Group 1: Core Insights - The current Chinese economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with "involution" competition being a major obstacle to industrial upgrading and economic transformation [1] - The government has introduced a series of "anti-involution" policies since 2025 to curb vicious price wars, eliminate backward production capacity, and optimize supply structure, which are significantly changing the competitive landscape and profit models across various industries [1][2] - The investment themes for 2024 and 2025 focus on optimizing supply and seeking quality companies, with "anti-involution" expected to be the main line of the new A-share market [1][2] Group 2: Policy Framework - The "anti-involution" policy has evolved from concept to institutional design and implementation, with the first mention in the Central Political Bureau meeting in July 2024, marking its entry into national policy [2] - The policy framework includes legal revisions, such as the amended Anti-Unfair Competition Law, which prohibits disorderly competition behaviors like below-cost pricing [3] - The government encourages industry self-regulation through associations and companies, exemplified by commitments from automotive companies to settle payments within 60 days [4] Group 3: Characteristics of the Current "Anti-Involution" Policies - Compared to the supply-side structural reform of 2016, the current "anti-involution" policies cover a broader range and address more complex issues, tackling both traditional industries' demand shortages and emerging industries' supply expansions [5] - The policies aim to improve profitability across multiple industries by reducing supply through the elimination of backward capacity and promoting demand through domestic consumption [5][9] - The "anti-involution" approach is seen as a long-term factor for improving the supply-demand structure in the A-share market, contributing to a virtuous cycle of innovation, profit, and reinvestment [5][9] Group 4: Impact on A-Share Market - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to enhance the fundamentals of the A-share market by optimizing the supply-demand structure, which can lead to improved profit margins for companies [6][10] - The current low prices in the domestic market are attributed to continuous capacity expansion rather than demand shortages, indicating that supply-side changes are crucial for breaking the deadlock [9] - The policies are likely to benefit sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries, providing sustainable support for the A-share market and long-term investment opportunities [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant narrowing of the trade deficit between China and the U.S. following the Geneva high-level economic talks, with a notable increase in export growth rates and a slight uptick in import growth due to base effects [1][2][3]. Export Analysis - In June 2025, China's total exports reached $325.18 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, which is a 1.0 percentage point rise from the previous month [1][3]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has significantly reduced, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, an improvement of 18.39 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while traditional export categories saw declines, with integrated circuits and automobiles showing strong growth [5][6]. Import Analysis - China's total imports in June 2025 amounted to $210.41 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, reversing from negative growth due to base effects [2][6]. - Imports from the U.S. decreased by 15.5% year-on-year, but this decline was 2.6 percentage points less than the previous month [2][6]. - The import growth rates from Japan and ASEAN were positive, while imports from traditional bulk commodities continued to face challenges [7]. Future Outlook - The external environment for trade is expected to remain complex and volatile, with potential risks and opportunities for export growth in 2025 [8]. - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from the real estate market and global trade barriers may persist [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "oscillation" [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures continued their moderate upward trend, influenced by factors such as expectations of real - estate policy implementation, strengthened anti - involution and supply - side expectations, and the high - dividend characteristics of banks and insurance attracting long - term funds. The short - term upside is related to the sustainability of the large - finance sector [6]. - Stock index options maintained a cautious outlook. Although the underlying assets performed strongly, the market did not see large - scale chasing trades, and investor sentiment became more cautious. The recommended operation is to focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. - Treasury bond futures had weak sentiment. The market was pressured by the strong performance of the equity market and the tightening of the capital market. With potential capital fluctuations in the future, the market should be dealt with from an oscillation perspective [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Performance Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were - 12.82 points, - 11.53 points, - 24.25 points, and - 31.37 points respectively, with month - on - month changes of 1.58 points, - 1.41 points, - 0.76 points, and 0.30 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts were 18.0 points, 3.4 points, 54.4 points, and 71.2 points, with month - on - month changes of 2.8 points, - 2.6 points, 1.0 points, and 1.4 points. The total open interest changes were 11835 lots, 9632 lots, 5291 lots, and 11313 lots [6]. - **Logic**: The market continued its upward trend, with real estate, insurance, coal, and oil and gas leading the gains. The short - term upside depends on the large - finance sector [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6]. Stock Index Options - **Logic**: The underlying assets were strong, but the trading volume changed little, and the volatility increased slightly. Investor sentiment became more cautious. [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on covered strategies and appropriately add buying put options to construct a collar [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Performance Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL current - quarter contracts were 77570 lots, 65698 lots, 42333 lots, and 107326 lots respectively, with daily changes of 18031 lots, 19470 lots, 7862 lots, and 33059 lots. The open interests were 202427 lots, 158575 lots, 115251 lots, and 119369 lots, with daily changes of - 1254 lots, 1095 lots, - 144 lots, and 418 lots. The spreads between current - quarter and next - quarter contracts, cross - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market declined due to the strong equity market and tightened capital. Future capital fluctuations need attention, but there may be value in entering the market after the recent adjustment [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillation view. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium - term has higher odds [7] 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual retail sales growth rate in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast of 1.2% [9]. - On July 9, 2025, China's CPI annual rate in June was 0.1%, with a previous value of - 0.1% and a forecast of 0%; the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%, with a previous value of - 3.3% and a forecast of - 3.2% [9] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The latest Fed meeting minutes showed that some participants were willing to consider lowering the policy interest rate if data met expectations, while others thought the federal funds rate might not be lowered this year [9]. - China has launched a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals such as antimony and gallium, and will also review and approve legal export license applications [10] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [11][15][27]

Group 1 - The market performance yesterday approached 3500 points, with over 4200 companies rising, indicating a broad-based rally across industries, except for banks [1] - The technology sector, particularly AI computing infrastructure and new energy photovoltaics, led the gains, with a notable performance from the combination of optical modules and photovoltaics [1] - The supply side is gaining momentum, with consumer demand and technology showing potential for future growth [1] Group 2 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are perceived to have a pricing advantage globally and have not entered an overvalued zone, indicating potential for high cost-performance opportunities [2] - Recent positive news includes the promotion of RMB stock trading counters in Hong Kong, accelerated development of inclusive childcare services by seven departments, and strong retail data for passenger vehicles in June [1][2] - Several companies have issued pre-profit announcements, reflecting optimism in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, emphasizing the need for a "de-involution" approach, particularly in the A-bond sector, amidst a backdrop of weak stock market performance and a balanced, loose funding environment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 985 billion yuan, with 3,653 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,668 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the price of funds continuing to decline; DR001 is around 1.36% and DR007 is around 1.51% [3]. - The stock market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with further loosening of the funding environment leading to a decline in interest rates; the 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6425% and fell to a low of 1.6345% before slightly rebounding to 1.64% [4]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article highlights the "de-involution" theme, particularly in the supply-side concept, suggesting that the A-bond market needs to focus on longer durations, bypassing the 10-year and 30-year bonds to directly target the 50-year bonds [5]. - The recent decline in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.6% is interpreted as a standard reaction to balance sheet recession, where the primary goal shifts from profit pursuit to survival and debt repayment, leading to a drastic drop in borrowing willingness [5].