1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - **External - Market Prices**: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - **Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - **Refined - Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - **Industrial - Chain Operating Rates**: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market focus is on the Iran situation, with rising crude oil prices due to tensions. The PXN of PX has been significantly compressed, and the supply interruption in the Middle East has pushed up the price of naphtha. However, the weak downstream polyester demand restricts the upward momentum of PX. The PTA load has decreased, and there has been inventory accumulation from March to April. But with cost support, the PTA trend is strong, and the processing fee is compressed. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1]. - The polyester operating rate is 86.8% (down 0.8% month - on - month), and the loads of polyester and weaving have decreased. The downstream price has difficulty rising, and the production and sales of filament have been continuously sluggish. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has begun to accumulate, and there is a negative feedback of production reduction. If the cost - side price remains high, the downstream production reduction may increase [2]. - For PF, the spot production profit is - 117 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton month - on - month). The downstream is in a wait - and - see attitude, with moderate restocking at the stage low and less high - level transactions. The short - fiber factory's device has been started, and the load has increased. Due to weak sales, the factory inventory has increased, and the processing difference fluctuates greatly. For PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips is 1107 yuan/ton (up 194 yuan/ton month - on - month). Affected by the situation in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, the upstream raw materials have reduced production and load, and the price of polyester raw materials has risen significantly. The price of polyester bottle chip factories has mostly followed the increase. The load of polyester bottle chip devices has remained stable with a slight increase, and the further improvement space is temporarily limited. The mainstream factories have cut some contract volumes, the circulating supply is still tight, the inventory of bottle chip factories remains low, and the bottle chip factories mainly support the price [2]. - The strategy is to cautiously go long and hedge PX/PTA/PF/PR at low prices. Before seeing actual troop withdrawal or negotiations, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is still difficult to be smooth, and there are still cost support and supply concerns. However, there is negative feedback on the demand side, and the current trading is difficult. It is not advisable to chase up or kill down. Attention should be paid to further changes in the start - up of Japanese and Korean refineries [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][9][14] 3.2 Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures include PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][18] 3.3 International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asian PX load [26][29][31] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][39][40] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [47][49][57] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [68][75][78] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][92][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile market rating for p - xylene (PX), purified terephthalic acid (PTA), and monoethylene glycol (MEG) [1] Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term volatile market due to the conflict between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX. Consider buying on dips [8] - PTA is in a cost - demand game. Don't chase the high, buy on dips, and maintain positive spreads when the 5 - 9 month spread is below 50 yuan/ton. It is expected to be strong in the medium - term, and pay attention to the long EB and short PTA hedge [8][9] - MEG is in a short - term high - level volatile market. Supply is decreasing, imports will shrink in April, and port inventory is expected to be depleted faster. The unilateral price is still strong, and maintain positive spreads for the 5 - 9 month spread [9] Summary by Related Contents Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 9700, 6684, 5218, 8246, and 740.6 respectively, with changes of - 140, - 84, - 141, - 96, and - 22.9, and percentage changes of - 1.42%, - 1.24%, - 2.63%, - 1.15%, and - 3.00% [1] - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, MOPJ naphtha, and Dated Brent on the previous day were 1251.67 dollars/ton, 6660 yuan/ton, 5275 yuan/ton, 1207.5 dollars/ton, and 123.48 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 24 dollars/ton, - 170 yuan/ton, - 154 yuan/ton, 1 dollar/ton, and 2.98 dollars/barrel [1] - Spot processing fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread on the previous day were 120.67 dollars/ton, 133.46 yuan/ton, - 133.31 yuan/ton, 570.09 yuan/ton, and - 4.34 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 14.5 dollars/ton, 11.12 yuan/ton, - 192 yuan/ton, - 75.54 yuan/ton, and 0 dollars/ton [1] Market Conditions - PX: On March 31, the PX price dropped. The PX - naphtha spread narrowed. The naphtha market was relatively strong in the short - term [1][4] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in South China reduced its load to 60 - 70% [4] - MEG: Affected by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the statistical period was extended to April 6. A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan was restarting [5] - Polyester: A 100,000 - ton polyester plant in Xiaoshan shut down for maintenance. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 31 were weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were also light [5] - Textile and clothing: From January to February 2026, online retail sales of goods and services were 3,254.58 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. Online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 18% [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is oscillating due to the game between expectations of supply and demand reduction. The cost side is influenced by the Iran situation, driving up crude oil and PX prices. However, PX's upward momentum is limited by weak downstream polyester demand, and PTA shows strong trends supported by cost but with compressed processing fees. In the medium to long term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve after the end of the concentrated capacity release cycle [1]. - Polyester and weaving loads are decreasing, downstream prices are slow to follow price increases, and inventory is accumulating. If the cost side remains high, downstream production cuts may increase. PF has negative production profits but is improving, and short - fiber factory loads are rising. PR has stable to slightly increasing device loads, tight circulating supplies, and low inventory, with factories mainly holding up prices [2]. - For trading strategies, it is advisable to cautiously go long and hedge for PX/PTA/PF/PR at low prices. Avoid chasing up or selling down due to the difficulty of trading with cost support and supply concerns on one hand and negative demand feedback on the other. Pay attention to further changes in the start - up of Japanese and Korean refineries [3]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [47][49][62] PF Detailed Data - Figures contain polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [66][75][78] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][89][94]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the differentiation between the upstream of the agricultural industry and the mid - stream of the chemical industry, and provides an overview of mid - view events and industry trends [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Mid - view Event Overview Production Industry - On March 30, the World Data Organization was established in Beijing, aiming to promote global data cooperation and governance, and explore efficient exchange and reasonable utilization of data. It covers 14 industries and has a global layout and a diversified membership ecosystem [1] - On March 30, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on further implementing the Anti - Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to comprehensively rectify "involution - style" competition in key industries such as platform economy, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles [1] Service Industry - Hangzhou issued an optimized housing provident fund use policy, which will take effect on April 1, 2026. The maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be increased from 1.3 million yuan to 1.8 million yuan, and the calculation multiple of the individual loanable amount will be adjusted from 15 times to 20 times [1] 2. Industry Overview Upstream - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper and zinc prices have slightly rebounded - In the agricultural sector, egg prices continue to rise, while pork prices decline - In the energy sector, international crude oil prices have slightly declined [2] Mid - stream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate has declined, the polyester operating rate is at a low level, and the PTA operating rate has increased - In the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants is at a medium level - In the agricultural sector, the operating rate of pig products has increased [2] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights has declined [2] 3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - The report provides price data for various industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, energy, chemical, and real estate on March 30, including prices of products like corn, eggs, copper, crude oil, etc., along with their year - on - year changes and trends in the past 5 days [34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX, PTA, and MEG are in a short - term volatile market, and their medium - term trends are still strong. The supply of MEG is tight, and its medium - term trend is also strong [2] - For PX, due to the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, the unilateral price is volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 100 yuan/ton, consider positive arbitrage [8] - For PTA, with the game between cost and demand, it is not advisable to chase high prices. Instead, buy on dips. The unilateral price is volatile and strong. When the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton, maintain positive arbitrage. It is recommended to go long on EB and short on PTA [9] - For MEG, due to the direct lack of supply, the trend is relatively strong. The unilateral price is still strong, and the 5 - 9 spread maintains positive arbitrage [9] Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Price Information**: The PX futures' yesterday's closing price was 9840, with a decline of 76 and a drop - rate of 0.77%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 242, up 32 from the previous day. The PX CFR China's yesterday's price was 1275.67 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread's yesterday's price was 120.67, down 14.5 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 100 - million - ton PX device in East China is expected to stop for maintenance tomorrow as planned and restart in early May. Another 70 - million - ton PX device's maintenance plan has been postponed, and the specific time is to be followed up [5] - **Market Situation**: The naphtha price rose at the end of the session. On March 30, the PX price increased, with three May Asian spot orders成交 at 1281, 1282, and 1282 respectively. The PX valuation on March 30 was 1276 dollars/ton, up 13 dollars from last Friday [4] PTA - **Price Information**: The PTA futures' yesterday's closing price was 6768, with a decline of 108 and a drop - rate of 1.57%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 88, down 32 from the previous day. The PTA's East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton yesterday, up 100 yuan from the previous day. The PTA processing fee's yesterday's price was 133.46, up 11.12 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: A 70 - million - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China restarted last weekend [5] - **Market Situation**: The PTA supply is sufficient, with the operating rate rising to around 82%. The downstream polyester operating rate has dropped to 86.9%. In the short term, the oversupply will affect the April contract and the early - April trend. However, in April, the PTA inventory will decline rapidly due to the reduction of PX supply [9] MEG - **Price Information**: The MEG futures' yesterday's closing price was 5359, with an increase of 80 and a rise - rate of 1.52%. The 5 - 9 spread's yesterday's closing price was 125, down 21 from the previous day. The MEG spot price was 5429 yesterday, up 259 from the previous day [4] - **Device Conditions**: On March 30, the MEG port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 1.075 billion tons, up 360,000 tons from the previous period. A 60 - million - ton unit of a 1.8 - billion - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene - glycol device in Shaanxi restarted and produced normally recently, and the second 60 - million - ton unit is planned to stop for maintenance on April 15 for about 20 days [5][6] - **Market Situation**: The ethylene - glycol supply will decrease significantly in April. The import volume will shrink, and the export from China will increase. The domestic ethylene - glycol device operating rate has dropped from 80% before the holiday to around 66%, and the coal - based devices are in the spring - maintenance stage, so the port inventory is expected to be depleted faster [9] Polyester - **Device Conditions**: The maintenance plan of a 30 - million - ton polyester device in a factory in Fujian was cancelled [6] - **Market Situation**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on March 30 were generally weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 20% by 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber factories were also weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 43% by 3 pm. However, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were strong over the weekend, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 200% [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The PTA market is affected by geopolitical issues, with rising crude oil prices providing cost support and driving up the PTA market. However, the supply - chain chaos and raw material bottlenecks limit the further production increase of polyester and may even lead to temporary production cuts. The Asian polyester industry chain may face a severe production decline risk in April due to the shortage of PX and MEG. The MEG market is also in a state of chaos due to the tense situation in the Middle East, with Northeast Asian refineries facing crude oil supply shortages and domestic refineries' ethylene glycol production being affected by raw material reduction [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil and PTA - SC**: INE crude oil price rose from 723.9 yuan/barrel on March 25, 2026, to 733.1 yuan/barrel on March 26, 2026, with a change of 9.20 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1331.3 yuan/ton to 1450.5 yuan/ton, a change of 119.14 yuan/ton. The PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2531 to 1.2723, a change of 0.0192 [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 1208 to 1233, with a change of 25. The PX - naphtha spread increased from 120 to 235, a change of 116 [2] - **PTA**: The PTA main contract futures price increased from 6592 yuan/ton to 6778 yuan/ton, a change of 186.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot price increased from 6470 to 6570, a change of 100.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 205.4 yuan/ton to 141.9 yuan/ton, a change of - 63.6 yuan/ton. The disk processing fee increased from 307.4 yuan/ton to 349.9 yuan/ton, a change of 42.4 yuan/ton. The main contract basis decreased from (68) to (70), a change of - 2.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 148915 to 149479, a change of 564 [2] - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 5036 yuan/ton to 5058 yuan/ton, a change of 22.0 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha changed from (353.18) to (353.37), a change of - 0.2. The MEG domestic price increased from 4946 to 4982, a change of 36.0. The main contract basis increased from - 60 to - 35, a change of 25.0 [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 83.53%, PTA start - up rate remained at 80.01%, MEG start - up rate remained at 52.27%, and polyester load remained at 85.41% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 9075 to 9050, a change of - 25.0. POY cash flow decreased from 636 to 514, a change of - 122.0. FDY150D/96F remained at 9330. FDY cash flow decreased from 391 to 294, a change of - 97.0. DTY150D/48F decreased from 10455 to 10390, a change of - 65.0. DTY cash flow decreased from 816 to 654, a change of - 162.0. The long - filament production and sales rate decreased from 30% to 19%, a change of - 11% [2] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 8060 to 8245, a change of 185. The polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from (29) to 59, a change of 88.0. The staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 78% to 55%, a change of - 23% [2] - **Polyester Chip**: The semi - bright chip increased from 7410 to 7550, a change of 140.0. The chip cash flow increased from (129) to (86), a change of 43.0. The chip production and sales rate increased from 26% to 30%, a change of 4% [2] 4. Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was shut down for maintenance around February 10 has returned to normal. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China that was operating at 50% capacity has returned to normal. A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China that was under maintenance in mid - January has returned to normal [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products on March 27, 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC. All products are rated as "oscillating", and the geopolitical situation is the main factor affecting the market [1][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices moved higher. WTI April contract closed up $4.16 to $94.48 per barrel, a 4.61% increase. Brent May contract closed up $5.79 to $108.01 per barrel, a 5.66% increase. SC2605 closed at 744.6 yuan per barrel, up 16.2 yuan per barrel, a 2.22% increase. Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day, but the duration is uncertain [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.18% at 4,393 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 1.34% at 5,066 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of both low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets remain strong. The short - term crack spreads of high and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4.17% at 4,543 yuan per ton. The expected domestic asphalt production in April 2026 is 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 22.4% month - on - month and 33.3% year - on - year. The short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [3][5] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6,778 yuan per ton, up 2.82%. EG2605 closed at 5,058 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. PX futures main contract 605 closed at 9,774 yuan per ton, up 2.86%. The short - term polyester price will fluctuate widely following the cost [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2605 rose 30 yuan per ton to 16,460 yuan per ton. The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5][6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline. The supply from Iranian plants may gradually recover, which may suppress the price increase, but the Iranian situation is unclear [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is in a de - stocking rhythm, but the short - term geopolitical risk pushes up the cost, compressing the downstream profit margin, and the subsequent demand growth may be hindered [6][7] - **PVC**: The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium carbide - based method has strengthened rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on March 26 and 25, 2026, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. [8] Market News - Market sentiment towards the geopolitical situation is cautious. The negotiation process between the US and Iran is difficult. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, it may lead to a loss of 13 - 14 million barrels of oil per day. The export volume of Yanbu Port and Fujairah Port has rebounded recently [10] Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the historical closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][21][22][24][26][28] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [30][32][34][36][39][40][41] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the historical spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [44][46][49][52][53][56][58] - **Inter - variety Spread**: It provides the historical spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt, BU/SC, ethylene glycol - PTA, PP - LLDPE, natural rubber - 20 - number rubber, etc. [60][62][64][68] - **Production Profit**: It shows the historical production profit and processing fee charts of various energy and chemical products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, ethylene - based ethylene glycol, etc. [70][72] Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including Deputy Director Zhong Meiyan, Research Director Du Bingqin, Analyst Di Yilin, and Analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds, honors, and research areas [75][76][77][78]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to decline due to reduced refinery loads and planned maintenance, while downstream product prices are rising, leading to improved supply - demand expectations. It may follow oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is to wait and see and shrink the EB05 - BZ05 spread on rallies [1]. - Styrene supply is stable with some装置restarts and maintenance. Demand is weak in procurement but the supply - demand situation remains tight. It also follows oil price fluctuations, and the strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [1]. LPG - No overall view is provided, but price, inventory, and开工率 data are presented, showing changes in various aspects such as prices, inventory levels, and开工率 of LPG - related products [2]. Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in Southeast Asia, and domestic new rubber supply is limited in the short term. Demand from tire enterprises is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran conflict [3]. Crude Oil - The current conflict has lasted for more than four weeks, and the focus is on the control of the Strait of Hormuz and energy supply chain security. Oil prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, with the main factors being geopolitical support and policy suppression. Short - term focus is on the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of negotiations [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Short - term price is supported by plant maintenance, but supply will increase next week, and it is expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the support at around 1150 for SA605, and 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage can be considered [5]. - Glass has weak market trading. Supply is slightly reduced, and demand is weak. Inventory reduction is weakening. Attention should be paid to the support at around 1030 for FG605, and short - selling can be tried lightly if demand or inventory reduction does not improve [5]. Methanol - Methanol futures are rising, and the basis is strengthening. Supply is increasing domestically but imports are expected to decrease. Demand is improving. However, risks of sharp fluctuations and price corrections due to geopolitical easing should be noted [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is expected to decline, but downstream polyester has cost - transmission problems, and short - term PX follows oil price fluctuations. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows cost - end fluctuations [10]. - Ethylene glycol has strong cost support, and supply is decreasing. Port inventory is expected to decline, and the price may continue to rise, but there is a risk of a pull - back [10]. - Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows raw material fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and downstream cost transmission [10]. Polyolefins - The polyolefin market is trading based on the logic of "strong cost, reduced supply". The 05 - contract inventory is expected to be low, driving up prices. However, demand is limited, and long positions can be reduced on rallies [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures fluctuate greatly, and the spot price is stable. Supply is increasing slightly, and inventory is accumulating. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation [8]. - PVC futures are weakly volatile, and the spot price is falling. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, but it may be pushed up passively by the overall environment, and attention should be paid to the impact of regional trends [8]. Urea - Urea futures open low and close high, and the spot market is weak. Supply is slightly reduced, and inventory is relatively low, providing some support. However, the supply is still abundant, and demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 1830 - 1900 range [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased on March 26 compared to March 25, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spreads between pure benzene and naphtha, and toluene and naphtha decreased [1]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and the EB - BZ spread decreased [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of some downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam improved, while those of aniline decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while styrene inventory increased [1]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene - related industries changed slightly, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. The spreads between different contracts decreased. Spot prices and basis also changed [2]. - **外盘Prices**: FEI and CP contracts' prices increased [2]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage ratio, port inventory, and port storage ratio all increased [2]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of upstream refineries decreased, while the开工 rate of downstream PDH increased [2]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Some spot prices such as Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber changed slightly, and the basis also changed [3]. - **月间Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 1 - 5 spread increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries and regions changed, and the开工 rate of tire enterprises was stable. Import and export volumes of rubber and related products changed [3]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and different types of crude oil also changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of various refined oils such as US gasoline, European gasoline, and Singapore gasoline changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices decreased. The basis increased [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices decreased. The basis increased [5]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production capacity utilization and weekly output decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory decreased slightly, and soda ash factory inventory decreased slightly [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area decreased, construction area increased, completion area increased, and sales area increased [5]. Methanol - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [7][9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Some upstream raw material prices such as anthracite and动力煤changed slightly [7]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Methanol spot prices in different regions changed slightly [7]. - **跨区Spreads and Basis**:跨区spreads and basis changed [7]. - **下游Products**: Prices of some downstream products such as melamine increased [7]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea daily production decreased, and the开工率 of urea production enterprises decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, and CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China MX prices increased [10]. - **下游Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and cash flows also changed [10]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads changed [10]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the开工 rate decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the开工 rate decreased [10]. - **开工率**:开工 rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain such as polyester comprehensive开工率and straight - spun filament开工率changed [10]. Polyolefins - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: L and PP futures prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts changed [11]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased slightly, and the basis changed [11]. - **Non - Standard Prices**: Non - standard prices of PE and PP changed slightly [11]. - **开工率**: PE and PP装置开工 rates decreased, and downstream加权开工 rates increased [11]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories changed [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda increased [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC increased [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali开工率& Industry Profits**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda industry and PVC decreased, and profits changed [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda下游开工率**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda such as alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased slightly [8]. - **Demand: PVC下游制品开工率**: The开工 rate of some downstream products of PVC such as pipes and profiles increased [8]. - **Chlor - Alkali Inventory:社库&厂库**: Caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased slightly [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is complex and volatile, with the Iran - related conflict having a continuous impact on the energy market, and the short - term cease - fire is difficult. Oil prices fluctuate significantly, and investors need to pay attention to position risk management [1][3] - Various energy and chemical products show an overall "oscillating" trend, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the decline of oil prices narrowed. WTI April contract closed down $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, a 2.2% decline; Brent May contract closed down $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, a 2.17% decline; SC2605 closed at 730.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.5% increase. US crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456.185 million barrels last week, the highest since June 2024. Russia's oil export capacity has been reduced by 40%. The short - term cease - fire is difficult, and the impact on the energy market continues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 6.45% at 4348 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 3.89% at 5159 yuan per ton. From January to February 2026, China's fuel oil production was 6.247 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.89%, and the import volume of bonded marine fuel oil was 1.2124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.44%. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 4410 yuan per ton. This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 20.45%, a 1.03% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory rate was 36.59%, a 0.81% month - on - month increase; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 25.93%, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease. Due to high raw material prices and unstable supply, and the expected increase in downstream demand, the short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [4] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6592 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; EG2605 closed at 5036 yuan per ton, down 1.62%. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased the production cut from 15% to 20%, and the production cut cycle has been extended to the end of April. The polyester price fluctuates widely with the cost in the short term [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 205 yuan per ton to 16430 yuan per ton, NR rose 255 yuan per ton to 13565 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 920 yuan per ton to 17720 yuan per ton. In February 2026, the global light - vehicle sales increased slightly, but were affected by the decline in the Chinese passenger - car market, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The price of butadiene rubber increased, and the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline, but the possible resumption of Iranian plants may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [6] - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and load - reduction devices are numerous, and the output will remain low. The downstream factory operating rate has increased, but short - term geopolitical risks have compressed downstream profit margins, and future demand growth may be hindered [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China, North China, and South China markets has decreased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium - carbide method has increased rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The US has proposed a plan to end the conflict to Iran through several friendly countries, and Iran is studying it. The US EIA report shows that last week, the increase in US crude oil inventory far exceeded expectations, and distillate inventory increased unexpectedly while gasoline inventory decreased [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It displays the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [70][72] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and achievements [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]