1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on natural rubber is bullish in the short - term, expecting an overall oscillating and bullish performance [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The rainy weather in domestic rubber - producing areas continues to disrupt production, while overseas weather shows a trend of improvement. Mid - stream inventories are slightly accumulating, and downstream demand has increased. With a bullish sentiment in the commodity market, the short - term performance of natural rubber will be oscillating and bullish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Affected by rainfall, the supply in domestic and Thai producing areas is restricted, while the supply in Vietnam is growing steadily. The daily rubber collection volume in Hainan is about 3,000 tons, and there may be continuous rainfall in the future. Yunnan's supply is also affected by rain. In Thailand, rainfall has hindered tapping, and the glue price has stabilized. In Vietnam, the climate is stable, and the supply is increasing [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will fluctuate slightly next week [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 129.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons and an increase rate of 0.14%. The social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 79.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber is 49.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The RU - mixed spread has slightly widened, and the RU - NR main contract spread has also widened slightly [3]. - **Profit**: The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber has improved, the theoretical production profit of Hainan domestic state - owned concentrated latex has expanded, and the delivery profit of Yunnan full - latex has improved but remains negative [3]. - **Valuation**: The absolute price is at a medium - low level, with a neutral valuation, and the valuation of RU relative to NR is low [3]. - **Macro and Policy**: Affected by the state reserve purchase policy and domestic macro - policy sentiment, the situation is bullish [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, go long on RU2601 and short on NR2509, and short the 1 - 9 spread when it is above 1000 [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Driven by the bullish macro - peripheral sentiment, rubber prices continued to rebound. As of July 18, the main RU contract closed at 14,810 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 450 yuan/ton (+3.13%), and the main 20 - number rubber contract closed at 12,675 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 300 yuan/ton (+2.42%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded [9]. - **Position on the Disk**: The position on the disk was stable, and the total position of RU + NR increased slightly [17][23]. - **Spread on the Disk**: The RU - NR spread rebounded, and attention should be paid to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Producing Area Weather**: Overseas producing areas have less rainfall, while domestic areas continue to have rainy weather [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Raw material prices have stabilized [49]. - **Output of Major Producing Countries**: In May, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 369.9 million tons (+1.11%) [62]. - **Export Volume of Major Producing Countries**: In May, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 390.2 million tons (+8.20%) [72]. - **China's Import**: From January to May, China imported 266.2 million tons of natural rubber (+25.28%). In May, the import volume decreased by 13.35% month - on - month, in line with seasonal import expectations [85][100]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory increased slightly. As of July 13, 2025, the social inventory was 129.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 million tons and an increase rate of 0.14% [101][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The tire capacity utilization rate rebounded. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points [109][117]. - **Automobile and Heavy - Truck Production and Sales**: In June, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and the sales volume of heavy - trucks increased month - on - month. In June, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and 8.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. The sales volume of heavy - trucks in June was about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29% [126][137]. - **Tire Export**: From January to June, tire exports were 471 million tons (+4.5%). In June, the export volume of rubber tires was 82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9% [138][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber and Thai latex rebounded [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The futures - spot spread of the mixed rubber continued to widen [158].