双卖波动率策略
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股指期货:市场窄幅震荡,局部交易事件股指期权:延续防御思路
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the bond market curve flattens. For stock index futures, the market is in a narrow - range oscillation with local event - driven trading. For stock index options, a defensive approach should be maintained. For bond futures, the bond market curve flattens, and the overall bond market remains cautious [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a narrow - range oscillation on Thursday, with trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion yuan. Before the holiday, there was no clear market mainline, and funds were trading around local hotspots. After concentrated hedging on Tuesday, funds gradually reduced short positions, and the basis converged to the beginning - of - week level. However, due to the approaching long holiday, the market lacked upward momentum. Industries such as media, communication, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, driven by events like the release of game licenses, Alibaba's AI infrastructure expansion plan, and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. These events are unlikely to form a trading mainline before the holiday. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a growth - style investment, allocate half - position IM long contracts, and wait for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to - late October. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3][7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity market mainly oscillated, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01%. The overall trading volume of the options market decreased slightly, with the single - day trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF options dropping by 28.01%. The trading sentiment that was previously active has slowed down. The PCR of each option variety weakened, and the weighted implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.22%. Considering short - term hedging needs and the entry of double - buying strategies in the week before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended for now. - **Operation Suggestion**: If there are equity holdings, maintain a defensive approach with options before the holiday, such as covered call and protective put strategies. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [3][7]. Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: The bond market curve flattened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan in open - market operations. Although the central bank has increased the MLF roll - over for seven consecutive months, the inter - bank market funds were still tight at the end of the quarter, with the DR001 weighted average interest rate around 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The equity market rose and then fell, which boosted the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural policy tools. Considering the further implementation of other growth - stabilizing policies, the overall bond market remains cautious. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously optimistic about the oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [4][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data from September 22 - 25, 2025, including China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value, the US August new home sales annualized total, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Tariffs**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures restricting Chinese products on September 25, 2025, due to Mexico's plan to raise import tariffs on products from non - free - trade partners such as China. - **US Macroeconomy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since mid - July, with a decrease of 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, far lower than the expected 233,000 [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but no specific data details are provided in the content [14][18][30].