成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡格局延续 区间震荡整理 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 3 日 投资咨询 ...

中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 2026.2.27 本月碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国2月制造业PMI为50.2，环比回升1.1,%，重回扩张区间，分项数据显示供需协同改善，1月CPI同比升0.2%，核心 CPI同比升0.8%，PPI同比下滑1.4%，消费需求温和恢复。1月金融数据创历史同期新高，社融规模增7.22万亿，同比增加31662亿 元，其中政府债和企业债贡献较大，M2余额同比增9%，人民币新增贷款4.71万亿，其中企业贷款占比90%。美国就业市场超预期表 现强劲，失业率回落，通胀持续降温，导致美联储降息路径扑朔迷离，此外春节假期期间特朗普关税政策反复，避险情绪升温。 【供应端】2月产量预计9万吨左右，环比上月下滑。正值国内春节假期部分厂家放假或安排检修影响产量。进口方面，海外智利 发运量环比回升，属于季节性提前发运。 【需求端】1月中国新能源汽车产销分别完成104.1万辆和94.5万辆，同比分别增长2.5%和0.1%。商用车市场延续向好态势，1月产 销同比均保持两位数增长。新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，1月出口30.2万辆，同比增 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡延续 区间震荡偏强 投资咨询业务资格： 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 碳酸锂 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周碳酸锂期货主力合约价格收至 176040 元/吨，成交缩量，持 仓微增，多空比净持仓环比微增，广期所库存增 10 手至 38461 手。现货端， SMM 电碳均价 172000 元/吨，电工价差维持 3500 元/吨，下游补库刚需， 采购意愿回暖，上游惜售挺价，市场询价和实际成交仍相对清淡，现货情 绪偏谨慎。 基本面来看，供应端，上周各类原料价格较 2 月 13 日环比普涨，SMM 周度开工率回升至 49.75%（较 2 月 12 日+3.73%），周度总产量增至 21822 吨（+560 吨），供应边际增加。需求端表现分化，上周铁锂增产增库，三 元降产去库；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降至 36.3%，处相对 低位；1 月，动力 ...

成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：供需紧平衡延续 期价高位震荡运行 以伊冲突 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 碳酸锂 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 基本面来看，供应端，节前锂辉石精矿(CIF)价格微涨，云母略降；本 周 SMM 周度开工率回升至 49.75%（较 2 月 12 日+3.73%），周度总产量增 至 21822 吨（+560 吨），供应边际增加。需求端表现分化，本周铁锂增产 去库，三元降产增库；至 2 月 8 日，SMM 新能源车销量渗透率降至 36.3%， 处相对低位；1 月，动力+储能电池合计产量为 168.0GWh，环比-16.7%， 同比+55.9%；销量 148.8GWh，环比-25.4%，同比+85.1%。储能电芯产销两 旺且库存低位，成结构性亮点。库存端，节前 SMM 四地样本社会库存增 3160 吨至 46210 吨，本周样本周度总库存去库至 100093 吨，处于相对低位， 总库存天数降至 28.2 天，整 ...

四、复工供需：供给紧、需求起，支撑高价 今日 10:16，长江现货 1# 锡报价 414250-416250 元 / 吨，均价 415250 元 / 吨，单日大涨 11500 元，节后 强势冲高、高位运行格局明确，内外宏观共振 + 供需紧平衡推动锡价持续上行。 一、宏观重磅：美元走弱 + 美股走强，金属全线爆发 今日，美元指数跌至 97.57，人民币汇率强势突破 6.85 关口，以美元计价的工业金属全面受益，伦锡隔 夜暴涨 7.19%，内外盘联动拉升国内锡价；美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指大涨 1.26%，AI 算力、芯片封 装需求持续向好，锡作为电子产业链核心金属，需求预期大幅升温，叠加地缘局势升温，资金涌入大宗 商品避险，有色板块成为资金首选方向。 二、印尼突发：研究禁止精炼锡出口，供给端炸雷 今日最新消息，印尼官方明确表态，继锡矿出口禁令后，正在研究全面禁止精炼锡出口，推动本土深加 工，全球锡供给直接面临收缩预期；叠加缅甸矿供应偏紧、LME 锡库存持续走低，全球锡市供给短缺 已成定局，成为今日锡价暴涨核心导火索。 三、长江现货 1# 锡：强势拉涨，成交回暖 今日长江现货 1# 锡跟随期货大幅上调报价，高开高 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity market shows a clear divergence due to improved macro expectations and pre-holiday risk aversion, with lithium carbonate and soybean one standing out while some products face profit-taking as the holiday approaches [1] - Commodity price trends are increasingly influenced by factors beyond simple supply and demand, including funding sentiment, policy signals, and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals exhibit significant volatility but maintain a strong oscillating pattern, influenced by U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which delays Fed rate cut predictions from June to July [1] - The strong support for gold prices comes from ongoing geopolitical tensions and central banks' strategic accumulation of gold [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rebound strongly, driven by marginal supply contraction and ongoing inventory reduction, supported by positive demand expectations due to optimized export tax policies for lithium batteries [2] - Despite a projected decline in downstream production due to the Spring Festival, March production plans are expected to show significant year-on-year growth, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [2] Group 4: Soybean One - Soybean one futures lead the agricultural sector, driven by pre-holiday funding positioning based on expectations of tight supply-demand post-holiday [3] - The current spot market is entering a state of limited activity, but traders remain optimistic about post-holiday replenishment demand due to school openings and business resumption [3] Group 5: Stock and Futures Interaction - The strong rebound in lithium carbonate futures is rapidly transmitting to the stock market, creating a clear "stock-futures linkage" [3] - The futures market reacts more quickly to supply contractions and policy benefits, leading to improved profit expectations in the lithium battery supply chain, with upstream lithium resource stocks benefiting directly from price increases [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical disturbances in the LPG market still exist, and the fundamental factors are driving the market downward. The supply - demand of propylene is in a tight balance, and the spot price remains stable [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For LPG (PG), on February 12, 2026, the 2603 contract had a closing price of 4,271 with a daily increase of 0.21%, and a night - session closing price of 4,310 with a night - session increase of 0.91%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 4,529 with a daily decrease of 0.70%, and a night - session closing price of 4,516 with a night - session decrease of 0.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 4,447 with a daily decrease of 0.56%, and a night - session closing price of 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.43%. For propylene (PL), the 2603 contract had a closing price of 6,278 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and a night - session closing price of 6,246 with a night - session decrease of 0.51%. The 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,215 with a daily decrease of 0.42%, and a night - session closing price of 6,220 with a night - session increase of 0.08%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,225 with a daily decrease of 0.75%, and a night - session closing price of 6,228 with a night - session increase of 0.05% [3] - **Spot Market**: For LPG, the Shandong civil LPG price was 4,440, the East China imported LPG price was 5,026, the East China civil LPG price was 4,467 (down 8 from the previous day), the South China imported LPG price was 4,860 (down 5 from the previous day), the South China civil LPG price was 4,750, the Shandong ether - after LPG price was 4,460 (up 10 from the previous day), and the FEI arrival price was 5,002 (down 16 from the previous day). For propylene, the Shandong price was 6,445, the East China price was 6,430, and the South China price was 6,325 [3] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: As of February 13, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 65.57% (up 2.91% from the previous week), the alkylation operating rate was 36.85% (unchanged from the previous week), and the MTBE operating rate was 67.87% (down 0.14% from the previous week) [3] - **LPG Shipping Volume**: On February 12, 2026, from the US to the world, the shipping volume was 32.4 (up 11.9 from the previous day), to Asia was 9.1 (down 4.7 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (down 4.5 from the previous day), to Japan was 4.5 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 4.6 (up 4.6 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day). From the Middle East to the world, the shipping volume was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to Asia was 6.4 (up 0.3 from the previous day), to China was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to Japan was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to South Korea was 0.0 (unchanged from the previous day), to India was 6.4 (up 4.7 from the previous day), and to Southeast Asia was 0.0 (down 2.2 from the previous day) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [7] 3.3 Market Information - On February 12, 2026, the March CP paper - cargo price of propane was 537 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day), and the butane price was 527 US dollars/ton (down 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day). The April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 522 US dollars/ton (down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day) [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, such as those of Rizhao (China Overseas), Shenchi Chemical, etc. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a short-term stabilization due to supply contraction outpacing demand contraction, but there are risks of a pullback after the holiday [3][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current lead market shows a tight balance with supply contraction occurring faster than demand contraction. Smelting enterprises are undergoing maintenance, and recycled lead companies are halting operations due to environmental and profit pressures, leading to a significant drop in production capacity [3]. - Domestic mines are on winter break, and import trading is sluggish, resulting in a phase of tightening raw material supply. On the demand side, the upcoming Spring Festival is causing battery manufacturers to halt operations, and overall purchasing volume is gradually declining [3]. Industry Chain Dynamics - All segments of the industry chain are entering a pre-holiday winding down phase. Upstream mining is reducing output, and raw material transportation is affected by logistics during the Spring Festival. Midstream smelting enterprises are seeing a general decline in operating rates, while downstream battery manufacturers have high inventory levels and have ceased large-scale purchases [4]. Price Trend Forecast - It is expected that lead prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend before the holiday, with the main contract for lead in Shanghai projected to fluctuate between 16,600 and 16,800 yuan per ton. This rebound is primarily driven by the short-term supply-demand tight balance, but the potential for price increases is limited due to reduced trading volume and capital withdrawal before the holiday [5]. Operational Recommendations - Investors are advised to approach the current rebound rationally, primarily adopting a light position and avoiding chasing high prices before the holiday. Industry players may consider locking in orders when prices stabilize to mitigate post-holiday risks. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work and inventory changes after the holiday, waiting for clearer supply-demand dynamics before making further moves [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of tin is experiencing a significant surge, driven by a combination of supply constraints and structural demand growth, marking the beginning of a super cycle for tin by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - The average price of 1 tin in the Changjiang spot market reached 390,000 yuan per ton, an increase of 17,250 yuan from the previous day [1]. - On the same day, tin prices peaked at 382,010 yuan per ton, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply-side constraints are exacerbated by various factors: - Myanmar's Wa State is not recovering production as expected, leading to a sharp decline in imports due to taxation and logistics issues [2]. - Indonesia's export quotas are tightening, increasing mining costs [2]. - The geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo threatens nearly 90% of the mining supply [2]. - Domestic smelters are facing operational challenges due to raw material shortages and maintenance during the Spring Festival [2]. - On the demand side, sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and AI computing are entering a pre-holiday stocking period, resulting in a surge in orders for solder and high-purity tin [2]. Group 3: Macro Influences - External macro factors include a weakening dollar, a recovery in U.S. stock markets, and rising global interest rate cut expectations, which are driving the valuation recovery of commodities [2]. - Internally, there is an expectation of liquidity easing in China, supportive pre-holiday policies, and a concentrated release of downstream demand, creating dual support for tin prices [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Caution is advised in chasing high prices in the metal market before the holiday, as tin prices may experience volatility after the recent surge [3]. - Post-holiday, as downstream production resumes, demand is expected to further release, potentially creating a window for investment in cyclical sectors [3]. - Short-term tin prices may remain strong due to stocking demand, but attention should be paid to the risks of supply recovery leading to price corrections [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. - The gas - fired plants have basically resumed production, and production is normal during the Chinese New Year. Agricultural demand for goods is good, and the peak season for wheat top - dressing after the Spring Festival is approaching. Industrial demand is gradually weakening. - The overall volatility of the macro - market and commodities increased last week, but urea remained relatively stable. After the Indian tender was issued on Saturday, the futures rose on Monday. The probability of spot price reduction before the festival is low, and the futures will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Spot Market Dynamics - Before the Spring Festival holiday, the order - receiving situation is good but not fully filled, and the price remains stable. After the futures rose on Monday, the order - receiving progress is expected to accelerate. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with Henan's prices at the lower end [4]. 3.2. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the futures showed a downward - opening and mostly weak - oscillating trend. As of February 9, the main May contract of urea was reported at 1788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the settlement price on January 19. The weekly trading volume was 12.8833 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.4244 million tons; the open interest was 7.5489 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5991 million tons. - After the Indian tender was released on Saturday, the domestic market sentiment improved, and the futures rose. Last week, the increase in urea futures was less than that of the spot, and the basis strengthened. As of February 9, the 05 - contract basis was 2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread was 40 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 18 yuan/ton. - On February 9, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10860, a week - on - week decrease of 396 [6][9]. 3.3. Urea Supply - From January 29 to February 4, the weekly urea output was 1.4692 million tons, an increase of 14310 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.98%, and the average daily output was 209900 tons. The coal - based weekly output was 1.2428 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%; the gas - based weekly output was 226400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. The small - particle weekly output was 117780 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%; the large - particle weekly output was 291400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. - It is expected that 4 - 5 enterprises will resume production in the next cycle. As of February 9, 2026, the national daily urea output was 210000 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 85.26%. - The prices of coking coal and anthracite coal are expected to remain stable, and the price of liquefied natural gas has increased. The price of synthetic ammonia has decreased, and the price of urea has increased. The methanol price has remained stable [12][14][15]. 3.4. Urea Demand - As of February 9, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 3230 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was basically flat last week. Before the festival, they continued to stock up for production, and the inventory in the factory decreased slightly. The terminal sales were good. The last operating data before the holiday is expected to show a week - on - week decline. As of February 6, the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories was 41.79%, a week - on - week increase of 0.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.45%. - From January 30 to February 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.95%, a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous period and 7.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Before the holiday, downstream panel factories and melamine production entered the holiday mode and are currently at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [17]. 3.5. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918500 tons, a decrease of 26400 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, and 827400 tons lower than the same period last year. The downstream agricultural demand for goods is smooth, but the factory demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and the downstream inventory is still being smoothly reduced, which verifies the tight - balance supply - demand logic and supports the urea market. The port sample inventory was 165000 tons, an increase of 21000 tons from the previous week [20]. 3.6. International Market - India's RCF issued a new round of urea import tender, with a target purchase volume of 1.5 million tons. Under the influence of the new Indian tender, market confidence is boosted, and international urea prices are expected to continue to rise. - As of February 9, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was 422.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was 455 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.5 US dollars/ton. The prices in other regions also showed varying degrees of increase [22].