1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on methanol is "strongly bullish" in the short - term, with a trading strategy of "bullish" for single - side trading and "wait - and - see" for arbitrage [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the core investment logic of methanol revolves around geopolitical drivers and a tight supply - demand balance, showing an overall strong trend. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, driving the resonance of energy and chemical products to strengthen. Coupled with the expected contraction of import supply, it forms the core positive support. The supply - demand side presents a pattern of "tight supply and stable demand". The inventories at ports and inland areas are decreasing simultaneously, and the rigid demand from the olefin sector supports the demand, further strengthening the fundamental support. However, the downstream shows resistance to high prices, and transactions are mainly small - volume, which limits the price increase. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the evolution of the geopolitical situation, the volume of imported arrivals, and the restocking rhythm of the downstream. It is recommended to adopt a range - bound trading strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices, while closely monitoring the arbitrage window and inventory change signals [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - This week, the methanol supply side shows a pattern of a marginal increase in domestic production, tight imported supplies at a low level, and continuous inventory reduction in all links. The actual market - circulating supplies are tight, and the support from the supply side to the market is continuously strengthening. Domestically, the scale of restarted methanol plants far exceeds the loss from maintenance during the same period. The operating loads of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and gas - based are steadily rising, and the overall industry capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, with a slight increase in domestic supply. The arbitrage window between the production areas and the coastal areas remains open, the inventory of inland producers is being rapidly reduced, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing, with domestic supplies flowing smoothly to the coastal market. In terms of imports, although the volume of arrivals has slightly recovered this period, affected by geopolitical conflicts and limited international shipping capacity, the overall arrival scale remains at a low level. Coupled with the shortage of international supplies, there is a strong expectation of import contraction in the future, making it difficult to effectively supplement the domestic market. The ports continue to experience inventory reduction due to insufficient arrivals, further strengthening the tight supply pattern [2] 3.2 Demand - This week, the methanol demand side shows a pattern of stable rigid demand from the main downstream sectors and significant differentiation among traditional downstream sectors. The overall demand has slightly improved marginally, providing basic support to the market. However, the terminal demand is weak in the high - price environment, and the substantial driving effect is limited. The olefin sector is the core support on the demand side. This week, the restart and capacity increase of methanol - to - olefin plants are progressing simultaneously, the industry's operating level is steadily rising, the demand for externally - purchased methanol is continuously released, and the procurement rhythm is stable, forming a stable consumption of both inland and port supplies, which is the most important supporting force on the methanol demand side. The traditional downstream sectors show overall differentiation. The operating loads of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid have increased, mainly driven by cost factors, but the terminals have low acceptance of high - price raw materials and only maintain rigid procurement, with limited actual transaction volume. The demand in industries such as chloromethane has weakened, the operating load has declined, and the consumption capacity of methanol has also decreased. Overall, the increase in demand is mainly concentrated in the main olefin sector, and the demand from traditional downstream sectors still appears weak [2] 3.3 Inventory - This week, the overall methanol inventory shows a pattern of narrow inventory reduction at the main coastal ports with significant regional differentiation and continuous decline in inland factory inventories. The overall social inventory has decreased steadily, providing bottom - line support to the spot market. At the coastal ports, the total methanol inventory has slightly decreased, and the inventory reduction rhythm is generally slow, with the inventory scale still at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history. There are prominent regional differences. The inventory reduction in the South China and Fujian regions is obvious, the inventory in the Jiangsu region remains basically stable, and the inventory in the Zhejiang region has slightly increased due to concentrated arrivals. The available circulating supplies at the ports are generally tight, and the提货 rhythms vary significantly among different regions. In the inland market, the inventory of producers continues to decline, the factory inventories in the main production areas generally decrease, and the volume of pending orders is steadily increasing. The core driving factor is that the arbitrage window between the inland and the coastal areas remains open, the supplies flow smoothly to the coastal market, and coupled with the continuous consumption of rigid demand from the downstream, the inventory pressure in the inland areas is continuously relieved [2] 3.4 Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its industrial chain show a pattern of overall strengthening of upstream profitability and widespread pressure and differentiation among downstream sectors. The industry profits are generally concentrated in the upstream methanol production end. In terms of methanol's own profitability, the production - end profits have continued to rise significantly this week, and the profitability of all mainstream production processes has improved significantly. The core driving factor is the significant increase in the spot price of methanol, while the prices of raw materials such as coal and natural gas have fluctuated gently, and the increase in the cost side is far less than the increase in the methanol price. The profitability of coal - based methanol has increased significantly, the profitability of coke - oven gas - based methanol remains leading in the industry, and the natural - gas - based methanol has turned from loss to profit, with the overall production profitability of the industry improving comprehensively. On the downstream profit side, there are prominent differentiation characteristics. The rapid increase in the methanol price has brought heavy cost pressure. The losses of traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have continued to expand, the profit margin of the main downstream MTO industry has significantly narrowed, and only a few varieties such as glacial acetic acid and MTBE have seen a slight increase in profitability. Overall, the cost - passing ability of the downstream to high - price raw materials is weak [2] 3.5 Politics - There are multiple geopolitical events. US President Trump posted on TruthSocial, threatening to destroy and paralyze Iran's power plants if Iran does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. At least one tanker operator has paid about $2 million to Iran for the right to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military sources said that if the US carries out its threat of military aggression against Kharg Island, Iran will launch "unexpected" counter - attacks. Israeli media reported that Houthi rebels may join the battle early next week, and Iranian military sources mentioned that deterring other straits including the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea is one of the options for the "Resistance Front" [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Chemical, Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Fluorochemicals - **Key Events**: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacting oil supply, significant price fluctuations in various chemical products, and agricultural inputs. Oil & Gas Market Insights - **Oil Supply Disruption**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a supply disruption of approximately 20 million barrels per day, with an actual shortfall of about 10 million barrels per day [1][2][3] - **Oil Price Stability**: Oil prices have stabilized around $100 per barrel, with expectations for a short-term price range of $90-100 per barrel [1][2][3] - **Impact on Major Producers**: Core oil-producing countries in the Gulf, including Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, are expected to reduce production by up to 1 million barrels per day, representing about 10% of global oil output [2][3] - **Freight and Insurance Costs**: Shipping costs have surged, with freight rates exceeding $500,000 per day, and insurance costs reaching $20-25 per barrel, significantly impacting overall oil pricing [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - **China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC)**: - Directly benefits from rising oil prices, with profit increasing by approximately 2 billion RMB for every $10 increase in oil prices [1][5] - Current valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of around 5.5 at $100 oil, with a dividend yield exceeding 7% and a potential stock price upside of 30-40% [5] Agricultural Chemicals - **Amino Acid Prices**: The price of methionine has surged by 85% to 32,500 RMB per ton, driven by supply disruptions in Europe and Singapore [1][11] - **Pesticide Market Dynamics**: Glyphosate and glufosinate prices are rising due to cost pressures and increased strategic stockpiling in the U.S. [1][11] - **Future Price Expectations**: Anticipated price peaks for glyphosate and glufosinate during the replenishment seasons in North and South America in mid-2026 [1][11] Fertilizer Market Trends - **Potash Prices**: Potash prices are expected to rise to $450-500 per ton by 2026, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [1][6] - **Phosphate Market**: Phosphate rock prices remain high at around 1,000 RMB per ton, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist [1][7][8] Fluorochemicals - **Refrigerant Price Trends**: Prices for refrigerants like R32 and R134a have increased significantly, with R32 reaching 62,500-63,500 RMB per ton [1][14] - **Market Recovery**: The fluorochemical market is showing signs of recovery, supported by improved demand from the air conditioning sector [1][15][16] Investment Opportunities - **Yara International**: Recommended as a key investment in the potash market due to its strategic positioning and expected production growth [1][6] - **Zanyu Technology**: Positioned to benefit from palm oil price increases and tax advantages in Indonesia, with plans to expand production capacity significantly [1][17] Conclusion - The current geopolitical climate and market dynamics are creating significant opportunities and risks across the oil, gas, and agricultural sectors. Investors should closely monitor price movements, supply chain disruptions, and company-specific developments to identify potential investment opportunities.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "buying on dips" for lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance. With downstream industries entering the peak season, there is a replenishment demand, and the total inventory has fallen below 100,000 tons. Considering factors such as the resumption of production of domestic lithium salt plants and potential changes in overseas lithium ore policies, it is advisable to buy lithium carbonate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's imports from January to February increased by 17.1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 19.2% year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI rose by 1.0% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 0.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing. The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, and the central bank will maintain moderately loose monetary policy and sufficient liquidity. In the US, the February CPI rose by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, increasing spill - over risks and reducing investors' risk appetite [3] 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the output of lithium carbonate increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by lithium extraction from spodumene. Salt lakes have not yet entered the seasonal production peak. Lithium salt plants are actively purchasing raw materials, and domestic supply capacity is gradually recovering [3] 3.3 Demand Side - In February, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were 464,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.06 million units, a year - on - year decline of 25.7%. In the 10th week of 2026, the weekly orders of major new energy vehicle brands increased by 96% on average week - on - week, showing a strong rebound [4] 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore remained relatively stable. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,830 per ton, up $60 from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,160 per ton, unchanged from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 6,600 yuan per ton, also unchanged from last week. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 31,507 yuan per ton, a decrease of 234 yuan week - on - week [4] 3.5 Total Inventory - As of March 12, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 16,292 tons, a decrease of 1,184 tons week - on - week [4] 3.6 Market Review - As of March 13, LC2605 was reported at 152,080 yuan per ton, a 2.6% decline from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan per ton, a 1.94% increase from last week. The basis changed from a discount to a premium, and the open interest of the main contract was 320,000. The main contract fluctuated widely in the range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton this week. Due to geopolitical conflicts, funds favored the chemical and crude oil sectors, and the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and lithium carbonate sectors were under pressure. However, the fundamentals remained in a tight - balance state, with the total inventory decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. In mid - to late March, the peak season will arrive, and downstream industries with high operating rates have a rigid demand for lithium carbonate [7] 3.7 Production Status - As of March 13, the output of lithium carbonate was 23,720 tons, an increase of 720 tons from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 51.51%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from last week. The output of lithium iron phosphate was 113,409 tons, an increase of 625 tons from last week, and the enterprise operating rate was 88.52%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points from last week [9][12] 3.8 Downstream Inventory - As of March 13, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 27,731 tons, a decrease of 701 tons from last week. The inventory of the ternary material, manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and ternary precursor industries changed little, and the overall inventory level was low [34] 3.9 Cost - end Situation - As of March 13, the cost of lithium carbonate production was 124,785 yuan per ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from last week. The cost of lithium iron phosphate production was 54,913 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,125 yuan from last week [48][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market will continue to maintain a tight supply - demand balance and stabilize with fluctuations under the fermentation of geopolitical risks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate oscillated in the range of 151,100 - 160,900 yuan/ton, trading volume shrank to 228,000 lots, and open interest increased by 1,529 lots to 333,900 lots. The net institutional position decreased month - on - month. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants were still reluctant to sell, while a small number of material factories made bargain purchases. The market inquiries increased, but actual transactions were light [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of raw materials (SMM lithium spodumene concentrate CIF China, lithium mica, and amblygonite) decreased month - on - month. The SMM weekly operating rate rebounded to 51.5%, and the total output increased to 22,590 tons (+768 tons). In February, the export of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased by 32.04% month - on - month and 85.89% year - on - year, strengthening the medium - term supply loosening expectation [2]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production and inventory of ternary lithium iron increased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming with low inventory, which was a structural highlight. SMM predicted that the production of ternary lithium iron in March would increase by more than 19% month - on - month, and the industrial chain production schedule maintained high prosperity [2]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - place social inventory decreased to 43,000 tons (-1,300 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 99,400 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 27.9 days, maintaining a tight balance overall [2]. Macro - policy Analysis - **International**: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand [3]. - **Domestic**: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raises the recycling threshold and eliminates backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure and raising the cost support center in the long term. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support the long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest rate cut strengthens the medium - and long - term positive atmosphere [3]. Impact of Geopolitical Factors The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased the risk - aversion sentiment, and the US dollar index has fluctuated more. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, but its impact is subject to the dominant tight supply - demand balance pattern in the lithium market [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The supply-demand balance is tight, but macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and supply disruptions are critical in influencing metal price trends [2] - Geopolitical disturbances continue to impact precious metals, with inflation expectations suppressing their prices [8] - The copper market is supported by recovering consumption and a tight supply situation, while aluminum prices are driven by geopolitical concerns affecting supply [10][11] - Energy metals like lithium show strong demand, with continuous inventory depletion, while cobalt prices remain high due to tight raw material supply [11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices decreased, with SHFE gold down 0.36% to 1,140.80 CNY/g and COMEX gold down 1.27% to 5,181.30 USD/oz [8] - Silver prices also fell, with SHFE silver down 2.83% to 21,740 CNY/kg and COMEX silver down 9.21% to 84.70 USD/oz [9] - Central bank gold purchases continue, with China's gold reserves increasing to 7,422 million ounces [8] Copper - Copper prices experienced fluctuations, with SHFE copper down 2.76% to 101,050 CNY/ton and LME copper down 3.61% to 12,862 USD/ton [10] - Supply concerns were alleviated despite transportation disruptions in the Democratic Republic of Congo [10] - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, supported by recovering demand and tight supply [10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices surged, with SHFE aluminum up 3.69% to 24,715 CNY/ton and LME aluminum up 9.75% to 3,446 USD/ton [10] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have raised supply concerns, contributing to price increases [10] Energy Metals - Lithium demand remains strong, with continuous inventory depletion and rising production [11] - Cobalt prices are high due to tight supply, while companies are extending their operations into the electric new energy sector [11] - The report highlights the strategic value of rare earth elements, despite recent price declines [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, although it underperformed compared to broader market indices [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market will continue to maintain a tight supply - demand balance and stabilize with fluctuations under the influence of geopolitical risks [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - Affected by the risk - aversion sentiment of funds caused by geopolitical risks, the main contract of lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and maintained a weak shock yesterday. The LC2605 contract fluctuated between 146,000 yuan/ton and 155,700 yuan/ton throughout the day, and the position decreased by about 600 lots compared with the previous trading day. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154,000 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt factories are still reluctant to sell, while downstream material factories' purchasing willingness has significantly increased [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared with February 13th. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared with February 12th), and the total output increased to 21,822 tons, with a marginal increase in supply [2] - **Demand**: There is a divergence in demand. Last week, iron - lithium production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8th, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. The production and sales of energy - storage cells are booming and the inventory is at a low level, which is a structural highlight [2] - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - place social inventory decreased to 44,520 tons, the sample weekly inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level, and the total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [2] Macro - policy Analysis - **International**: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased benefit to demand [2] - **Domestic**: Automobile trade - in subsidies and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, which optimizes the domestic supply structure and raises the cost support center in the long term. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergy to support the long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cut strengthens the long - term positive atmosphere [2] Impact of Geopolitical Events - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment and the volatility of the US dollar index. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify, but its impact is subject to the dominant position of the tight supply - demand balance in the lithium market. It is a short - term emotional disturbance rather than a trend reversal [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The lithium carbonate market will continue the pattern of tight supply - demand balance and conduct range - bound consolidation [2][4]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the main contract opened higher, then oscillated and declined, and finally stabilized at 172,020 yuan/ton. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the net long - short ratio decreased slightly. The inventory on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 265 lots to 38,461 lots [2]. - On the spot side, the average price of SMM electric carbon was 172,500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. Downstream replenishment demand was rigid, and procurement willingness improved. However, the upstream was reluctant to sell and tried to support prices. Market inquiries and actual transactions were still relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [2]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared with February 13. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase from February 12), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (an increase of 1,638 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3]. - Demand: There was a differentiation in demand. Last week, lithium - iron phosphate production and inventory increased, while ternary production decreased and inventory was reduced. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In February, the output of NBS lithium - ion batteries was 169.01GWh, a 12.9% month - on - month decrease. The production and sales of energy - storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [3]. - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, maintaining an overall tight - balance pattern [3]. Macro - policy Analysis - Domestic policies: Subsidies for car trade - ins and battery export tax rebates directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold, eliminate backward production capacity, and optimize the domestic supply structure and raise the cost support center in the long term. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "14th - 15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support long - term supply - demand balance [4]. - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest - rate cut strengthens the medium - and long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - International situation: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal. The White House's 15% temporary tariff policy improves the marginal profit of exports and is beneficial to demand within the window period [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a pattern of intensified supply - demand tight - balance with further expansion of total inventory destocking. The price may remain in a high - level and strong - side oscillation. It is advisable to go long on dips, while keeping an eye on overseas lithium mine shipments and domestic production capacity resumption progress [77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2, up 1.1% month - on - month, returning to the expansion range. In January, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell 1.4% year - on - year. January's financial data hit a record high for the same period, with a social financing scale increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.1662 trillion yuan year - on - year. The US job market was unexpectedly strong, with falling unemployment and cooling inflation, making the Fed's interest - rate cut path uncertain. During the Spring Festival, Trump's tariff policies were inconsistent, increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3]. Supply Side - February's production is expected to be around 90,000 tons, down from last month due to the Spring Festival holiday when some manufacturers had holidays or maintenance. Overseas shipments from Chile increased month - on - month as a seasonal early shipment [3]. Demand Side - In January, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, up 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. New - energy vehicle exports reached 302,000 units, doubling year - on - year. European new - energy vehicle sales were about 289,000 units, up 19.6% year - on - year but down 33.2% month - on - month; North American sales were about 90,000 units, down 33% year - on - year. Domestic new energy storage new tendering scale reached 15.07GW/72.03GWh, up 109%/151% year - on - year [4]. Inventory - As of February 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 100,093 tons, down 7,389 tons from last month. The upstream smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, down 624 tons from last month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 38,451 tons, up 7,820 tons from last month [4]. Cost and Profit - As of February 26, the average industry cost was 113,407 yuan/ton, down 12,699 yuan from last month. The African SC 5% was quoted at $1,800/ton, down $100/ton from last month; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $2,348/ton, up $3/ton from last month; the lithium mica market price was 6,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last month. The lithium carbonate industry profit was 25,332 yuan/ton, down 18,670 yuan [4]. February Market Review - As of February 26, LC2605 closed at 173,660 yuan/ton, up 17% from last month. The spot battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 175,000 yuan/ton, up 11% from last month, and the basis discount narrowed. The main contract's open interest was 375,000. The main lithium carbonate contract first declined and then rose in February [6]. Production - Lithium carbonate production declined slightly. As of January, the national lithium carbonate capacity was 2,469,020 tons, up 0.7% month - on - month, with a monthly operating rate of 50.15%, down 0.12% month - on - month. January's production was 102,260 tons, down 3% month - on - month but up 61% year - on - year. As of February 13, lithium carbonate production was 21,640 tons, down 2,045 tons week - on - week. The enterprise operating rate was 46.99%, down 4.45% week - on - week. As of February 13, lithium hydroxide production was 6,365 tons, down 85 tons week - on - week, with an enterprise operating rate of 42.71%, down 0.57% week - on - week [10][11][13]. Import and Export - In December 2025, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, up 9% month - on - month but down 14% year - on - year. In 2025, China imported 243,000 tons of lithium carbonate in total, up 3.4% year - on - year, and exported 5,290 tons, up 38% year - on - year. In January 2026, Chile exported 16,950 tons to China, up 44.81% month - on - month but down 11.35% year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported 788,500 tons of spodumene, up 8.09% month - on - month, equivalent to 78,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent. On February 25, Zimbabwe suspended all exports of raw ore and lithium concentrate [15][18]. Terminal Demand - In January 2026, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, up 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year, with a penetration rate of 38.6%, down 12.3% month - on - month. New - energy passenger vehicle exports were 302,000 units, up 100.5% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The domestic power battery loading volume was 42.0GWh, down 57.2% month - on - month but up 8.4% year - on - year. In January 2026, new - type energy - storage new installations were 3.8GW/10.9GWh, up 62%/106% year - on - year [24][29]. Digital Demand - In January 2026, China's smartphone sales fell 23% year - on - year. Apple was the only mainstream brand with year - on - year growth, with a market share of 19%. Huawei's sales fell 27% year - on - year but still had the highest market share. Global smartphone average prices are expected to rise 6.9% year - on - year in 2026 [30]. Product Production - As of February 27, lithium iron phosphate production was 97,009 tons, up 170 tons week - on - week, with an enterprise operating rate of 82.65%, up 0.14% week - on - week. The downstream purchasing sentiment for ternary materials was weak, and the operating rate was slightly lowered. Other cathode materials' downstream demand shrank to rigid demand and were produced according to orders [34][36][44]. Cost and Profit of Different Products - As of February 13, lithium carbonate production cost was 113,407 yuan/ton, down 12,699 yuan from last month, and the industry profit was 25,332 yuan/ton, down 18,670 yuan. As of February 13, lithium hydroxide production cost was 113,214 yuan/ton, down 4,581 yuan week - on - week, and the industry profit was 27,290 yuan/ton, down 15,755 yuan week - on - week. As of February 27, lithium iron phosphate production cost was 58,434 yuan/ton, up 2,283 yuan week - on - week, and the loss was 1,983 yuan/ton, down 208 yuan/ton week - on - week [59][62][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the data of lithium carbonate supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap from January 2025 to March 2026E. The supply - demand gap has been mostly positive in 2025 but turned negative in some months, and is expected to remain negative in early 2026 [76]. Operation Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Buy on sufficient dips, with a reference range of [160,000, 220,000]. Hedging strategy: Production - type enterprises can hedge against the upper limit of the range according to their production situations or reduce the hedging ratio. Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate will remain in a tight balance, and the price will fluctuate within a certain range with an upward bias [2][4] Summary by Related Sections Market Performance - Last week, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 176,040 yuan/ton, with a decrease in trading volume, a slight increase in positions, and a slight increase in the net long-short ratio. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 10 lots to 38,461 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 172,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. The downstream replenishment demand was strong, but the market inquiry and actual transactions were still relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the prices of various raw materials increased compared with February 13th. The SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (an increase of 3.73% compared with February 12th), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (an increase of 560 tons), indicating a marginal increase in supply [3] - **Demand**: The demand showed differentiation. Last week, the production and inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production and inventory of ternary materials decreased. As of February 8th, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the total production of power and energy storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 16.7% and a year-on-year increase of 55.9%; the sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month-on-month decrease of 25.4% and a year-on-year increase of 85.1%. The production and sales of energy storage cells were booming, and the inventory was at a low level, which was a structural highlight [3] - **Inventory**: Last week, the social inventory of the four SMM sample areas decreased by 1,690 tons to 44,520 tons, and the total sample weekly inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, and the overall situation maintained a tight balance [3] Macro Policy - **Domestic Policy**: The subsidy for car trade-ins and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro liquidity. The management method for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries raises the recycling threshold, eliminates backward production capacity, optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term, and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai Salt Lake, the "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference form a synergy to support the long-term supply and demand balance [4] - **International Policy**: On February 20th, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, which improved the export profit margin and was beneficial to demand during the window period [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate maintain a tight - balance pattern, with light spot trading. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures closed at 173,660 yuan/ton yesterday. The increase in price was accompanied by a surge in trading volume, the open interest decreased slightly, and the net long - short ratio continued to decline. The inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 74 lots to 38,451 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon in the spot market was 173,000 yuan/ton, and the price difference between electric and industrial carbon remained at 3,500 yuan/ton. The downstream had a rigid demand for replenishment, and the upstream was reluctant to sell and tried to hold up prices. The market inquiry and actual trading were relatively light, and the spot sentiment was cautious [1] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Before the festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) increased slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. This week, the SMM weekly operating rate rose to 49.75% (a 3.73% increase compared to February 12th), and the weekly total output increased to 21,822 tons (a 560 - ton increase), indicating a marginal increase in supply [2] - **Demand**: The demand showed differentiation. This week, lithium - iron phosphate production increased and inventory decreased, while ternary production decreased and inventory increased. As of February 8th, the penetration rate of new - energy vehicle sales in SMM dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the combined output of power and energy - storage batteries was 168.0GWh, a 16.7% decrease month - on - month and a 55.9% increase year - on - year. The sales volume was 148.8GWh, a 25.4% decrease month - on - month and an 85.1% increase year - on - year. The energy - storage battery cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, which was a structural highlight [2] - **Inventory**: Before the festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. This week, the sample weekly total inventory decreased to 100,093 tons, at a relatively low level. The total inventory days decreased to 28.2 days, and the overall situation maintained a tight - balance pattern [2] 3.3 Macro - policy Analysis - **Domestic Policy**: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the export tax rebate for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. The management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new - energy vehicle power batteries raise the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, which in the long term optimizes the domestic supply structure and raises the cost - support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference work together to support the long - term supply - demand balance [3] - **Macro - environment**: The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [3] - **International Policy**: On February 20th, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff instead. The tariff on energy - storage battery cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, which marginally improves export profits and is beneficial to demand during the window period [3]