Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For China, the energy strategy is to clean up traditional energy and shift the development focus to non-fossil energy. It is recommended to overweight industries related to non-fossil energy substitution in China, such as non-ferrous metals and rare earths, and wait for the opportunity of coal's bottom - rebound [1]. - For the US, the energy strategy is to prioritize traditional energy and restrict the development of new energy. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on crude oil and consider buying on dips to obtain geopolitical conflict premiums [1]. Summary by Relevant Content China's Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: In 2026, coal demand will peak and production will continue to decline, with a structural adjustment of the coal industry. The domestic coal consumption will remain at the peak of 4.8 - 5 billion tons during 2026 and the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The state will control the scale of new coal - fired power plants, promote the upgrading and transformation of coal - fired power, and develop new coal chemical industry to improve coal utilization efficiency. The coal production growth rate may turn negative in 2026, and production will be concentrated in resource - rich areas [5][8]. - **Petroleum**: To reduce the dependence on oil imports (73.2% in 2025), China will encourage oil exploration and development in 2026, open up the market access for oil and gas exploration, and utilize deep - sea, deep - layer and unconventional oil and gas resources. The "14th Five - Year Plan" will continue to guide the exit of backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry to solve the over - capacity problem [10][11]. New Energy - China has introduced a series of fiscal policies to support new energy development, including tax incentives, subsidies, special funds, and financing support. With the support of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the substitution of new energy for fossil energy is sustainable. The key is to develop energy storage facilities to solve the intermittency and volatility of new energy power generation [12][14]. US Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: The US energy strategy prioritizes traditional energy, with a focus on expanding domestic development. The demand for coal for power generation may increase significantly due to the growth of data centers' power demand. The US government has strong policy support for the coal industry, including providing more mining land, tax incentives, etc. [18][19][23]. - **Petroleum**: The US has set a high production increase target for oil. Although shale oil production is expected to be stable in 2026, traditional oil production will continue to increase slightly. The overall oil price is expected to fluctuate widely between $50 - 60 per barrel in 2026 if geopolitical risks subside [23][24]. Restriction on New Energy and Electric Vehicles - The US restricts the development of electric vehicles and non - fossil energy. The cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies may reduce the demand and penetration rate of electric vehicles, increasing the demand for gasoline and coal - fired power. The "Great and Beautiful Act" and other policies also limit the development of non - fossil energy [26][29]. Analysis of Sino - US Energy Strategy Differences - **Objective Conditions**: The differences in Sino - US energy strategies mainly come from resource endowments. China aims for non - fossil energy substitution to achieve green development and carbon peak goals, while the US tends to increase production of fossil energy [30]. - **Import - Export Structure**: China is highly dependent on imported oil and gas, while the US is a major energy exporter. China will reduce its dependence on imported traditional energy, and the US will develop domestic oil resources [30]. - **Use of Traditional Fossil Energy**: In China, coal is used for power generation, coal chemical industry and steelmaking, while in the US, 90% of coal is used for power generation and export [32]. - **Power Grid Infrastructure**: China's power grid is state - led and unified, with advanced energy storage technology to support non - fossil energy substitution. The US power grid is market - driven, which amplifies the problems of non - fossil energy power generation [32][33]. Investment Recommendations - **Coking Coal Futures**: The transformation of coal chemical industry is expected to relieve the pressure of over - capacity of coking coal. The price is expected to bottom out in 2026Q4 - 2027. Pay attention to coking coal 202610 [34]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The pattern of oversupply of oil may continue in 2026. With the decline of geopolitical risks, it is advisable to buy on dips [34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals ETF**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to continue to rise in 2026 due to the dual benefits of financial and industrial attributes. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and the demand from the "14th Five - Year Plan" for clean energy and power grid construction support the upward trend [35]. - **Rare Earth ETF**: Rare earths have strategic and industrial attributes, playing an important role in trade negotiations and new energy industries. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of attention and allocation [35].