光大分析师认为，随着台风季的来临，从供应端来看，第13号台风剑鱼自菲律宾向我国海南省行进，给 海南省以及泰国北部地区等产区带来降雨扰动，原料价格相对坚挺；而从需求端来看，7月全钢和半钢 胎出口同环比明显增加，高于历年同期水平，与关税期限相关，给需求带来明显支撑。基本面偏强，短 期胶价以偏强震荡看待。需求利好支撑下，顺丁橡胶供应端9/10月份有约有45.2万吨/年装置有检修计 划，基本面改善，丁二烯价格震荡偏强。 | 2012 美价 平量 美 买价 | 11,247 现价获得的1 日报 | | 111 | | 成交量 持台 | 日增仓 | 提 标 | 景高 | 16 | 开量 | 昨日 | 作结 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | +220 12935 12945 2 19 | 1 20号径2510 m2510 12540 +1.73% | 24 | | | 58147 59774 | +2568 | 1.92% | 12980 | 12735 | 12735 | 12785 | ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15905 | 265 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12785 | 270 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -105 | -5 20号胶10-11价差(日,元/吨) | -30 | -5 | | 期货市场 | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 3115 | -5 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 132930 | 1723 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 57206 | 2876 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32531 | 3267 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -7221 | 1111 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 178470 | ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，焦煤涨超 6%，燃料油涨超 5%，焦炭涨超 4%，BR 橡胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃、20 号胶涨超 2%；跌幅方 面，胶合板跌超 1%，碳酸锂、苯乙烯小幅下跌。沪深 300 股指期 ...

PTA装置变化 逸盛海南200万吨检修；恒力徽州500万吨检修。 芳烃橡胶早报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 72.9 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 72.9 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 72.9 36545 0 0.70 2025/0 8/21 67.7 585 852 4810 6805 88.48 267.0 156 31 79.0 72.9 33102 15 0.70 2025/0 8/22 67.7 587 857 4870 6865 90.54 270.0 197 38 79.3 72.9 33102 20 0.40 变化 0.0 2 5 60 60.00 2.06 3.0 41 7 0.3 0.0 0 5 -0.3 ...

| | | | Millio | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月22日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) (白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。由于前期降水不足，巴西甘蔗单产有所下降。截止到6月底，巴西中南部地区甘蔗累积单产为79.32吨/公顷，同 比下降11.04%。另外，今年生产进度也偏慢，导致甘蔗和食糖产量同比明显下降。不过，今年的甘蔗制糖比例同比继续增加， 而且从糖醇比价来看，比值依然处于历史震荡区间上沿，美糖上方仍面临一定 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | な女女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉小幅下跌，棉花现货主流销售基差暂稳，现货成交一般。纯棉纱交投尚可，价格总体偏稳。国内7月份库存消化节奏有 所放缓，预计8月份或有所好转，因逐渐临近金九银十旺季，库存偏紧对于价格仍有支撑。国内7月份棉花进口仍在低位，7月进 □5万吨，同比降14.94万吨，环比增2.26万吨；2025年1-7月累计进口52 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/22 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | POY 1 | | | | | | | | | | | | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 65.9 | 573 | 828 | 4660 | 6770 | 89.82 | 255.0 | 135 | 141 | 79.0 | 76.0 | 44907 | -15 | 0.40 | | 8/15 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 TA基差 产销 2025/0 8/14 66.8 571 824 4650 6770 81.06 253.0 148 147 78.3 76.0 46107 -15 0.35 2025/0 8/15 65.9 573 828 4660 6770 89.82 255.0 135 141 79.0 76.0 44907 -15 0.40 2025/0 8/18 66.6 571 833 4670 6770 82.57 262.0 117 139 79.0 76.0 42105 -15 0.45 2025/0 8/19 65.8 575 835 4690 6750 92.26 260.0 128 97 79.0 76.0 37547 -12 0.50 2025/0 8/20 66.8 576 838 4690 6805 85.56 262.0 115 135 79.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Paper pulp: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Sugar: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Apple: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Timber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Natural rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - 20 - number rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Butadiene rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber - provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and offers operation suggestions such as temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined with large intraday drops, spot sales base remained stable, and spot trading was average. Pure - cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices [2] - Inventory digestion in July slowed down, expected to improve in August due to approaching peak season. Cotton imports in July were at a low level, 50000 tons, down 149400 tons year - on - year and up 22600 tons month - on - month. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520000 tons, a 74.2% year - on - year decrease [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Production data from the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of July was favorable. Short - term, US sugar prices may stabilize and rebound due to potentially lower production in Brazil. Medium - term, US sugar futures prices have not reached the bottom [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales rhythm was fast this year, inventory decreased year - on - year, and spot pressure was relatively light. Market focus shifted to imports and yield estimates for the next season. Import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, but the yield for the 25/26 season is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be on the market, with slow coloring, small fruit sizes, and a shortage of high - quality products leading to high prices [4] - As of August 14, national cold - storage apple inventory was 461300 tons, a 49.4% year - on - year decrease. Last week's cold - storage apple removal volume was 50700 tons, a 32.31% year - on - year decrease. Market focus shifted to new - season yield estimates [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all dropped significantly and rebounded in the afternoon. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices declined, and Thai raw material market prices mostly fell [6] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, semi - steel tires decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased to 617000 tons, and China's butadiene port inventory increased to 204000 tons. Suggest temporary observation [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures dropped significantly. Shandong Moon's spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Russian needle pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5250 yuan/ton; broad - leaf pulp was 4150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.099 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. Domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating weakening domestic demand. Suggest temporary observation or range - trading strategy [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. Outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive months, while domestic spot price increases were small, and traders' pressure increased [8] - After entering the off - season, the daily port outbound volume was around 60000 cubic meters with good overall outbound conditions. As of August 15, national port timber inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a 0.65% month - on - month decrease. Suggest temporary observation [8]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].