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【广发宏观贺骁束】国庆假期国内宏观关注点
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-10-08 07:01
广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一, 国内经济数据边际企稳。9月30日公布的PMI录得49.8,高于8月的49.4。结合前期公布的EPMI、 BCI数据,均指向9月经济呈小幅秋旺的特征,即经济在经历7-8月放缓后再度企稳。 第二, 外汇储备和黄金储备继续上升。国家外汇管理局10月7日公布的数据显示,截止9月末中国外汇储备规 模为33387亿美元,较8月末环比上升165亿美元。这一数据今年7月短暂环比负增长,8月、9月则连续上 升。另据央行统计数据,9月末央行黄金储备达7406万盎司,环比8月增加4万盎司,为连续11个月增持黄 金。 第三, 央行加量续作逆回购维护流动性稳定。央行9月30日公告称,10月9日将以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作。考虑到10月9日将有8000亿到期,央行属加量续作,我 们理解此次操作是旨在维护节后流动性合理充裕,稳定市场预期 。 第四, 假期居民出行需求回暖。交通运输部口径,9月30日-10月6日,全社会跨区域人员流动量(日均)达 2.95亿人,相较去年黄金周同比增长6.1 ...
从亮眼数据透视中国经济韧性与活力 有信心实现全年目标任务
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-30 02:30
央视网消息:国家发展改革委9月29日举行新闻发布会,发布会上相关负责人介绍,8月份,我国经济运行总体平稳,有信心实现全年目标 任务。 商务部欧洲司副司长王宇鹏称:"其中,瑞典、丹麦对华投资额均超过50亿美元,位居欧洲国家的前列。北欧企业普遍看好中国经济发展 的前景,看重中国超大规模市场的潜力。" 商务部:去年中国与北欧贸易额达531.7亿美元 商务部9月29日举行专题新闻发布会,商务部相关负责人介绍,2024年中国与北欧国家的贸易额达到531.7亿美元,增长8.5%。 今年1至8月,中国与北欧5国的贸易额达到379.6亿美元,同比增长7.1%,增速是同期中欧贸易的两倍多。北欧企业持续加码在华投资,截 至目前,北欧5国累计对华直接投资超过了150亿美元。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超介绍,从供给侧看,生产平稳增长,制造业、服务业的重点领域增势良好。从景气程度看,工业企业利润 明显改善。从需求侧看,以旧换新相关商品零售额继续保持较快增长,服务消费潜力不断释放,信息服务业,航空、航天器及设备制造业等投 资较快增长,有力支撑产业升级发展。 国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超称:"下一步,我们将持续加强经济监测预测预警,做好 ...
徐远:中国不会重蹈日本经济的覆辙!| 两说
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-18 07:40
Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers around whether China's economy could follow the path of Japan's economic bubble, with insights from economists on the current state of China's economy and the lessons learned from Japan's past experiences [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Comparison - After the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan experienced a significant appreciation of the yen, leading to a short-term economic boom followed by a severe asset bubble burst, contrasting with China's current economic policies which have effectively avoided such a scenario [3]. - China's real estate prices surged rapidly but began to decline after 2021, indicating a proactive approach to prevent a housing bubble similar to Japan's in the early 1990s [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - China's monetary policy has remained relatively tight compared to Japan's historically loose monetary stance, which has helped prevent asset prices from reaching the levels seen in Japan during its bubble period [3]. - The Chinese government has learned from Japan's experience and has maintained a stable monetary policy to avoid excessive asset inflation [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both economists express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, citing Japan's experience where high government debt (250%-260% of GDP) did not lead to sustainable economic recovery [5]. - The short-term benefits of fiscal stimulus are acknowledged, but the long-term impact on market vitality and innovation remains questionable [5]. Group 4: Shift in Economic Logic - China's economic focus has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, emphasizing the importance of sustainable and quality-driven economic development [7]. - The belief is that China has absorbed lessons from Japan's economic history, suggesting that it is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with optimism for future economic prospects [7].
徐远:中国不会重蹈日本经济的覆辙!| 两说
第一财经· 2025-09-18 07:30
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of the Chinese economy and its divergence from the historical path of Japan's economic bubble, emphasizing that China has learned from Japan's past mistakes in monetary and fiscal policies [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - China has maintained a relatively tight monetary policy, avoiding the excessive easing that characterized Japan's approach in the late 1980s, which led to asset bubbles [3]. - The Chinese yuan has been effectively controlled, preventing a significant appreciation similar to the Japanese yen post-1985 [3]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The rapid increase in real estate prices in China has been followed by a decline since 2021, contrasting with Japan's unchecked real estate bubble in the early 1990s [3]. - Early intervention measures were taken in China to curb rising property prices, demonstrating a proactive approach to prevent a housing market collapse [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy - Both experts express caution regarding the effectiveness of aggressive fiscal policies, noting that Japan's government debt reached 250%-260% of GDP from 1985 to 1995 without reviving the economy [5]. - Fiscal measures can provide short-term boosts to GDP but may lack long-term effectiveness in fostering market vitality and innovation [5]. Group 4: Economic Development Logic - The focus of China's economic strategy has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, aiming to cultivate sustainable market-driven development [7]. - The lessons learned from Japan's economic history suggest that China is unlikely to repeat the same mistakes, with a belief in the potential for future economic improvement [7].
【今晚播出】徐远:中国不会重蹈日本经济的老路!| 两说
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-09-17 06:43
一段时间以来,很多声音都在讨论,中国经济是否有可能重蹈日本经济泡沫的老路。中国经济现状究竟 怎样?货币、财政等政策的施行者,是否吸取了日本经济曾经的教训?在汇率、利率、地产以及财政政 策上,中国都做了哪些努力。近日,知名经济学人唐涯,就以上问题在北京专访了北京大学国家发展研 究院徐远副教授。两位经济学人在《两说》节目中对日本《广场协议》的前车之鉴,以及中国经济的韧 性,做了鞭辟入里的精彩分析,这也是中国经济20讲中的一个重要篇章。 两说 更多精彩内容,敬请关注9月17日周三晚22:30 东方卫视《两说》节目,第一财经 9月20日周六晚22:00 播出。 Business Insights dits 东方卫视首播 09\17 22:30 09\20 22:00 第一财经播出 北京大学国家发展研究院 副教授 |唐 涯 经济学人 ...
【今晚播出】徐远:中国不会重蹈日本经济的老路!| 两说
第一财经· 2025-09-17 06:34
两说 Business Insights 一段时间以来,很多声音都在讨论,中国经济是否有可能重蹈日本经济泡沫的老路。中国经济 现状究竟怎样?货币、财政等政策的施行者,是否吸取了日本经济曾经的教训?在汇率、利率、地 产以及财政政策上,中国都做了哪些努力。近日,知名经济学人唐涯,就以上问题在北京专访了北 京大学国家发展研究院徐远副教授。两位经济学人在《两说》节目中对日本《广场协议》的前车之 鉴,以及中国经济的韧性,做了鞭辟入里的精彩分析,这也是中国经济20讲中的一个重要篇章。 东方卫视首播 第一财经播出 |唐 涯 经济学人 Busin 09\17 22:30 09\20 22:00 更多精彩内容,敬请关注9月17日周三晚22:30 东方卫视 《两说》节目, 第一财经 9月20日周六晚22:00 播 出。 北京大学国家发展研究院 副教授 ...
解读8月经济“成绩单”:韧性十足|全球财经连线
Group 1 - The core theme of the article is the resilience of the Chinese economy, highlighted by steady industrial production and strong growth in new momentum industries [2] - The service sector is experiencing accelerated development, with modern service industries growing at a rate exceeding double digits [2] - Consumption policies are showing gradual effectiveness, contributing to the overall economic performance [2] Group 2 - Investment structure is optimizing, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment upgrades emerging as key highlights [2] - The article raises questions about which new momentum sectors are accelerating and where the focus for future growth will lie [2]
好评中国丨“暑期经济”火热 折射中国经济澎湃活力
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-03 08:28
Group 1 - The summer economy is thriving, showcasing the immense potential of consumer spending in China [1][2] - The cultural and tourism market is vibrant, with popular IPs driving the "park economy" [1] - The total box office for summer films has exceeded 11.6 billion yuan, with over 300 million viewers, surpassing last year's figures [1] Group 2 - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [2] - Investment banks have raised their economic growth forecasts for China this year, reflecting confidence in the economy's resilience [2] - Diverse consumer demands have emerged, from chilled beverages to vacation products, indicating a shift towards improved living standards [2] Group 3 - High-quality development is emphasized as a primary task for building a modern socialist country, with consumption playing a leading role in economic growth [3] - The implementation of supportive policies is strengthening the role of consumption in driving economic resilience [3] - The focus on new technologies and innovative consumption models is expected to enhance consumer willingness and contribute to high-quality economic development [3]
中国经济小结——2025篇
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-02 09:04
中国2025年上半年的GDP增速达到了5.3%,数字非常ok,但大家的体感似乎并不太ok,为什么会有这 样的反差呢? 咱们今天就来梳理一下:今年的中国经济,有什么重点方向、有什么问题、又准备怎么 应对? ...
中国经济、资本市场的下一阶段:走出通缩
Hu Xiu· 2025-09-02 03:02
Group 1 - The previous phase of the Chinese economy has stabilized by breaking deflation expectations, leading to stabilized commodity prices, a recovering stock market, and an increase in retail sales of consumer goods [1] - The next phase of the Chinese economy and capital markets is under discussion, focusing on what to expect in the future [1]