Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the proximal TA has partial restarts and increased load, with开工 rate rising. Polyester reduces load due to filament production cuts, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, disproportionation and isomerization benefits are compressed, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds. There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. - For MEG, the proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase. Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the开工 rate rises to 91.0% as some plants increase load. Sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken. The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, PTA spot price increased from 102.2 to 118.4, PTA device in Fujian Bahong with a capacity of 2.5 million tons reduced load. The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2605 is - 58 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal TA restarts and increases load, polyester reduces load, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, and the US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread rebounds [2]. - **Outlook**: There are potential short - term long - allocation opportunities as PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized [2]. MEG - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, MEG outer - market price increased from 595 to 640, and the Henan Coal Industry's 200,000 - ton device restarted. The basis of MEG spot transactions is around + 2 for 05 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Proximal domestic oil - based load reduction slows down, coal - based restarts partially, and the开工 rate rises. Overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, the basis is stable, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits increase [2]. - **Outlook**: Supply may still have some load reduction, and with increased export/transshipment trade, the destocking speed may accelerate in the short term. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 8060 to 8320, and the开工 rate rose to 91.0%. The spot price is around 8295, and the market basis is around - 50 for 06 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Some plants increase load, sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. On the demand side, the yarn production start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory is maintained, finished product inventory accumulates, and benefits weaken [2]. - **Outlook**: The short - term upward drive is not strong, and attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased from 2000 to 2015, and there are various price changes in other types of rubber. The main strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: Wait and see [2]. Benzene and Its Derivatives - **Price and Operation Data**: From March 25 to March 31, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 1400 on March 31, and there are price changes in pure benzene, benzene ethylene, and their downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [5]. - **Market Analysis**: No detailed market analysis provided in the given content. - **Outlook**: No outlook provided in the given content.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Natural rubber: Not clearly defined in a standard star - rating form [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides an analysis of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on the market conditions of each commodity [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the Wenhua Commodity Index dropped significantly. Spot basis remained stable, but spot trading demand was weak. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons higher than the same period last year. The domestic peak season showed good performance, and the inventory of cotton yarn and grey cloth was well - digested. The short - term pure cotton yarn sales slowed down. Mid - term, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a bullish strategy [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. The market focuses on Brazil's sugar production forecast. After the rainy season, the rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil is low, and the sugar - making ratio in the new season is expected to decline, so the sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, the production progress in Guangxi this year is slow, and the production is lower than the same period last year. However, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season. The sugar sales of sugar mills this year are poor. In general, the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in the northwest producing areas decreased, and the trading volume in Shandong was small. As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. The trading logic is mainly on the demand side. The demand in the northwest producing areas is good, but the apples in Shandong have poor quality and high purchase prices, which may affect the de - stocking speed. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber WR, and butadiene rubber BR all declined, and the domestic spot prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber also decreased. The global natural rubber supply is entering the production - increasing period. The domestic butadiene rubber device operating rate continued to decline rapidly. The domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, and the production and transportation cost pressure of domestic tire enterprises increased. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 69.14 million tons. It is recommended to wait and see and grasp the cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures rebounded but then declined. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, a 980,000 - ton increase from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase. The overseas quotation of pulp is strong, and the long - term cost has certain support. The domestic pulp demand is generally average, and the procurement of high - price broad - leaf pulp is cautious. The short - term pulp may maintain a low - level range - bound [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, and the domestic spot price was relatively weak. The downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. As of March 27, the national port log total inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease. The low inventory supports the price to a certain extent. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

Report Information - Report title: Funds Flow and Key Seats' Position Changes Daily Report [1] - Report date: March 31, 2026 [1] - Data date: March 30, 2026 [2] Core Content Funds Flow - The report presents the percentage changes in funds inflow and outflow of various varieties, but specific varieties are not clearly identified in the provided content [2] Key Seats' Position Changes - **Morgan Chase**: Shows the net position and daily position changes (increase or decrease) for multiple products such as crude oil, lottery 008 futures, iron ore, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -4% to 12% [2] - **Qiankun Futures**: Displays the net position and daily position changes for products like stainless steel, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -8% to 14% [2] - **UBS Futures**: Presents the net position and daily position changes for products including LPG, etc. The net position and daily position change percentages range from -5% to 4% [2] - **CITIC Futures**: The net position and daily position change percentages range from -15% to 15% [4] - **Guotai Junan**: The net position and daily position change percentages range from -20% to 15% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA restarts and increases production, while polyester reduces production. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, and overseas production cuts continue. There are potential multi - allocation opportunities as PX de - stocking is expected to be gradually realized [3]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based production load reduction slows down, and coal - based production restarts. With overseas production cuts and changes in port inventory, short - term de - stocking speed may accelerate, but the long - term balance sheet is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end production increases, but the short - term upward drive is weak due to the terminal's wait - and - see attitude and the substitution effect of recycled materials. Attention should be paid to potential passive production cuts due to raw material supply limitations [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the PTA inner - disk spot price increased from 6725 to 6810, and the POY 150D/48F price increased from 9075 to 9245. The PTA processing difference changed from 77.7 to 81.8, and the daily average transaction basis was 2605(-58) [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA restarts and increases production, polyester reduces production, inventory accumulates, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees are compressed. PX domestic device load reduction slows down, overseas production cuts continue, PXN improves, and arene spreads between the US and Asia increase [3]. MEG - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the MEG outer - disk price increased from 637 to 657, and the MEG inner - disk price increased from 5223 to 5443. The MEG coal - based profit increased from 1126 to 1281, and the basis was around 05(+5) [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic oil - based production load reduction slows down, coal - based production restarts, overseas production cuts continue, port inventory accumulates, and coal - based and ethane - based benefits improve. Supply may still have some load reduction, and short - term de - stocking speed may accelerate [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber price increased from 8400 to 8460. The short - fiber profit changed from - 34 to - 120, and the spot price was around 8472, with a basis of about 06 - 50 [3]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end production increases, sales improve slightly, inventory accumulates slightly, and spot processing fees weaken. The demand side has stable production start, raw material inventory is maintained, and product inventory accumulates [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price increased from 1970 to 2030, and the Shanghai full - latex price increased from 15825 to 16140. The weekly change in the RU main contract price was 395, and the NR main contract price increased by 790 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The main strategy is to wait and see, and the main contradiction is not specified [3]. Other Aromatic Hydrocarbons - **Price Data**: From March 24 to March 30, the ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained at 1400, the pure benzene (CFR China) price increased from 1072 to 1127, and the styrene (CFR China) price increased from 1335 to 1405 [5]. - **Profit Data**: The styrene domestic profit was 480 on March 30, and the EPS domestic profit was - 962 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market) [1] - Paper pulp: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clear bullish or bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] 2. Core Views - For the cotton and cotton yarn market, the medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish, but concerns exist about potential over - advance consumption. Attention should be paid to subsequent order performance and new - season planting [2]. - In the sugar market, the 25/26 domestic sugar supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and short - term sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [3]. - Regarding the apple market, the trading logic is centered on the demand side. Due to the low cost - effectiveness of Shandong apples, prices are struggling to rise, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. - In the 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and synthetic rubber markets, geopolitical risks are rising, with cost as the main driver, demand relatively stable, and the strategy is to wait and see while seizing cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For the paper pulp market, short - term pulp prices are likely to remain in a low - level volatile range [6]. - In the timber market, low inventory provides some support for prices, and the current operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and spot basis was generally stable. Spot trading demand was weak, but cotton sales volume and progress were significantly better. As of March 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 523.02 million tons, with a decrease of 24.68 million tons from the end of February, and 5.31 million tons more than the same period last year [2]. - The domestic peak season showed a good performance, with continuous increases in the startup rate, and good inventory digestion of cotton yarn and grey cloth. Recently, the sales of pure - cotton yarn have slowed down [2]. Sugar - Last week, US sugar oscillated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas after the rainy season was unfavorable for sugarcane growth. The sugar - to - alcohol ratio has significantly adjusted, and the sugar - production ratio in the new season is expected to decline, resulting in a decrease in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season [3]. - In China, Guangxi's production progress this year is slow, with lower - than - expected output. However, there are strong expectations of an increase in Guangxi's output in the 25/26 season. This year, sugar mills have poor sales due to strong bearish market expectations [3]. Apple - The futures price oscillated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. In the northwest producing areas, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants decreased. In Shandong, trading volume was low. Merchants in Shaanxi and Gansu were mainly looking for high - quality goods, but the remaining high - quality goods were scarce [4]. - As of March 26, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 3.8947 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Last week, the national cold - storage apple outbound volume was 294,500 tons, a 9.66% year - on - year decrease [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures price of natural rubber RU oscillated, the futures price of 20 - rubber NR rose slightly, and the futures price of butadiene rubber BR fell slightly. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price generally rose. The overseas port price of butadiene fell slightly, and the raw material market price in Thailand mostly rose [5]. - Globally, the natural rubber supply has entered the increasing - production period from the low - production period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate continued to decline significantly last week, with many plants under maintenance or reducing production loads. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate also continued to decline [5]. - Last week, the domestic tire operating rate increased slightly, with increased production and transportation cost pressures for domestic tire enterprises. The inventory of all - steel tires in Shandong continued to decline rapidly, while the inventory of semi - steel tires began to decline again [5]. - Last week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 685,600 tons, with increases in both bonded - area inventory and general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 17,000 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory decreased to 23,000 tons [5]. Paper Pulp - Today, the pulp futures price fell slightly, and the spot price remained stable. The domestic pulp port inventory was still at a high level. As of March 26, 2026, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.395 million tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the previous period, a 4.3% month - on - month increase [6]. - Overseas pulp quotations were strong, providing some support for long - term costs. The overseas quotation of broad - leaf pulp increased in March, while that of coniferous pulp decreased. Domestic pulp demand was generally average, with cautious purchases of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and poor downstream base - paper prices and profits [6]. Timber - The futures price was strong. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The overseas quotation increased significantly, while the domestic spot price was relatively weak, and the future arrival volume might be relatively low [7]. - Downstream demand increased, and the port outbound volume increased. Last week, the average daily outbound volume of national ports was 61,400 cubic meters, an 8.36% year - on - year decrease. As of March 27, the total national port timber inventory was 2.89 million cubic meters, a 19.72% year - on - year decrease [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The RU2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,150 - 16,880 in the short - term, and the NR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,100 in the short - term [2] - The overall inventory in Qingdao Port has slightly increased, with the bonded warehouse showing de - stocking and the general trade warehouse continuing to accumulate inventory. The rubber price fluctuates unsteadily, and downstream tire factories replenish their stocks of mixed rubber cautiously [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates narrowly. Some enterprises strive to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 110 yuan/ton; the 5 - 6 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with an increase of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 81,467 lots, a decrease of 10,483 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 43,043 lots, a decrease of 4,390 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 27,787 lots, an increase of 3,667 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,292 lots, a decrease of 674 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,020 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 18,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, a decrease of 103,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.3%, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.89%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.43%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a 0.05 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 1.18 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a 0.03 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.88 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [2]

Hot News - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the global aluminum supply chain as the Middle East accounts for about 10% of global aluminum exports [2] - From April 22 (the night trading session on April 21), QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [2] - Houthi rebels in Yemen launched military operations against Israel, and the military actions will continue, exposing the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to risks [2] - Thailand's Prime Minister said that Thai oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to the agreement with Iran [2] - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister said that Pakistan is facilitating peace talks between the US and Iran, and four foreign ministers' meeting decided to form a committee to work out a conflict - resolution plan [3] Plate Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, low - sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, PP [4] Night - trading Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.63%, precious metals 24.72%, oilseeds and fats 8.99%, soft commodities 2.57%, non - ferrous metals 23.16%, coal, coke and steel ore 10.04%, energy 7.77%, chemicals 16.03%, grains 1.08%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.00% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days from March 23 to March 27, 2026 [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% daily, - 5.99% monthly, - 1.39% annually; S&P 500 fell - 1.67% daily, - 7.41% monthly, - 6.96% annually, etc. [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell - 0.01% daily, - 0.15% monthly, 0.35% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, 0% monthly, 0.23% annually [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index rose 1.93% daily, 17.99% monthly, 23.47% annually; WTI crude oil rose 6.37% daily, 49.49% monthly, 74.78% annually [6] Others - US Dollar Index rose 0.26% daily, 2.59% monthly, 1.94% annually; CBOE Volatility Index rose 13.16% daily, 56.34% monthly, 107.69% annually [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of BDI, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the ratios of gold - to - oil and copper - to - gold, and risk premiums of stocks [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although the domestic reduction of raw material PX has slowed down, overseas production cuts continue, and the valuation of TA itself is at a low level. With downstream filament production cuts and approaching the terminal restocking point, PX destocking is expected to be gradually realized. Attention should be paid to phased long - allocation opportunities [3] - For MEG, the supply side still has some production cuts, and the export/trans - shipment trade has increased recently. With the continuous blockade of Middle - East logistics, the arrival volume is expected to decline rapidly, and the short - term destocking speed will accelerate. The long - term balance sheet has high uncertainty, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - For polyester staple fiber, the processing fee is compressed to a low level. Due to the wait - and - see attitude of the terminal and the obvious substitution effect of recycled materials, and the staple fiber itself still has the potential to increase production, the short - term upward driving force is not strong. Attention should be paid to whether there will be passive production cuts due to raw material supply restrictions [3] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main strategy is to wait and see [3] Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 23 to 27, 2026, the PTA spot price increased by 165, the polyester gross profit decreased by 217, the PTA load decreased by 0.2, and the warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 2196. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2605(-63) [3] - **Device Status**: There were no PTA device changes [3] - **Market Situation**: Near - term TA partial restart increased the load, and the polyester load decreased due to filament production cuts. The inventory increased, the basis strengthened slightly, and the spot processing fee was compressed [3] MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 23 to 27, 2026, the MEG outer - disk price increased by 19, the MEG inner - disk price increased by 152, the MEG coal - making profit increased by 86.88, and the MEG inner - disk cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 47. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-45) [3] - **Device Status**: The 200,000 - ton device of Henan Coal Industry restarted [3] - **Market Situation**: Near - term domestic oil - based production reduction slowed down, coal - based partial restart, the start - up rate increased, overseas production cuts continued, the arrival volume increased, and the port inventory increased. The overall arrival forecast volume decreased during the week, the basis was stable, and the coal - making and ethane - making benefits increased [3] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 23 to 27, 2026, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained unchanged, the short - fiber profit decreased by 192, and the pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 50. The spot price was around 8318, and the market basis was around 06 - 50 [3] - **Device Status**: There were no device overhauls [3] - **Market Situation**: Near - term some enterprises increased the load, the start - up rate increased to 91.0%, the production and sales improved slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the spot processing fee weakened. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remained stable, raw material inventory was maintained, the finished - product inventory increased, and the benefits weakened [3] Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 23 to 27, 2026, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price increased by 20, the Shanghai all - latex price increased by 70, and the RU main contract price increased by 50. The weekly changes of the US - dollar Thai standard spot price and the Shanghai all - latex price were 75 and 610 respectively [3] - **Market Situation**: The main strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From March 23 to 27, 2026, the ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained unchanged, the pure benzene (CFR China) price increased by 480, the styrene (CFR China) price increased by 65, and the EPS (East China ordinary material) price increased by 250 [7] - **Profit Changes**: The domestic profit of styrene remained at 136, the domestic profit of EPS was 840, the domestic profit of PS was - 508, and the domestic profit of ABS was - 926, with no daily changes [7]