| | | | 11/11/11 | | 2026年02月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 棉花 | ★☆★ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 20号胶 | 女女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | 女女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 软商品日报 (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉有所上涨，基差总体持稳，下游仍在陆续复工，短期需求反馈一般。近期美棉表现偏强，26年种植面积有减少预期， 叠加国内商品整体偏强的表现,对于郑棉也有所推动。国内商业库存消化良好，未来棉花供给偏紧的预期仍在延续,尤其是新 疆商业库存降速较快。短期棉花需求反馈或一般，继续关注后续金 ...

RU、NR 日报 【银河期货】天然橡胶及 20 号胶每日早盘观察（26-02-27） 天然橡胶及 20 号胶：轮胎小幅增产 【市场情况】 RU 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 17080 点，下跌-45 点或-0.26%。 截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 17000-17100 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 17150- 17200 元/吨，泰国烟片报收 19500-19800 元/吨，产地标二报收 14600-14700 元/ 吨。 NR 20 号胶相关：NR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 13865 点，下跌-45 点或- 0.32%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 200.2 点，下跌-0.6 点或-0.30%。截至前日 18 时，烟片胶船货报收 2440 美元/吨，泰标近港船货报收 2055-2080 美元/吨，泰 混近港船货报收 2055-2080 美元/吨，马标近港船货报收 2045-2070 美元/吨，人 民币混合胶现货报收 15870-15900 元/吨。 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 12760 点，下跌-40 点 或-1.31%。截至前日 1 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 第一部分橡胶品种观点总结 . | | --- | | 第二部分期货市场行情回顾 | | 一、期货行情回顾 | | 二、期货市场仓单情况 | | 第三部分现货市场走势 | | 第四部分基差价差情况 | | 第五部分月间价差情况- | | 第六部分产业供需库存情况 . | | 第七部分期权相关数据 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月26日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周四，橡胶期价冲高后多头获利了解期价出现跳水， 本周2609合约涨幅开始大于近月，现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价6 7.3泰铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/kg；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比 ...

| | | | Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月26日 | | 棉花, | ★☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | なな☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) (白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。巴西方面，市场的关注点转向下榨李的产量预估，进入雨季后巴西中南部主产区的降雨偏少，不利于甘蔗的生 长。另外，由于糖醇比价大幅回调，预计下榨季的制糖比也将下降，26/27榨季巴西的产糖量将有所减少。国内方面，郑糖走势 偏强。产销方面，截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季全国累计产混合糖68 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月25日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周三，橡胶期价延续增仓上行，2609合约涨幅大于近 月，现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价67.3泰铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/k g；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比+0.8泰铢/kg。现货价格方面，盘 后山东地区SCRWF报价16900元/吨，环比+200元/吨。春节后化 工及股市大幅高开，受此提振，橡胶期价增仓再度挑战前高后远月 突破，宏观美国2025年四季度美国GDP增速环比折年率1.4%，远 低于市场预计的2.5%，也低于三季度的修正值4.4%；美国个人消 费支出（PCE）物价指数上 ...

天 然 橡 胶 & 2 0 号 胶 日期 美金泰标 现货 美金泰混 现货 人民币混 合胶 上海全乳 上海3L 泰国胶水 泰国杯胶 云南胶水 海南胶水 顺丁橡胶 RU主力 NR主力 2026/02/1 1 1970 1980 15390 16075 16700 61.0 54.5 14200 15700 12700 16575 13445 2026/02/1 2 1965 1975 15420 15950 16600 62.0 55.0 14200 15700 12700 16450 13370 2026/02/1 3 1955 1965 15330 15815 16550 62.3 55.0 14200 15700 12600 16315 13180 2026/02/2 4 2045 2035 15820 16530 17000 62.3 55.0 14200 15700 12950 17030 13795 2026/02/2 5 2045 2035 15820 16530 17000 62.3 55.0 14200 15700 12950 17240 13980 日度变化 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...

(白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。巴西方面，市场的关注点转向下榨李的产量预估，进入雨季后巴西中南部主产区的降雨偏少，不利于甘蔗的生 长。另外，由于糖醇比价大幅回调，预计下榨季的制糖比也将下降，26/27榨季巴西的产糖量将有所减少。国内方面，郑糖弱势 震荡。产销方面，截至1月31日，2025/26年榨季全国累计产混合糖689万吨，同比减少60万吨；累计销糖270万吨，同比减少103 万吨；工业库存419万吨，同比增加44万吨。从产销数据来看，生产和销售进度都偏慢。销量大幅下降的主要原因是市场看空情 结较强,导致采购较少。产量方面,虽然25/26榨季广西增产预期较强,但是生产进度始终偏慢,关注后续生产情况,操作上暂 时观望。 (苹果) 期价震荡。现货方面,主流价格持稳。需求方面,东西部产区有所分化。山东地区成交不多,容商主要采购中等偏下货源。陕 西、甘肃产区客商则寻找好货为主,但是剩余好货不多，成交有限。库存方面，卓创的数据显示，截至2月5日,全国冷库苹果 库存为563.51万吨，同比下降9%。全国冷库苹果出库量为37.5万吨，同比下降12.81%。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易主线在需 求端。今年苹果质量较差，但是收购价格较 ...

经济观察网 据Choice数据，2月25日，国内商品期市早盘收盘主力合约多数上涨，截至11:30，沪锡涨超 6%，碳酸锂、铂涨超5%，钯涨超4%，沪银涨超3%，焦炭、焦煤、沪镍、纯碱、20号胶等涨超2%，郑 棉、玻璃、铁矿石、原木等涨超1%。跌幅方面，集运指数（欧线）跌近3%，液化石油气跌超1%，尿 素、多晶硅、沪金、白糖等微跌。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the stock market showed a mixed performance with some sectors rising and others falling. The futures market also had different trends in various products, influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [20][21][25]. - The bond market sentiment was not weak, but the market might become more cautious as the "Two Sessions" approached. The medium - term outlook for the bond market was relatively optimistic [25][26]. - In the agricultural product market, the supply and price trends of different products varied. For example, the supply of protein meal increased, and the price oscillated; the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated [30][35]. - In the black metal market, steel faced post - holiday pressure, while the performance of coking coal and iron ore was affected by factors such as production resumption and supply - demand changes [62][65][71]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals like gold and silver were in high - level oscillations due to macro uncertainties, and other non - ferrous metals also had different price trends influenced by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand [76][79][84]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the container shipping market was in short - term oscillations, the dry bulk freight market showed a positive trend after the holiday, and the carbon price in the domestic market oscillated while the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions [122][124][126]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products were affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand, and cost. For example, crude oil was in high - level oscillations, and asphalt was supported by cost but with weak demand [132][136]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - After the Spring Festival, the stock index rose across the board, but the trading volume was slightly insufficient. The market showed a clear differentiation, with some sectors rising and others falling. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, buy on dips, and consider arbitrage and option strategies [20][21][23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Tuesday, the bond futures contracts of various tenors generally strengthened. The central bank's large - scale net withdrawal of short - term liquidity after the holiday and the approaching of the "Two Sessions" affected the bond market sentiment. The trading strategy was to be neutral - bullish and wait and see for arbitrage [25][26][28]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - The supply increased overall, and the price oscillated. The trading strategy was to short at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [30][31]. Sugar - The increase in Indian sugar production was revised down, and the international sugar price bottomed out and oscillated. The domestic sugar market was in a bottom - oscillation trend. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options in the short term [32][35][36]. Oilseeds and Oils - The domestic oil market made up for losses and maintained oscillations. The trading strategy was to wait and see for arbitrage and consider reverse arbitrage for some contracts [38][39][40]. Corn/Corn Starch - The spot price in the production area was stable, and the futures price was in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to buy on dips for the outer - market corn and short lightly on rallies for domestic corn, and consider expanding the spread between corn and starch [41][43]. Live Pigs - The supply increased gradually, and the price continued to decline. The trading strategy was to buy a small amount of the 05 contract and wait and see for arbitrage [44][46]. Peanuts - The spot price was stable, and the futures price oscillated in a narrow range. The trading strategy was to buy lightly on dips and sell put options [47][48]. Eggs - After the holiday, it entered the off - season, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The trading strategy was to short the June contract on rallies and wait and see for arbitrage [50][51][52]. Apples - The market performance varied after the year, with the western region performing slightly better than the eastern region. The trading strategy was to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and consider a long - 5 short - 10 arbitrage [54][55][56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamentals changed little, and the cotton price was supported. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [58][59][60]. Black Metals Steel - There was still pressure on steel after the holiday. The trading strategy was to maintain a weak - oscillation trend, hold short positions, and wait and see for arbitrage [62][63]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coal mines were gradually resuming production. The trading strategy was to consider going long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [64][65][67]. Iron Ore - The fundamentals continued to weaken, and the ore price was in a weak - running state. The trading strategy was to be bearish and wait and see for arbitrage [70][71]. Ferroalloys - The cost support was strong, and it could be used as a long - position configuration on dips. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [72][73][74]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - The macro uncertainties continued, and the prices were in high - level oscillations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions cautiously and consider option strategies [76][79][80]. Platinum and Palladium - Supported by macro and geopolitical factors, platinum could be bought on dips, and palladium could be traded in bands. Consider a long - platinum short - palladium arbitrage [80][81][83]. Copper - Affected by continuous tariff disturbances, the copper price was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the long - term and consider option strategies [84][85]. Alumina - After the decline in the supply - side operating rate, the spot price was supported. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term [86][87]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Tariff disturbances did not change the supply - demand support pattern. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][91][92]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - It oscillated with the aluminum price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [93][95]. Zinc - After the correction stabilized, it could be bought on dips. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [96][97]. Lead - It oscillated in a range. The trading strategy was to go long lightly on dips and consider option strategies [99][100]. Nickel - The macro factors dominated the price fluctuations. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [101][103][104]. Stainless Steel - Supported by cost, it followed the nickel price. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [106]. Industrial Silicon - Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of large factories. The trading strategy was to rebound in the short - term and short on rallies in the medium - term [107][108]. Polysilicon - Driven by merger news, it might rebound in the short - term, and the spot price should be focused on in the medium - term [110][111]. Lithium Carbonate - The demand was good, and the price was at a high level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [113][115]. Tin - Attention should be paid to macro - policy trends. The trading strategy was to hold long positions at low levels and wait and see for arbitrage [118][120]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions Container Shipping - It was mainly in short - term oscillations, and attention should be paid to Maersk's opening - cabin price. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [121][122][124]. Dry Bulk Freight - After the holiday, the demand recovery drove the spot price to improve. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US Maritime Action Plan. The trading strategy was to wait and see [124][125][126]. Carbon Emissions - The domestic carbon price oscillated, and the EU carbon price was affected by policies and public opinions. The trading strategy was to wait and see [126][127][128]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The API inventory increased more than expected. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider the bullish spread, and buy out - of - the - money call options [132][133]. Asphalt - The cost supported the spot price, but the rigid demand had not recovered. The trading strategy was to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips and wait and see for arbitrage [134][136][137]. Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur supply increased, and the low - sulfur price strengthened in the near - term. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the trend, consider expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and wait and see for options [139][140][141]. LPG - It was still dominated by geopolitical factors. The trading strategy was to wait and see for both single - side trading and arbitrage [142]. Natural Gas - It was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The trading strategy was to hold short positions on the HH second - quarter contract and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [145][146][147]. PX & PTA - Driven by cost. The trading strategy was to hold long positions, consider positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150]. BZ & EB - There was a supply vacuum in the overseas market. The trading strategy was to oscillate and consider reverse arbitrage [151][152]. Ethylene Glycol - There was obvious inventory - accumulation pressure. The trading strategy was to oscillate in a range and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [154][157]. Short - Staple Fiber - The polyester raw materials strengthened. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price, consider narrowing the processing fee on rallies, and wait and see for options [158]. Bottle Chips - The supply was expected to be tight. The trading strategy was to be bullish on the price and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [160][162]. Propylene - The supply - demand support was acceptable. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [163]. Plastic PP - The L plastic was bullish on the trend, and the PP was to wait and see. The trading strategy was to go long on the L 2605 contract on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [165][166]. Caustic Soda - The price was weakening. The trading strategy was to wait and see [168][169]. PVC - It was mainly in oscillations. The trading strategy was to go long on dips and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [170][173]. Soda Ash - The price was bullish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bullish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175]. Glass - The price was bearish on the trend. The trading strategy was to be bearish in the short - term, consider a long - soda - ash short - glass arbitrage, and wait and see for options [176][178]. Methanol - It was in a strong - oscillation state. The trading strategy was to go long on dips, consider a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and sell put options on corrections [179][180]. Urea - It was rising strongly. The trading strategy was to go long cautiously and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [182][183]. Pulp - The US dollar quotation increased, but the high inventory suppressed the rebound. The trading strategy was to hold long positions and consider option strategies [184][185][187]. Offset Printing Paper - The inventory was high, and the market rebound was limited. The trading strategy was to short on rallies and consider option strategies [188][189]. Logs - The supply and demand were both weak. The trading strategy was to wait and see and consider a 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage [190][192][193]. Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - The gross profit of concentrated latex decreased for consecutive months. The trading strategy was to go long on the RU 05 contract and consider arbitrage strategies [194][196][197]. Butadiene Rubber - The growth rate of butadiene production slowed down. The trading strategy was to short the BR 04 contract lightly and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [198][200][201].

摘要 【行情复盘】春节后首日化工及股市大幅高开，受此提振，橡胶期 价增仓再度挑战前高，假期橡胶海外现货稳中偏强，产地停割对胶 价形成支撑。宏观美国2025年四季度美国GDP增速环比折年率1.4 %，远低于市场预计的2.5%，也低于三季度的修正值4.4%；美国个 人消费支出（PCE）物价指数上涨2.9%，高于前值的2.8%; 美国1 月核心CPI年率如期降至2.5%，创近5年来新低, 从通胀结构来看， 超级核心服务通胀环比增速录得1年以来新高，核心商品本次环比 反弹力度料更大；相对而言现阶段经济的关注高于通胀，降息预期 有所抬升。另一端，美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有 限的军事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格大幅高 开，原油带动合成橡胶出现高开，但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘 情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注 中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况。 农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资 ...