Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions Review 1.1 Futures Market - On September 3, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures, J2601 and JM2601, weakened after a rebound. Their closing prices reached new lows since July 21 and August 4 respectively. The closing price of J2601 was 1,594 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 18,350 lots and an open interest of 46,404 lots, an increase of 306 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,106 yuan/ton, down 1.25%, with a trading volume of 1,068,419 lots and an open interest of 745,765 lots, an increase of 10,853 lots [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On September 3, the daily KDJ indicators of coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green bars slightly expanded. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The ex - warehouse price index in Tangshan was 1,450 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1,445 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Luliang it was 1,404 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Linfen it was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan it was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze it was 1,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Pingdingshan it was 1,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Future Outlook 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Coke**: Since mid - June, the coke output of independent coking plants has significantly declined from its high, and the coke output of steel mills has dropped to a new low since late January. Port coke inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks from their high since the end of May. Steel mills are still destocking, but last week's inventory slightly rebounded from its low since mid - December last year. Coking plant inventories have slightly increased for two consecutive weeks from their low since late October last year. Tonnage coke profit has been profitable for three consecutive weeks. After the 8th round of spot price increase for coke, it was reported that some northern steel mills plan to conduct the first round of coke price cuts on September 5 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to July, China's imports of coal and lignite decreased by 1.9 percentage points year - on - year to - 13.0%, and imports of coking coal still had a large year - on - year decline of - 8.0%. After a significant decline in the inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines in the past 9 weeks, there has been a rebound. The overall declines reached 43.2% and 32.6% respectively. However, the refined coal inventory in mines has increased for three consecutive weeks, with an increase of 15.5%, while the raw coal inventory in mines has only increased by 0.5% in the past 2 weeks. The inventory of independent coking plants has declined for four consecutive weeks from its high since early February, the steel mill inventory has slightly declined after rising to a new high since early February, and the port inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks from its low since early July last year. With high inventories in steel mills and coking plants, the spot price of coking coal is likely to decline slowly [11]. 2.2 Comprehensive Outlook - The proposed price cut in the coke spot market and the expected increase in Mongolian coal imports are negative for the double - coke industry chain. The decline in steel mills' immediate profits will further suppress the prices of double - coke from the demand side. It is recommended to expect a continued decline or weak performance in the near term. The stabilization and rebound of coal and coke futures, especially after mid - to - late September, depend on the recovery of terminal demand in the steel market [11]. 3. Industry News - On September 3, the Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase III) for the second time. The re - issued bonds are 50 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan [12]. - As of the end of 2024, China's installed capacity of new energy storage reached 73.76 million kilowatts/168 million kilowatt - hours, accounting for more than 40% of the global total, ranking first in the world [12]. - On August 29, the dredging project of the fifth - phase project of Huanghua Port Coal Terminal passed the pre - acceptance. The designed dredging volume was 2.7748 million cubic meters [13]. - On August 31, the 60 - megawatt Chang'an Shimenzi Wind Power Project, the first wind power project of Shaanxi Coal Group in Hunan, was fully connected to the grid [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal responded to the impact of over - production verification, stating that its approved production capacity is 48.9 million tons/year, and it has never reached full - load production, so the over - production verification policy will not affect production and sales [13]. - In the first half of 2025, Inner Mongolia added 11.91 million kilowatts of power generation capacity, with a total installed capacity of 270 million kilowatts, and new energy installed capacity of 145 million kilowatts, an increase of 10.28 million kilowatts. Its power generation reached 416.7 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [13]. - On September 1, the autumn centralized maintenance of the Shitai Railway under the jurisdiction of China Railway Taiyuan Bureau Group Co., Ltd. began, which will last for 15 days [13]. - As of the end of August, the commercial coal output of Wuhai Energy Company reached 9.3175 million tons, a record high for the same period in the past 5 years [13]. - On September 1, the head of the National Energy Administration met with the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan to discuss cooperation in oil and gas, renewable energy, and electricity [13]. - On September 2, the China - Shanghai Cooperation Organization Energy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Beijing [13]. - On September 2, the chairman of PetroChina met with the President of Kazakhstan to discuss cooperation in oil and gas, refining, and new energy [14]. - Since September, the import steam coal market has remained weak. The price advantage of imported coal has continued to narrow, and the bid price of Indonesian 3800 - kcal coal has fallen below 400 yuan/ton [14]. - Elga, a global leading high - quality coking coal producer, expects the situation of Russian coking coal producers to stabilize by the end of this year [14]. - In June 2025, Canada's coal production was 3.444 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% [14]. 4. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregated spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the refined coal and raw coal inventories of sample mines, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal against the January contracts [16][19][22][33][35][36].