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格林期货早盘提示-20250904
格林大华期货· 2025-09-04 03:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The vegetable oil sector is expected to maintain a long - term bullish outlook, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips. The double - meal market has shown a bottoming trend, and new long positions can be considered [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Quotes - On September 3, the vegetable oil sector was weak due to the decline in palm oil. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends in terms of price and position changes. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8366 yuan/ton, up 0.12% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 5540 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On September 3, NYMEX crude oil futures fell more than 2%, and the OPEC oil - producing alliance was expected to consider raising the oil production target again in October. In August, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to be 1.86 million tons, exports were 1.45 million tons, and inventory was estimated to be 2.2 million tons, a significant increase from the end - July inventory. Canada's estimated rapeseed production was 20.1 million tons, a 12.9% increase from the July estimate. The SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. The SGS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in August increased by 30.5% compared with July. As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China increased by 4.22% week - on - week and 19.10% year - on - year [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of September 3, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8610 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9400 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [2] 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, the weak demand outlook for US soybeans pressured US soybean oil, and the expected increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August and the Indonesian President's attendance at the event led to high - level oscillations in Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, except for the increase in soybean oil inventory, rapeseed oil destocking accelerated, and palm oil inventory accumulated slowly. With the approaching of the fall semester and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand increased. It was expected that the soybean oil inventory in factories would soon reach its peak and then gradually decrease, and the spot basis of soybean oil and palm oil would strengthen [2] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - Unilaterally, the medium - to - long - term outlook for oils is bullish. Existing long positions should be held, and a strategy of buying on dips should be maintained. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Quotes - On September 3, the arbitrage strategy of selling oil and buying meal was switched, and the double - meal market closed higher. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends in terms of price and position changes. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 3066 yuan/ton, up 0.52% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10640 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - In July 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 205 million bushels, a 4.1% increase month - on - month and a 6.2% increase year - on - year, but lower than analysts' expectations. As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than market expectations. As of August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations. Brazil's estimated soybean exports in August were 8.9 million tons, and estimated soybean meal exports were 233,000 tons. As of the 35th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China increased by 359,000 tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory of domestic soybean meal increased by 16,000 tons [2][3] 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of September 2, the spot price of soybean meal was 3068 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2532 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton month - on - month. The crushing margins of US and Brazilian soybeans in October were negative, and the arrival costs of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins were provided [3] 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, the lack of Chinese purchasing intention pressured US soybeans to fall. Domestically, the spot market was weak due to light trading at the beginning of the month. The impact of domestic imported soybean auctions on the spot market was limited. The procurement of imported soybeans in October was nearly completed, but the procurement progress for November - January was less than 20%. The pre - sale of Australian rapeseed meal by COFCO and the market rumors about the approval of Australian rapeseed genetic certificates, although untrue, were expected to become a reality over time [3] 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - Unilaterally, the double - meal market is expected to rise in the medium term, and new long positions can be established. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of soybean meal from March to May [3]