现货稳中趋强，需求持续性待考验 第二部分 核心逻辑分析 第三部分 周度数据跟踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 研究员：朱四祥 期货从业证号：F03127108 投资咨询证号：Z0020124 目录 第一部分 综合分析与交易策略 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 价格：现货价格：本周日照3.9米中A辐射松价格750元/方，周环比持平，太仓4米中A原木价格780元/方，周环比持平；供应：周到 港：新西兰原木预计到港量19万方，周环比-60%；周库存：针叶原木总库存308万方，周环比-2.84%；需求：本期13港原木日均出库量 6.42万方，周环比持平。进口成本：本月辐射松CFR主力价116美金/JAS立方米，月环比+2%。 本周原木呈现"现货稳、外盘涨、库存降"特征：现货 3.9 m 中 A 日照 750、太仓 780 元/m³ 持平，外盘 CFR 116 ...

Market Overview - The price of A-grade radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 750 CNY/m³, while at Taicang Port, the price increased by 10 CNY/m³ to 780 CNY/m³ [1] - The price of 11.8m spruce logs at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1150 CNY/m³ [1] - The average daily outbound volume of logs nationwide is 64,200 m³, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.18% and a year-on-year increase of 35.73% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of incoming New Zealand logs at 11 ports in China decreased to 7 vessels, down by 8 vessels or 53% week-on-week [1] - The total volume of logs arriving at ports was approximately 190,000 m³, a decrease of 286,000 m³ or 60% from the previous week [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures indicates that the current market prices are stable, with expected reductions in log arrivals, leading to manageable supply pressure and increased stocking intentions from processing plants [2] - Ruida Futures notes that port inventories are at a neutral level for the year, with external prices providing cost support, and overall downstream demand for logs is gradually recovering [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Overview - For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 745 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week, while the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan per cubic meter from last week, with a regional price difference of -20 yuan. The 3.9 - meter 40+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 850 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week; the 5.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong was quoted at 765 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market had low trading volumes and were still in short supply [4]. Supply - As of July 27, there were a total of 40 ships departing from New Zealand in July, with 35 bound for mainland China and 5 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. Among the ships departing in July, about 16 were expected to arrive in July and 24 in August. The expected arrival volume in July was 1.63 million cubic meters [5][8]. Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 1.78 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters), and at Taicang Port it was 1.18 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.13 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2558 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.024 million cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 0.4363 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0785 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 0.4211 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0257 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 0.2068 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.016 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.32 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.0962 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. Market Trend - As of August 1, the main contract LG2509 closed at 821.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamentals maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The monthly spreads showed differentiation this week, with the 09 - 11 spread at -5 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 spread at -8.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 spread at -3.5 yuan per cubic meter [17]. Other - As of the week ending August 1, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2018 points, down 239 points (-10.6%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 678 points, down 0.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.74 points, down 2.6% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index was oscillating at a low level. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.200, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate slightly increased by 2.0% to 1.69 [58][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of logs still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories in the medium - to - long term. The exchange's multiple log simulated deliveries and the relatively large scale difference between the national standard and market scales support the current disk. There is an expectation of delivery valuation repair in the market near the delivery date [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week. Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs this week is about 416,000 cubic meters, an increase of 57,976 cubic meters from last week. The total inventory of coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand: From January to May 2022, the new housing construction area in the country was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. Import cost: The lowest CFR price of radiata pine this month is 108.5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. The downstream terminal market is still sluggish [6]. Strategies - Unilateral: Near the delivery date, radical investors can allocate a small number of long positions due to the expectation of delivery valuation repair. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7] Second Part: Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - Short - term Arrival Volume of Logs Increases Significantly - In April 2025, the number of departing ships from New Zealand was about 63, a month - on - month decrease of 3. The total shipment was about 1.727 million cubic meters, a 14% decrease from March. 51 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.397 million cubic meters, an 16% decrease from March. In May 2025, the number of expected departing ships is about 58, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The total shipment is about 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13% increase from April. It is expected that 49 ships will go to China, with a shipment of about 1.644 million cubic meters, an 18% increase from April. From June 16 - 22, 2025 (the 25th week), 18 ports in China are expected to receive 12 ships of New Zealand logs, a week - on - week increase of 2, a 20% increase. The arrival volume is about 416,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [15]. Log Inventory - High Overall Port Inventory and Inventory Accumulation - As of June 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase. The radiata pine inventory is 2.72 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 cubic meters, a 1.09% decrease. The North American log inventory is 300,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters, a 30.43% increase. The spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week [18]. Log Demand - Outbound Volume Drops from High Levels, and Real - Estate Construction Remains at a Low Level - As of June 13, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. As of June 17, the sample construction site's fund availability rate is 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate is 60.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The housing construction project fund availability rate is 49.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [24]. Third Part: Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase and an 11.76% year - on - year decrease. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week and an 8.43% year - on - year decrease. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is flat week - on - week and a 6.84% year - on - year decrease [31]. Downstream Timber Square Prices - Radiata pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1240 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1250 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter. The price of construction timber squares is expected to be stronger next week due to the increase in raw material prices [34]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In June 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine from New Zealand is in the range of 108.5 - 111 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. - Spruce FOB price: As of June 22, 2025, the main FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter spruce in Europe in June is 123 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as in May and 2 euros per JAS cubic meter lower than the same period last year [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the log market from multiple perspectives, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors. It details the current situation of the log market, such as changes in supply from New Zealand, port inventory and shipment volume, and fluctuations in spot and futures prices, along with various price differentials and other price - affecting factors [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of June 22, 30 vessels departed from New Zealand in June, with 24 bound for mainland China and 6 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 10 vessels are expected to arrive in June and 20 in July, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.51 million cubic meters in June [5][8]. - A detailed list of 30 vessels including departure time, load, current port, next port, and estimated arrival time is provided [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the daily average shipment volume at Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 cubic meters), and at Taicang Port was 10,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters). - In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.1348 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 29,800 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 474,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 420,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 202,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2317 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [6][13]. 3.3 Market Trend - As of June 27, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 819 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. The futures market showed a strong and volatile trend this week, while the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads widened this week, with the 07 - 09 spread at 28 yuan per cubic meter, the 07 - 11 spread at 35 yuan per cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 spread at 7 yuan per cubic meter [16]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Spot Price - For the 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 755 yuan per cubic meter, a 5 - yuan increase from the previous week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 765 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week. The price of the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong remained unchanged at 810 yuan per cubic meter, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter to 775 yuan per cubic meter. European spruce and fir were still in short supply in the Jiangsu market [4][20]. - The prices of downstream construction timber, such as 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter radiata pine, and 4 - meter, 3 - meter, and 2 - meter white pine/spruce in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous week, but decreased compared to four weeks ago [22]. 3.4.2 Price Differential - Multiple price differentials are presented, including regional differentials between Shandong and Jiangsu for various tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine), and differentials between tree species and specifications (e.g., 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 20 +) [23][52]. 3.5 Other - As of the week of June 29, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,521 points, a 168 - point (-9.9%) decrease from the previous week. The related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 636 points, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,861.51 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to be under pressure and reached a new stage low. The US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.172, a 0.1% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased slightly by 1% to 1.651 [6][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants purchase based on inventory needs. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the short - term downstream delivery has improved. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the log spot market still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories [6]. - The exchange will organize multiple log simulation deliveries in the future. Attention should be paid to the size difference between the national standard size and the market size, which will greatly affect log valuation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, with a week - on - week flat. The price of 4 - meter medium - A log in Taicang is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a week - on - week flat. The expected log arrival volume is 18.92 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The total inventory of coniferous logs this period is 3.43 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.35%. The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [6]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The overall spot market is stable with a weakening trend. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short term, the futures have fallen sharply, the basis is inverted, and there is a risk of delivery valuation repair due to the delivery size difference. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipment volume: In March 2025, the expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India is 2.0025 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships is 66, a month - on - month increase of 13.79%. From May 12th to May 18th, 2025, in the 20th week, 18 ports are expected to have 7 coniferous log ships arriving, a week - on - week decrease of 63%. The total arrival volume is about 189,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70% [15]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - The total domestic log inventory is 3.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters (- 2.28%) compared with the previous period. The inventory of coniferous logs is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but there are significant differences among different species. Radiata pine inventory is 2.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters (+ 1.50%); North American log inventory is 330,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters (- 17.50%); Spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters (- 13.04%). Northern ports are mainly reducing inventory, while some southern ports are increasing inventory [19]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - As of May 9th, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 10.35% compared with the previous period. The areas with a decrease in shipment volume include Shandong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin - Hebei, while the areas with an increase include Fujian and Guangdong. As of May 13th, the sample construction site fund availability rate is 59.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - real - estate project fund availability rate is 60.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, while the real - estate project fund availability rate is 51.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [25]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70%. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1110 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 4.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77% [34]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber (including tax and transportation) remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber (including tax and transportation) showed a strong trend this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter [39]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 4 US dollars/cubic meter compared with last month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 123 euros/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 3 euros/cubic meter compared with last month. The New Zealand external price continues to decline, and the central level of log import costs continues to move down [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates a weak - demand situation in the log market, with prices showing an oscillatory downward trend. It suggests a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as the upcoming seasonal demand slump in May, reduced demand for construction materials caused by a decline in new housing starts, and a supply - stronger - than - demand pattern in the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in July [3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Basics - Trees can be classified into softwood (coniferous) and hardwood (broad - leaved) trees. Logs are divided into coniferous and broad - leaved logs, and log futures' deliverable items are coniferous logs. The benchmark deliverable item for log futures is radiata pine, and there are also alternative deliverable items with different specifications and corresponding price adjustments [13]. - The delivery area covers 9 major import provinces and cities, with Shandong as the benchmark delivery area. Different regions have different import volumes and corresponding premium or discount settings [14]. 3.2 Supply - In 2025, it is still the peak supply cycle for New Zealand. The import volume of logs has shown certain trends over the years, and different countries and tree species have different import proportions. For example, in 2024, New Zealand accounted for 68.3% of the import volume of coniferous logs [27][26]. 3.3 Demand - As of April 18, the average daily outbound volume of Chinese log ports was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from the previous week. The real - estate market's development investment, new construction area, and other indicators have an impact on log demand. The export of furniture and related data also reflect the demand situation in the market [36][38]. 3.4 Inventory - As of April 18, the port inventory of Chinese coniferous logs was 351 cubic meters, a decrease of 8 cubic meters from the previous week. The inventory of North American logs decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, radiata pine decreased by 50,000 cubic meters, and spruce increased by 50,000 cubic meters [44][47]. 3.5 Price - This week, the spot prices remained stable. As of April 25, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous week, with a basis of - 16 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of other types of logs also remained unchanged compared to the previous week [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends, with some prices in Shandong slightly decreasing and others remaining flat, while European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - The supply of logs from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.76 million cubic meters in April, with 25 out of 29 vessels departing in April heading to China [4][7]. - The demand and inventory situation vary among ports. The total inventory of four major ports increased by 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week, with some ports experiencing inventory increases and others decreases [5][11]. - The futures market shows a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract LG2507 closing price down 3.2% from the previous week, and the monthly spread has widened [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - Spot price: For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, slightly down from last week, and the Jiangsu market price is 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 870 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 795 yuan/cubic meter, down 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market have low trading volume and are in short supply [4]. - Supply: As of April 20, 29 vessels departed from New Zealand in April, 25 of which were bound for China and 4 for South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in April and 13 in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.76 million cubic meters in April [4][7]. - Demand and inventory: As of the week of April 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 4,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 132,580 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 13,800 cubic meters, + 11.62%), Taicang Port's inventory was about 58,840 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 cubic meters, - 1.79%), Xinminzhou Port's inventory was about 30,350 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 18,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 20,910 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 242,680 cubic meters, an increase of 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][11]. - Other factors: As of the week of April 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,373 points, an increase of 112 points (+ 8.9%) from the previous week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 568 points, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,347.84 points, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index continued to decline. As of the week, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.2% from the previous week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate also decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [5][54]. 3.2 Supply - As of April 20, 29 vessels departed from New Zealand in April, 25 of which were bound for China and 4 for South Korea with load reduction. It is expected that about 16 vessels will arrive in April and 13 in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.76 million cubic meters in April. Detailed vessel information including departure time, load, current port, next port, and expected arrival time is provided [7]. 3.3 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of April 18, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 22,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 4,400 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1,400 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 132,580 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 13,800 cubic meters, + 11.62%), Taicang Port's inventory was about 58,840 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,700 cubic meters, - 1.79%), Xinminzhou Port's inventory was about 30,350 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 18,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 20,910 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 31,800 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 242,680 cubic meters, an increase of 77,100 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Detailed historical inventory data and changes of each port are also presented [11]. 3.4 Market Trends - As of April 25, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 796 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 3.2% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, with the fundamental supply - demand pattern remaining weak. The monthly spreads have widened, with the 07 - 09 monthly spread at - 16 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 monthly spread at - 20.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 monthly spread at - 4.5 yuan/cubic meter [14]. 3.5 Price and Spread - **Spot price**: The prices of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu markets show different trends, with some remaining flat and others slightly decreasing or increasing over different time periods [19][21]. - **Regional spread**: The price spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications are presented through data and charts, showing different trends and magnitudes [22][33][41]. - **Species and specification spread**: The price spreads between different tree species and specifications, such as 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 40 +, 3.9 - meter radiata pine 30 + and 5.9 - meter radiata pine 40 +, etc., are presented through data and charts [41][43][45]. 3.6 Other - Shipping and exchange rate factors are analyzed. As of the week of April 25, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,373 points, an increase of 112 points (+ 8.9%) from the previous week. The related Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was 568 points, a decrease of 0.2% from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,347.84 points, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased by 0.2% from the previous week, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate also decreased by 0.2% from the previous week. Detailed historical data and changes of related indices and exchange rates are provided [54][53].

Report Information - Report Title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Cao Jianlan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early April, there is still supply pressure on logs. It is expected that the arrival of goods will improve marginally from the middle of the month. If the subsequent inventory reduction intensifies and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the current decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and entering the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound strength. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. At the same time, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment, increasing market uncertainty, and market sentiment fluctuations should be vigilant [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all declined on April 9 compared to April 8, with decreases of - 0.24%, - 0.06%, and - 0.18% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts all increased [2] - Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 9 compared to April 8. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine decreased by - 0.87% on April 11 compared to April 4, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2] - The import theoretical cost decreased by 3.74 yuan to 822.61 yuan on April 8 compared to April 7, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 yuan to 7.345 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters from December 31 to February 28, with a growth rate of 50.98%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, with a growth rate of 18.37% [2] Inventory - As of April 4, the total log inventory in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a decline rate of - 0.28%. Inventory in Shandong increased by 9 million cubic meters (4.74%), while inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [3] Demand - As of April 4, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a growth rate of 7% [3]