Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the absolute price declined on Friday. The inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged at the end of the peak refinery operation season in summer. The spreads of Brent and WTI crude oil strengthened slightly, while the spread of Dubai crude oil strengthened significantly. The refining margins of European and American refineries declined slightly, the gasoline crack spread in the United States strengthened, and the European diesel crack spread fluctuated. The balance sheet is expected to have a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. Global oil inventories increased slightly, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased seasonally, with the absolute inventory at a historically low level in the same period, Cushing inventories decreased, and U.S. gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Institutions estimate that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil spreads are expected to face pressure. Recently, the absolute price of crude oil has been fluctuating. Pay attention to the switch between peak and off - peak seasons. The market focuses on the medium - and long - term surplus pattern, and the absolute price faces downward pressure. It is expected that the price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $60 per barrel. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the European diesel crack spread forecast for the fourth quarter is raised [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Data - From August 29 to September 4, 2025, WTI crude oil price decreased by $0.49, BRENT decreased by $0.61, and DUBAI decreased by $0.52. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.02, WTI - BRENT increased by $0.12, and DUBAI - BRT increased by $0.16. Other related price indicators also showed corresponding changes [3] 2. Daily News - U.S. President Trump will talk with Russian President Putin in the near future. Brazil exported 9.01 million barrels of crude oil in August, compared with 6.98 million barrels in the same period last year. OPEC's oil production in August increased by 360,000 barrels per day compared with July, reaching 27.84 million barrels per day. U.S. President Trump called on European leaders to stop buying Russian oil [3][4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 29, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a 0.58% increase), the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 21.282 million barrels per day, 2.47% higher than the same period last year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels (a 0.13% increase), and commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.742 million barrels per day, an increase of 508,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. From August 22 - 29, the operating rate of major refineries increased slightly, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, and both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries weakened, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak of summer crude oil demand is ending, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been delivered as expected. The market is focusing on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for buying Russian oil. [6] - On August 21, India stated that it would continue to purchase Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. The potential impact of this round of sanctions is significant, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. [6] - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is rising, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, US commercial inventories are decreasing, gasoline inventories are decreasing, and diesel inventories are increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. [6] - Currently, refineries are at the peak of their operation. The latest estimate is that refinery maintenance in October worldwide will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil monthly spread is expected to be under pressure. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward trend, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will fall to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the expected adjustment of autumn maintenance in Europe, the crack spread price of European diesel in the fourth quarter is expected to be raised. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From August 20 - 26, 2025, the prices of WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, and other oil - related products fluctuated. For example, WTI decreased by $1.55, BRENT decreased by $1.58, and DUBAI decreased by $0.27. [3] - The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 20 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 25 yuan. [3] - The price of Japan's naphtha CFR increased, and the spread between Japan's naphtha CFR and BRENT increased by 19.11. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 22 was - 974,000 barrels, lower than the expected - 1,725,000 barrels and the previous value of - 2,417,000 barrels. [3] - Russia has increased its August crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day due to refinery attacks, but there are uncertainties in export arrangements. [3] - India plans to reduce its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks as the US is about to impose tariffs. The expected daily purchase volume in October and later will be 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels, compared with an average daily purchase of 1.8 million barrels in the first half of this year. [4] - Iran's crude oil export volume in August has declined, with an average daily export of about 1.5 million barrels so far this month, down from 1.7 million barrels from March - May, affected by domestic demand and US sanctions. [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. [5] - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [5] - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong's local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased. [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak summer demand season for crude oil has ended, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The supply from South America has been realized, and the market is focused on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for purchasing Russian oil. On August 21, India stated that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. - On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. This round of sanctions has a potentially significant impact, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September has increased, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories have slightly decreased, US commercial inventories have decreased, gasoline inventories have decreased, and diesel inventories have increased. This week, the refining margins in Europe and the US have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. - Currently, refineries are at their peak operating rates. The latest estimate shows that refinery maintenance in October globally will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the monthly spread of crude oil is expected to face pressure. - In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will decline to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the autumn maintenance expectations in Europe, the crack spread price expectation for European diesel in the fourth quarter has been raised. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Iran killed six armed men who intended to attack a key facility in the country. These armed men were equipped with US - made automatic weapons and other equipment, and seven of them were foreign nationals. The seized documents indicated that they had an Israeli background and might have been trained by the Israeli intelligence and special operations agency (Mossad). - In August, there were continuous supply disruptions of 95 - octane gasoline at gas stations in Crimea due to temporary difficulties in transporting light petroleum products across the Kerch Strait. There was also a gasoline shortage in the Russian Far East. In the Trans - Baikal Territory, the sale of 95 - octane gasoline was temporarily restricted because of a delay in the shipment of gasoline from refineries. - According to the British Financial Times, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has ruled out the possibility of direct negotiations with the US and accused Washington of trying to force Iran to submit. [3][4] Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. - EIA report: In the week ending August 15, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending August 15 were - 2.72 million barrels, compared with an expected - 915,000 barrels and a previous value of - 792,000 barrels. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending August 15 were 2.343 million barrels, compared with an expected 928,000 barrels and a previous value of 714,000 barrels. - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel at Chinese refineries both decreased, with gasoline inventories decreasing and diesel inventories increasing. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries also declined month - on - month. [4][5] Price Data - From August 18 - 22, the price of WTI crude oil increased by $0.14, Brent by $0.06, and Dubai by $0.11. The price of SC crude oil increased by 2.70 yuan, and OMAN by $0.05. - The price of domestic gasoline remained unchanged, while the price of domestic diesel increased by 17 yuan. The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased by 2.05 dollars, and the price of Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $0.6. - Other spreads such as Brent 1 - 2 monthly spread, WTI - BRENT, etc. also had corresponding changes. [3]