Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the adjustment in the real estate sector, which has significant implications for overall economic performance. Stabilizing the real estate market and activating consumer demand are essential for economic recovery [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Real Estate - Real estate contributes up to 60% of China's GDP, and its decline directly affects overall economic performance [3][8]. - A rough estimate indicates that for every 100 yuan decrease in property value, household consumption decreases by 14 yuan, leading to a significant reduction in GDP [3][4]. - The real estate sector's investment in 2023 has dropped by 10% year-on-year, dragging down GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with related industries contributing to a total impact of 25% on GDP [8]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - A proposed "dual pillar policy" includes issuing 3,000 yuan unconditional consumption vouchers totaling 4 trillion yuan, equivalent to 3% of GDP, to stimulate consumer spending [8]. - Establishing a national real estate restructuring trust company funded by the central government is recommended to manage industry risks and prevent crisis escalation [8]. - Historical evidence from 2020 shows that consumption vouchers effectively revitalized the economy post-lockdown, suggesting a similar approach could yield positive results on a national scale [8]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite current challenges, China's supply side remains robust, with growth in sectors like telecommunications, integrated circuits, and online sales [6]. - The economy's underlying strengths include a large market of 1.4 billion people, a complete industrial system, and ongoing technological investments, providing a solid foundation for recovery [11]. - The economic slowdown is viewed as a temporary issue rather than a chronic problem, with the potential for rapid recovery if key variables are stabilized and demand is activated [11].