Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to oscillate. The supply side has a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, and the inventory pressure is still high. The demand side, affected by the real - estate adjustment, has low downstream initiative to stock up. Although there is a phenomenon of rush - export, the upward driving force of PVC itself is temporarily insufficient [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, with the downstream operating rate increasing by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's initiative to stock up is low. Due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, there is a rush - export phenomenon, and the PVC export orders have increased significantly. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement still needs time [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 4,860 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,928 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 4,895 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.37%. The position volume decreased by 23,946 lots to 1,015,893 lots [2] Basis - On January 29th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,685 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,895 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 210 yuan/ton, strengthening by 8 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by companies like Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, being at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of several companies were put into production or in trial production in 2025 [4] - Demand side: The real - estate is in the adjustment stage. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all had significant year - on - year declines. As of the week of January 25th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% week - on - week, being near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 22nd, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% week - on - week to 1.1775 million tons, 57.01% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.89个百分点至78.74%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平。下游赶在节前促销，PVC下游开工率环比上升0.95个百分点， 但下游主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，PVC出口签单大 幅增加，升至近年来的高位，随着出口价格上涨，成交阻力增大，不过，美国面临寒潮冲击之下， 国内出口签单继续环比小幅走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库 存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新 开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。化工板块情 绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万华、 山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。1月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is experiencing a downward trend with limited upward drivers. The supply side shows a slight decrease in the PVC operating rate, while the demand side remains weak due to the ongoing adjustment in the real - estate sector. The inventory is at a high level, and although there is a significant increase in export orders, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%, which is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream is having pre - holiday promotions, and the downstream operating rate increased by 0.95 percentage points, but the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. Exports increased significantly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, but the transaction resistance is increasing. The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real - estate sector is still in the adjustment phase, and the improvement needs time [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased by 0.55% to close at 4911 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 34793 hands in the position to 1060308 hands. The mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 216 yuan/ton, strengthening by 46 yuan/ton, which is at a low level [2][3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Affected by companies such as Fujian Wanhua and Shaanxi Jintai, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 78.74%. New production capacities of several companies were put into operation in 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: The real - estate sector is in the adjustment phase. In 2025 from January to December, the national real - estate development investment was 8278.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The sales area, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 25, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 7.8% month - on - month and was at a low level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 22, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.92% to 1177500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 57.01%, and the inventory is still high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and fluctuating trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points due to winter, with poor downstream product orders and low willingness to stock up actively [1] - Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export in the market last week, with a significant increase in PVC export orders to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1] - The social inventory continued to increase last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage from January to December 2025, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to recover, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, and it will take time for the real estate to improve. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC operating rate has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, with limited demand in India [1] - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, with average purchasing enthusiasm, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,841 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,807 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.25% and an increase in open interest of 22,859 lots to 1,037,034 lots [2] - On January 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,580 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,807 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 227 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with 500,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year, were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons/year started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, it will take time for the real estate to improve [5] - As of the week of January 18, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% on a month - on - month basis, at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% on a month - on - month basis to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Under the stimulation of export tax rebate cancellation, the 03 - 05 contracts of PVC are expected to show a strong and volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: The PVC开工率 decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. Due to the influence of plants like Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the output decline is currently limited, and the PVC开工率 has not changed much. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the demand from India is limited [4][18]. - Demand side: In winter, the downstream PVC开工率 decreased 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. The downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers resist high prices, and the purchasing enthusiasm is average [4]. - Export: Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there has been a rush to export. Last week, PVC export orders increased significantly to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing. Attention should be paid to the February quotation from Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [25]. - Real estate: In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas was still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but was still at the lowest level in recent years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [4][24]. - Macro - environment: In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects in 2026. The macro - environment was positive, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [4]. 3.2 PVC Basis - The current basis for the 05 contract is - 253 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [13]. 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC weekly operating rate decreased 0.04 percentage points to 79.63%, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years [18]. 3.4 Real Estate Data - In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased 13.0%. The new construction area of houses was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential houses was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. - As of the week of January 18th, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded 6.20% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [24]. 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 15th, PVC social inventory increased 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to see a volatile downward trend in the short - term, but the 03 - 05 contracts are expected to show a relatively strong volatile trend under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream PVC开工率 decreased by 0.11 percentage points week - on - week. Downstream product orders are poor, and the willingness to actively stock up is low. Export orders last week were lower than before New Year's Day, at a general level. The Indian market price is low, and the demand from India is limited. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when China cancels the export tax rebate for PVC. Social inventories continued to increase last week and are still at a high level, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas is still large. The 30 - city weekly commercial housing transaction area increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which has boosted the sentiment in the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production expectations of some enterprises have decreased, though the current production decline is limited. The PVC开工率 will change little next week as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan are still under maintenance. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, and downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, procurement enthusiasm is average, and social inventories continue to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2605 contract decreased in an oscillating manner with a position reduction. The lowest price was 4,782 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,886 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,803 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.52%. The position volume decreased by 21,502 lots to 1,020,573 lots [2] - Basis: On January 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,558 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,803 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 253 yuan/ton, strengthening by 35 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC开工率 decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% week - on - week, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of the year. The 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with the residential sales area decreasing by 8.1%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%. The new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, and the new residential construction area decreased by 19.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completed area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, and the completed residential area decreased by 20.1%. As of the week of January 11, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% week - on - week to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continues to increase and is still at a high level [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a relatively strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax - rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory and weak downstream demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, and downstream product orders are poor. Export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is positive, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,835 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,925 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,868 yuan/ton, down 0.23% with an increase of 13,981 lots in open interest to 1,042,075 lots [2] Basis - On January 15, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,580 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,888 yuan/ton. The basis was - 288 yuan/ton, weakening by 5 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand: The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. New construction area decreased by 20.5%. The area of housing under construction decreased by 9.6%, and the completed area decreased by 18.0%. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and is at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite the current high inventory and weak downstream demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region of the upstream remains stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, continuing to rise and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has increased slightly but is still lower than before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has low prices and limited demand. However, there may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC will be cancelled. Social inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still at the lowest level in recent years. The macro - environment is warm, which boosts the sentiment of the commodity market, but the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,854 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,935 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,878 yuan/ton, down 0.25% and above the 20 - day moving average. The position decreased by 6,529 lots to 1,028,094 lots [2]. Basis - On January 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,878 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 273 yuan/ton, strengthening by 10 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: Affected by plants such as Shaanxi Jintai and Ningbo Hanwha, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities of several companies have been put into production or are in trial production [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, construction, and completion have further decreased. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before the New Year's Day holiday, with poor downstream product orders. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and its improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, closing at 4888 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with a decrease of 24,293 lots in open interest to 1,034,623 lots [2] Basis - On January 13, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4888 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 283 yuan/ton, strengthening by 28 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by some plants, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate market is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The new construction area, construction area, and completion area also decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market shows an upward trend, and the 3 - 5 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates [3] - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and it will take time for improvement [3][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67% week - on - week, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased by 0.08 percentage points week - on - week but decreased by 0.50 percentage points compared to before New Year's Day, with poor orders for downstream products [3] - Last week, export orders decreased compared to before New Year's Day, remaining at an average level. The Indian market price is low with limited demand. There may be a rush to export before April 1, 2026, when the export tax rebate for domestic PVC is cancelled [3] - Social inventory continued to increase last week, remaining at a high level with significant inventory pressure [3] - From January to November 2025, the real - estate market was in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further decreased [3][22] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to rebound week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years. The real - estate market needs time to recover [3][22] - A new 300,000 - ton/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua has started trial production [3] - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all entered the expansion range. The draft of the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi was released, the anti - involution sentiment further intensified, and the Ministry of Finance pre - allocated the 2026 quotas for trade - in and "two - major" projects. The macro environment is favorable, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market [3] - The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current output decline is limited. There are still few maintenance devices this week, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [3] 3.2 PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 247 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [12] 3.3 PVC Operating Rate - Affected by the devices of Shaanxi Jintai, Ningbo Hanhua, etc., the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years [17] 3.4 Real - Estate Data - From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8% (residential sales area decreased by 8.1%). The commercial housing sales volume was 751.30 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1% (residential sales volume decreased by 11.2%) [22] - From January to November 2025, the new construction area of housing was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% (residential new construction area decreased by 19.9%). The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% [22] - From January to November 2025, the completion area of housing was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0% (residential completion area decreased by 20.1%) [22] - As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [22] 3.5 PVC Inventory - As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, a 40.98% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remained at a high level [23]