电解铝期货

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电解铝期货品种周报-20250825
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:38
2025.8.25-8.29 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 大区间震荡,9月上旬偏强对待。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 9月美联储降息为高高概率事件,国内即将进入传统消费旺季,下游开工率回 升。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 特朗普再度挥舞关税大棒,短期波动可能加剧,观望为宜。 保持适当库存即可。 【总体观点】 | | 2025年8月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 近期山西和河南两地受安监及环保督察等因素开采受限,部分矿山暂停生产,贵州铝土矿增量明显, | | | 国产矿7月产量环比上行。几内亚政府NMC国有矿业公司,接管GAC的采矿权,后续预计进口矿供应持稳 | | | 运行,7月铝土矿进口环比增加,进口矿价环比上行,国内铝土矿库存已补至同期最高位,从原料平衡 | | | 来看铝土矿供应基本可以满足年内生产所需。不过9月份几内亚政局仍存在一定不确定,铝土矿上下空 | | | 间目前来看可能不大。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止8月22日,国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨,运行产能约9630万吨,产能利用率约85 ...
招商期货商品期货早班车-20250821
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250818
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].
中国首个再生金属衍生品(铸造铝合金期货和期权)上市的战略意义|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-08-15 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal derivatives, specifically casting aluminum alloy futures and options, marks a significant advancement in China's green finance market, providing a new perspective for risk management and supporting the development of the circular economy [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Launch of Recycled Metal Derivatives - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially listed casting aluminum alloy futures and options, filling a gap in the domestic futures market for recycled metals [2][5]. - On the first trading day, the main contract closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase from the listing price, with a total trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.01 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy, primarily made from scrap aluminum, is a key pathway for low-carbon transition, with energy consumption only 3%-5% of that of traditional electrolytic aluminum production [6]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are approximately 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, saving 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water [6]. - China's recycled aluminum production is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024 and reach over 18 million tons by 2030, with the new derivatives promoting standardized development in the industry [6]. Complete Aluminum Industry Chain - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options completes the risk hedging system for the aluminum industry, covering the entire supply chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [7]. - Companies can now use these derivatives to manage risks associated with raw material costs and product price fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the entire aluminum industry chain [7]. Green Finance and Risk Management - The emergence of casting aluminum alloy derivatives signifies a new phase in green finance, moving beyond traditional credit and bond products to include market-based pricing and risk hedging mechanisms [8][10]. - These derivatives allow companies to lock in costs for recycled materials and manage price volatility, thus enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the low-carbon economy [8][10]. Innovation in Green Financial Products - The derivatives market introduces innovative functions for green finance, transitioning from single financing tools to comprehensive risk management platforms [11]. - The development of structured financial products that combine futures with green indicators, such as carbon emissions and recycling rates, is encouraged [16]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to expand their green finance product offerings and enhance competitive differentiation, particularly in the carbon market, where China's trading volume is significantly lower than that of the EU [16][18]. - Collaboration between banks and futures exchanges is essential to create a comprehensive risk management system that supports the green transition of the real economy [15][18].
氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金近期价格区间预测
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 12:09
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].
商品期货早班车-20250813
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and
工业硅、碳酸锂期货品种周报-20250811
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 05:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan. It's recommended to consider grid trading within the range [6][7][10]. - Lithium carbonate futures are also in a large - range oscillatory operation. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan. It's recommended to buy a small amount when the price retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly. As of August 8, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,900 yuan/ton, 10,000 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,100 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price is in a downward channel, and the long - position camp of the main force has a slight advantage. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 7,700 - 10,000 yuan [6][7]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range. - This week's strategy: Consider grid trading within the range [10]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12][17]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1. Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillatory operation. Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate showed mixed trends. As of August 8, the mainstream price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,950 yuan/ton. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report shows that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main force shows a strong bullish sentiment. The 2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 63,000 - 80,000 yuan [32][33]. 3.2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range. - This week's strategy: Buy a small amount when the price of lithium carbonate retraces to the 63,000 - 65,000 yuan range [36][37]. 3.3. Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40][42].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250811
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 04:07
2025.8.11-8.15 电解铝 期货品种周报 20000元下方可以考虑中线布局多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 中线行情分析 大区间震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 短期无新刺激政策,投资者风险偏好下降,资金撤离工业品板块,铝价波动 弹性收窄,而现实为库存累积、消费淡季等偏空因素,短期价格偏承压整理, 但8月是淡旺季交替区,加上近期美国制造指数出现回落,降息预期再度升温, 加上国内托底政策,8月或先弱后强。 2 8月或先弱后强。未来一周,沪铝2509合约区间看20300- 20900,暂短线交易为宜。 n 本周策略建议 8月下旬价格仍偏强对待,但当前成本端偏弱+社库持续累库, 暂难以支撑大的单边行情,未来一周,沪铝2509合约区间看 20500-21000。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 可考虑适量逢低配置期货虚拟库存。 【总体观点】 | | 2025年8月第2周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 国产铝土矿基本面未见过剩,北方地区矿价预计持稳为主,西南地区铝土矿价格存上涨的趋势,受几内 | | | 亚雨季影响8月铝土矿供应有趋紧态势,但前期进口增量显著港口库 ...
商品期货早班车-20250807
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 04:39
2025年08月07日 星期四 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现:周三贵金属震荡,以伦敦金计价的国际金价跌 0.33%,收于 3369 美元/盎司,以伦敦银计价的国 际银价涨 0.05%,收于 37.835 美元/盎司。 基本面:特朗普拟对芯片产品征 100%关税;特朗普下令对印度额外加征 25%关税之 50%;美日贸易协议分 歧持续,美国计划现有关税基础上加征 15%关税;美联储理事库克称 7 月份的就业报告"令人担忧",暗示近 期降息;10 年期美债拍卖意外疲软,收益率创日当日新高。国内黄金 ETF 资金重新流入,COMEX 黄金库存 1206 吨,增加 2 吨;上期所黄金库存 36 吨,维持不变;伦敦 6 月黄金库存 8774 吨;上期所白银库存 1161 吨,增加 5 吨,金交所白银库存上周库存 1368 吨,基本维持不变吨,COMEX 白银库存 15757 吨,减少 1 吨;伦敦 6 月白银库存增加 421 吨至 23788 吨;印度 6 月白银进口约 200 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 15112 吨,增加 67.8 吨。 交易策略:去美元化逻辑未变,建议黄金做多;工业 ...
商品期货早班车-20250806
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].