编者按 笔尖绘初心，墨香润使命。在全过程人民民主的生动实践中，当"人民至上"的理念化作笔尖的温度，当"四个机关"的定位融入青春 的奋斗，每一个岗位都是彰显制度优势的窗口，每一次感悟都是推动实践创新的星火。为宣传好习近平总书记关于坚持和完善人民 代表大会制度的重要思想，提高人大工作的社会影响力和群众可感度，安康人大微信公众号特开设"安人漫谈"专栏，陆续刊发全市 人大干部围绕宣传人民代表大会制度、服务高质量发展大局等内容，以随笔、评论、诗歌、散文等"微调研""轻思考""浅分析"式"小 作文"，讲述岗位感悟、分享学习心得、交流经验做法、展示调研成果，供读者参阅。 过去，预算审查监督工作容易局限于报表数字、收支科目与执行进度，某种程度上扮演着"账房先生"的角色。《置身事内》一书深 刻揭示，财政绝非简单的收钱支钱，而是理解政府行为模式、发展战略意图与资源调配逻辑的核心钥匙。中国的"分税制"改革、土 地财政、转移支付体系等，不仅是经济现象，更是塑造中央与地方关系、驱动工业化与城市化进程、影响社会结构变迁的根本性制 度安排。这让我意识到，人大预算审查监督工作，必须超越技术层面，深入到国家治理的肌理之中。当我们审议一份预算报 ...

央视网消息：在2025年年初的时候，记者分别采访了国内外的各金融机构，当问到他们如果用一个 关键词形容中国经济时，他们都选择了"韧性"这个词。而展望2026年，当记者再次问到这个问题时，他 们会给出怎样的答案呢？ ...

光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策 工具箱储备充足。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内 卷"措施下，2026年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 央视网消息：近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房 者的支持等，这些都属于"定向支持"。 与此同时，内需市场的潜力正加速释放。随着一系列促消费、惠民生政策落地见效，将成为明年扩大内需的关键力量。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华代表处原首席代表 史蒂文·巴奈特：中国政府已将扩大消费列为重点，这不仅是明年的目标，更是未来十年的 方 ...

央视网消息：最新出炉的经济数据显示，今年前十月，外商投资和铁路货运等领域成绩喜人，中国 经济韧性十足。 ...

央视网消息：11月17日，多部门公布1至10月经济数据，显示中国经济持续呈现稳中向好的态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic downturn in China is primarily driven by the adjustment in the real estate sector, which has significant implications for overall economic performance. Stabilizing the real estate market and activating consumer demand are essential for economic recovery [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Impact of Real Estate - Real estate contributes up to 60% of China's GDP, and its decline directly affects overall economic performance [3][8]. - A rough estimate indicates that for every 100 yuan decrease in property value, household consumption decreases by 14 yuan, leading to a significant reduction in GDP [3][4]. - The real estate sector's investment in 2023 has dropped by 10% year-on-year, dragging down GDP by 1.5 percentage points, with related industries contributing to a total impact of 25% on GDP [8]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - A proposed "dual pillar policy" includes issuing 3,000 yuan unconditional consumption vouchers totaling 4 trillion yuan, equivalent to 3% of GDP, to stimulate consumer spending [8]. - Establishing a national real estate restructuring trust company funded by the central government is recommended to manage industry risks and prevent crisis escalation [8]. - Historical evidence from 2020 shows that consumption vouchers effectively revitalized the economy post-lockdown, suggesting a similar approach could yield positive results on a national scale [8]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Despite current challenges, China's supply side remains robust, with growth in sectors like telecommunications, integrated circuits, and online sales [6]. - The economy's underlying strengths include a large market of 1.4 billion people, a complete industrial system, and ongoing technological investments, providing a solid foundation for recovery [11]. - The economic slowdown is viewed as a temporary issue rather than a chronic problem, with the potential for rapid recovery if key variables are stabilized and demand is activated [11].

本报讯 （记者毛艺融）11月14日，毕马威发布2025年四季度《中国经济观察》报告（以下简称"报告"）。报告指出，2025 年前三季度，中国经济实际GDP同比增长5.2%，高于去年同期0.4个百分点，完成全年5%左右增长目标的进度良好。 产出方面，报告提到，展望下一阶段，内需回升将带动生产修复。伴随政策性金融工具的投放与使用，制造业投资、基建 投资需求回升，相关投资所需设备器具、上游建材等产品有望迎来新一轮生产扩张。 （编辑 郭之宸） 消费方面，报告提到，前三季度服务消费表现维持较强韧性。此外，新型消费业态蓬勃发展，数字消费增长强劲。展望四 季度，在线上"双十一""双十二"等促销活动与线下中秋国庆等假期消费的共同提振下，消费市场仍有一定支撑。预计服务消费 仍是四季度消费增长的重要拉动力。 投资方面，报告提到，展望下一阶段，制造业投资表现有望在四季度迎来修复。在政策支持引导下，基建投资与房地产投 资也将逐步回升，步入新稳态。 ...

Core Points - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) emphasizes the theme "New Era, Shared Future," showcasing China's commitment to open cooperation and its vibrant market potential [1] - The expo, initiated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, represents a significant decision for promoting a new round of high-level opening-up and is a major initiative for China to actively open its market to the world [1] Group 1 - The number of participating enterprises at the expo has reached a historical high, reflecting the robust vitality of China's large-scale market [1] - The CIIE is the world's first national-level exhibition focused on imports, highlighting China's unique position in global trade [1] - The event serves as a platform for economic integration between China and the global economy, facilitating dialogue and collaboration [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's economy demonstrated resilience and progress in the first three quarters of 2025, with a GDP growth of 5.2%, reflecting strong internal dynamics and effective policy responses to external challenges [1][2][18]. Economic Performance - GDP exceeded 100 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, which is an acceleration compared to previous periods [2]. - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2%, remaining stable throughout the year [2][14]. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable, with core CPI rising by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in demand [2][17]. Structural Quality - The proportion of high-tech manufacturing value added reached 16.7%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous year, showcasing a shift towards higher quality growth [3]. - Green energy production and consumption are increasing, with significant growth in new energy vehicles and other green sectors [4][9]. Innovation and Development - Major technological advancements were noted, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 9.6% and 9.7% respectively [7]. - The innovation index of China entered the global top 10 for the first time, highlighting rapid improvements in innovation capabilities [7]. Employment and Income - The per capita disposable income of residents grew by 5.2%, aligning with economic growth, indicating effective measures in safeguarding livelihoods [4][11]. - Employment stability was supported by economic growth and the expansion of the service sector, which accounted for 58.4% of GDP [14]. Price Trends - CPI showed a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, primarily influenced by food and energy prices, while core CPI indicated a recovery trend [16][17]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stabilize prices and enhance consumer demand [17][20]. Future Economic Outlook - The economy is expected to maintain stability and progress, supported by strong internal dynamics and proactive macroeconomic policies [18][20]. - Continued emphasis on high-quality development and structural reforms will be crucial for addressing challenges and sustaining growth [20].

Core Insights - China's economy has shown resilience and progress in the first three quarters, with effective investment and strong social welfare measures laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [1][6]. Economic Performance - The GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, maintaining a leading position among major global economies [2] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] - Industrial output rose by 6.2%, marking the highest growth for the same period since 2022 [2] Sectoral Growth - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw value-added growth of 9.7% and 9.6%, respectively, with their shares in industrial output increasing by 2.1 and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The integrated circuit and smart device manufacturing sectors experienced significant growth, with increases of 22.4% and 12.2% in value-added [2] Quality and Efficiency - Improvements in product prices and corporate profits were noted, with industrial enterprise profits rising by 3.2% year-on-year, and a notable 21.6% increase in September alone [3][4] Resilience in Exports - Despite external challenges, exports maintained a growth rate of 7.1%, with high-tech and electromechanical products growing by 11.9% and 9.6%, respectively [2] - Exports to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 12.4% [2] Consumer and Industrial Trends - The service retail sector grew by 5.2%, driven by popular events such as sports and concerts [3] - Production of high-end and green technologies is on the rise, with civilian drones and industrial robots increasing by 43.2% and 29.8%, respectively [3] Social Welfare and Food Security - The government has effectively ensured food security and energy supply, with measures in place to stabilize grain markets and enhance agricultural production conditions [4][5] - The national coal stockpile reached 220 million tons, sufficient for over 35 days, ensuring energy supply during the winter [4][5] Investment Expansion - The government is actively promoting effective investment, with 500 billion yuan allocated to support local government financial capacity and investment projects [6] - Over 2,300 projects have been supported, with total investments around 7 trillion yuan, focusing on digital economy, AI, and infrastructure [6] Future Outlook - International economic organizations have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, indicating confidence in achieving annual development goals [6][7]