2026.03.02-03.06 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡偏弱运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至2月28日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力多头阵营略占优势。 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 工业硅震荡运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 上周策略回顾 本周策略建议 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 LME库存与注销仓 ...

2026.02.24-02.27 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 工业硅期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 工业硅期货目前处于震荡偏弱运行。 中线趋势判断 1 01 P A R T 中线行情分析 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至2月13日新疆地区421#价格9050元/吨，云 南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货AI 智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面，主 力没有明显的多空偏向。 工业硅震荡运行，观望为主。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 春节假期临近，为规避长假期间波动风险，建议观 望为主。 本周策略建议 工业硅主力合约8,000–9,500元/吨区间震荡。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 LME库存与注 ...

电解铝 期货品种周报 2026.2.24-2.27 中线行情分析 中期震荡偏强格局，3月中旬前或高位宽幅震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 3月补库启动+旺季需求+供应偏紧，市场或偏强运行，不过期间美伊地缘局 势、美联储利息政策预期变化及关税波动成为扰动市场的重要因素，期间电 解铝低位预计约22000-22500，高位约24000-25000。 2 适当保持库存。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 轻仓多单或清仓过节。 上周策略回顾 中期多单继续持有，新多仓可考虑23000以下适量布局。 本周策略建议 国内铝产业重要环节利润情况： 最近一个月国内氧化铝行业完全成本约2680/吨，理论现货亏损约50元/吨，期货 主力盈利约160元/吨，氧化铝理论进口盈利约-50元/吨，上周理论盈利-50元/吨；电解铝生产成本约16600元/吨， 上周约16600元/吨，理论利润约6600元/吨（上周约6500元/吨）；电解铝理论进口亏损约2400元/吨，上周亏损约 2000元/吨。 持有适量现货库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2026年2月第1周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 整体呈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has high volatility. Gold is recommended to reduce long - positions and wait and see in the short term, while the long - term outlook remains positive. Silver is in short supply in the spot market, but the market sentiment is fragile, so it is recommended to participate with caution [1]. - For basic metals, the prices of electrolytic aluminum, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be volatile in the short term. Alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile in the 45000 - 53000 yuan range [2][3]. - In the black industry, the prices of rebar, iron ore, and coking coal are expected to be widely volatile in the short term, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are strong in the US, while domestic soybeans are weaker than the international market. Corn, palm oil, and cotton are expected to be volatile. Egg and hog futures prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, the prices of LLDPE, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the medium - term outlook is improved. PTA is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is improved. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation in the medium term, and short - selling positions should be held. Crude oil trading is mainly affected by Iranian geopolitical risks, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04. Benzene and styrene are expected to be widely volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on benzene and styrene in the second quarter. Soda ash is recommended to wait and see [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Market performance: On the night of February 9th (Monday), precious metals strengthened across the board, with Shanghai silver leading the rise by nearly 5%, and gold also rising. The linkage between domestic and foreign markets was strong [1]. - Fundamentals: Some Fed officials made statements. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed, and ETF holdings also changed. India's silver imports in some months were reported [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, reduce long - positions and wait and see in the short term, and remain bullish in the long term. For silver, participate with caution due to market sentiment [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.97% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 325 yuan/ton. The LME price was 3087 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand characteristics [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.56% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 231 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the marginal reduction in supply [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 0.59%. The trading volume and capital increased [2]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy start - up rate is stable [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile between 8200 - 8800 yuan. If the large - scale production reduction is short - term, consider short - selling at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2605 closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. The production of lithium salt decreased, and the production of downstream materials was expected to decline. The inventory was in a tight balance in Q1, and the total inventory days increased [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile, easy to rise and difficult to fall, supported by strong demand expectations [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 49370 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.17%. The trading volume and capital increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was flat, and the industry inventory was stable. The production of silicon wafers in February was stable, while the production of cells and components decreased. The photovoltaic export policy provided some support [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile between 45000 - 53000 yuan [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory increased, the demand for building materials was weak, and the supply decreased year - on - year. The demand for plates was stable, and the inventory was high but the marginal change was strong. Steel mills were in losses, and the production increase was limited [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of RB05 being 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 764 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased, the iron ore supply - demand was neutral, the iron - water production increased slightly, and the coke price increase plan was on hold. The furnace - charge replenishment was nearly over, and the inventory days increased. The structural contradiction of port iron ore remained [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of I05 being 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water production increased, the steel mill profit was poor, and the first - round price increase of coking coal was implemented with no further plan. The inventory was divided among different links, and the 05 contract was at a premium to the spot [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of JM05 being 1100 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America. The demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectation increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the USDA report in the short term and China's purchase of US soybeans and South American production in the medium term. The domestic market is weaker than the international market, with a unilateral shock to find the bottom and a reverse - spread structure [6]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was mostly stable [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress was over 60%, and the selling pressure was not large. The selling sentiment in the Northeast increased before the Spring Festival, and the downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The trading was expected to be light, and the price was expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile as the trading becomes light [6]. Fats and Oils - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: The estimated production in Malaysia in January decreased by 12% month - on - month, and the export increased by 18% month - on - month. The market expected the inventory at the end of January to decrease by 4.6% to 291 [6]. - Trading strategy: The unilateral trend of fats and oils is at a critical point. The resonance of weak seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectation is weakened, with a reverse - spread structure. Pay attention to the MPOB report [6]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price rebounded, and the international crude oil price continued to rise. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price entered a shock adjustment [6]. - Fundamentals: The un - priced sales contracts of US cotton decreased, and the Australian cotton export decreased in December. The spinning mill start - up rate decreased, and the new order growth slowed down [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the price range of 14500 - 14900 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, the chick - replenishment was active, and the demand was weakening. The egg price was expected to decline seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price continued to fall [7]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased during the Spring Festival preparation but was expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in North China was 6570 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure slowed down due to new device commissioning and some device shutdowns. The import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was weakening [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium term, buy at low prices as the supply - demand pattern improves [8]. PVC - Market performance: The V05 contract closed at 4992, a 0.2% increase [8]. - Fundamentals: The PVC price rebounded due to macro - support. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The social inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy the 09 contract and sell the 01 contract for a positive spread [8]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 902 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large [9]. - Trading strategy: In the medium term, maintain the long - position view on PX and look for buying opportunities. For PTA, take profit appropriately as the processing fee is high [9]. Glass - Market performance: The fg05 contract closed at 1079, a 0.6% increase [9]. - Fundamentals: The glass price was stable, and the trading was light. The supply decreased, and the inventory was high. The downstream demand was weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly. The East China spot price was 6570 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased slightly, and the demand decreased due to the downstream holiday [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand pattern improves slightly, and short - sell at high prices [9]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 3675 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased due to the restart of oil - based devices, and the import decreased. The inventory in some ports in East China increased, and the polyester load decreased [9]. - Trading strategy: Hold short - selling positions as the medium - term supply - demand inventory accumulation remains [9]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price rose due to the Iran - US negotiation uncertainty [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased in January due to multiple factors, and the US - Iran negotiation is the core. The medium - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - Trading strategy: Buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 due to high geopolitical risks [9]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract fell slightly. The East China spot price was 7560 yuan/ton, and the overseas price rose slightly. The import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was at a normal - high level, and the benzene - styrene inventory was at a normal - low level. The demand was weak due to the downstream holiday [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be widely volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, go long on benzene and styrene or do a pure - benzene reverse - spread [10]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa05 contract closed at 1182, a 1% decrease [10]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash price was at the bottom, the supply was large, and the inventory increased slightly. The downstream demand was weak [10]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: February 2 - 6, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently oscillating. As of January 30, the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9050 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a clear bearish attitude [8]. - Mid - term Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18][21][26] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently on an upward trend. As of January 30, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,600 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures are in a strong upward phase, and the main force has a strong bullish sentiment [34][35]. - Mid - term Strategy: Due to the large price fluctuations, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The bottom of lithium carbonate was rising, and the main contract should focus on the support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan [38]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of lithium carbonate has support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan. This week, focus on whether the closing price breaks the support range and adopt a wait - and - see approach [39]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short-term gains and deal with the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work progress after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high-level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [5][12]. - It is expected that in early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish expectations, the lack of incremental holiday demand, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, attention should be paid to changes in U.S. bond sentiment, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines. It is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, with the start of restocking, peak-season demand, and tight supply, the market may operate strongly. During this period, the low level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high level around 25,500 - 26,500 [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, it needs to digest short-term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the focus will be on the resumption of work after the festival [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high and maintain an appropriate inventory [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: No specific content provided. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The supply of Guinea's bauxite is growing steadily, and the volume of goods shipped to China globally is increasing. The price of imported ore in February is expected to remain under pressure, and the imported ore market is gradually moving towards a state of oversupply [10]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry's supply surplus pattern continues. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading time before and after the festival is short. Coupled with the increasing scale of maintenance and production reduction in the alumina industry, the price of the alumina market in February is expected to remain stagnant [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, and the daily output is continuously increasing. It is expected that the production will continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to be very small [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,600 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the social inventory of aluminum was about 800,000 tons, up about 0.5% from last week and about 61% higher than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods was 245,000 tons, up about 11% from last week and about 110% higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 2%, about 16% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [10]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 7,900 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short - term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high - level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [12]. - **Our View**: In early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure. In the middle and late February, it is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, the market may operate strongly [12]. - **Key Concerns**: Fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the evolution of the U.S. - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite ores have been accelerating their decline since January. The prices of alumina spot continued to be under pressure for adjustment, while the futures prices rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new stage high this week but declined significantly at the end of the month due to macro and pre - holiday off - season factors [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite decreased slightly this week, but the arrival volume of Chinese bauxite in February is still expected to be significant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum and the inventory of aluminum rods continued to increase, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss and a theoretical profit for the futures main contract. The electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased slightly, and the profit has increased. The electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical import loss [18]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate this week was 59.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up rate of each aluminum processing sector will be generally under pressure in February [23]. Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The pattern of "off - season demand + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 1,830 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years, having a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall trend of more long positions and fewer short positions. Currently, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating profit positions are relatively heavy, prone to high - level repeated market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force increased slightly this week. The reduction of long positions by institutions was greater than that of short positions. The net long position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises first increased and then decreased. Overall, the main funds are relatively bearish on the short - term market [39].

铝月报（2026年1月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2026-1-30 目录 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 1月氧化铝、电解铝、铝合金期价走势分化 1月份氧化铝期货价格呈现探底回升走势；1月份电解铝、铝合金期货价格呈现走势偏强的格局。 宏观面：美国就业市场弱平衡，通胀表现温和，1月份美联储按兵不动，但货币政策宽松预期不改，地缘潜在风险升 级 全球铝溢价传导加剧；国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有 一定的空间。 氧化铝：铝土矿价格继续下跌，氧化铝成本因此下降，随着几内亚雨季结束，进口矿价格仍存在下跌预期。氧化铝部 分炼厂出现减产，供应压力稍有缓解，提振期价上涨，不过，目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 目前供应过剩格局未改，氧化铝难以摆脱弱势。 电解铝：供应端目前电解铝运行产能变化有限，后期有增产预期。进入季节性淡季后，需求表现趋弱，且春节临近、 铝价高企或抑制下游拿货积极性，下游企业的提前退市将接踵而来，不过，光伏抢出口带动需 ...

Report Summary for the Week of January 26 - 30, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and may experience high - level oscillations before the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Although there are negative feedbacks from downstream due to high prices and a reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January, the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The expected operating range of the spot aluminum price in January is 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply - demand situation is weakening, but macro - drivers are strong. Near the Spring Festival in late January, high prices lead to increased negative feedback from downstream, and the reduced probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut at the end of January may disrupt the market. However, considering the mid - term supply - demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum market and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions and wait for the price to rise [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while mid - term long positions should be continued to hold. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Not elaborated in detail, but the overall strategy is related to holding positions and inventory management [8]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Based on CRU data, the cost of transporting Guinean bauxite to Guinean ports is mainly between $20 - 45 per ton. The expected CIF average price of Guinean bauxite in 2026 is $58 - 68 per ton. Domestic ore supply has no expectation of resumption of mining and production release, and may continue to tighten. The supply of Guinean alumina is growing steadily, and the imported ore price in February is expected to be under pressure [9]. - **Alumina Market**: Affected by environmental control and operating pressure, some alumina enterprises in the north carried out maintenance, and the industry's operating rate declined. The weekly output decreased by 39,000 tons to 1.671 million tons. The overall supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance and the recovery progress of previous maintenance [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December, the domestic built - in capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 44.6893 million tons, showing a slight increase. However, the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio was about 71.44%. The daily output of domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects is increasing, and the output is expected to continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to almost disappear [9]. - **Import and Export**: The current theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,400 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In December, the export volume was 545,000 tons, still at a high level in recent years [9]. - **Inventory**: As of January 22, the aluminum ingot inventory was 743,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from January 19, the first de - stocking since January; the aluminum bar inventory was 222,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from January 19, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The LME aluminum inventory increased by about 4% compared with last week, and was about 20% lower than the same period last year, still at a low level in recent years [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about - 70 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main contract was about 0 yuan/ton. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: Macro - sentiment dominates. The Fed's decision is expected to be neutral to bearish, but the strong performance of gold and silver limits the callback space. The pressure of inventory accumulation and the short - term decline in inventory create a game, and the futures price is expected to rise first and then fall [10]. - **Key Concerns**: Changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation in January; the evolution of the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran; whether the bauxite price drops unexpectedly [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Most prices of bauxite, alumina, and related raw materials have changed. For example, the price of Guinean bauxite SI2 - 3% decreased by 1.59% week - on - week, and the price of Henan - grade alumina decreased by 0.29% week - on - week. The price of domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased by 0.21% week - on - week, while the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 1.53% week - on - week [11]. - Imported aluminum ore is still under pressure, coal prices have declined, and alumina prices have stabilized, but the bearish atmosphere is still strong [11]. Supply - demand Situation - The profit situation of important links in the domestic aluminum industry is as follows: the alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss of about 70 yuan/ton and a theoretical import loss of about 50 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 16,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 7,500 yuan/ton, with a theoretical import loss of about 2,050 yuan/ton [14]. Futures - spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure of higher prices in the far - term and lower prices in the near - term. The pattern of "increased supply arrivals + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The current price is mainly guided by the macro and expectations, and the spot side is a drag [21]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,750 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,790 yuan/ton before the festival. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [28][29]. Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds has continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long floating - profit positions are relatively heavy, and high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [31]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force first decreased and then increased this week, remaining stable compared with last week. Both the long and short camps have increased their positions. The net short position of institutional positions mainly for speculation remains stable, and the net long position of funds from the background of mid - downstream enterprises has continued to decrease slightly. The main funds are still cautious about the short - term market, and the short - term may be in high - level consolidation [34].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜内外铜价震荡偏强，国内精炼铜现货进口持续亏损状态。宏观方面，美国Q3实际GDP季环比终值 小幅上修至4.4%，创两年来最快增速，核心PCE通胀保持在2.9%；美11月PCE物价指数同比2.8%，环比 涨0.2%，均符合预期，通胀预期稳定，消费支出稳健。国内方面，央行行长表示灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种货币政策工具，今年降准降息还有一定的空间。库存方面，LME库存增加8850吨至168250 吨；Comex库存增加4031吨至507437吨；SHFE铜仓单下降2408吨至143173吨，BC铜下降75吨至10685 吨。此前提到，当前国内铜需求进入淡季，累库力度强于近两年，这加大了产业内的分歧，单从产业现 状和基本面来去看也存在调整的需求。但从贵金属板块表现来看，资金情绪依然高涨是较强的支撑因 素，对铜或有一定溢出效应。短期市场不确定性较高，春节前宜谨慎看待，但中期铜价上行趋势依然不 会改变，注重操作节奏。 镍&不锈钢： （朱希，从业资格号：F03109968； ...

2026年01月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 招商评论 铝 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.86%，收于 24155 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-295 元/吨， LME 价格 3135 美元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 交易策略：消费端淡季特征显著，库存延续累积，供需矛盾叠加市场情绪趋于谨慎，铝价短期维持震荡调整。 风险提示：海外供应扰动、投机资金获利了结。 氧 化 铝 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.04%，收于 2672 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-35 元/吨。 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能维持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 交易策略：现货价格企稳，但远期供应过剩压力较大，叠加到期仓单集中注销，氧化铝盘面价格维持偏弱走 势。 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减产，反内卷政策刺激。 锌 市场表现：1 月 21 日日盘，锌、铅主力合约收于 24350 元/吨,17115 元/吨,较前一交易日收盘价分别-+60,-+110 元/克。国内 0 ...