Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 10, 2026. Some commodities like silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate rose, while others such as container shipping to Europe and SC crude oil declined. The market was significantly affected by the Middle - East geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - related conflict, which led to large - scale price fluctuations in commodities [4][5]. - Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, copper has a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation; lithium carbonate shows a wide - range oscillation; and crude oil prices are highly volatile due to OPEC+ production adjustments and the Middle - East situation [7][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: It opened and closed higher. March production is expected to increase both month - on - month and year - on - year. The regenerated copper market is tight, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. However, the shortage of copper ore and policy disturbances have not yet affected actual production, and inventory is still accumulating. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened and closed higher, with prices rising. The开工 rate dropped, and production in February decreased. There is a high risk of lithium mine resumption, which is a potential negative factor. Inventory is being depleted, and downstream inventory is accumulating. The price is affected by the Middle - East conflict and shows wide - range oscillation [9]. - **Silver and Gold**: Silver had a significant increase of over 7%, and gold also had capital inflows. The specific reasons were not detailed, but they were likely affected by the overall market and the Middle - East situation [4][5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will increase production in April. The US crude inventory increased more than expected. The Middle - East conflict, especially the situation in Iran, has a huge impact on the oil market. The price has fluctuated greatly, and it is recommended to observe the Middle - East situation [10][11]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side's开工 rate increased slightly, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering, but the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [12][13]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工 rate is recovering, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and crude oil price fluctuations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [14]. - **Plastic**: The开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. New production capacity was put into operation in January. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and crude oil price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [15][16]. - **PVC**: The upstream电石 price increased, the supply side's开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate is recovering. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is affected by the crude oil price and is recommended to be observed [17]. - **Urea**: It opened and closed lower. The market has sufficient supply, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price was affected by the futures market and the Middle - East conflict, and it is expected to continue to adjust [20]. Coking Coal - It opened and closed lower. The domestic mines are resuming production, and the inventory of mines increased while that of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased. The steel mill's demand is low, and the price is affected by the Middle - East situation and is expected to oscillate weakly [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to oscillate. The supply side has a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, and the inventory pressure is still high. The demand side, affected by the real - estate adjustment, has low downstream initiative to stock up. Although there is a phenomenon of rush - export, the upward driving force of PVC itself is temporarily insufficient [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's initiative to stock up is low. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush - export phenomenon, and the PVC export orders have increased significantly. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement still needs time [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,860 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,928 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 4,895 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.37%. The position volume decreased by 23,946 lots to 1,015,893 lots [2] Basis - On January 29th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,685 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,895 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 210 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by companies like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - Demand side: The real - estate is in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The PVC market is oscillating. The supply - side PVC operating rate has slightly decreased, the downstream active stocking willingness is low, the export has increased but with growing transaction resistance, the social inventory is still high, and the real - estate market is in adjustment, so PVC lacks upward driving force for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析** - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low [1]. - Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush to export, and PVC export orders have increased significantly. However, as export prices rise, transaction resistance increases. With the cold wave in the US, domestic export orders continue to increase slightly. The export price of Formosa Plastics' PVC in February has risen by $40/ton [1]. - The social inventory continued to increase last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. The real - estate market is in adjustment, and indicators such as investment, new construction, and completion areas have large year - on - year declines. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded but is still at the lowest level in recent years [1]. - The chemical sector sentiment is boosted, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure. Some production enterprises' operating expectations are decreasing, but the production decline is limited. The operating rate of PVC has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC, and with the Spring Festival approaching, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and PVC lacks upward driving force [1]. **期现行情** - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,882 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,939 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,913 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 20,469 lots to 1,039,839 lots [2]. - On January 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,695 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,913 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 218 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. **基本面跟踪** - On the supply side, affected by enterprises like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) had a trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real - estate market is in adjustment. From January to December 2025, national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. Indicators such as sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - As of the week of January 22, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still high [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with limited upward drivers. The supply side shows a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, while the demand side remains weak due to the ongoing adjustment in the real - estate sector. The inventory is at a high level, and although there is a significant increase in export orders, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, which is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, and the downstream operating rate increased by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. Exports increased significantly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance is increasing. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate sector is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement needs time [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased by 0.55% to close at 4911 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 34793 hands in the position to 1060308 hands. The mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 216 yuan/ton, strengthening by 46 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [2][3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Affected by companies such as Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%. New production capacities of several companies were put into operation in 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: The real - estate sector is in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 25, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% month - on - month and was at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 22, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% to 1177500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.01%, and the inventory is still high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and fluctuating trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points due to winter, with poor downstream product orders and low willingness to stock up actively [1] - Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export in the market last week, with a significant increase in PVC export orders to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1] - The social inventory continued to increase last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage from January to December 2025, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to recover, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, and it will take time for the real estate to improve. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC operating rate has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, with limited demand in India [1] - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, with average purchasing enthusiasm, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,841 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,807 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.25% and an increase in open interest of 22,859 lots to 1,037,034 lots [2] - On January 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,580 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,807 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 227 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with 500,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year, were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons/year started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, it will take time for the real estate to improve [5] - As of the week of January 18, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% on a month - on - month basis, at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% on a month - on - month basis to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Under the stimulation of export tax rebate cancellation, the 03 - 05 contracts of PVC are expected to show a strong and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: The PVC开工率 decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the influence of plants like Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the output decline is currently limited, and the PVC开工率 has not changed much. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand from India is limited [4][18]. - Demand side: In winter, the downstream PVC开工率 decreased 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. The downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers resist high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [4]. - Export: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there has been a rush to export. Last week, PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Attention should be paid to the February quotation from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [25]. - Real estate: In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas was still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [4][24]. - Macro - environment: In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects in 2026. The macro - environment was positive, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [4]. 3.2 PVC Basis - The current basis for the 05 contract is - 253 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [13]. 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC weekly operating rate decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63%, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years [18]. 3.4 Real Estate Data - In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased 13.0%. The new construction area of houses was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential houses was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. - As of the week of January 18th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded 6.20% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [24]. 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to see a volatile downward trend in the short - term, but the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to show a relatively strong volatile trend under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. Downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. Export orders last week were lower than before New Year's Day, at a general level. The Indian market price is low, and the demand from India is limited. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when China cancels the export tax rebate for PVC. Social inventories continued to increase last week and are still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The 30 - city weekly commercial housing transaction area increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which has boosted the sentiment in the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production expectations of some enterprises have decreased, though the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 will change little next week as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan are still under maintenance. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm is average, and social inventories continue to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in an oscillating manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 4,782 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,886 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,803 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.52%. The position volume decreased by 21,502 lots to 1,020,573 lots [2] - Basis: On January 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,558 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,803 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 253 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with the residential sales area decreasing by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, and the new residential construction area decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completed area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, and the completed residential area decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of January 11, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax - rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and weak downstream demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, and downstream product orders are poor. Export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is positive, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,835 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,925 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,868 yuan/ton, down 0.23% with an increase of 13,981 lots in open interest to 1,042,075 lots [2] Basis - On January 15, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton. The basis was - 288 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. New construction area decreased by 20.5%. The area of housing under construction decreased by 9.6%, and the completed area decreased by 18.0%. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite the current high inventory and weak downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, continuing to rise and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has low prices and limited demand. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC will be cancelled. Social inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which boosts the sentiment of the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,854 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,935 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,878 yuan/ton, down 0.25% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 6,529 lots to 1,028,094 lots [2]. Basis - On January 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,878 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 273 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities of several companies have been put into production or are in trial production [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further decreased. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before the New Year's Day holiday, with poor downstream product orders. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and its improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, closing at 4888 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with a decrease of 24,293 lots in open interest to 1,034,623 lots [2] Basis - On January 13, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4888 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 283 yuan/ton, strengthening by 28 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by some plants, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate market is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The new construction area, construction area, and completion area also decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]