相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 58 ——哪些央企重资产、低淘汰 率（HALO）特征较为明显》 2026-03-02 2、《伊朗局势与特朗普的政治 押注———国际时政周评》 2026-03-01 3、《假期海外时政：特朗普大 规模关税违法、伊朗局势—— —国际时政周评》2026-02-22 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 6 期） 频率：每周 节后第一周，投资相关高频数据整体表现不及去年同期水平，但过年期间居民 消费数据好于去年同期。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 节后第一周高频数据表现如何？ 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 开工率方面，节后开工率呈现环比改善局面，除了电炉开工率、螺纹钢、热 卷和浮法玻璃开工率环比下降，其余 7 个产品的开工率环比回升。但与去年 节后相比，只有全钢胎和半钢胎开工率好于去年同期相比，其余产品均弱于 去年同期。 产能利用率表现与节前一致，仍处于 ...

预计超26亿人次跨区域流动、外国友人积极来华体验中国年、春节档电影总票房突破55亿元……刚刚过 去的春节假期，不仅是万家团圆、辞旧迎新的传统佳节，更成为外界观察中国经济韧性、创新生机与文 化魅力的重要窗口。热气腾腾的中国年，连接过去与未来，联通中国与世界，在共庆共享中描绘出四海 同春的和谐图景。 春回大地，万象更新。春节假期映照出一个活力满满、自信向前的中国。超大规模市场释放的消费潜 力，持续扩大开放带来的发展机遇，科技创新催生的澎湃动能，共同构成中国经济行稳致远的底气。一 个自信向未来的中国，将继续与世界携手前行，共同迈向更加美好的明天。 《人民日报》（2026年02月24日 第 03 版） 责编：张靖雯、张霓 "最长春节假期"见证消费市场持续火热。从年货采买到家宴团圆，从文旅出行到智能焕新，从城市商圈 到乡村市集，一幕幕火热的消费场景，勾勒出中国消费市场提质升级的新气象。微信团队23日发布2026 春节数据报告显示，春节期间旅行、生活娱乐线下交易笔数同比涨幅均超20%。各地商圈焕新升级，南 京"金陵长乐坊"让消费者成为"剧中人"，北京厂甸庙会等30余个庙会灯会覆盖各大商圈。长线游、深度 游、定制游等品质消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience amidst a complex international environment, achieving high-quality development with GDP surpassing 140 trillion yuan for the first time [4][5]. Economic Outlook - The outlook for the new year is optimistic, with China's economy characterized by strong resilience, a complete industrial system, a vast market, and continuously improving technological innovation capabilities [5][14]. - The capital market is expected to play a more significant role in supporting technological innovation, promoting industrial upgrades, and enhancing consumption upgrades [5][14]. Market Trends - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets will focus on the "New Four Bulls" logic, advancing along three main lines: technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and strategic resource security [6][15]. - The stock market is anticipated to continue a slow upward trend, with capital and liquidity concentrating on endogenous economic growth [6][15]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to shine in the new year include AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, minor metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, low-altitude economy, military industry, and pharmaceuticals [6][15]. - The bond market is entering a low-interest-rate era, with a long-term downward trend in yields expected, particularly in the short to medium term [6][15]. Commodity Insights - Gold and silver are viewed as long-term investment opportunities, with recent price fluctuations driven by geopolitical factors rather than traditional economic indicators [7][16]. - Central banks and investors are increasing their holdings of gold and silver due to concerns over geopolitical tensions, rising debt levels, and the weaponization of the dollar [7][16].

2026年2月，《人民日报》连续刊发署名"金轩"的重磅系列文章，共计十篇，构成了一幅理解中国经济 的"全景图"。 "金轩"十篇系列文章，是在"十五五"开局之年的重要时间节点，代表国家发展改革委发出的一次系统、 权威、坚定的经济分析与信心传递。 "金轩"是谁？"金轩"取自"经济宣传"之意，是国家发展改革委宣传部门宣传贯彻党中央精神，为做好经 济宣传、提升新闻舆论传播力引导力而使用的笔名。早在2024年4月30日，国家发展改革委官网刊发 《从全球视野和市场规律出发客观辩证看待产能问题》，署名为"国家发展改革委 金轩"。此后，"金 轩"署名文章在《人民日报》《经济日报》等主流媒体、国家发展改革委官网和微信公众号上高频出 现，发表了多篇深学笃行阐释习近平经济思想系列文章。据不完全统计，截至目前，"金轩"已发表70余 篇重要文章。 "金轩"十篇系列文章连续刊发在《人民日报》重要版面上。这种节奏本身就是一个信号：议题非常重 要，需要连贯和完整的论述分析。 从内容看，十篇系列文章可分为三组，共同阐释中国经济，回应国内外关切。 第一篇和第二篇文章锚定高质量发展的"价值坐标"，回答"如何看中国经济"的问题。 《如何看待中国经济 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that China's economy, despite facing multiple challenges, has shown resilience and is expected to maintain a stable and positive growth trajectory in 2026, marking the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][6]. - In 2025, China's GDP surpassed 140 trillion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, positioning it among the leading global economies [4][5]. - The article highlights the importance of expanding domestic demand, strengthening innovation, deepening reforms, and improving people's livelihoods as key strategies for sustainable economic growth [6][7]. Group 2 - The analysis of consumption trends predicts that the retail sales of consumer goods will grow at approximately 3.5% in 2026, while total consumption, including services, is expected to exceed 5% [7]. - The macroeconomic situation review indicates that in 2025, China's economy demonstrated a "high at the beginning and stable later" trend, with enhanced consumer spending and resilient foreign trade, successfully meeting the main goals of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing expectations, and fostering new growth drivers to enhance quality and efficiency in the economy during the initial year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6].

Core Viewpoint - The IMF has adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous prediction, with China remaining a key driver of global economic growth [2][10]. Economic Outlook - KPMG's report anticipates that under current policy support, China's domestic economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with an expected recovery in demand as macro policies are effectively implemented [2][10]. - The report indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, achieving the target growth rate set at the beginning of the year [3][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The economy is experiencing structural disparities in supply and demand, with traditional industries facing challenges due to intense competition and slow capacity clearance, leading to weak demand and supply expansion [3][11]. - The report highlights the need for coordinated efforts from both demand and supply sides, as well as improvements in institutional mechanisms and external environments to promote sustained recovery in domestic demand [4][12]. Investment and Consumption - Investment in key areas and major projects needs to be supported to stabilize effective investment, while enhancing social welfare investments to stimulate consumer potential [4][12]. - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards quality and experiential consumption [4][13]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - Continuous policy support is essential to consolidate the recovery foundation and stimulate growth, including innovative use of financial tools such as special government bonds and policy financing [5][15]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract diverse capital to support the development of strategic emerging industries [6][15]. Macroeconomic Management - Fiscal policy should play a more prominent role in counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on effectively expanding domestic demand and improving policy implementation effectiveness [7][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the business environment and supporting enterprises in expanding international markets to create a virtuous cycle of income growth and domestic demand expansion [7][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, meeting the initial target growth rate [2] - In 2025, the industrial production showed steady improvement, with the manufacturing value-added growing by 6.1% year-on-year, supported by strong export demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [5] - The retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, although the fourth quarter saw a decline of 1.8%, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2023 [9] - Fixed asset investment in 2025 experienced a decline of 3.8%, marking the first annual negative growth since records began, with significant contractions in real estate and infrastructure investments [12] - Exports in 2025 grew by 5.5%, with a trade surplus reaching nearly 1.2 trillion USD, the highest on record, driven by high-end manufacturing categories like integrated circuits and new energy products [15] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the central economic work conference emphasizes higher quality requirements for economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain a steady expansion [3] - The government plans to support domestic demand and optimize supply, with a focus on increasing investment in human capital and lowering financing barriers for private enterprises [3] - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.8%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand recovery [18] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January 2026 was at 49.4%, with the construction sector returning to contraction territory, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday [19] - Public fiscal revenue in 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with expenditures also falling short of budgeted growth, reflecting a cautious fiscal environment [22]

中新网北京2月12日电毕马威近日发布2026年第一季度《中国经济观察》报告(下称"报告")。报告指 出，2025年中国经济实现顺利收官，但结构上呈现供需分化、内外需分化、新旧动能表现分化以及宏观 数据与微观体感之间的分化。2026年国内经济增速将维持稳健，供需分化格局有望加速弥合。报告从产 出、消费、出口等方面展开分析。 在产出方面，在工业企业出口需求旺盛、国内设备更新政策推进背景下，2025年制造业增加值总体同比 增长6.1%。与此同时，人工智能技术快速发展及资本市场表现回暖，带动信息技术、金融等服务业保 持较快增长，使得第三产业增速再度超过第二产业。展望2026年，"两重"项目在年初集中开工、"两 新"补贴在年初迎来首轮发放，有望带动上游原材料、下游消费品生产回升。 在消费方面，伴随悦己消费趋势的持续升温，居民消费结构加速向品质化、体验化转型，金银珠宝、化 妆品、服装鞋帽等消费增速温和回升，同时服务消费保持较强韧性。展望2026年，以旧换新政策将延续 实施并更加注重精准施策，重点向绿色消费、智能消费、银发消费等消费升级方向倾斜。 在出口方面，2025年中国外贸在复杂外部环境下实现稳量提质，贸易顺差创下历史 ...

Core Concept - The development of the "Chinese Economy" is a key strategy for China to overcome growth bottlenecks, facilitating bypassing trade barriers and addressing rising domestic factor costs through global resource allocation [1][4]. Group 1: Understanding "Chinese Economy" - The term "Chinese Economy" (GNI) emphasizes wealth and value creation by Chinese nationals and enterprises globally, shifting focus from domestic production (GDP) to global operations [2]. - This transition signifies a strategic elevation from "producing in China" to "operating globally," allowing Chinese enterprises to allocate resources and create value worldwide while benefiting domestic growth [2]. Group 2: Implications for the 14th Five-Year Plan - The 14th Five-Year Plan indicates a shift towards a dual circulation model of "capital going abroad + global creation + value return," emphasizing the importance of global supply chain control and cross-border governance [3]. Group 3: Strategic Value in Global Economic Restructuring - Developing the "Chinese Economy" is crucial for navigating the current global economic landscape characterized by regionalization and diversification, helping to stabilize external demand and mitigate domestic cost pressures [4]. - This model transforms Chinese enterprises from passive rule-takers to active chain leaders, enhancing their bargaining power in international supply chains and fostering innovation and new industries [4]. Group 4: Global Operations Rooted in China - The operational model of "revenue overseas, roots in China" leverages China's robust supply chain and manufacturing capabilities while mitigating market risks through diversified global revenue streams [6]. - This approach demonstrates that globalization can strengthen domestic manufacturing and R&D, serving as a best practice for upgrading domestic industries [6]. Group 5: Key Capabilities for Sustainable Globalization - Globalized enterprises must develop systematic capabilities in modern governance, cultural integration, ecosystem empowerment, and innovation compliance to effectively embody the "Chinese Economy" [7]. Group 6: "China + N" Resource Configuration - The "China + N" resource configuration model exemplifies successful practices of the "Chinese Economy," emphasizing the importance of maintaining core manufacturing and R&D in China while expanding global market reach [8][9]. - This model promotes a dual empowerment mechanism, linking domestic advantages with global resources to enhance competitiveness and operational efficiency [8]. Group 7: Ecological Expansion through Leading Enterprises - The "ecological expansion" led by chain enterprises is vital for enhancing the overall network of the "Chinese Economy," fostering collaboration among domestic suppliers and reducing barriers for smaller enterprises [10]. - This approach encourages the optimization of products and services across the supply chain, driving high-end upgrades and reinforcing the industrial foundation of the "Chinese Economy" [10].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, showcasing the resilience and strength of the Chinese economy amidst global challenges [1][2] Economic Performance - China's GDP crossed the 140 trillion yuan mark, achieving a four-step increase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - The economy demonstrated stability and progress, with a focus on high-quality development and effective macroeconomic policies [2][8] Policy Measures - A comprehensive set of macroeconomic policies was implemented, including over 2.8 trillion yuan in tax reductions and targeted support for key sectors [2][3] - The reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates released over 2 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, aiding businesses in securing loans [2] Consumer Demand and Innovation - The issuance of long-term special government bonds amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan supported consumer spending, leading to a retail sales growth of 3.7% [3][4] - China's innovation index entered the global top ten, with R&D expenditure intensity reaching 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average [4][6] Industrial Growth - The manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with high-tech manufacturing value added accounting for 17.1% of industrial output [6] - The production of drones and industrial robots increased by 37.3% and 28%, respectively, indicating a strong trend in advanced manufacturing [6][7] Digital Economy - The digital economy expanded, with a 9.3% increase in the value added by digital product manufacturing [7] - New consumption models and online retail grew by 8.6%, reflecting the increasing penetration of digital technologies [7] Future Outlook - The policies implemented in 2026 aim to stimulate economic growth and ensure a strong start for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [10][11] - International financial institutions remain optimistic about China's economic fundamentals and asset performance, indicating a positive long-term outlook [11]