申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

20251121申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6835 | 6883 | 6923 | 6400 | 6513 | 6546 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6833 | 6883 | 6925 | 6434 | 6532 | 6564 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -34 | -19 | -18 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0.00% | -0.03% | -0.53% | -0.29% | -0.27% | | ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。 如因投资者将本报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. On the spot market, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were raised by 50. For拉丝PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. After a continuous decline earlier, there was a slight rebound last week. Overall, the market is still in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to the intensity of seasonal demand and changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6843, 6902, and 6949 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 10, - 13, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.15%, - 0.19%, and - 0.10% respectively. The trading volumes were 206820, 42477, and 227, and the open interests were 542295, 115114, and 2254, with changes in open interests of 1540, 1481, and - 31 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 59, - 47, and 106, compared with previous values of - 62, - 41, and 103 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6467, 6565, and 6606 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 7, - 10, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.11%, - 0.15%, and - 0.11% respectively. The trading volumes were 231256, 35837, and 591, and the open interests were 632878, 157881, and 9134, with changes in open interests of 10826, 3191, and 144 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 98, - 41, and 139, compared with previous values of - 101, - 38, and 139 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2035 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 553 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures decreased from 2062 yuan/ton, and Shandong propylene increased from 5800 yuan/ton, while other raw materials remained unchanged [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and South China markets remained the same, while in the North China market, the previous range was 6800 - 7050 and 8100 - 8250. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and North China markets remained the same, and in the South China market, the previous range was 6400 - 6550 [2]. Information and Comment - On Monday (November 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.32 - $60.44. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.2 per barrel, a decrease of $0.19 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.67 - $64.72 [2].

Group 1: Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 3.79%, and the chemical machinery index rose by 8.33% last week, while the chemical pharmaceuticals index decreased by 2.91% [1] - The pesticide and fertilizer index saw an increase of 4.32% [1] - In the oil sector, the oil processing index rose by 3.72%, the oil extraction index increased by 5.63%, and the oil trading index went up by 4.41% [1] Group 2: Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices experienced slight fluctuations downward, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% from October 31 [1] - Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from October 31 [1] Group 3: Chemical Product Price Changes - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included folic acid up 20%, nitric acid up 10.43%, sulfur up 9.95%, industrial-grade lithium carbonate up 9.51%, and petroleum coke up 7.23% [1] - The top five chemical products with the largest price decreases included liquid chlorine down 34%, butadiene down 7.69%, trichloroethylene down 6%, styrene-butadiene-styrene copolymer (SBS) down 5.9%, and carbon black down 5.53% [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five chemical companies in the capital market with the highest stock price increases were Qing Shui Yuan up 47.78%, Zhenhua Co. up 37.19%, Fuluo Technology up 33.38%, Unified Co. up 32.93%, and Zhuoyue New Energy up 26.38% [2] - The bottom five chemical companies with the largest stock price decreases were Huidet Technology down 24.78%, Yashichuang Energy down 19.09%, Kaimete Gas down 18.64%, Weike Technology down 8.98%, and Yokogawa Precision down 8.86% [2]

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 6729 | 6968 | 7030 | 7066 | 6651 | 6721 | | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7009 | 7075 | 7105 | 6685 | 6765 | 6762 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -41 | -45 | -39 | -34 | -44 | -33 | | 场 | | | | | | | 619 | | | 持仓量 | 508700 | 68191 | 1821 | 613335 | 138459 | 7234 | | | 持仓量增减 | -3569 | 1907 | 143 | 677 | 4514 | 115 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins follow the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7009, 7075, and 7105 respectively, with increases of 24, 13, and 4, and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.18%, and 0.06%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6685, 6765, and 6762 respectively, with increases of 28, 31, and 25, and percentage increases of 0.42%, 0.46%, and 0.37% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 212938, 21224, and 643 respectively, and the open interests were 512269, 66284, and 1678 respectively, with changes of - 7218, - 322, and 309. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 201901, 20539, and 557 respectively, and the open interests were 612658, 133945, and 7119 respectively, with changes of 1313, - 468, and 280 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 66, - 30, and 96 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 39, and 116. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 80, 3, and 77 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 3, and 80 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2261 yuan/ton, 5985 yuan/ton, 543 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: In the mid - stream, the current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (October 29), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.48 per barrel, up $0.33 or 0.55% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.70 - $61.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.92 - $65.37 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins followed the crude oil trend and declined slightly today. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6985, 7062, and 7101 respectively, with price drops of - 39, - 28, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.56%, - 0.39%, and - 0.25% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 220120, 21981, and 485, and open interests were 519487, 66606, and 1369, with changes of - 4375, 114, and 214 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 39, and 116, compared to previous values of - 66, - 29, and 95 [2] PP Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6657, 6734, and 6737 respectively, with price drops of - 42, - 34, and - 33, and percentage drops of - 0.63%, - 0.50%, and - 0.49% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 228673, 27355, and 1137, and open interests were 611345, 134413, and 6839, with changes of 2998, 3576, and 98 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 3, and 80, compared to previous values of - 69, - 2, and 71 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (October 28), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.15 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.76 - $61.50. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.4 per barrel, down $1.22 or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64 - $65.76 [2]

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamental drivers of ethylene glycol are weak, and with the weakening support from crude oil, the market price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a weak trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Quotes: EG2601 closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan, with a position of 318,056 contracts, an increase of 1,901 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4152 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a position of 20,792 contracts, an increase of 341 contracts [7] - Market Performance: On the 28th, the main ethylene glycol futures opened at 4110 yuan/ton, reached a high of 4115 yuan/ton, a low of 4066 yuan/ton, settled at 4090 yuan/ton, and closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 130,492 contracts, and the position was 318,056 contracts [7] 2. Industry News - Crude Oil: OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from sanctions on a certain European country last week is fading, and traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions. The optimism surrounding Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17; the settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4144 - 4145 yuan/ton, down 40.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day; next week's spot negotiation was 4142 - 4144 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for November delivery was 4140 - 4142 yuan/ton. The current spot basis was at a premium of 75 - 76 yuan/ton over EG2601, next week's spot basis was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the November delivery basis was at a premium of 71 - 73 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operating Rate: The operating rate of the Chinese ethylene glycol industry was 64.41%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of ethylene-based ethylene glycol was 66.57%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of syngas-based ethylene glycol remained unchanged at 61.16%. The main changes in plant operations this period were the restart of Fujian United and a slight adjustment in the load of Hainan Refining & Chemical's plant [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]