Core Viewpoint - The domestic aluminum market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a new annual high of 22,100 yuan/ton, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since late October, aluminum prices have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price for October at 21,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.26% and a year-on-year increase of 1.40% [2]. - As of November 10, the average price for domestic A00 aluminum was 21,500 yuan/ton, marking a month-on-month increase of 0.14% and a rise of 690 yuan/ton from the October low, representing a 3.32% increase [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Support - Key macroeconomic factors supporting aluminum prices include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which alleviated global liquidity pressures and improved market risk appetite [3]. - The consensus reached in U.S.-China tariff negotiations, including the reduction of certain aluminum product tariffs, has eased concerns about export restrictions, benefiting aluminum processing enterprises [3]. - The stabilization of energy costs due to a calming geopolitical situation in the Middle East further supports the aluminum industry [3]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply-demand balance is tight, with significant constraints on the supply side, particularly due to transportation limitations in the northwest region during the heating season, leading to reduced aluminum ingot shipments to East China [4]. - The operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached the policy limit of 45 million tons, with limited new capacity additions, maintaining a high operating rate of over 96% [4]. Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of differentiation, with overall demand in October being strong but expected to decline as the industry transitions into the off-season in November [5]. - The construction sector is experiencing reduced activity due to winter conditions, while demand in the aluminum cable sector remains stable, albeit with slower order uptake due to rising aluminum prices [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience a high-level oscillation from November to December, with prices supported by macroeconomic factors but facing downward pressure from declining demand [6][7]. - The projected price range for A00 aluminum is between 20,500 yuan/ton and 22,000 yuan/ton, with potential for new highs in November followed by a gradual weakening towards the end of the month and into December [7].

今日沪锡 合约延续近期反弹趋势，整体呈现"高开高走，高 位震荡"的运行特征。早盘以 元 吨开盘后，受宏观情绪回 暖及有色金属板块普涨带动，随后因下游按需采购的谨慎心态制 约，盘面小幅回落至 元 吨的日内低点；午后多空博弈加 剧，价格在高位区间震荡整理，最终以 元 吨收盘。今日成 交量为 手。 2 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 曹煌树 | 图低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交顾 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | જ્રીસ | | | | | | | | 商品名称:锡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2511 | 285390 | 285980 | 287020 | 285980 | 287020 | 286190 | 1630 | 800 | 54 | 1545.47 | 1184 | 16 | | 2512 | 285790 | 287510 | 2884 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is becoming a "safe haven" for capital, with significant growth in sub-industries such as synthetic resins and adhesives, indicating a transition from "overcapacity" to "tight supply-demand balance" in the chemical industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:40, the Petrochemical ETF (159731) decreased by 0.12%, while stocks like Sanmei Co., China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum saw notable gains [1] - The latest scale of the Petrochemical ETF is 167 million yuan, with a record share of 198 million, both reaching new highs [1] Group 2: Sub-industry Growth - Synthetic resins and adhesives have experienced rapid growth, with prices doubling since April, driven by companies like Aowei New Materials, which has seen its stock price surge over 15 times this year [1] - Other chemical sub-industries, including nylon and polyurethane, have also shown upward trends [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongfang Securities, products with high correlation to demand in Europe and the U.S. are expected to benefit first from macroeconomic improvements, while those linked to emerging markets will recover later [1] - MDI and PVC (polyvinyl chloride) are anticipated to be the most certain products for future growth [1] Group 4: Industry Composition - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 60.85% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 32.16% of the index [1] - Ongoing government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the chemical industry are a core support for the sector's strength [1]

有色金属日报 2025-10-27 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 供应忧虑和对中美经贸谈判的乐观预期推升铜价，周五伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.2%至 10947 美元/吨，沪 铜主力合约收至 87660 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 575 至 136350 吨，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持 贴水。国内上期所 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of tin is in a short - term tight balance. In the global macro - loose cycle, the medium - term demand is not pessimistic. However, in the short term, there is an expected increase in supply due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, and the growth of tin demand from consumer electronics is not obvious. So, it is not recommended to chase high prices, and buying on dips may have a higher probability of success [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - side - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative refined tin output was 127,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.95%. The smelter's operating rate in September was 38.6%, and some enterprises had maintenance in September [5] - In Yunnan, most smelters' output decreased month - on - month, with some having maintenance and production stagnation, and the tin ore supply was still tight. In Guangxi, enterprises' output decreased significantly due to maintenance and tight raw materials. In Jiangxi, the smelter output decreased slightly due to tight raw materials and policy reasons [5] - In October 2025, as large smelters resume production and most sample enterprises maintain stable operation, the domestic refined tin output is expected to rise to about 14,500 tons [5] - Due to the slow increase in the output of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, China's overall tin ore imports remain at a low level, and tin ingot supply has been low. In the fourth quarter, tin ingot supply may increase significantly after the supply of tin mines in Myanmar gradually expands [2][16] Demand - side - In Q3 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 10% year - on - year, the highest since the peak demand during the 2022 pandemic. The growth rate of mobile phone consumption rebounded slightly, with a year - on - year increase of 2%. IDC predicts that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The emerging 3C electronic consumption areas driven by AI are still in the initial stage and have little impact on overall demand [8] - The construction of 5G communication equipment and large - scale data center servers requires a large number of circuit boards and connection components, and the tin consumption is increasing steadily. With continuous investment in global AI - related capital expenditure, the server scale is growing rapidly. IDC data predicts that AI server shipments will increase by 26% year - on - year to 1.895 million units in 2025 and continue to grow in 2026 [8] - In September 2025, China's automobile sales reached 3.226 million, a record high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 14.9%. New energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6% [8] - Other non - semiconductor demand is relatively stable. Tin consumption in the tinplate field has declined slightly as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The output of PVC has increased slightly year - on - year in the first three quarters, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [12] - Downstream new energy vehicles and AI servers continue to be booming, traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are experiencing a mild recovery, while the photovoltaic field is relatively weak due to over - capacity and trade frictions [2][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After two months of consolidation, the silver market saw a breakthrough in September, with both domestic and international prices hitting multi - year highs. The strong upward trend is driven by multiple factors including macro - environment, supply - demand balance, and gold - silver ratio repair [2][5]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts is strengthening, which provides a solid foundation for the rise of precious metals including silver [11][12]. - The silver market in 2025 is expected to have a supply - demand gap, and the continuous strength of industrial demand, supply - demand imbalance, and low inventory support the long - term price elasticity and allocation value of silver [17][18]. - The current gold - silver ratio is significantly higher than historical averages, indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Looking ahead, loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in the inflation situation should be noted. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to key price levels [3][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In September, after two months of consolidation, the silver market had a breakthrough. The New York silver price exceeded $43 per ounce and reached a high of $44.395 per ounce on September 23, with a year - to - date increase of over 50%. The domestic Shanghai silver also reached a record high of 10,359 yuan per kilogram, with a year - to - date increase of over 35% [2][5]. - The strong rise in silver prices is due to multiple factors. Macroeconomically, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and geopolitical tensions boost silver. Industrially, the demand from sectors like photovoltaics, new - energy vehicles, and semiconductors is strong, leading to a supply - demand imbalance. The current gold - silver ratio is high, indicating undervaluation of silver [2][5]. 3.2 Macro Policy Expectations Driving Precious Metals Up - Economic indicators show a significant slowdown in the US labor market. In August, non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The inflation data shows some stickiness, and the PPI is in deflation. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 soared to 263,000, heightening concerns about economic slowdown [11]. - Market expectations for the Fed's continued interest rate cuts are strengthening. The September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points. As of September 22, the CME data shows a 91.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October and an 80.6% probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in December, which supports the rise of precious metals [12]. 3.3 Tight Supply - Demand Structure of Silver and Strong Industrial Demand - In 2024, global silver supply increased moderately. Global mined silver production was 819.7 million ounces, up 0.9% year - on - year, and recycled silver supply reached 193.9 million ounces, up 6% year - on - year. The total demand decreased by 3% to 1.16 billion ounces, with a significant structural differentiation. Industrial demand reached a record high, especially in electronics, photovoltaics, and other fields [17]. - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to increase by 2% to 1.0306 billion ounces, and total demand is expected to decrease slightly by 1% to 1.1483 billion ounces, resulting in a supply gap of 117.6 million ounces. Excluding ETPs, the physical gap will widen to 187.6 million ounces. The supply - demand gap and low inventory support the price of silver in the long - term [18]. 3.4 Gold - Silver Ratio Repair and Enhanced Silver's Catch - up Momentum - The current domestic and international gold - silver ratios are about 82 and 85 respectively, significantly higher than the historical averages of the past 50 years (63) and 20 years (70), indicating that silver is undervalued and has room for a price correction [20]. - Historically, when the gold - silver ratio is high, silver usually lags behind and then catches up. In the current context of interest rate cut expectations and industrial demand recovery, silver's financial and commodity attributes resonate, attracting capital inflows [20]. 3.5 Future Operation Suggestions - Loose monetary policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties will continue to support silver prices, but risks such as speculative profit - taking and changes in inflation data should be noted [3][25]. - It is recommended to buy on dips, focus on the effectiveness of support around $40 per ounce, and set upward targets at around $45 per ounce and $48 per ounce. Attention should be paid to controlling positions and closely monitoring macro - data and capital trends [3][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of LPG crude oil is weakening, while the supply and demand of propylene are in a tight - balance, with short - term fluctuations [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 LPG and Propylene Futures Price - PG2509 closed at 3,875 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.39%, and its night - session price was 3,892 with a night - session increase of 0.44%; PG2510 closed at 4,435 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.27%, and its night - session price was 4,428 with a night - session decrease of 0.16%; PL2601 closed at 6,467 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.37%, and its night - session price was 6,462 with a night - session decrease of 0.08%; PL2602 closed at 6,515 yesterday with a daily decrease of 0.23% [1] 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 7,842 (a decrease of 4821 compared to the previous day), and the position was 20,526 (a decrease of 3904 compared to the previous day); for PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 66,639 (a decrease of 10222 compared to the previous day), and the position was 94,067 (a decrease of 5907 compared to the previous day); for PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,117 (a decrease of 783 compared to the previous day), and the position was 4,744 (an increase of 30 compared to the previous day); for PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 10 (an increase of 5 compared to the previous day), and the position was 852 (a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day) [1] 3.1.3 Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 135 yesterday (compared to 103 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 185 (compared to 163 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 3 (compared to - 36 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 8 (compared to - 41 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 42 (compared to - 66 the previous day) [1] 3.1.4 Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 75.7%, down from 76.3% last week; the MTBE operating rate this week was 63.5%, up slightly from 63.4% last week; the alkylation operating rate remained at 49.0% this week, the same as last week [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 3.3 Market Information 3.3.1 CP Paper Goods Prices - On August 26, 2025, the September CP paper goods price for propane was 520 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 495 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day. The October CP paper goods price for propane was 535 US dollars per ton, down 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [7] 3.3.2 Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8] 3.3.3 Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Oilfield starting a full - plant maintenance on June 16, 2025, ending in late August 2025, with a loss of 400 units; Shandong's Zhenghe Petrochemical starting a full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, with an undetermined end - date; etc. [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the resilience of viscose short fiber demand despite tariff disputes, with projected consumption growth in 2023 and 2024, and a minimal decline in H1 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumption and Demand - The apparent consumption of viscose short fiber is projected to be 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, representing year-on-year increases of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [1][2]. - In H1 2025, the apparent consumption is expected to be 1.96 million tons, with a slight year-on-year decline of only 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [1][2]. Group 2: Technology and Market Trends - The rapid development of vortex spinning technology is anticipated to drive continued growth in viscose short fiber demand, with its market share expected to increase from 10% to 25% [2]. - Vortex spinning technology is particularly suited for chemical fibers, showing significant achievements, although it faces challenges in natural fiber applications [2]. Group 3: Production Capacity and Utilization - Effective production capacity for viscose short fiber is projected at 5.07 million tons in 2023 and 4.885 million tons in 2024, with capacity utilization rates of 77.1% and 84.3% respectively [3]. - As of June 2025, nominal capacity is expected to be 5.16 million tons, with effective capacity at 4.935 million tons and a utilization rate of 81.5% [3]. - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Pricing Trends - As of August 8, 2025, the inventory level for viscose short fiber is reported at 169,700 tons, equating to only 10.9 days of supply, indicating a low inventory level historically [4][5]. - The industry operating rate is at a high of 85.9%, and prices for viscose short fiber have shown an upward trend, with a recent price increase of approximately 150 yuan per ton [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The upcoming peak seasons for textile and apparel, along with a temporary suspension of tariffs, are expected to boost demand for viscose short fiber [5]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Sanyou Chemical, which are likely to benefit from these market dynamics [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for viscose staple fiber is expected to continue growing due to rapid development in vortex spinning technology, with apparent consumption projected at 3.81 million tons in 2023 and 4.09 million tons in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 9.74% and 7.28% respectively [5] - The viscose staple fiber industry has maintained a tight supply-demand balance, with capacity utilization rates above 80% and limited new capacity additions since 2022 [6] - The price of viscose staple fiber has shown resilience despite a decline in raw material prices, with recent price increases of approximately 150 CNY per ton [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry is characterized by a high concentration, with the top three companies holding a combined market share of 69.77% [6] - The industry has seen limited new capacity additions, with only one planned project expected to come online in 2026 [6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in the first half of 2025 is projected at 1.96 million tons, with a minor year-on-year decline of 1.00%, indicating strong demand resilience [5] - The industry has experienced a high operating rate of 85.9% as of August 2025, with inventory levels at a historical low of 10.9 days [6] Price Trends - The price gap between viscose staple fiber and its raw materials has been expanding, with viscose prices remaining firm despite fluctuations in raw material costs [6][9] - The recent suspension of tariffs between the US and China is expected to boost demand for viscose staple fiber in the upcoming peak seasons [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stock: Sanyou Chemical; Beneficiary stock: Zhongtai Chemical [7]

Core Viewpoint - The international liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade volume in the first half of the year increased due to European replenishment demand, but the growth remains historically low due to renewable energy substitution and persistently high gas prices [1] Group 1: Trade Volume and Growth - The global LNG trade volume for the first half of the year reached 210 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.24% [1] - Despite the increase, the growth rate is only slightly higher than that of 2024, indicating a slow expansion phase [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global LNG market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, influenced by weather and geopolitical factors [1] - The acceleration in global LNG liquefaction capacity and the rising share of U.S. supply have led to a more concentrated performance among leading global LNG suppliers [1]