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东吴证券晨会纪要-20251112
Soochow Securities· 2025-11-12 01:43
Macro Strategy - The current A-share market resembles the period from August to October 2020, indicating the early stage of a slow bull market driven by strategic funds [1][8] - The market is expected to follow a structural "innovation bull" trend in 2026, similar to the market dynamics observed in early 2021 [1][8] Fixed Income Market - The bond market remains in a box range of fluctuations, with the central bank maintaining liquidity stability through reverse repos and net purchases of government bonds [2][12] - The anticipated new redemption fee regulations may cause volatility in the bond market, but a cautious optimism is advised as the impact will be spread over time [2][12] - The issuance of green bonds has increased significantly, with 17 new issues totaling approximately 41.22 billion yuan, reflecting a growing interest in sustainable finance [3][12] Industry Insights - The rise of "service industry IP" is becoming a major driver of consumption growth, replacing traditional "commodity IP" [9][10] - The transformation in the service industry reflects deep changes in consumer behavior and local competition, with successful cases emerging in various sectors such as food and cultural tourism [10][11] - Government initiatives are supporting the development of service industry IP, enhancing public service accessibility and improving government image [11][12] Company Analysis - For Hengdian East Magnetic (002056), the forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 1.91 billion, 2.21 billion, and 2.50 billion yuan respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [6] - Trina Solar (688599) has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025 and 2027 due to increased competition, but maintains a "buy" rating based on growth in new business contributions [6] - Yum China (09987.HK) reported a significant increase in store openings and same-store sales growth in Q3, driven by innovation and efficiency improvements [7]