1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. - For polypropylene, the cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. - For PX, the load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - For PTA, the short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply situation has slightly improved, but the overall load is still high and imports are at a high level in December. The port inventory build - up will continue, and there is a risk of further price rebounds due to potential increased overhauls [31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The U.S. Department of Energy postponed data release due to the Christmas holiday. INE's main crude oil futures rose 0.10 yuan/barrel, or 0.02%, to 442.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 15.00 yuan/ton, or 0.61%, to 2489.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, or 0.33%, to 3016.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and observe OPEC's export behavior when prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 35 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 2.5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract fell 10 yuan/ton to 2162 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 23 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further depleted, but future port pressure remains due to high imports and potential olefin plant overhauls. The supply is at a high level, and the market is expected to consolidate at a low level. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 30 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short term due to reserve needs and increased compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. The strategy is to consider buying on dips [8][9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Commodities generally rose, and rubber prices increased significantly. Rubber winter - storage buying demand is a bullish factor. Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls focus on factors such as limited production in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases, and improved demand in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and potential under - performance of supply - side benefits. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel tire inventory increased. As of December 14, 2025, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 1.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons, or 2.6%. Spot prices of some rubber products also changed. [9][10][11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. Short - term operations are recommended, and hold the position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 for hedging [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 24 yuan to 4757 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 277 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan/ton), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 120 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of caustic soda was 715 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%; the calcium - carbide method was 77.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 45.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%. Factory inventory was 329,000 tons (down 16,000 tons), and social inventory was 1.057 million tons (down 3,000 tons) [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a historical low, but supply reduction is limited and production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, while exports to India are expected to remain high. The overall supply - demand situation is poor, and the strategy is to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5315 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5434 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the pure benzene basis was - 119 yuan/ton (widened by 27 yuan/ton). The spot price of styrene rose 25 yuan/ton to 6625 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active styrene contract rose 40 yuan/ton to 6638 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 13 yuan/ton (weakened by 15 yuan/ton). The BZN spread was 127.75 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton), the non - integrated EB device profit was - 198.35 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton (narrowed by 19 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 69.13%, up 1.02%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 139,300 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.60%, down 1.67%; the PS operating rate was 54.50%, down 3.80%; the EPS operating rate was 51.81%, down 1.96%; the ABS operating rate was 71.00%, up 0.47% [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - to - low with large room for upward valuation repair. Supply is increasing while demand in the off - season is decreasing. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6390 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6325 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 65 yuan/ton (strengthened by 68 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 82.66%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 458,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,200 tons; the trader inventory was 32,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,200 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.45%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4 yuan/ton [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC+ plans to halt production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene is rising, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The long - term contradiction has shifted, and the strategy is to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 16 yuan/ton (strengthened by 12 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%. The production enterprise inventory was 533,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons; the trader inventory was 187,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,100 tons; the port inventory was 68,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side is expected to have a supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, and demand is seasonally oscillating. The overall inventory pressure is high, but there may be support in the first quarter of next year [23]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 64 yuan to 7358 yuan, the PX CFR rose 5 US dollars to 901 US dollars, and the basis was 24 yuan (up 43 yuan) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was 4 yuan (down 12 yuan). The PX load: China's load was 88.1%, unchanged from the previous month; Asia's load was 78.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%. In terms of devices, Tianjin Petrochemical in China shut down, a 260,000 - ton device of Japan's Eneos restarted, and a 200,000 - ton device of Idemitsu was restarting. The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of December, an increase of 8,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 4.074 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 48,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 361 US dollars (up 7 US dollars), South Korea's PX - MX was 154 US dollars (unchanged), and the naphtha crack spread was 87 US dollars (down 1 US dollar) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load remains high, but downstream PTA overhauls are frequent. PX is expected to have a small inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 58 yuan to 5152 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 5050 yuan, the basis was - 13 yuan (up 6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 94 yuan (up 16 yuan). The PTA load was 73.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 19 was 2.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 37 yuan to 214 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market rose 16 yuan to 325 yuan [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply has high overhauls, and the demand side has low inventory and profit pressure but will decline in the off - season. PTA processing fees have limited upward space, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract was unchanged at 3818 yuan, the East China spot price rose 80 yuan to 3653 yuan, the basis was - 8 yuan (up 5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 73 yuan (down 11 yuan). The ethylene glycol load was 72.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The downstream load was 89.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The import arrival forecast was 118,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on December 24 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 969 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1052 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 123 yuan. The cost of ethylene was unchanged at 745 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell

Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current fundamental drivers of ethylene glycol are weak, and with the weakening support from crude oil, the market price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a weak trend [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Quotes: EG2601 closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan, with a position of 318,056 contracts, an increase of 1,901 contracts; EG2605 closed at 4152 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, with a position of 20,792 contracts, an increase of 341 contracts [7] - Market Performance: On the 28th, the main ethylene glycol futures opened at 4110 yuan/ton, reached a high of 4115 yuan/ton, a low of 4066 yuan/ton, settled at 4090 yuan/ton, and closed at 4069 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 130,492 contracts, and the position was 318,056 contracts [7] 2. Industry News - Crude Oil: OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production may exceed expectations again. The boost from sanctions on a certain European country last week is fading, and traders doubt the implementation effect of the sanctions. The optimism surrounding Sino-US trade negotiations has little impact on oil prices. International oil prices rose in the early session and then closed lower for two consecutive days. On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17; the settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation this week was 4144 - 4145 yuan/ton, down 40.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day; next week's spot negotiation was 4142 - 4144 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for November delivery was 4140 - 4142 yuan/ton. The current spot basis was at a premium of 75 - 76 yuan/ton over EG2601, next week's spot basis was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over EG2601, and the November delivery basis was at a premium of 71 - 73 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operating Rate: The operating rate of the Chinese ethylene glycol industry was 64.41%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of ethylene-based ethylene glycol was 66.57%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate of syngas-based ethylene glycol remained unchanged at 61.16%. The main changes in plant operations this period were the restart of Fujian United and a slight adjustment in the load of Hainan Refining & Chemical's plant [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]