Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost side should focus on the meeting between the leaders of the US and Russia on August 15th and Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia. In the medium term, as global refineries reach their annual peak operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift from strong to weak. With the addition of new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia, leading to a notable decrease in supply [2]. - In terms of PX, the PXN was $267/ton in the previous trading session (a $6.50/ton increase compared to the previous period). Recently, the operating rate of PX in China will gradually recover, and with the production of MX, the supply is abundant. The supply of PX is expected to increase, but the increase will be limited. Due to the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet has shifted from inventory depletion to a loose balance, but PX overall remains in a low - inventory state. Without obvious negative factors on the demand side, considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA plants, there is support for the lower limit of PXN. However, the floating price of PX has recently shown some instability, and attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was - 13 yuan/ton (a 1 - yuan/ton decrease compared to the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 179 yuan/ton (an 8 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period), and the processing fee on the main contract's futures price was 379 yuan/ton (a 7 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). With the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving factories, the inventory pressure of filament has significantly decreased. The polyester operating rate remains strong in the short term. Due to short - term PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, but major suppliers are actively selling, which is suppressing prices. In August, PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up. With the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 88.8% (a 0.7% increase compared to the previous period). In late July, driven by the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, terminal weaving factories concentrated on replenishing raw materials, and the operating rates of weaving and texturing factories rebounded. However, since the demand has not substantially improved and it is just a transfer of inventory, the situation of poor orders and inventory build - up still persists. This week, the weaving operating rate has declined again, and it still needs to wait for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may gradually start in late August. In the short term, the polyester operating rate remains strong, and this week it has slightly increased. Looking at different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is manageable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. Attention should be paid to when the demand will pick up. After the phased reduction of filament inventory, the short - term pressure to reduce production has been relieved, and there may even be an increase in the operating rate. Attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up smoothly in early August. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major factories have been gradually implemented, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain stable in the short term, and the increase in the operating rate may occur at the end of August or in September [3]. - For PF, the spot production profit was 88 yuan/ton (a 10 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). Currently, due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. Overall, the demand for PF has slightly improved but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts [3]. - For PR, the spot processing fee for bottle chips was 421 yuan/ton (a 14 - yuan/ton increase compared to the previous period). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain reduced or suspended production in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. It is expected that the operating rate of bottle chips will remain stable in the short term, and with the extension of reduced or suspended production, the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover [4]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side trading, a neutral stance is taken on PX/PTA/PF/PR, and attention should be paid to the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes. For PX, PX plants will be restarted in a concentrated manner in August, and with the production of MX, the supply is abundant. The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the balance sheet has shifted from inventory depletion to a loose balance, but PX overall remains in a low - inventory state. Attention should be paid to the negotiation of PX floating prices. For TA, with the concentrated replenishment of terminal weaving factories, the inventory of filament factories has significantly decreased, and the polyester operating rate remains strong in the short term. However, PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market supply is abundant. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of major suppliers. For PF, the demand for PF has slightly improved but is still limited, and the overall willingness to hold positions is low. The near - month contract is suppressed by the logic of mandatory cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, several major factories have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee for bottle chips will return to range - bound trading after recovery. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross - product trading, short the PTA processing fee at high levels: PX - 0.655PTA; long the PR processing fee at low levels: PR2510 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.335MEG2601. For cross - period trading, conduct reverse arbitrage on PTA2509 - 2601 and PF2509 - 2511 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and cross - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and cross - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [10][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures cover the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operating Rates - Information on the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [29][32][34] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester short - fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [49][51][60] 7. PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester short - fiber load, polyester short - fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, original - recycled price difference (1.4D polyester short - fiber - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure - polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][71][77] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip price difference, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [85][87][96]