2026.01.05-01.09 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至1月4日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力显示出较强的偏空情绪。 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 工业硅震荡运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅2605合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 本周策略建议 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry is a bullish and volatile trend, suggesting holding long positions in the medium term and waiting for price increases [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the electrolytic aluminum market is a bullish and volatile trend in the short - to - medium term. Macro - sentiment is the main driving factor. Supply constraints are expected due to technological upgrades in Xinjiang and power rationing during the dry season in Yunnan in January. Although demand in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors is growing, the off - season pressure remains, and the market is mainly driven by rigid demand replenishment [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: After the Guinean presidential election on December 28, 2025, the mining industry is expected to focus on "clearing inventory and optimizing structure". The cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to ports is between $20 - 45 per ton, and the CIF average price in 2026 is expected to range from $58 - 68 per ton [8] - **Alumina Market**: As of December 26, 2025, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 94.4 million tons, with a utilization rate of about 85.14%. In 2026, new domestic alumina production capacity will be about 14.4 million tons per year, mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. The market may experience a cycle of "shortage - re - surplus" in 2026 [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In November 2025, China's domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.9165 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6393 million tons. The global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to disappear in 2026 [8] - **Imports and Exports**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan per ton. In November 2025, China exported 570,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8%. The cumulative export from January to November was 5.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [8] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 612,000 tons, up about 4% from last week and about 29% from the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods is 125,400 tons, up about 7% from last week and about 20% from last year. LME aluminum inventory is at a low level in recent years [9] - **Profits**: The average full - cost of the China alumina industry in the past month is about 2,780 yuan per ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan per ton. The theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum production is about 5,000 yuan per ton [9] - **Market Expectations**: The positive macro - sentiment dominates, but the fundamental pressure restricts the continuous rise of aluminum prices. It is expected that the spot aluminum price will rise slightly and then return to range - bound trading next week, with an average weekly price of about 21,850 yuan per ton [9] Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea decreased by 4.35% week - on - week, and the price of alumina in Henan decreased by 2.36% week - on - week. The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased by 0.99% week - on - week [10] Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased slightly, and the inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the LME aluminum inventory remained stable at a low level [11][14][15] Supply - Demand Situation - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 60.8% this week. Affected by factors such as weak orders, environmental protection control, and high aluminum prices, the off - season characteristics are more obvious, and the operating rate may continue to decline in the short term [22] Futures - Spot Structure - The Shanghai aluminum futures show a positive market structure with higher prices for distant contracts. The output of electrolytic aluminum plants can be smoothly transferred to the middle and lower reaches [27] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,810 yuan per ton, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34] Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of funds is at a high level since 2018, and overseas funds are still dominated by bulls, but the high floating - profit positions of bulls may lead to repeated high - level market conditions [36] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main force has turned to a net short position this week. The main funds are still cautious about the recent price increase [39]

2025.12.15-12.19 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡，12月底或高位震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 供应刚性+需求韧性且前景乐观+库存历史偏低水平+美联储降息周期，中长 期仍看多，不过年底铝土矿供应宽裕及需求淡季限制高度。 2 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 中线行情分析 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 上周策略回顾 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第2周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚顺达矿业将于几内亚时间12月13日正式恢复发运，几内亚供应端增量释放 | | | 逐渐落地,国内进口矿供应量届时将会显著增加。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止12月12日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9610万吨（上周9650万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.11%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约1440万吨/年，主要集中在明年上半年 | | | 投产且重点分布在西南以及北方沿海区域，当前现货库存高企以及明年一季度新投产能的投产，氧化 | | ...

格隆汇12月11日丨电投能源(002128.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司暂未开展电解铝期货交易。 ...

格隆汇12月11日丨电投能源(002128.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司暂未开展电解铝期货交易。 ...

2025.12.8-12.12 电解铝 期货品种周报 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 上周策略回顾 短线多单建议离场观望，中期多单继续持有。 本周策略建议 持有足量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 下周美联储12月降息落地后市场或有小幅修正，但在全球供应严重缺乏弹性 +储能金属题材预期+历史低位库存+历史低位的铝铜比价等因素支撑下，铝 价偏强格局预计延续。 2 【总体观点】 | | 2025年12月第1周 | | --- | --- | | | 根据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后 | | 铝土矿市场 | 续总体供应稳中有增。本周由于氧化铝亏损加重，采购迟疑导致进口矿价格有所回落，不过据钢联 | | | 调研，12月份待售现货全部售出海漂现货市场较为收紧。 | | | 截止12月6日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9650万吨（上周9740万吨），产能利 | | | 用率约86.2%，据Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约144 ...

12.12 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 2025.12.08- 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间运行。 中线趋势判断 1 预计工业硅2601合约运行区间在8500—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，观望为主。 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至12月5日新疆地区421#价格9200元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力偏多态度较为明显。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，LM ...

经济观察报记者王雅洁 新湖期货在12月5日的早评中确认，夜盘价格已在"突破现金成本后继续下跌"。国投安信期货同日指 出，当前仅山西、河南部分低成本产能尚有一些利润，在形成规模减产前，市场将维持弱势并继续探 底。 与氧化铝的疲软形成对比的，是下游电解铝期货价格的强势。沪铝主力合约在宏观情绪改善和铜价带动 下收涨于22,235元/吨。 市场的天平之所以倾斜，源于一系列现实压力。 2025年12月5日凌晨，氧化铝期货主力合约在夜盘交易中收于2590元/吨，跌破了2600元/吨整数关口， 刷新上市以来新低。 期货市场夜盘的这根长阴线，击穿了国内多数氧化铝生产商的现金生产成本线。短短数月前，市场还因 反内卷政策预期一度躁动，如今却不得不直面过剩现实。 在新疆交割库接近满额、后续大量仓单即将到期的压力下，氧化铝产能明显过剩，期货与跌破2800元/ 吨的现货市场形成双杀。 所谓"双杀"，是指期货价格与现货价格同步大幅下跌，使得无论是持有期货头寸还是现货实物的市场参 与者普遍面临亏损的局面。 行业共识正在形成：除非出现"检修企业达到一定量级"的实质性减产，否则市场的跌势难以扭转。 破位下行 2025年12月5日的夜盘，成了压 ...

2025.12.1-12.5 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 波动加大，轻仓持多为宜。 本周策略建议 趋势判断逻辑 12月初美联储降息预期升温、俄乌停战协议再生变故等因素推动铝价止跌回 升，考虑同时近日市场关于海外铜资源高度集中引发资金追逐的担忧及铝铜 比较处于历史低位。 2 持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周主力2601合约看21000-21700区间。 适量增持库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年11月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 今年铝土矿累计进口量增速高于氧化铝今年累计产量的增速，目前铝土矿市场处于供过于求的状态，根 | | | 据Mysteel调研，几内亚停产矿山的复产流程正在稳步推进，另外新矿山的发运计划进展顺利，后续总体 | | | 供应稳中有增。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止11月28日，国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨，运行产能约9740万吨，产能利用率约86.06%，据 | | | Mysteel调研统计，2026年氧化铝新投产能约1440万吨/年，主要集中在明年上半 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - **Alumina**: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - **Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - **Aluminum Processing Enterprises**: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - **Real Estate Market**: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - **New Energy Sector**: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - **Home Appliance Market**: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - **Exchange Inventories**: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - **Social Inventories**: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - **Copper - Aluminum Ratio**: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]