张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日早参 2025 年 12 月 30 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 仇文竹 债券策略研究组长 座机：13910895671 邮箱：qiuwenzhu@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：12 月海外增长数据整体超预期 12 月美联储如期降息并启动扩表、联储主席人选博弈加剧；日央行加息、日 本释放干预日元信号；欧央行按兵不动；俄乌和平进程进入关键期；全球多 数市场在流动性宽松预期推动下整体上涨。增长数据方面，12 月美欧服务业 PMI 有所回升，美欧制造业延续走弱态势，日本制造业低位回升；通胀方 面，美国 11 月 CPI 降温超预期，主要受政府关门影响；市场方面，经济数据 整体好于预期，10 年期美债收益率上行，美国三大股指集体上涨，美元走 弱，欧元升值、日元贬值，大宗商品涨跌不一，布伦特原油下跌，黄金、 LME 铜大幅走高。 风险提示：联储独立性削弱，地缘政治不确定性。 研报发布日期：2025-12-29 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 S ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bailong Chuangyuan with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of RMB 28.00, corresponding to a 25x PE for 2026 [1][5][7]. Core Insights - Bailong Chuangyuan is positioned as a leader in the functional sugar sector, benefiting from a product mix that aligns with health trends, strong technical barriers providing pricing power, and a global production layout that supports sustained leadership in the functional sugar market [1][14][35]. - The company is expected to experience robust growth driven by the release of dietary fiber and prebiotic capacities in the first half of 2026, alongside the penetration potential of allulose sugar, which is anticipated to become a new growth driver [1][2][35]. Summary by Sections Beta Dimension - Bailong Chuangyuan focuses on the functional sugar sector, with three main product categories—prebiotics, dietary fibers, and allulose sugar—benefiting from the global "sugar reduction" and health upgrade trends [2][15]. - The global market for prebiotics is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% from 2024 to 2030, driven by increasing consumer awareness and supportive policies in dairy and infant formula sectors [2][15]. - Dietary fibers are expected to see a CAGR of 10.0% from 2024 to 2030, with resistant dextrin leading the growth due to its enhanced functionality [2][15]. - Allulose sugar is anticipated to have a CAGR of 16.9% from 2024 to 2030, as it expands from beverages to baked goods, supported by regulatory approvals in key markets [2][15]. Alpha Dimension - The company leads in market share within the functional sugar industry, with significant global market positions in dietary fibers, prebiotics, and allulose sugar [3][16]. - Technical advantages include high purity and low-cost production methods for resistant dextrin and allulose sugar, which enhance competitive positioning [3][16]. - Customer stickiness is strong, with 67% of revenue coming from overseas markets, where the competitive environment is less aggressive than in domestic markets [3][16]. - The company’s flexible production management allows for efficient capacity allocation, focusing on high-value products, and plans for expansion in Thailand are expected to further enhance global competitiveness [3][16]. Market Perspective - The report counters market concerns regarding domestic competition leading to price wars, emphasizing the company's high overseas revenue proportion and the customized nature of its products, which create high switching costs for customers [4][16]. - The business model is designed to mitigate risks associated with capacity expansions by competitors, as the company's products are closely tied to long-term health trends rather than short-term price competition [4][16]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 3.6 billion, RMB 4.7 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, RMB 1.12, and RMB 1.48 [5][10].

Core Insights - The project "Key Technologies and Industrialization of Functional Carbohydrate Bio-manufacturing" by Shandong Bailong Chuangyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and Jiangnan University has been recognized in the national "14th Five-Year" list of advanced technological innovations in light industry, highlighting significant technological breakthroughs and industrial value [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Bailong Chuangyuan has established a close partnership with Jiangnan University since its inception, focusing on long-term technological collaboration in the field of functional carbohydrates [2]. - The company has developed a series of new functional carbohydrate products by addressing industry challenges such as low preparation efficiency and complex synthesis pathways through key enzyme gene exploration, bio-synthesis pathway transformation, and enhanced biocatalysis [2]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The technological achievements are expected to drive technological upgrades in downstream industries such as food, health products, and pharmaceuticals, promoting comprehensive innovation across the industry chain [2]. - The project aims to transform China's functional sugar industry from a "raw material supply base" to a "high value-added nutrition and health sector," significantly enhancing the market competitiveness and share of related domestic products [2]. - The implementation of these technologies will provide higher quality health food raw materials to the public and guide the industry towards a health-oriented strategic direction [2]. - By developing advantageous industries for functional foods like resistant dextrin and allulose, the project will enhance agricultural productivity and promote coordinated industrial development, injecting new vitality into regional and industrial economies [2].

Core Viewpoint - Sanwei Biotech announced its commitment to customer-driven innovation in the industrial application of functional sugars, particularly focusing on the growing demand for allulose in international markets [2] Group 1: Allulose Market - The demand for allulose from American clients, including companies like Tyle, is robust, with increasing acceptance in Australia and Southeast Asia [2] - The limited number of domestic manufacturers with production licenses for allulose provides a competitive advantage for the company to capture market share [2] Group 2: Tagatose Market - Japanese downstream companies are accelerating their investments in tagatose, with clients visiting the company to assess production capacity and quality systems for stable raw material supply [2] - A well-known Japanese enterprise is planning to develop food products containing mannose and is researching regulatory registration for mannose based on the company's products [2] - Some collaborations are still in the communication and verification stages, with the company aiming to advance new product launches steadily under compliance [2]

山东三元生物科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-003 |  | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | □ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | □ 投资者关系活动 | 媒体采访 | □ | 业绩说明会 | | □ 类别 | 新闻发布会 | □ | 路演活动 | | □ | 现场参观 | | | | □ | 其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | | | | 上海万纳私募基金管理有限公司杨君弈；中信建投证券股份有限 | | | | | 公司夏克扎提·努力木、杨骥、高畅；和谐健康保险股份有限公 | | | | | 司毛一鹏；平安理财有限责任公司芶思雨；招银国际资产管理有 | | | | | 限公司张慎平；华夏理财有限责任公司何煦；广东正圆私募基金 | | | | | 管理有限公司侯昭慧；中信建投经管委财富管理部客户裘峥、赖 | | | | | 昕；北京坤溪私募基金管理有限公司李任翾；长安汇通集团有限 | | | | | 责任公司李郑浩峰；博道基金管理有限公司陈磊；上海渊泓投资 | | | | | 管理有限公司顾屹泉；淳厚基金管理有限公司顾伟；深圳安瑞置 | | | | 参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main investment logic driving the agricultural sector in 2026 will be both cyclical and growth perspectives, with an expectation of accelerated capacity reduction in the first half of 2026 and a potential upward trend in pig prices [1] Group 1: Cyclical Perspective - In the context of market losses and administrative capacity reduction, capacity deconstruction may accelerate in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [1] - The pig price is expected to fluctuate upwards in 2026 [1] - Companies with leading operational capabilities in the livestock and poultry industry chain are continuously recommended [1] Group 2: Growth Perspective - The domestic demand for the pet sector remains robust, with strong momentum for domestic brands, potentially leading to high growth in performance in the second half of 2026 [1] - In the fruit and vegetable planting sector, the blueberry dividend is expected to continue, with a focus on leading blueberry companies that are increasing planting area, improving planting efficiency, enhancing brand and channel development, and accelerating overseas expansion [1] - The functional sugar sector is anticipated to welcome a super single product in the sugar substitute category [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that in 2026, both cyclical and growth factors will drive the main investment logic in the agricultural sector [1] Group 1: Cyclical Perspective - Due to market losses and administrative capacity reduction, capacity deconstruction may accelerate in Q4 2025 and the first half of 2026, leading to a potential upward fluctuation in pig prices in 2026 [1] - The report continues to recommend companies in the livestock and poultry industry that demonstrate strong operational capabilities and can withstand cyclical fluctuations [1] Group 2: Growth Perspective - The domestic demand for the pet sector remains robust, with strong momentum for domestic brands, potentially leading to high growth in H2 2026 [1] - In the fruit and vegetable planting sector, the blueberry market is expected to continue benefiting from ongoing advantages, with a focus on leading companies that are increasing planting area, improving planting efficiency, enhancing brand and channel development, and accelerating international expansion [1] - The functional sugar sector is anticipated to welcome a super sugar substitute product [1]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Dai Sijue as the chairman of Baolingbao (stock code: 002286) due to personal reasons raises questions about the company's leadership during a challenging market period for erythritol products [1][3]. Company Summary - Dai Sijue submitted his resignation as chairman, director, and head of the board's strategic committee on November 17 [1]. - As of the announcement date, Dai held no direct shares in the company but controlled 29,508,653 shares (7.75% of total shares) through Beijing Yongyu Investment Management Co., Ltd., making him one of the actual controllers of the company [3]. - Beijing Yongyu Investment Management Co., Ltd. was listed as a dishonest executor by Jiangxi Bank with an execution target amount of 253 million yuan [3]. - Dai Sijue became the youngest chairman of an A-share company in 2021, taking office during a favorable period for the erythritol industry driven by the popularity of sugar-free beverages [3][5]. Industry Summary - Baolingbao is a leading company in the erythritol sector, which experienced rapid growth due to collaborations with popular brands like Yuanqi Forest [5]. - The erythritol market has faced challenges due to increased competition leading to oversupply and price wars [5]. - In November 2023, the European Commission initiated an anti-dumping investigation into erythritol products originating from China, adding pressure to the industry [5]. - Despite these challenges, Baolingbao reported a net profit of 111 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105.97%, attributing this success to improved supply chain management and a focus on high-value products [5]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Baolingbao achieved a revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, a 15.98% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, up 32.58% year-on-year [5].

Core Points - The resignation of Dai Sijue, the chairman of Baolingbao, comes at a time when the company is experiencing a strong performance rebound, with a reported net profit of 1.11 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105.97% [4] - Despite the company's recovery, Dai Sijue cited "personal reasons" for his resignation, which raises concerns about potential financial pressures within the controlling shareholder's structure [2][4] - The company has faced challenges, including a significant increase in competition and a price war in the erythritol industry, as well as an anti-dumping investigation by the European Union [4][6] Company Performance - Baolingbao reported a net profit of 1.11 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 105.97% increase year-on-year, with a significant rise in non-recurring net profit by 254.56% [4] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.98%, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, up 32.58% [4] - The growth is attributed to increased sales of core products such as sugar-reduced sweeteners, prebiotics, and dietary fibers, along with improved gross margins due to cost reduction and efficiency enhancements [4] Shareholder Dynamics - The actual control of Baolingbao shifted from Dai Sijue alone to a joint control structure with his brother, Dai Sicong, in August 2024 [6] - A promised shareholding increase by the new controlling entity has faced delays, with the initial commitment to increase holdings by at least 5% not being met due to "funding arrangements" [7] - As of the resignation announcement, Dai Sijue held 29.51 million shares through his investment company, representing 7.75% of the total share capital [7]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Dai Sijue, the chairman of Baolingbao, comes at a time of strong performance recovery for the company, raising questions about underlying financial pressures within the controlling shareholder's structure [5][6]. Company Overview - Baolingbao's stock price was reported at 10.86 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4.064 billion yuan as of November 17 [2]. - Dai Sijue, born in January 1995, became the youngest chairman in A-share market history at the age of 26 in March 2021 [3][6]. - His tenure lasted approximately four and a half years, during which he faced significant challenges, including industry fluctuations and an EU anti-dumping investigation [4][6]. Performance Analysis - Despite the challenges, Baolingbao demonstrated resilience, achieving a net profit of 111 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 105.97%, and a significant rise in net profit excluding non-recurring items by 254.56% [8]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.126 billion yuan, up 15.98%, and a net profit of 134 million yuan, reflecting a 32.58% increase year-on-year [8]. Shareholder Dynamics - The actual control of Baolingbao shifted in August 2024 from Dai Sijue alone to a joint control structure with his brother, Dai Sicong [10]. - A planned share buyback by the new controlling entity has faced delays due to "funding arrangements," with the initial commitment to increase holdings by 5% not being met [11][12]. - As of the resignation announcement, Dai Sijue held 29.5087 million shares through his investment firm, representing 7.75% of the total shares [13].