| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、PX 海内外开工高位，检修季即将来临 | 3 | | | 二、TA 产能周期拐点，格局预期改善 | 5 | | | 三、乙二醇连续累库，3 月负荷预计下调 | 7 | | | 四、聚酯需求温和恢复，金三银四预期仍在 | 9 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 12 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯产业链 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 聚酯研发报告 成本支撑增强，格局预期改善 【行情回顾】 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：温健翔 电 话：17660221204 邮 箱： wenjianxiang_qh@chinastock.com .cn 期货从业资格证号：F03118724 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022792 作者承诺 PX 行业利润带来了海内外的高开工，近两个月PX-MX 价差维持在 160-190 美元/吨，同比去年表现较好，PXN 目前较 1 月高点有所回落，但依然维持在300 美元/吨上方，亚洲 PX 负荷接连升高，2 月截至 26 日，国内 PX 装置负荷在 92.4 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 本周原油整体呈现震荡上行的走势，均价环比上涨。地缘局势方上，目前美伊双方已经进行两轮间接谈判，但仍未取得实质进展，市场对美 伊冲突的担忧仍存，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军在霍尔木兹海峡附近举行演习。供应方面，委内瑞拉石油供应预计增加，OPEC+一季度仍维持原 油产量稳定，但市场对于该联盟自4月份起开始增产的预期有所升温。市场等待美伊第三轮核谈，美国态度上更倾向于与伊朗继续核谈，这将引 导油价降温下行，短期国际原油价格或保持震荡格局。 PX&PTA 国内PX负荷无变化，估值跟随原油冲高回落，PX加工费维持在305美元/吨左右，PX二季度供应收紧远月预期依然较好，且地缘不确定性仍 存，下方支撑较强。周内有PTA装置 ...

期 货 研 究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格上涨，3 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 620 美元/吨 CFR。2 月 26 日 PX 价格小幅反弹，两 单 4 月亚洲现货均在 929 成交。尾盘实货 4 月在 929/931 商谈，5 月在 928/937 商谈。2 月 26 日 PX 估价在 931 美元/吨，较 2 月 25 日上涨 2 美金。 2026 年 02 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7382 | 5260 | 3700 | 6658 | 483.6 | | 涨跌 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -64 | -4.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.98% | -1.25% | -0.95% | -0.96% | | ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-26 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN320美元/吨(环比变动+8.75美元/吨）。近期PX的浮动价变动不大。在前期PX效益持续 较好的支撑下，亚洲PX开工率持续提升，亚洲综合负荷升至2019年2月末以来的新高，另外内外盘套利会带来更多 进口，同时春节期间下游聚酯减产运行，基本面现实偏弱。但中期预期仍较好，关注3月PX检修兑现情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -63元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-1元/吨），PTA现货加工费457元/吨（环比变动+38元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费437元/吨（环比变动-10元/吨），春节期间基本面变化不大，下游聚酯减产运行，供需格局环 比转弱，PTA供需累库，后续3月随着PTA检修兑现和需求恢复预计将重新去库。中长期随着产能集中投放周期结 束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善，远期预期仍偏好。 需求方面，聚酯开工率77.6%（环比-0.6%），春节期间下游全面放假，织造负荷下滑至0；聚酯负荷也下降至低位， 库存开始累库，节后大部分工厂计划在2月23-24日（初七、初八）左右恢复销售和发货，少部分在2月21日（初五）， 关注节后需求恢复情况。 PF方面，现 ...

PTA&MEG 聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 聚聚聚聚 2026/2/24 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | PTA | 聚聚聚聚聚 | 聚聚 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 假期原油反弹偏多,PX/PTA高开上涨。假期PTA供应变化不大，需求聚酯负荷不高，假期累库偏多，节后 关注地缘和油价影响。3月PTA计划检修量不低，供需预期向好，整体低买思路。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 月差企稳，现实端累库中，3月后预期尚可。 | | 现货 | 中性 | PTA现货市场商谈一般，基差偏弱，2月货在05-70附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5250~5300附近。 | | 成本 | 中性 | 假期PX装置负荷高位，近端浮动价一般，PXN320美元附近，成本PX现实一般，预期尚可。 | | 装置变动 | 谨慎偏多 | 假期新材料重启，英力士125万吨按计划检修中，另一条110万吨短停5天。独山2月10日检修中，YS3套装 置检修中。3月PTA计划检修不低，预期供应有改善。 | | 下游需求 | 中性 | 聚酯2月检修高位，负荷不高，2-3月负荷评估79%、90%。织造复工预计初八至正月十 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 PX 期价有望震荡企稳 宝城期货 陈栋 在春节假期效应、下游聚酯需求淡季、装置检修节奏与新增产能空窗多重因素交织下，节前国内 PX 期货 2605 合约呈现震荡偏弱的走势，期价跌落至 7200-7250 元/吨区间内运行。虽然短期内 PX 下游需求尚 难快速恢复，不过在上游原油价格大幅上涨的成本驱动下，叠加二季度 PX 装置集中检修以及下游聚酯消 费好转，预计节后国内 PX 期货有望维持震荡企稳的走势。 存量高负荷运行，上半年无新增产能 国内 PX 供应端已进入存量产能满产，新增产能真空，供应弹性显著收窄的现象。据了解，产能层面， 2024-2025 年国内 PX 行业连续两年无大型新装置投产，当前总产能稳定在 4400 万吨左右，有效运行产能 约 4250 万吨，行业满产上限约 97%。2026 年国内计划新增 PX 产能 410 万吨，包括福佳大化 60 万吨、华 锦阿美 200 万吨、九江石化 150 万吨，但除福佳大化年初小幅扩建外，其余装置均集中于下半年投产。因 此今年上半年完全无新增产能释放，供应端仅依赖存量装置提负维持。开工 ...

黑龙江省人民政府办公厅印发《黑龙江省支持生物制造产业高质量发展若干政策措施》，其中提到，大 力发展生物化工。鼓励开发多元醇、长链二元酸、聚乳酸、聚酯、生物基尼龙等高技术含量、高附加值 的生物基化学品和材料，推动生物基产品在塑料包装、日化消费、交通物流、环保建材等领域应用。对 年度单品销售收入200万元以上的省重点新产品，按年度实际成交额的5%给予开发企业奖励，单品最高 奖励50万元，单户企业每年奖励累计最高300万元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Heilongjiang Provincial Government has issued a set of policy measures to support the high-quality development of the biomanufacturing industry, aiming to enhance technological innovation, promote industrial expansion, and ensure resource allocation to create competitive advantages and seize future development opportunities [2][7]. Group 1: Enhancing Technological Innovation - Support for the construction of innovation platforms in biomanufacturing through collaboration between enterprises and research institutions, with financial rewards for approved national and provincial platforms [3][8]. - Encouragement for tackling core technological challenges in biomanufacturing, with provincial financial support for approved key research projects [3][8]. - Incentives for enterprises to increase R&D investment, with subsidies for qualifying expenditures exceeding 500,000 yuan, matched by provincial and municipal funding [3][8]. - Support for the establishment of pilot testing and verification platforms, with potential subsidies of up to 1 million yuan based on performance evaluations [3][8]. - Promotion of technology transfer activities, providing funding for contracts exceeding 1 million yuan for technology purchases from research institutions [3][8]. Group 2: Promoting Industrial Expansion and Quality Improvement - Financial support for new biomanufacturing projects in key sectors, with subsidies of up to 5 million yuan for fixed asset investments of 20 million yuan or more [4][9]. - Assistance for equipment upgrades in biomanufacturing enterprises to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs [4][9]. - Support for digital transformation using AI, big data, and IoT technologies, with subsidies for recognized digital workshops and smart factories [4][9]. Group 3: Supporting Key Sector Development - Focus on strengthening the biopharmaceutical sector with financial support for clinical trials and production of new drugs and high-end medical devices, with potential rewards of up to 1.5 million yuan [4][9]. - Encouragement for the development of new food products, with one-time rewards for approved new food materials and additives [4][9]. - Promotion of biochemicals with high added value, providing rewards for significant sales achievements in new products [4][9]. Group 4: Resource Allocation and Financial Support - Support for the construction of biomanufacturing parks and infrastructure, with potential bond funding for qualifying projects [5][10]. - Inclusion of biomanufacturing enterprises in key resource allocation for utilities, ensuring priority in energy supply [5][10]. - Financial services support for biomanufacturing enterprises to facilitate listing and access to capital markets, including innovative loan products [5][10]. Group 5: Intellectual Property and Talent Development - Strengthening intellectual property protection for biomanufacturing innovations, with services to expedite patent applications [10][11]. - Encouragement for educational institutions to develop relevant programs and attract high-level talent to the biomanufacturing sector [10][11]. Implementation Timeline - The policy measures are effective from the date of issuance until December 31, 2028, with provisions for adjustments based on national and provincial policy changes [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Future PX and PTA prices may rise moderately, supported by cost and expected demand improvement [61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Daily Market Summary 1. PTA & PX - On February 11, the PX main contract closed at 7,378.0 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -365.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 5,260.0 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, with a basis of -100.0 yuan/ton [2] - On February 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 69.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.2 US dollars/barrel [2] - The PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high, but planned maintenance of some plants may cause short - term supply tightness; the PTA operating rate also remains high, but the risk of unexpected plant shutdowns increases [2] - The polyester operating rate is expected to seasonally recover, driven by the restocking demand of the textile industry, and the improving volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA consumption [2] - PTA factory inventory is at a neutral level, with relatively limited inventory pressure, providing a buffer for prices [3] 2. Polyester - On February 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,654.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,590.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of -64.0 yuan/ton [4] - The trading volume of the China Light Textile City (MA15) shows a downward trend, reflecting weakening downstream textile demand. However, the inventory days of polyester filament (DTY, POY, FDY) and short - fiber are all lower than the five - year average, providing short - term support [4] II. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 11, the PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 63.43%, all unchanged from the previous day [5] III. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 1. Macroeconomic Dynamics - On February 11, Fed's Harker said the economic outlook is good, inflation is still high, and there is no urgent need to cut interest rates this year; Logan was "cautiously optimistic" about the current interest - rate policy and more worried about inflation [6] - On February 10, Fed's Bostic said he began to see doubts about the confidence in the US dollar [6] 2. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On February 9, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 551.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%, with 460.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric and 89.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric [7] IV. Inference of Future Price Trends - **Supply Side**: PX plant operating rate may remain high, but recent price increases indicate supply may tighten due to planned plant maintenance. PTA operating rate is also high, but unexpected plant shutdowns may affect short - term supply [57] - **Demand Side**: Polyester operating rate is expected to increase, driven by the seasonal recovery of the textile industry, and the increasing trading volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA demand [57] - **Inventory Side**: PTA factory inventory may be at a neutral level, with little inventory pressure, supporting prices [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, the market will be affected by factors such as inventory changes, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical uncertainties. For other products like fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, their prices will be influenced by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and geopolitical situations. Traders are advised to participate with light positions before the Spring Festival to control risks [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices rose. The WTI March contract closed up $0.67 to $64.63 per barrel, a 1.05% increase. The Brent April contract closed up $0.6 to $69.4 per barrel, a 0.87% increase. SC2604 closed at 479.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.9 yuan, a 0.82% increase. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000. EIA data showed that last week, US crude and gasoline inventories increased while distillate inventories decreased. OPEC reported that global demand for OPEC+ oil in Q2 would decrease by 400,000 barrels per day, and there would be a slight surplus. The oil market is expected to be volatile, and traders are advised to use light positions [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the SHFE rose 1.38% to 2,860 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 rose 2.32% to 3,357 yuan per ton. As of February 11, the operating rate of Chinese local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.31%, up 0.26 percentage points from last week. The Singapore low - sulfur market is under pressure, but the high - sulfur fuel oil market fundamentals are strengthening. The market is expected to be volatile, and light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the SHFE rose 0.51% to 3,358 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory of domestic refineries' asphalt was 24.67%, up 0.72% month - on - month; the social inventory rate was 25.87%, up 0.24% month - on - month; the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 29.93%, down 1.76% month - on - month. The asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. Light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3][5]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,260 yuan per ton, up 0.57%; EG2605 closed at 3,764 yuan per ton, up 0.83%. PX, PTA are expected to follow the cost and fluctuate weakly. Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations and potential unplanned shutdowns of polyester raw materials during the Spring Festival [5]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 240 yuan per ton to 16,575 yuan per ton. The cost - end raw material prices are supported by inventory building, but the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and port inventories are slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to risks during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high - level shock, and Iranian supply remains low. The demand has rigid support, but the MTO unit load is still low. Iranian shipments are expected to decline in February, which may support prices. The methanol price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [7][9]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream production is high as there are no large - scale maintenance plans for upstream units, and downstream factories are gradually shutting down. Polyolefins are expected to start accumulating inventory, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The PVC market in different regions shows different trends. The demand is weakening as domestic real - estate construction slows down before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high - level shock, and the price is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and the change in basis rate compared to the previous day, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - On February 11, US President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Trump insisted that negotiations with Iran continue. In January, non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 70,000, and the December data was revised downward to an increase of 48,000. The severe cold and snowstorms in the US did not affect the enterprise survey for calculating employment [15]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The document presents charts of the closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [17][19][21][23] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The document shows charts of the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [34][37][41] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The document provides charts of the spreads between different contracts for various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The document presents charts of the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The document shows charts of production profits and processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - made ethylene glycol [71][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of Everbright Futures Research Institute Zhong Meiyan, the director of energy and chemical research Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their work experience, achievements, and qualification numbers [76][77][78][79] 3.6 Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [81]