rose in the second half of the week. Some specifications in Jiangsu region increased, and the fundamentals were stable and improving [8]. Futures Position - Log positions were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,472 lots, a 1.4% increase compared to the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 11,610 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.24% [15]. Spot Price - Log spot prices were basically stable. As of January 23, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 680, 740, and 850 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 710, 760, and 940 yuan/m³ respectively. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 700, 770, and 800 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A, medium A, and large A radiata pine were 770, 810, and 840 yuan/m³ respectively [19]. Group 4: Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Import Volume - In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41%. In December 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.02%. In 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.51% [24]. Shipping Volume - New Zealand's log shipping volume decreased. In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a month - on - month increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase compared to 1.892 million cubic meters in October. In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, a total of 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters. In the past 4 weeks, a total of 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [30]. Inventory - Domestic coniferous log inventory decreased. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.46%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 8.33%. The spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2.04% compared to the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.18% compared to the previous week [38]. Outbound Volume - The log outbound volume increased. From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, an increase of 7.13% compared to the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16.13% compared to the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 2.98% compared to the previous week [43]. Wood Square Price and Processing Profit - As of January 23, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,170 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 68.5 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was 6 yuan/m³, unchanged week - on - week [46].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of logs is tightening, with spot prices remaining stable with a slight upward trend. The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation pattern. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and investors are recommended to go long near the previous low. Attention should also be paid to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs, while options should be on the sidelines [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: On the supply side, New Zealand's log shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week due to the Christmas holiday but are expected to return to normal next week. China's port arrivals increased by 8% to 411,000 cubic meters, with concentrated arrivals in Shandong and limited arrivals in the South. Total inventory increased slightly by 0.75%, with inventory accumulating in the North and supply in the South remaining tight. On the demand side, the daily average outbound volume increased slightly by 1.77%, showing a strong - weak differentiation in overall demand [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The current log valuation shows a north - south differentiation. The price in Jiangsu increased by 20 yuan/cubic meter, supported by tight supply and factory winter storage, while the price in Shandong remained flat due to concentrated supply and inventory accumulation. The cost of the current round of ship - received logs has decreased, but there is an expectation of an increase in the February foreign quotation. The price of downstream wood squares in Shandong decreased, while that in Jiangsu remained stable. In the short term, the valuation fluctuates with regional supply - demand differentiation and may stabilize next week to absorb the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, investors should go long near the previous low as log prices are stable with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread of logs. For options, stay on the sidelines [8]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Log Supply**: In the week of January 10 - 16, 2026, New Zealand's direct shipments to China decreased by 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From the cumulative data of the past 4 weeks, the shipments decreased compared with the same period last month. However, next week's shipments from New Zealand ports are expected to return to normal. From January 12 - 18, 2026, the number of pre - arriving ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 18% week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 8% [18]. - **Log Inventory**: As of January 9, the total domestic log inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week. The inventory of radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce/fir changed by 0.44%, 20.00%, and - 7.14% respectively. In terms of provincial inventories, the inventories of Shandong, Jiangsu, Fujian, and Hebei all increased [21]. - **Log Demand**: As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports increased by 1.77% week - on - week. The outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.29%. As of January 13, the sample construction site funds availability rate increased slightly, with the increase mainly driven by housing construction projects [25]. - **Log Price**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained flat week - on - week and decreased by 7.50% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased by 2.74% week - on - week and decreased by 7.41% year - on - year. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general spruce logs at Rizhao Port in Shandong remained flat week - on - week and increased by 10.48% year - on - year [32]. - **Downstream Wood Square Price**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood squares as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1200 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. For 3000*40*90 white pine wood squares, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [35]. - **Imported Log Cost**: As of January 5, 2026, the January foreign quotation (CFR) range of New Zealand radiata pine logs is 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS square, with the main price at 110 US dollars/JAS square, a decrease of 2 US dollars/JAS square compared with December [41].