1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the log market are relatively healthy, with low inventory, high daily average outbound volume, and firm spot prices. However, the recovery of shipping volume may suppress the subsequent upward space [2][6]. - The 05 contract is difficult to evaluate before its expiration. From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, short - selling does not have an advantage at present. Future decisions should be based on post - holiday inventory and the firmness of spot prices [7]. - The strategy of going long on dips can be considered, but due to the lack of liquidity, participation should be cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 30th, the national log inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, hitting a new low, while the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, remaining at a relatively high level. It is expected that the outbound volume will significantly decline next week as downstream factories start to have the Spring Festival holiday [2]. - In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine timber in Lanshan area continued to rise last week, and the prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan also increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Traders in Shandong offered relatively firm prices [2]. - Overseas shipping has changed. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were sent from New Zealand, 9 more than the previous period, indicating that the short - term shipping disruptions in New Zealand have basically ended, and the inventory problem may be alleviated in the future [2]. - The announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the middle of the week showed that most car - board delivery warehouses in the Yangtze River Delta region (excluding Shandong) suspended delivery business, which reduced the implicit cost of buyers taking delivery and boosted their willingness to take delivery on the futures market, thus increasing the valuation of the futures market [2]. - The overseas offer remained at $112, the same as the previous period [2]. - On the futures market, there was a trend of upward movement last week. The 03 contract reached a maximum of 813 yuan per cubic meter in the middle of the week, but on Friday, there was a significant reduction in positions and the price dropped to 784 yuan per cubic meter. During the transition of the main contract, the overall position was insufficient, and the liquidity was poor. Large - scale position increases or decreases would have a significant impact on the futures price [2][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: After breaking through the previous high, the price fell back. The position was low, and the liquidity continued to weaken [8]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis [9]. - Monthly spread strategy: Exit the 3 - 5 positive spread and wait and see. The monthly spread needs to observe subsequent policy adjustments [9]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - On December 25th, it was proposed to sell lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800. On January 29th, the put position was moved to 775, and on February 3rd, 2026, it was already profitable [10]. - On January 17th, it was proposed to go long on the 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower edge of the 03 - 05 range, and on January 26th, it was proposed to take profit [11]. - On January 24th, it was proposed to conduct range trading between 750 - 795, and on January 30th, it was revised to 775 - 810 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short log futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 810 - 820 [10]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 760 - 765 [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The inventory reached a new low; the new announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the buyers' willingness to take delivery; the spot price in Lanshan area increased, raising the valuation [12][16]. - **Negative Information**: Previously, buyers' willingness to take delivery was low, and sellers' delivery costs were high (this situation has been corrected); the shipping from New Zealand has recovered [13][14]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis information for different specifications of logs in various ports [14]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Funds continued to reduce positions and leave the market, and the current liquidity was insufficient [15]. 3.3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - Regarding the 3 - 5 monthly spread, it is currently recommended to wait and see. The 03 contract is fundamentally stronger than the 05 contract due to various positive factors mentioned above. The 3 - 5 monthly spread once reached 10 in the middle of the week and then fell back to - 4 on Friday [18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 810 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, while the warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong is around 812 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyers' willingness to take delivery, calculated at a 10% discount on the spot price, is around 770 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan). When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously recovering. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta region has significantly improved the recent profit [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From February 7th to 16th, it is expected that 9 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 340,000 cubic meters. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were shipped from New Zealand [31]. - As of January 30th, the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 100 cubic meters, indicating that the demand exceeded expectations. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and subsequent ship arrivals, it is expected that the inventory will start to accumulate [31].

Report Information - Report Title: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: April 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Cao Jianlan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In early April, there is still supply pressure on logs. It is expected that the arrival of goods will improve marginally from the middle of the month. If the subsequent inventory reduction intensifies and considering the current low price level, there may be short - term rebound space. However, the current decline in spot prices is dragging down the futures market, and entering the off - season for shipments in May will suppress the rebound strength. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate in the range of [810 - 850]. At the same time, the tariff upgrade has led to weak macro - sentiment, increasing market uncertainty, and market sentiment fluctuations should be vigilant [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all declined on April 9 compared to April 8, with decreases of - 0.24%, - 0.06%, and - 0.18% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts all increased [2] - Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on April 9 compared to April 8. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine decreased by - 0.87% on April 11 compared to April 4, while the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [2] - The import theoretical cost decreased by 3.74 yuan to 822.61 yuan on April 8 compared to April 7, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.03 yuan to 7.345 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly port shipping volume increased by 66.8 million cubic meters to 197.9 million cubic meters from December 31 to February 28, with a growth rate of 50.98%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 9 to 58, with a growth rate of 18.37% [2] Inventory - As of April 4, the total log inventory in China was 359 million cubic meters, a decrease of 1 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a decline rate of - 0.28%. Inventory in Shandong increased by 9 million cubic meters (4.74%), while inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 7.8 million cubic meters (- 6.06%) [3] Demand - As of April 4, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 7.16 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.46 million cubic meters compared to March 28, with a growth rate of 7% [3]