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国际能源署:明年全球石油市场将面临创纪录供应过剩
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-13 18:10
Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports a record oversupply in the global oil market for next year due to slowing demand growth and surging supply [1] - IEA has raised its global oil supply forecasts for this year and next, expecting an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and 1.9 million bpd next year, significantly higher than previous estimates [1] - The increase in supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries, with OPEC+ expected to increase supply by 370,000 bpd this year and 520,000 bpd next year [1] Group 2 - OPEC has raised its global oil demand forecast for next year while lowering the supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ countries, highlighting market uncertainty [2] - IEA's demand growth rate has slowed, with oil inventories expected to accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, surpassing the average accumulation rate during the pandemic [2] - The supply surplus has been a major factor affecting global oil prices this year, with U.S. gasoline demand lower than previous years and crude oil inventories increasing by over 10 million barrels [3] Group 3 - Domestic oil inventories in China are at a multi-year high, with a 7.1% month-on-month increase in crude oil imports in June [3] - The geopolitical dynamics, particularly U.S.-Russia relations, are influencing market expectations regarding Russian supply [3] - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor geopolitical developments, domestic inventory management, and OPEC+ production increases in the short term [3] Group 4 - OPEC+ production increases are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, but potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide some support for prices [4] - The analysis of oil price trends should consider supply-demand dynamics, financial market fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts, as well as U.S. political developments [4]