Market Overview - Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a decline in early trade due to foreign fund outflows and concerns over potential US tariff hikes [1][3] - The BSE Sensex fell by 78.84 points to 84,102.12, while the NSE Nifty decreased by 21.50 points to 25,850.85 [1] - The previous trading day saw the Sensex drop by 780.18 points (0.92%) to 84,180.96 and the Nifty tumble by 263.90 points (1.01%) to 25,876.85 [2] Institutional Activity - Foreign institutional investors sold equities worth ₹3,367.12 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) purchased stocks worth ₹3,701.17 crore [3] - The Indian equity market is characterized by a cautious sentiment following the significant sell-off in the previous session [3] Sentiment and External Factors - Concerns regarding potential US tariff actions related to India's Russian oil imports have contributed to fragile market sentiment [4] - The lack of progress in US-India trade discussions is causing caution among institutional investors, particularly foreign ones [4] - In contrast, Asian markets showed mixed performance, with South Korea's Kospi, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Shanghai's SSE Composite indices trading higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined [4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.53% to $62.32 per barrel [5]

虽然全球最大经济体在构筑关税壁垒，但大部分国际机构的统计数据都证实，全球商品贸易在2025 年仍然保持了相对良好的势头。 不过，在整体韧性之下，暗流涌动，贸易的轨迹发生了转变：美国进口量下降，非洲、中东、拉丁美 洲等发展中经济体的进口量均呈现强劲增长态势。 美国知名智库海事战略中心研究员、航运业明星分析师麦科恩（John McCown）在最新一期研究报 告中称，10月全球集装箱货运量同比增长2.1%，但世界集装箱供应链已经开始调整和重塑贸易模 式，"在美国2024年全年集装箱进口量增长15.2%之后，如果说2025年的年度总数将与此截然相 反，那都是轻描淡写了。" 本文字数：2366，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 2025.12. 26 麦考恩认为，特朗普政府的贸易威胁是货物运输模式重塑的主要原因之一。他认为，如果说2025年 是关税之年，那么2026年将是关税后果显现之年。 与此同时，大部分贸易专家都预计，未来一年国际贸易动荡将加剧，而其中有四个"不确定性"最为 关键，分别是：重新审查美墨加协定（USMCA）、重启红海之路、协议的不确定性和美国最高法院 对特朗普政府关税的裁决。 重审美墨加 ...

研究机构预估台湾2026年经济增速放缓至3.71% 中新社台北12月22日电 台湾"中研院"22日召开"2026年台湾经济情势总展望"记者会指出，受高基期效 应、全球贸易不确定性及岛内产业结构分化等因素影响，2026年台湾经济扩张力道趋缓，预估GDP增速 降至3.71%。 "中研院"分析指出，台湾对外贸易面临结构性挑战。2026年，电子及资通讯产品出口仍将支撑台湾整体 出口表现，但传统产业受美国关税冲击、全球需求放缓以及大陆市场竞争影响，出口动能明显受抑。数 据显示，2025年台湾商品与服务输出增长率达32.09%，预计2026年将大幅降至8.41%。 在内需领域，台湾民间消费复苏乏力。2025年前三季度，受美国关税政策不确定性与金融市场震荡影 响，台湾民间消费信心偏弱，民众对耐用品消费支出趋于保守，全年实质民间消费增长率仅约1.35%。 尽管2026年税制调整、相关补助与车市政策将发挥拉动作用，民间消费增长率有望温和回升至2.13%， 但产业景气不均与就业前景隐忧仍将牵制消费动能。 民间投资方面，2025年全年实质民间投资年增率预估为10.56%，2026年受高基期效应影响，增速将明 显放缓，降至1.81% ...

中新社台北12月18日电 台湾当局财政事务主管部门统计处近日透露，2025年全台税收或出现300亿至 500亿元(新台币，下同)短征。《联合报》等媒体表达忧心，税收成长趋缓，长期性、高金额的军购支 出，势将挤压民生、社会福利与减税空间。 社论亦指，台湾近年特别预算规模不断膨胀，如明年度编列"强化防卫韧性及不对称战力特别预算""社 会韧性特别预算"等，合计金额达2.2万亿元。民进党当局领导人赖清德上台一年多，编列特别预算已逼 近蔡英文任内八年的2.57万亿元总规模。特别预算"常态化"弱化既有预算审议机制，考验财政纪律。 标普全球评级子公司中华信评日前发布"2026年台湾信用展望"并指出，受AI基础设施投资动能放缓及全 球贸易不确定性升高的影响，2026年台湾出口与投资或降温，经济成长动能面临回落，预计降为 2.4%，财政承压态势恐加剧。(完) 台湾防务主管部门18日的最新消息称，美国政府就总额逾111亿美元的8项对台军售案启动"知会国会"程 序。此案属台当局1.25万亿防务特别预算范畴，待台立法机构审议通过后将办理签约。台媒指出，同期 出现的税收短征这一变化，释放出警讯。 《联合报》18日社论指出，在经济增长率 ...

Core Insights - The South Korean government forecasts that the country's export value will exceed $700 billion for the first time in 2025, setting a new historical record, although exports excluding semiconductors are expected to decline year-on-year [1][3][4]. Export Performance - From January to November, South Korea's total export value reached $640.2 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest level for the same period, surpassing the previous record of $628.7 billion in 2022 [1][3]. - Exports excluding semiconductors amounted to $487.6 billion during the same period, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [5]. Sector-Specific Trends - The automotive, shipbuilding, biopharmaceutical, and computer sectors saw export growth of 2%, 28.6%, 7%, and 0.4%, respectively, while all other sectors experienced declines [5]. - Notable declines were observed in machinery exports (down 8.9%), petroleum products (down 11.1%), petrochemicals (down 11.7%), and steel exports (down 8.8%). Additionally, exports of automotive parts, displays, home appliances, and secondary batteries fell by 6.3%, 10.3%, 9.4%, and 11.8%, respectively [5]. Semiconductor Dependency - In November, semiconductors accounted for 28.3% of South Korea's total export value, the highest proportion recorded this year, raising concerns about the country's over-reliance on the semiconductor industry [5]. - Historically, from 2002 to 2010, semiconductors represented about 10% of South Korea's total exports [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the stock market, delayed Fed rate - cut expectations, and increased global trade uncertainties. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy signals at the end of the month in the short term [1][3] - For trading strategies, the 2603 contract of treasury bond futures is neutral for unilateral trading; pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis for arbitrage; and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Economic indicators (monthly update): Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a decrease of 0.20 percentage points and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.20%, with an increase of 0.20 percentage points and a growth rate of 0.41% [10] - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 99.42, with a decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 0.05%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0710, with a change of 0.000 and a decline rate of 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.18%; DR007 is 1.46, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.60%; R007 is 1.51, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, with a change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.11% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On December 1, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 114.37 yuan respectively, with the corresponding price changes of 0.03%, 0.10%, 0.12%, and - 0.08% [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.037 yuan, - 0.149 yuan, - 0.143 yuan, and - 0.139 yuan respectively [3] - There are multiple figures showing the closing price trends, price changes, capital flow, position ratios, etc. of treasury bond futures [7][12][15] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. The general public budget expenditure increased only by 2% year - on - year and slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, the social financing and credit maintained a low - level expansion, while government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. The M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy [2] - On December 1, 2025, the central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.307%, 1.454%, 1.477%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2] - There are multiple figures showing the Shibor rate trends, inter - bank certificate of deposit yields, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transactions, and local government bond issuance [7][26][29] 3.4 Spread Overview - There are multiple figures showing the inter - term spread trends of treasury bond futures and the term spread between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [7][28][33] 3.5 Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][36][46] 3.6 Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][48][52] 3.7 Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][54][56] 3.8 Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - There are figures showing the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][61][67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. There are also differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan increase (0.15%) month - on - month. M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, down 0.20% (- 2.38%) month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (- 1.61%) month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.39 (- 0.39%) day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0944, down 0.012 (- 0.16%) day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (- 0.97%) day - on - day. DR007 was 1.45, down 0.02 (- 1.10%) day - on - day. R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (- 1.24%) day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day [10]. 2. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Macro Policy**: On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market Treasury bond trading operations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached three consensuses. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, while retaining the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Market Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.22 yuan, and 115.16 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.08%, and - 0.33% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.056 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (January - October 2025)**: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure expenditures [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, with strong government bond issuance and weak corporate and household financing demand. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.433%, 1.540%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation - **Inter - period Spreads of Treasury Bond Futures**: The report mentions various inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [29][33] - **Implied Yields and Basis Spreads**: It provides information on the implied yields and basis spreads of different - term Treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [36][48][55][62]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the funding rate [36][37]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: It presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TF main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [48]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the T main contract's IRR and the funding rate [55]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are presented [57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TL main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [62][65]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [68]. Strategies - **Single - sided Strategy**: With the decline in repurchase rates, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in basis spreads [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market, weak US employment, divergent expectations of Fed rate cuts, and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%) month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a 0.20% (-2.38%) decrease; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.80% (-1.61%) decrease [11]. - The US dollar index is 100.22, with a 0.09 (+0.09%) increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1179, with a 0.007 (+0.10%) increase; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a 0.03 (-1.82%) decrease; DR007 is 1.49, with a 0.03 (-1.81%) decrease; R007 is 1.51, with a 0.02 (-1.24%) decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.46 yuan, 105.94 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 115.87 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and - 0.21% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.004 yuan, 0.000 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, and 0.337 yuan respectively [4]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by 2% year - on - year [3]. - At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [3]. - On November 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a 300 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [3]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.364%, 1.460%, 1.546%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [3]. 4. Spread Overview - There are various spread data in the report, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][36][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [39][41]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate [59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate [66]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, closing at a significant high, driven by weak U.S. economic data and strong expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - Weak U.S. economic data: October saw a significant reduction in job openings, and early November consumer confidence index dropped sharply due to recession fears, reinforcing expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - Strong rate cut expectations: CME Group data indicates a 64% probability of a rate cut in December, rising to approximately 77% in January, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve: Some officials support rate cuts while others remain cautious, creating policy uncertainty that provides upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - Impact of government shutdown: Although the shutdown may soon end, the lingering economic damage continues to bolster expectations for rate cuts and does not diminish gold's safe-haven demand [2]. - Global trade uncertainties: Changes in U.S. tariff policies and a decline in U.S.-China import volumes amplify economic risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily chart analysis: Gold exhibited a strong upward trend on Monday, closing with a significant bullish candlestick. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. Key support is at the 5-day moving average around 4035, with resistance levels at 4134 and 4192/4193, corresponding to key Fibonacci retracement levels [3]. - Four-hour chart analysis: After breaking through the critical level of 4046, gold continues its strong upward trajectory. The current structure is likely a "double three-wave" pattern. The upward movement from the low of 3886 to 4046 is identified as the X-A wave, while the subsequent drop to 3928 is the X-B wave. The current rise from 3928 is identified as the X-C wave, which is expected to unfold in five waves [5]. - Detailed wave structure: The rise from 3928 to 4019 is considered the first wave, followed by a drop to 3965 as the second wave. Gold is currently in the third wave of the X-C wave, with a focus on the continuation of this upward trend. Observations will be made for any signs of resistance to anticipate the fourth wave's adjustment [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, most treasury bond futures closed lower the previous day. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, with the decline of repo rates and the fluctuating prices of treasury bond futures, the 2512 contract is neutral; in the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract; in the hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - side traders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of 0.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan or 0.79%; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.40%, a decrease of 0.40 percentage points or 4.55% compared to the previous period; the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points or 1.61% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 100.16, a decrease of 0.05 or 0.05%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1310, with no change; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, an increase of 0.01 or 0.57%; DR007 was 1.44, an increase of 0.01 or 0.81%; R007 was 1.53, an increase of 0.02 or 1.49%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.57, a decrease of 0.01 or 0.40%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a decrease of 0.40% [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Markets - The overview includes multiple figures such as the closing price trend of the continuous main contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the proportion of positions held in each treasury bond futures variety, the net position proportion of each treasury bond futures variety (top 20), the long - short position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety (top 20), the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [13][16][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - It involves figures such as the trend of Shibor interest rates, the trend of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [23][24]. 4. Spread Overview - This part contains figures showing the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, and 2*TS - 3*TF + T, as well as the cross - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety [28][32][33]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes figures of the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [35][39][46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures are the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It covers figures such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][67].