智通财经APP获悉，周五，三大指数收跌。知情人士透露，美国正致力于与印度达成一项临时贸易协 议，拟将对该国加征的关税税率降至20%以下。知情人士称，与本周收到加税通知的众多国家不同，印 度预计不会收到关税要求函件，双方可能通过联合声明宣布这项贸易安排。 特朗普周四表示，欧盟可能会在周五收到一封关于关税税率的信函，这让华盛顿与欧盟的贸易谈判前景 变得不确定。他还宣布，自8月1日起对所有加拿大进口商品征收35%关税。 【原油】国际油价11日上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.88美 元，收于每桶68.45美元，涨幅为2.82%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.72美元，收于每桶 70.36美元，涨幅为2.51%。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌279.13点，跌幅为0.63%，报44371.51点；纳指跌45.14点，跌幅为0.22%，报 20585.53点；标普500指数跌20.71点，跌幅为0.33%，报6259.75点。英特尔(INTC.US)跌1.64%，苹果 (AAPL.US)跌0.59%，英伟达(NVDA.US)涨0.5%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.43%，百度(B ...

现货钯金涨幅超5 %，铂金大涨超3 % 7月11日，美股开盘后全线下跌，黄金、比特币大涨。消息面上，据央视新闻，特朗普再度怒 批鲍威尔，市场中，又有机构预测美联储降息时间推迟。 黄金、铂金、白银集体大涨！现货白银创1 4年新高 贵金属行情爆发，黄金、白银明显上涨，截至23:30发稿，现货黄金涨超1%，站上3364美元/ 盎司，被誉为"黄金平替"的白银和铂金涨幅更大，目前均涨逾3%。 | | W | | --- | --- | | . | | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX铝 | 1277.50 | 6.69% | | PA.NYM | | | | 现货把金(美元/ | 1199.69 | 5.62% | | SPTPDUSDOZ.IDC | | | | COMEX白银 | 38.870 | 4.20% | | SI.CMX | | | | COMEX M-B | 38.8630 | 4.19% | | QI.CMX | | | | NYMEX铝 | 1463.5 | 3.61% | | PL.NYM | | | | 伦敦银现 | 38.312 | ...

WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至2%，报66.722美元/桶。布伦特原油期货向上触及70美元/桶，最新报70.022美 元/桶，日内上涨2.01%。 ...

智通财经7月11日电，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至2%，报66.722美元/桶。布伦特原油期货向上触及70美元/ 桶，最新报70.022美元/桶，日内上涨2.01%。 ...

智通财经7月11日电，布伦特原油期货涨幅扩大至1%，报69.33美元/桶。 ...

7月11日（周五），国际原油价格继续承压回落。美原油交投于每桶66.90美元附近，较前一交易日下跌 逾2%；布伦特原油期货收于68.64美元，跌幅2.21%；美国原油期货收于66.57美元，跌幅高达2.65%。市 场情绪明显趋向谨慎，主要因特朗普关税政策引发全球经济增长担忧，以及OPEC+产量政策进入关键 转折阶段。 原油市场正处于多空博弈的关键节点。一方面，特朗普的贸易政策引发宏观层面的需求忧虑；另一方 面，OPEC+增产预期正在实质性改变供应格局。在地缘政治趋缓、美元走强与政策路径未明的背景 下，油价短期内或仍面临下行风险，投资者需密切关注8月初关税措施落地情况以及OPEC+会议可能释 放的新信号。 DLSM外汇平台认为美国总统特朗普近期宣布的新一轮关税计划成为压倒市场情绪的关键变量。随着8 月1日多个贸易措施临近生效，投资者忧虑全球贸易活动和经济增长将受到抑制，从而影响石油需求前 景。美联储6月17-18日会议纪要亦释放偏谨慎信号，多位官员对关税引发的通胀压力表示担忧，仅有少 数官员支持近期降息，使市场对货币政策缓解经济压力的预期降温。 供给端方面，OPEC+动向也引发市场重新评估供需平衡前景。据悉，该 ...

一 、涨跌幅表格 n 涨跌幅变化说明 大宗商品周度强弱排行 分析师：张天骜 助理分析师：黄思源 从业资格证：F3002734 从业资格证：F03124114 投资咨询资格证：Z0012680 上周，周涨跌幅变化最大的期货品种是布伦特原油，增长了14.6690%；月涨 跌幅变化最大的期货品种是欧线集运，增长了18.0858%；年涨跌幅变化最大的期 货品种是多晶硅，增长了5.4099%。其中，农产品年涨跌幅变化最大的期货品种是 红枣，减少了5.2947%；黑色金属年涨跌幅变化最大的期货品种是热卷，增长了 2.3164%；有色金属年涨跌幅变化最大的期货品种是纽约银，增长了3.3171%；能 源化工年涨跌幅变化最大的期货品种是多晶硅，增长了5.4099%；金融年涨跌幅变 恒生指数，减少了1.8350%。 一 、涨跌幅表格 | | | | | | | 大宗商品期货涨跌幅20250707 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 名称 | 科学 | 本周涨幅(%) | 本月涨幅(%) | 本年涨 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 5. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大豆期货涨 0.67%报 1014 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨 0.12%报 416.5 美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货 涨 1.28%报 554.5 美分/蒲式耳。 1. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 2.21%，报 66.87 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 1.91%，报 68.85 美元/桶。市场对全球需求前景的担忧加剧，叠加美 国 EIA 原油库存意外增加 707 万桶，远超市场预期，导致油价承压下行。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.36%报 3333.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 2.72%报 37.63 美元/盎司。美国财政赤字和关税政策加剧通 胀担忧，全球央行持续增持黄金支撑市场。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期镍涨 2.04%报 15285.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 1.26%报 2777.00 美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

智通财经7月11日早间新闻精选 5、特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示，中方一贯反对泛化国家安全概念， 我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。 6、有消息称智元机器人上市目的地为港股，并在推进港股IPO事宜。对此，智元机器人回应《科创板 日报》称不属实。 11、中国重工上半年净利同比预增182%-238%。中国船舶预计上半年净利润同比增长98%-119%。沪电 股份预计上半年净利润同比增长44.63%-53.40%。天保基建预计上半年净利润同比增长1582%–2329%。 1、美国商务部长卢特尼克近日表示，他与其他美国高级贸易官员可能会在8月初与中方谈判代表会面。 对此，商务部新闻发言人何咏前10日表示，目前，中美双方在多个层级就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟 通。 2、人力资源社会保障部、财政部日前印发《关于2025年调整退休人员基本养老金的通知》，2025年退 休人员养老金上调2%。 3、上海市国资委党委7月10日召开中心组学习会，围绕加密货币与稳定币的发展趋势及应对策略开展学 习。 4、在昨天下午召开的商务部例行新闻发布会上，商务部新闻发言人何咏前表示，今 ...