芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/0 9/25 69.4 609 817 4585 6530 99.65 208.0 151 14 80.6 77.1 32714 -73 1.85 2025/0 9/26 70.1 608 814 4590 6630 93.95 206.0 172 117 80.1 76.8 32714 -70 0.65 2025/0 9/29 68.0 607 817 4590 6650 109.03 210.0 163 137 80.1 77.1 29114 -63 0.35 2025/0 9/30 65.2 584 809 4535 6650 106.19 225.0 112 190 80.1 77.1 30516 -53 0.30 2025/1 0/09 65.2 584 809 4500 6595 106.19 225.0 11 ...

| 《八 国経期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月09日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★★★ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所反弹,新棉一口价报价较节前有所下跌,国庆期间新疆将棉收购价先跌后涨,前期新花水分较 大,导致部分收购价格较低,国庆节期间正常水分收购价多在6-6.2元/公斤区间,较高收购价在6.2-6.3元/公 斤左右。纯棉纱价格稳中偏弱,走货气氛一般,旺季延续不旺的表现。9月份中旬以来,郑棉连续下跌，对于将 棉收购价格形成负反馈,轧花厂 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 15415 | 385 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12465 | 365 | | | 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | 60 20号胶11-12价差(日,元/吨) | 10 | 10 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2950 | 20 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 140720 | -378 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 34149 | -52 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -22185 | 3236 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -11125 | -482 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 145390 | -4420 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 41632 | -402 | | | | 现货市场 | 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 14650 | 350 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15250 ...

期货市场上看，10月9日收盘，天然橡胶期货主力合约报15415.00元/吨，涨幅1.55%，最高触及15445.00 元/吨，最低下探15150.00元/吨，日内成交量达169768手。 【市场资讯】 据外媒报道，马来西亚统计局公布月报显示，2025年8月，马来西亚天然橡胶产量为31285吨，较7月的 35884吨减少12.8%，较2024年8月的35908吨减少12.9%。马来西亚8月天然橡胶库存总量较7月的171153 吨减少7.3%，至158591吨。出口量为39419吨，较7月的37198吨增加6.0%。 节前天然橡胶价格表现偏弱。据监测，天胶主力合约收跌2.02%，20号胶主力收跌2.18%，上海现货价 格下调至14600元/吨附近，基差持稳。 （10月9日）今日全国天然橡 胶价格一览表 | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 天然橡胶 | 类别:标准胶;级别:SCRWF; | 海南宝 | 14650 | 市场 | 山东省 ...

M E G 日期 东北亚乙烯 MEG外盘 价格 MEG内盘 价格 MEG华东 价格 MEG远月 价格 MEG煤制 利润 MEG内盘现金 流（乙烯） MEG总负 荷 煤制MEG 负荷 MEG港口 库存 非煤制负荷 2025/09/24 840 508 4301 4322 4301 196 -822 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/25 820 507 4315 4335 4320 210 -712 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/26 810 506 4294 4315 4302 147 -685 73.4 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/29 810 505 4295 4315 4297 148 -681 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 2025/09/30 805 502 4275 4295 4278 128 -699 73.5 74.4 40.9 73 变化 -5 -3 -20 -20 -19.00 -20.00 -18 0 0 0 0 MEG现货成交 基差对01（+66）附近。 MEG装置变化 山西美锦30万吨检修。 周度观点 近端EG检修回归叠加新 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices, but OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and overseas economic data releases in early October will cause market fluctuations, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely [1][2]. - The supply of asphalt is expected to decrease during the National Day holiday, and the demand is also weak, but the cost side provides some support, so the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [3][4]. - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the high-sulfur fuel oil price is under pressure. The supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is also increasing, and the demand has no specific driving force, so the low-sulfur fuel oil price is also weak [6][7][8]. - The supply of PX is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PX price is expected to decline. The supply of PTA is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also weak, so the PTA price is expected to decline [9][10][11]. - The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the ethylene glycol price is expected to decline [12][13]. - The supply of short fiber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the short fiber price is expected to decline [14][15]. - The supply of bottle chips is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the bottle chip price is expected to decline [16][17]. - The supply of pure benzene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pure benzene price is expected to decline. The supply of styrene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the styrene price is expected to decline [17][18][19]. - The supply of propylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the propylene price is expected to decline [21]. - The supply of caustic soda is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the short term but strong in the medium term, so the caustic soda price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [22][23]. - The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the PVC price is expected to decline [24][25]. - The supply of LLDPE and PP is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the LLDPE and PP prices are expected to decline [26][28]. - The supply of glass is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the glass price is expected to decline in the short term but increase in the medium term [28][30]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the soda ash price is expected to decline [31][32][33]. - The supply of methanol is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the methanol price is expected to decline [35][36]. - The supply of urea is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the urea price is expected to decline [38][40]. - The supply of pulp is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the pulp price is expected to decline [43][44]. - The supply of offset printing paper is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the offset printing paper price is expected to decline [46][47]. - The supply of logs is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the log price is expected to decline [49][50]. - The supply of natural rubber and 20 rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the natural rubber and 20 rubber prices are expected to decline [51][54]. - The supply of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, so the butadiene rubber price is expected to decline [56][58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $63.18, down $2.01 or 3.08% from the previous day; Brent2511 contract settled at $67.65, down $2.1 or 3.01% from the previous day; SC2511 contract rose 3.5 to 492.6 yuan/barrel, and fell 14.2 to 480.3 yuan/barrel in the night session [1]. - **Related News**: Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine on Sunday, causing at least four deaths and dozens of injuries. As of the week ending September 21, diesel and diesel oil exports increased by 85% from the previous week to more than 1.2 million barrels per day, mainly from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. The facilities near the port were attacked by drones this week, temporarily affecting exports [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The geopolitical situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense, providing support for oil prices. As the National Day holiday in China approaches, there are many uncertainties in the geopolitical situation, and oil prices have an upward driving force. On the other hand, OPEC+ will announce its production increase plan for November on October 5, and the supply side will remain under high pressure. Overseas economic data will be released in early October, causing market fluctuations. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and investors need to pay attention to the risk of holding positions. In the short term, the intraday trading range of the Brent main contract is expected to be between $67.8 and $70 [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Gasoline cracking is weak, and diesel cracking is weak; Options: Wait and see [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3439 points (-0.43%) in the night session, and BU2512 closed at 3393 points (-0.53%) in the night session. On September 29, the spot price of asphalt in Shandong was stable at 3500 yuan/ton, the spot price in East China was stable at 3560 yuan/ton, and the spot price in South China was stable at 3510 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, there was a small amount of rush - work demand before the holiday, which was beneficial to the sales of refineries and traders. In addition, some refineries stopped producing asphalt and consumed inventory, driving the total inventory level of refineries to decline slightly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the market trading was relatively dull as the National Day holiday approached, and downstream users purchased on demand. In the South China market, the reduction of rainfall in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions drove the sales of refineries and social inventories, and the sales volume of Foshan warehouse increased compared with the previous period, which was beneficial to the increase of asphalt prices [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the operating rate of domestic asphalt plants on Monday this week was 40.35%, down 9.53% from last Thursday. The total inventory level of refineries was 25.89%, down 1.22% from last Thursday, and the social inventory rate was 34.07%, down 1.24% from last Thursday. Oil prices are oscillating at a high level, and it is expected that there is limited upward space before the holiday, and the cost side provides limited support. The supply and demand of asphalt decreased compared with the previous period before the holiday, and the industry chain can still maintain de - stocking, and the spot price has certain support. There are many uncertainties overseas during the National Day holiday in China, and the situation between the United States and Venezuela will continue to disrupt the supply expectation of asphalt raw materials. In the short term, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Range oscillation; Arbitrage: The spread between asphalt and crude oil oscillates weakly; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [6]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: The FU01 contract closed at 2870 (-2.28%) in the night session, and the LU11 contract closed at 3399 (-2.38%) in the night session. In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Oct/Nov spread was 4.8 to 2.8 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Oct/Nov spread remained at - 0.5 US dollars/ton [6]. - **Related News**: A major oil port operator in Shandong, China, will take measures to ban shadow fleet vessels and restrict the access of other old oil tankers from November 1. On September 30, there were no transactions in the high - sulfur fuel oil 380, high - sulfur fuel oil 180, and low - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities have been attacked continuously, but the refineries and various transportation facilities have also returned from maintenance in a timely manner. The Primorsk port has resumed oil loading after being attacked last Friday, and large refineries such as Ryazan and Volgograd are also in the process of returning to normal. The high - sulfur exports in the Middle East have increased as the power generation demand has subsided, but Iran's exports are still restricted. Mexico's high - sulfur exports have continued to decline due to the commissioning of secondary devices in Olmeca and Tula. The summer power generation demand has completely subsided. Under the background of the decline of high - sulfur cracking and the low cost of tax reform, the feed demand support is still not obvious. The high - sulfur near - end inventory is still at a high level, suppressing the market price. The low - sulfur fuel oil spot window transaction price is at a low level, and the premium continues to decline. The low - sulfur supply continues to increase, and there is no specific driving force for downstream demand [7][8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation; Arbitrage: Pay attention to the opportunity to widen the LU01 - FU01 spread; Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [9]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session; the TA601 main contract closed at 4662 (+6/+0.13%) in the day session and 4580 (-72/-1.55%) in the night session. The PX price rebounded slightly yesterday, and the PX valuation was 817 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars from last Friday. One November Asian spot was traded at 816, and two December Asian spots were both traded at 816. In the PTA spot market, the negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little [9][10]. - **Related News**: According to CCF statistics, the sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: OPEC+ plans to increase oil production again in November, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq has resumed oil exports through Turkey, causing international oil prices to decline. In terms of PX supply, the 390,000 - ton PX plant of Tianjin Petrochemical is planned to restart recently. The maintenance of two 700,000 - ton PX plants of Shanghai Petrochemical and Jinling Petrochemical in the fourth quarter has been postponed to 2026. The short - process plants at home and abroad have increased their loads, and the PX operating rate remains at a high level. In the downstream PTA, the 4.5 - million - ton Fuhai Chuang plant restarted last weekend with a load of 50%. This week, the 1.25 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 1.2 - million - ton Zhongtai plant stopped production, and the 1.1 - million - ton Ineos plant and the 5 - million - ton Hengli Huizhou plant reduced their loads. Currently, the load of Hengli Huizhou has recovered. In October, the 1.1 - million - ton Sichuan Energy Investment and the PTA plant of Hengli Petrochemical Dalian are expected to be overhauled. In November, the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Dushan Energy Phase I and the 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant of Honggang have overhaul plans, and the commissioning of the 3 - million - ton new plant of Dushan Energy has been postponed. The PTA operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in October. Recently, polyester filaments have carried out price promotions, the terminal operating rate has increased, and polyester sales have continued to be boosted. In the fourth quarter, the maintenance of some domestic PX plants has been postponed, and the operating rate is running at a relatively high level. PX is still in a tight balance, and the de - stocking amplitude is smaller than expected; the PTA processing fee valuation is low, the commissioning of new plants is delayed, the planned maintenance volume in October remains relatively high, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The overall profit of the terminal is still poor. The supply - demand side provides limited driving force, and the price is greatly affected by the macro - level and the cost side [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: In the fourth quarter, the PX supply - demand margin is weakening, and the de - stocking amplitude is shrinking; the PTA supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large; the terminal operating rate has increased, but the profit is poor. There is still inventory accumulation pressure on crude oil and PTA. It is recommended to short on rallies; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [11][12]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4224 (+11/+0.26%) yesterday and 4185 (-39/-0.92%) in the night session. Currently, the spot basis is at a premium of 64 - 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is 4289 - 4293 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, several next - week spot transactions were at a premium of 68 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The basis of the October futures is at a premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the negotiation price is around 4293 - 4295 yuan/ton [12]. - **Related News**: According to CCF, the inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was about 409,000 tons yesterday, down 58,000 tons from the previous period. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated yesterday, and the average sales volume was estimated to be 3 - 40% by around 3 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, and the average sales volume was 52% by around 3:00 pm [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant of Fuzhou Refining is planned to stop for maintenance for about two weeks in October. The 300,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant of Shanxi Meijin is planned to stop for maintenance from September 25, and it is expected to restart in mid - October. From the end of September to early October, the 900,000 - ton satellite petrochemical and the 260,000 - ton Jianyuan ethylene glycol maintenance plants are expected to restart, and the 400,000 - ton MEG of Shenhua Yulin is expected to increase its load. The Tongliao Jinmei and Henan Yongcheng plants have maintenance plans. The 900,000 - ton/year new ethylene glycol plant of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical is planned to start trial production around the end of this month, and the ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase. Overseas, a 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia stopped production due to technical reasons this week, and the restart time is undetermined. During the National Day holiday, the arrival of overseas ships is relatively concentrated, and the market's willingness to sell has increased. Downstream orders are less than the same period last year, the ethylene glycol supply - demand is expected to become looser, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillation weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell call options [14]. Short Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2511 main contract closed at 6336 (+10/+0.16%) in the day session and 6248 (-88/-1.39%) in the night session. The prices of direct - spun polyester staple fibers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained stable, and the mainstream negotiation price of semi - bright 1.4D was 6350 - 6

芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 原油 | 石脑油 日本 | PX CFR 台湾 | PTA内盘现 货 | POY 1 50D/4 8F | 石脑油裂 解价差 | PX加工差 | PTA加 工差 | 聚酯毛利 | PTA平衡 负荷 | PTA负 荷 | 仓单+有 效预报 | TA基差 产销 | | | 2025/0 9/23 | 67.6 | 598 | 803 | 4470 | 6620 | 101.77 | 205.0 | 125 | 209 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -80 | 0.30 | | 2025/0 9/24 | 69.3 | 606 | 812 | 4525 | 6600 | 97.96 | 206.0 | 120 | 140 | 80.6 | 76.8 | 32714 | -75 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 期价偏强运行。新李度苹果方面,采青富士上色速度偏慢。已经订购的货源质量一般。晚熟富士逐渐开始摘袋,今年果个偏 小。另一方面,由于早熟率果行情较好,果农看涨热情较高，预计晚熟富士的开秤价格较高。从基本面看,早熟苹果上市后价 格较高，现货市场对10月份上市的晚熟苹果的开秤价格期望也较高。另一方面，从套袋数据来看，预计25/26季度苹 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月29日 | | 棉花 | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 20号胶 | ななな | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 【20号胶&天然橡胶胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU继续小跌,NR先抑后扬,BR继续下跌,国内天然橡胶和合成橡胶现价稳中有跌,外盘丁二烯港口价格稳定,泰国原料市 场价格总体下跌。供应方面，目前全球天然橡胶供应进入高产期，东南亚等产区降雨天气偏多；上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工 率继续大幅回落，益华橡塑临时停车检修、山东威特继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating bearish" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels. The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts in the market, macro and geopolitical risks [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures declined, with a fluctuation range of 4230 - 4490 yuan/ton. In the first half of the week, the international crude oil price dropped, suppressing the market trend. Both domestic and foreign spot prices fell, and the sentiment of market participants was weak, leading to a rapid decline in the market. However, the domestic propane demand increased month - on - month, the combustion demand improved successively, and the demand expectation increased. In the second half of the week, the crude oil price rebounded, and the market rebounded slightly after reaching the bottom [5] 3.2 Domestic LPG Delivery Product Spot Price and Basis - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the prices of civil gas, imported gas, and ether - post - C4 have different changes. For example, in the East China region, the average price of civil gas decreased by 0.50% week - on - week; in the South China region, the price of Maoming civil gas remained unchanged week - on - week [7] - **Basis**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 1353 to 14327 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread - **Futures Price**: The prices of different LPG futures contracts (PG01 - PG12) showed different degrees of decline compared with the previous week and month. For example, PG01 decreased by 4.36% week - on - week and 1.83% month - on - month [8] - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG02, PG02 - PG03, etc.) also had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG02 decreased by 6.06% week - on - week and increased by 3.33% month - on - month [8] - **Cross - month Spread**: The cross - month spreads (such as PG01 - PG03, PG02 - PG04, etc.) also showed different trends. For example, the spread of PG01 - PG03 decreased by 6.04% week - on - week and 4.76% month - on - month [8] - **Arbitrage**: There are month - to - month and cross - month arbitrage strategies. For example, in month - to - month arbitrage, the spread between PG2511 and PG2512 was 7.9 on the day, and the z - score was 1.7318 [8] 3.4 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - **Main Refineries**: Many main refineries in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, including full - plant maintenance and partial device maintenance of some refineries such as Beihai Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, etc. [9] - **Local Refineries**: Local refineries in Shandong, Northeast, Central China, and Northwest regions also have corresponding device maintenance plans, such as the full - plant maintenance of Shenchi Chemical, Xin泰 Petrochemical, etc. [9] 3.5 LPG Production Device and PDH Device Maintenance Plan - **LPG Production Device**: Some LPG production enterprises in China have device maintenance plans in 2025, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical, Huaxing Petrochemical, etc. [10] - **PDH Device**: Some PDH devices in China are in normal operation, while some are in shutdown or maintenance. For example, Qingdao Jinneng Phase I is in shutdown for maintenance, and it is expected to restart on October 1st [11] 3.6 Fundamental Factors Affecting LPG - **Supply**: Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 539,200 tons. The commercial volume of civil gas was 211,200 tons (a decrease of 4.76%), industrial gas was 212,500 tons (a decrease of 0.75%), and ether - post - C4 was 170,130 tons (a decrease of 1.64%). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 650,000 tons. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and some enterprises will reduce production, so the domestic commercial volume is expected to decline [4] - **Demand**: The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening. In the deep - processing of C4, affected by new energy substitution, the gasoline demand is weakening. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is high. The profit of alkylated gasoline has turned from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - post - market may fall and stabilize. In the deep - processing of C3, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is expected to decline. After the National Day, the operating rate may drop below 65%. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has fallen, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. The PDH device has shown continuous losses from propylene to PP, and the profit negative feedback effect has emerged [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 188,100 tons (an increase of 4.33%), and the port inventory was 3.1366 million tons (a decrease of 3.01%). The storage capacity utilization rate of the domestic LPG market increased last week. The inventory reduction in Northeast, Shandong, and Central China was relatively smooth through price concessions, but affected by adverse factors such as typhoon extreme weather and supply increase, the inventory in East China, South China, North China, and the West continued to increase. At the port, the arrival of ships decreased, and the replenishment of imported resources was insufficient [4] - **Basis and Position**: The weekly average basis in East China was 126.80 yuan/ton, in South China was 357.80 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 301.80 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 14,327 lots, an increase of 1,353 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 69.48%, 58.35%, and 45.51% respectively. The profit of PDH to propylene was - 349 yuan/ton, the profit of MTBE isomerization was - 90 yuan/ton, and the profit of alkylation in Shandong was - 13 yuan/ton [4] - **Valuation**: The PG - SC ratio was - 2.47%, and the spread between PG continuous first and continuous second months was 79 yuan/ton. The continuous increase in crude oil production has dragged down the cost section, and the PG - SC cracking spread has continued to strengthen [4] - **Other Factors**: Crude oil is in a fundamental surplus expectation caused by geopolitical factors, sanctions, and OPEC+ production increase, and maintains range - bound trading. The non - farm payrolls data in the United States in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed people, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and economic slowdown. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and it is expected to cut interest rates by 50bp or more within the year. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short term and tend to be tense [4] 3.7 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment View**: The upstream PG fundamentals lack obvious drivers and tend to be weak. The supply - demand of propylene in the intermediate link is under pressure, and the short - term demand for PP is saturated with a shutdown expectation in the later period. The PDH profit is expected to decline further. Overall, in the short - term, PG prices have fallen from high levels, and the profit negative feedback effect of downstream PDH is prominent [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies include going long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, going long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and going long on SC and short on PG [4]