| | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 5月 | | | | 1月 | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7175 | 7200 | 7183 | 7070 | 7223 | 7169 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7081 | 6991 | 7071 | 6948 | 6998 | 7020 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 94 | 209 | 112 | 122 | 225 | 149 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 1.33% | 2.99% | 1.58% | 1.76% | 3.22% | 2.12% | | 场 | 成交量 | 1745 | 1035216 | 185624 | 2167 | 1031797 | 229863 | | | 持仓量 | 2208 | 436928 | 102815 | 4260 | 502966 | 134631 | | | 持仓量增减 | ...

20260302申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信 ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。 如因投资者将本报 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, polyolefins mainly declined. From a fundamental perspective, the market is currently focused on the expectation of improved supply, and the influence of macro - factors on commodities has increased. In February, polyolefins clearly followed cost fluctuations. Given the current supply - demand situation, the potential volatility of costs is greater, making the market more concerned about the impact of cost fluctuations on the chemical industry. Looking forward to the post - festival market, the driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the focus is on the gradual manifestation of post - Spring Festival resumption of work on the demand side. On the other hand, the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro - factors. Under loose monetary conditions, the impact of changes in the Middle East situation on crude oil and chemical products tends to increase [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6720, 6644, and 6709 respectively, with price drops of - 80 (- 1.18%), - 90 (- 1.34%), and - 72 (- 1.06%) compared to the day before. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6581, 6568, and 6593 respectively, with price drops of - 64 (- 0.96%), - 80 (- 1.20%), and - 81 (- 1.21%) [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 253, 311876, and 28087 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 489, 287737, and 26029 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 1236, 484194, and 67043 respectively, with changes of + 154, - 17121, and - 2589. For PP, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 2955, 454028, and 107908 respectively, with changes of + 282, - 25314, and - 2501 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 76, - 65, and - 11 respectively, compared to previous values of 66, - 47, and - 19. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 13, - 25, and 12 respectively, compared to previous values of - 3, - 26, and 29 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2191 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - Before the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and a Middle Eastern country and due to increased economic uncertainty after the latest US tariffs, international oil prices eased but remained close to a six - month high. On Monday (February 23), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for April 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.31 per barrel, down $0.17 (0.26%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.38 - $67.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $71.49 per barrel, down $0.27 (0.38%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $70.69 - $72.50 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly, with Sinopec and PetroChina keeping prices stable for linear LL and拉丝PP. The market currently focuses on supply improvement expectations, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. Short - term polyolefins follow cost fluctuations. The current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions should be gradually controlled [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6800, 6734, and 6781 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 54 (- 0.79%), - 53 (- 0.78%), and - 55 (- 0.80%) yuan/ton. For拉丝PP, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6645, 6648, and 6674 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 36 (- 0.54%), - 45 (- 0.67%), and - 47 (- 0.70%) yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 171, 258012, and 18078 respectively, while for拉丝PP, they were 56, 210709, and 14456 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 1082, 501315, and 69632 respectively, with changes of 54, - 2602, and 202 respectively. For拉丝PP, the open interests were 2673, 479342, and 110409 respectively, with changes of - 12, - 7495, and - 1177 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 66, - 47, and - 19 respectively, compared with previous values of 67, - 49, and - 18. For拉丝PP, the current spreads were - 3, - 26, and 29 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, - 28, and 40 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Most prices were stable compared with the previous day [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝PP, the price ranges were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Thursday (February 12), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 (2.77%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $65.1. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.52 per barrel, down $1.88 (2.71%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.09 - $69.85 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures showed a narrow - range consolidation. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the market focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. In the short - term, polyolefins follow cost fluctuations. Currently, the driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions need to be gradually controlled [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6854, 6787, and 6836 respectively, with price increases of 15, 12, and 10 and percentage increases of 0.22%, 0.18%, and 0.15% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6681, 6693, and 6721 respectively, with price increases of 10, 5, and 14 and percentage increases of 0.15%, 0.07%, and 0.21% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 340, 278339, and 19923 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 113, 246301, and 17871 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 1028, 503917, and 69430 respectively, with changes of 254, - 8697, and - 461 respectively. For PP, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 2685, 486837, and 111586 respectively, with changes of 12, - 1731, and - 1024 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 67, - 49, and - 18 respectively, compared with previous values of 64, - 51, and - 13. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 12, - 28, and 40 respectively, compared with previous values of - 17, - 19, and 36 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2250 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some remaining the same as the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively, with some remaining the same as the previous values [2] News - On Wednesday (February 11), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.63 per barrel, up $0.67 or 1.05% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.15 - $65.83. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.40 per barrel, up $0.60 or 0.87% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69 - $70.72 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. From a fundamental perspective, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. In the short term, polyolefins fluctuate with costs. Overall, the current spot drivers for polyolefins are relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions need to be gradually controlled [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6839, 6775, and 6826 respectively, with increases of 51, 54, and 49, and percentage increases of 0.75%, 0.80%, and 0.72% respectively. The trading volumes were 70, 282260, and 21211, and the open interests were 774, 512614, and 69891, with changes of 35, -5995, and -1078 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6671, 6688, and 6707 respectively, with increases of 43, 58, and 46, and percentage increases of 0.65%, 0.87%, and 0.69% respectively. The trading volumes were 134, 257385, and 20657, and the open interests were 2673, 488568, and 112610, with changes of -7, -1773, and 1575 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 64, -51, and -13 respectively, compared to previous values of 67, -56, and -11. For PP, the current spreads were -17, -19, and 36, compared to previous values of -2, -31, and 33 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2244 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 627 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream and Products**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6650 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton, compared to previous ranges of 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (February 10), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, down $0.40 or 0.62% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.65 - $64.71. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.8 per barrel, down $0.24 or 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.44 - $69.49 [2]

Group 1 - The report focuses on the polyolefin (LL&PP) market and provides data on futures and spot markets [1][2] Group 2 - Futures market data for LL and PP include prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interest, and spreads [2] - Spot market data include raw materials, semi - finished products, and mid - stream market prices [2] Group 3 - On February 9, 2026, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.36 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.27% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.62 - $64.88. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.04 per barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.02 - $69.45 [2] Group 4 - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. For linear LL, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were significantly lowered. For拉丝 PP, prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable [2] - The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. Oil price rebound is hindered, and polyolefins are gradually cooling down. The current spot - driven force for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2]

Group 1 - The report is about the futures of polyolefins (LL&PP), including their performance in the futures and spot markets, raw material information, and market comments and strategies [1][2] Group 2 - Futures market: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6866, 6812, and 6864 respectively, with price increases of 16, 35, and 36 and percentage increases of 0.23%, 0.52%, and 0.53%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6686, 6691, and 6723 respectively, with price increases of 25, 15, and 13 and percentage increases of 0.38%, 0.22%, and 0.19%. The trading volumes and open - interest changes are also provided [2] Group 3 - Spot market: Raw materials include methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, etc., and their current and previous values are given. For the mid - stream, the price ranges in different markets (East China, North China, South China) of LL and PP are provided, and the comparison between current and previous values shows some price changes [2] Group 4 - Market news: On Friday (February 6th), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.55 per barrel, up $0.26 or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.05 per barrel, up $0.50 or 0.74% from the previous trading day [2] Group 5 - Market comments and strategies: Polyolefin futures closed up at a low level. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the market focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of the macro - economy on commodities is increasing. Currently, the driving force of polyolefin spot is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2]