Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].