Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The decline of crude oil has temporarily paused due to Powell's dovish stance and a significant drawdown in EIA inventories. However, there is no substantial positive news in the crude oil market, and the medium - term downward pressure driven by the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remains clear. [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The unexpected significant decline in EIA weekly inventories and Powell's dovish stance have led to a short - term halt in the decline of crude oil. The medium - term and short - term structures are both bearish. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance on the day was volatile, with the short - term pressure above the hourly - level still referring to the 494 line. [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [1][2] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although non - integrated plants are still at a loss, the weekly production of styrene has reached a new high both year - on - year and month - on - month under the high profits of integrated plants. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth this year, resulting in a historically high inventory. In the future, from September to October, it will face the pressure of new plant commissioning, and the high - supply pressure will continue. [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day, and the 15 - minute small cycle changed from rising to falling again. There are also signs of breaking the upward trend at the hourly - level. Temporarily focus on the 7380 line as the pressure on the 15 - minute small cycle. [6] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, and look for short - selling signals on the intraday when the price is below the 15 - minute pressure. [6] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The production in the Southeast Asian rainy season has not increased significantly, and imports have slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory has started to decline, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The downstream tire demand has not weakened, and the short - term fundamentals of rubber have improved. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It increased in volume on the day and tested the short - term pressure at the 15950 line again, but failed to break through effectively. [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 15950 line. [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: On the cost side, a large amount of butadiene has arrived at the port, and the previously low port inventory has rebounded rapidly. Coupled with the commissioning of new plants, the fundamentals of butadiene are still bearish. However, the downstream tire demand has not weakened, and combined with the speculation of capacity reduction in the energy and chemical sector and the elimination of South Korean plant capacity last week, the short - term sentiment is strong. [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day and stood above the short - term pressure, with the short - term support below at the 11600 line. First, focus on the 11830 support on the 15 - minute upward structure. [13] - **Strategy**: Stop the loss of short positions on the hourly cycle. [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX has recovered, and the operation rate will gradually increase after the peak of plant maintenance. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has also increased with the arrival of the peak season. Both supply and demand are booming, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 6915 line as the short - term support. [17] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The fundamentals of PTA have been continuously improving recently. On the supply side, due to the increase in unexpected maintenance, the operation rate has declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure is low. The downstream terminals are gradually entering the peak season, and the operation rate has rebounded, with a strong future expectation. The previous inventory accumulation pattern has turned into inventory reduction, and the short - term supply - demand is strong. However, the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil on the cost side still exists, and combined with the short - term anti - involution sentiment disturbance, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position bands, and be cautious with trend positions. [21] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4825 line as the short - term support. [21] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [21] (7) PP - **Logic**: With the commissioning of new capacity and weak downstream demand, the fundamentals are bearish. However, the short - term market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish 15 - minute short - cycle structure, and the hourly - level pressure is far away. [23] - **Strategy**: Partially stop the profit of short positions on the hourly cycle, and re - enter short positions after the 15 - minute cycle turns bearish again. [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply and demand are both booming, with high operation rate and high production of methanol coexisting with high operation rate of downstream industries. However, the ships from the Middle East have resumed shipping and arrived at the port, and the expected arrival volume in August is still expected to increase significantly. The port inventory, which has rapidly accumulated to a historical high recently, still exerts great pressure on the market. [26] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. Focus on the 2455 line as the short - term pressure above. [26] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle. [26] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, the demand shows no improvement, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is still bearish. [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at the 5060 line. [30] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [30] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has rebounded, and the domestic operation rate has declined month - on - month. Coupled with the low arrival volume of ethylene glycol recently, the low port inventory makes its fundamentals stronger than other energy and chemical products. [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4455 line as the short - term support below. [31] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly level. [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The operation rate of PE has declined, but the downstream demand shows no improvement, and the downstream maintains just - in - time inventory replenishment. The fundamental driving force is average. However, the market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector and the speculation of South Korean plant capacity reduction. [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being tested. It was oscillating and strengthening slightly on the day, testing the previous high pressure. [34] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [34] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, and on the demand side, except for the rigid demand of glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the supply of soda ash. The fundamental driving force is still downward. [38] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day while oscillating, without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure on the 01 contract is far away. Temporarily look at the 1320 small support on the 15 - minute short - cycle upward structure. [38] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions. [38] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the one hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda are affected by the anti - involution sentiment and the possible restriction of chlorine transportation due to the 9.3 military parade. The characteristics of difficult storage and low storage capacity of hazardous chemicals mean that once the outbound circulation is restricted, the enterprise operation rate and production are expected to decline rapidly. On the other hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda itself have also strengthened recently. However, the short - term bullish expectation has weakened after the 9.3 military parade, and the historically high supply still exerts some pressure, with limited upward space. [40] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish hourly - level structure. Focus on the 2670 line as the short - term support below. [42] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [42]