Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. The inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged at the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories increased slightly, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased seasonally, with the absolute inventory at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spreads are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price faces downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread forecast for the fourth quarter is raised [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, WTI crude oil price decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.61, and DUBAI decreased by $0.52. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.02, WTI - BRENT increased by $0.12, and DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.16. Other related price indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - U.S. President Trump will talk with Russian President Putin in the near future. Brazil exported 9.01 million barrels of crude oil in August, compared with 6.98 million barrels in the same period last year. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day compared with July, reaching 27.84 million barrels per day. U.S. President Trump called on European leaders to stop buying Russian oil [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 29, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 0.58% increase), the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.282 million barrels per day, 2.47% higher than the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.742 million barrels per day, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries increased slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4]