Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, closing at a significant high, driven by weak U.S. economic data and strong expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - Weak U.S. economic data: October saw a significant reduction in job openings, and early November consumer confidence index dropped sharply due to recession fears, reinforcing expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - Strong rate cut expectations: CME Group data indicates a 64% probability of a rate cut in December, rising to approximately 77% in January, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve: Some officials support rate cuts while others remain cautious, creating policy uncertainty that provides upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - Impact of government shutdown: Although the shutdown may soon end, the lingering economic damage continues to bolster expectations for rate cuts and does not diminish gold's safe-haven demand [2]. - Global trade uncertainties: Changes in U.S. tariff policies and a decline in U.S.-China import volumes amplify economic risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily chart analysis: Gold exhibited a strong upward trend on Monday, closing with a significant bullish candlestick. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. Key support is at the 5-day moving average around 4035, with resistance levels at 4134 and 4192/4193, corresponding to key Fibonacci retracement levels [3]. - Four-hour chart analysis: After breaking through the critical level of 4046, gold continues its strong upward trajectory. The current structure is likely a "double three-wave" pattern. The upward movement from the low of 3886 to 4046 is identified as the X-A wave, while the subsequent drop to 3928 is the X-B wave. The current rise from 3928 is identified as the X-C wave, which is expected to unfold in five waves [5]. - Detailed wave structure: The rise from 3928 to 4019 is considered the first wave, followed by a drop to 3965 as the second wave. Gold is currently in the third wave of the X-C wave, with a focus on the continuation of this upward trend. Observations will be made for any signs of resistance to anticipate the fourth wave's adjustment [5].