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保龄宝(002286):产品结构优化驱动盈利改善 功能糖龙头再谱新篇章
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 00:36
Group 1 - The company has introduced professional managers to assist in reform and optimize product structure, leading to improved profitability. The company, established in 1997, has a diverse product matrix in functional sugars and nutritional supplements, consisting of five layers: starch sugars, reduced-sugar sweeteners, prebiotics, dietary fibers, and special functional food ingredients. After the peak and subsequent decline of erythritol in 2019, the company adjusted its operational strategies and product structure during the industry downturn, resulting in a significant rebound in profits and gross margin improvement last year [1] - Erythritol is benefiting from anti-dumping measures, and there is a focus on the domestic market potential for allulose. Following the surge in popularity of erythritol in 2021, prices have stabilized at a low point due to new production capacities. The company has an annual capacity of 30,000 tons and is the domestic enterprise with the lowest anti-dumping tax rate in the EU, which is expected to lead to a rise in both volume and price in the European market. The optimal marginal pricing for the company in Europe is estimated at 15,800 yuan per ton, higher than the domestic price of 6,500 yuan per ton. Additionally, the U.S. has initiated a "double anti" investigation against Chinese erythritol, with preliminary anti-dumping tax rates set at 260%-450%. The company is not a mandatory respondent, and attention should be paid to the market changes in the U.S. following the May tax rate announcement. Allulose, as a new star in the sugar substitute market, has significant growth potential, with domestic approval expected in March [1][2] Group 2 - In 2024, all major segments of the company achieved growth in both sales and gross margin, with stock incentives reflecting confidence in future development. The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 111 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106%. The growth was driven by increased sales and gross margins across key revenue segments, with sales volumes for prebiotics, dietary fibers, reduced-sugar sweeteners, starch sugars, and others reaching 357,000 tons, 214,000 tons, 500,000 tons, and 2,426,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 23.74%, 14.39%, 41.66%, and 2.29%. Gross margins for these segments were 24.60%, 18.12%, 9.09%, and 12.22%, with year-on-year increases of 5.26 percentage points, 5.48 percentage points, 7.83 percentage points, and 2.17 percentage points. The company announced stock incentives for 2024, with performance targets for 2025-2027 set at 170 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 265 million yuan, corresponding to growth rates of 53%, 25%, and 25%, demonstrating confidence in future development [2] Group 3 - Profit forecasts and valuations indicate that the company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, 216 million yuan, and 260 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE valuations of 20.07, 16.82, and 13.99 times. The initial coverage has been initiated with a "buy" rating [3]