原油成本走弱

Search documents
LPG:原油成本走弱,丙烯:供需紧平衡,短期震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 02:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of LPG crude oil is weakening, while the supply and demand of propylene are in a tight - balance, with short - term fluctuations [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,875 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.39%, and its night - session price was 3,892 with a night - session increase of 0.44%; PG2510 closed at 4,435 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.27%, and its night - session price was 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.16%; PL2601 closed at 6,467 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and its night - session price was 6,462 with a night - session decrease of 0.08%; PL2602 closed at 6,515 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 7,842 (a decrease of 4821 compared to the previous day), and the position was 20,526 (a decrease of 3904 compared to the previous day); for PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 66,639 (a decrease of 10222 compared to the previous day), and the position was 94,067 (a decrease of 5907 compared to the previous day); for PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,117 (a decrease of 783 compared to the previous day), and the position was 4,744 (an increase of 30 compared to the previous day); for PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 10 (an increase of 5 compared to the previous day), and the position was 852 (a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day) [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 135 yesterday (compared to 103 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 185 (compared to 163 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 3 (compared to - 36 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 8 (compared to - 41 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 42 (compared to - 66 the previous day) [1] 3.1.4 Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, down from 76.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate this week was 63.5%, up slightly from 63.4% last week; the alkylation operating rate remained at 49.0% this week, the same as last week [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.3 Market Information 3.3.1 CP Paper Goods Prices - On August 26, 2025, the September CP paper goods price for propane was 520 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 495 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day. The October CP paper goods price for propane was 535 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7] 3.3.2 Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8] 3.3.3 Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Oilfield starting a full - plant maintenance on June 16, 2025, ending in late August 2025, with a loss of 400 units; Shandong's Zhenghe Petrochemical starting a full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8]