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建信期货MEG日报-20251029
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 02:06
Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamental drivers of ethylene glycol are weak, and with the weakening support from crude oil, the market price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a weak trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Quotes: EG2601 closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan, with a position of 318,056 contracts, an increase of 1,901 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4152 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a position of 20,792 contracts, an increase of 341 contracts [7] - Market Performance: On the 28th, the main ethylene glycol futures opened at 4110 yuan/ton, reached a high of 4115 yuan/ton, a low of 4066 yuan/ton, settled at 4090 yuan/ton, and closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 130,492 contracts, and the position was 318,056 contracts [7] 2. Industry News - Crude Oil: OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from sanctions on a certain European country last week is fading, and traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions. The optimism surrounding Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17; the settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4144 - 4145 yuan/ton, down 40.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day; next week's spot negotiation was 4142 - 4144 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for November delivery was 4140 - 4142 yuan/ton. The current spot basis was at a premium of 75 - 76 yuan/ton over EG2601, next week's spot basis was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the November delivery basis was at a premium of 71 - 73 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operating Rate: The operating rate of the Chinese ethylene glycol industry was 64.41%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of ethylene-based ethylene glycol was 66.57%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of syngas-based ethylene glycol remained unchanged at 61.16%. The main changes in plant operations this period were the restart of Fujian United and a slight adjustment in the load of Hainan Refining & Chemical's plant [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]