1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. The current supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. In the short term, the aluminum price may have an oversold rebound, but the rebound space is limited. The mainstream operating range of the aluminum price next week is expected to be between 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton. The range of SHFE Aluminum 2605 is expected to be 23,700 - 24,500 [5][10]. - The new long positions are recommended to wait and see. For spot enterprises, it is recommended to hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [5][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The medium - to long - term is in a moderately strong shock pattern, with wide - range shocks in the near term. Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and global economic stagflation, the supply - demand factors of aluminum are mixed, lacking a single - sided driving force. The aluminum price may have an oversold rebound next week, but the rebound space may be limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see, and temporarily avoid new long positions [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Hold light long positions [8]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. 3.3 Overall Viewpoint - **Bauxite Market**: In the first quarter, Guinean mines have achieved full - production operation, and the supply is expected to remain high from April to June. However, Guinea plans to limit bauxite exports before early April to stabilize prices. The bauxite price of $60 may be the medium - to long - term bottom. Even if the export quota is implemented, the bauxite shipment from Guinea will not decline sharply in the short term [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 27, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,220 million tons, and the operating rate is 82.58%. The market supply - demand has changed from surplus to tight balance. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has disrupted the caustic soda supply, and Guinea's export control has led to market recovery [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In February, the domestic built - in production capacity was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons, approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity limit. Projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the process of production, and some idle production capacity in the Northeast may resume production on a small scale. Overseas, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on the global aluminum supply chain. Qatar Aluminum has cut production by 636,000 tons, and Bahrain Aluminum has declared force majeure. ANZ Bank estimates that about 8 - 10 million tons of production will be affected in 2026, and it is expected to return to normal production by 2028 [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,000 yuan/ton, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products has significantly declined from December 2025 to the end of February 2026 [9]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was about 1.371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 69%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has significantly decreased, and the warehouse shipment volume has significantly increased during the price decline. The inventory accumulation cycle may be coming to an end. The inventory of aluminum rods is 330,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 26%, still at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [9]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton (last week it was about 7,300 yuan/ton), at a historical high level [10]. - **Market Expectation**: The industry continues to improve, but the macro - guidance is weak. It is expected that the aluminum price will remain in the current range next week, with a mainstream operating range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton and an average price of about 23,700 yuan/ton [10]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite from Guinea and Australia have increased, while the price of domestic bauxite remains unchanged. The number of ship bookings by mines and traders has not significantly decreased. It is expected that the shipment volume in April will decrease, but the reduction is controllable. - The price of port thermal coal has shown a moderately strong shock trend this week. The market operation is relatively cautious. The current coal supply is at a high level, and the inventory days are higher than the safety line, so most power plants have no obvious pressure to replenish inventory. - The alumina price has risen and then fallen this week. The social inventory is still in the process of accumulation, and there is a large amount of inventory in the delivery warehouse. The upward price space is limited, and the lower limit is the cost line and the impact of overseas bauxite [11]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic bauxite supply is still in a relatively abundant state. The arrival volume in April may decrease, but the reduction is limited. - The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past 5 years. The in - plant inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased since March, while the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has continued to accumulate at a high level. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 2%, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, and the global visible inventory is at a low level in recent years, making the market highly sensitive [15]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about 140 yuan/ton, the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 270 yuan/ton, and the theoretical import loss of alumina is about 100 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,800 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 4,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased slightly by 1 percentage point to 62.9% this week. The production of aluminum profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The demand for canning materials, batteries and other related products has continued to pick up, but the orders for automobile sheets have been affected by the tax incentive phase - out. The demand for aluminum cables is at a peak level, and the order scheduling in April is expected to be good. The orders for battery foils and packaging foils are prominent. Overall, the downstream operating rate continues to rise, but the high aluminum price and macro - uncertainty still suppress the demand release elasticity [23]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure The current SHFE aluminum futures show a contango market structure, with general spot demand. However, the slope of the spot price has eased compared with last month, and the spot - end demand is better than that in February. In the short term, the price is continuously guided by the macro - factors [27]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,980 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,790 yuan/ton last week. The current spread is supportive of electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. - The spread between the ADC12 spot and the active month of the SHFE casting alloy is about 3,740 yuan/ton this week, compared with 4,040 yuan/ton last week. The basis of ADC12 is at a high level in recent years, and the shortage of alloy spot is obvious [38][40]. 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position has further shrunk, but it is still at a high level since 2018. Since January, the net long position of funds has generally shown a fluctuating decline. In the latest period, the reduction of the long - position camp is obvious, while the short - position camp generally remains inactive. The long - position still dominates, but the net long - power is weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short - position of the main contract has remained stable and has decreased during the recent price decline. This week, the electrolytic aluminum price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and both the long and short camps have continued to significantly reduce their positions. The main contract is currently in a net short - position. Institutions mainly for speculation show signs of turning from net short to net long. The funds from the mid - and downstream enterprises have turned to a slight net short - position. Overall, the main - force funds are inclined to a slight rebound in the short - term price [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of aluminum prices is still in a moderately strong oscillation pattern, but in the near term, there is wide - range oscillation and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out [4][9]. - The main logic of recent aluminum prices has shifted from the game between the lack of supply elasticity and the long - term demand expectations of artificial intelligence and new energy to the game between the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war and inventory accumulation plus weak actual demand. Considering the relatively heavy net long positions of overseas fund positions, the weak growth of US technology stocks, and the significant rebound of US bond yields (strengthening of the US dollar index), market oscillations may intensify in the near term [4][9]. - Demand support is limited, with both long and short factors coexisting in the macro - environment. It is expected that next week, the amplitude of aluminum prices will widen and the center of gravity will shift downward, with the mainstream operating range between 23,500 - 24,800 yuan/ton and an average price of about 24,400 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - **Aluminum Ore Market**: In the first quarter, Guinean mines reached full - capacity operation, and supply is expected to remain high from April to June. In mid - March, Guinea planned to control 2026 export volume within the scope of the feasibility study stipulated in the mining license to curb continuous price decline. The price of 60 US dollars per ton for aluminum ore may be the medium - to long - term bottom [8]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 20, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11,255 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 9,220 million tons (9,290 million tons before the Spring Festival) and an operating rate of 82.48%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose, but the recent escalation of the Middle East geopolitical war has disrupted caustic soda supply, and Guinean export controls have led to market recovery [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, in February, the domestic built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons (4,477.93 million tons last month), approaching the 4,500 million - ton production capacity red line. Projects such as the 1.4 - million - ton green and low - carbon energy - efficiency improvement project of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang and the 350,000 - ton green - electricity aluminum production capacity of the second phase of Inner Mongolia Zhalü are in the process of production, and production capacity will continue to be released this year. There is an expectation of small - scale resumption of production for some shut - down production capacity in the Northeast, and the rest of the production capacity is operating stably. The latest production capacity of Qatar's Qatalum aluminum plant has dropped to 60%, and Bahrain Aluminum has phased out about 19% of its total production capacity of 1.6 million tons due to shipping restrictions. Continued attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East situation and transportation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 3,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 4,300 yuan/ton last week, which is at a low level in recent years. According to customs data, from December 2025 to the end of February 2026, the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products in China dropped significantly [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 19, the social inventory of aluminum was about 1.357 million tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and about 59% higher than the same period last year. The weekly outbound volume continued to rise slightly but remained at a low level in recent years. Historically, the inflection point of social inventory usually occurs around late March. The inventory of aluminum rods was 361,000 tons, a decrease of about 3% from last week and about 30% higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the past 10 years. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 4%, about 12% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [8][13][14]. 3.2 Price Changes - **Aluminum Ore**: The price of aluminum ore SI2 - 3% from Guinea increased from 62 US dollars/ton last week to 65 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%. The price of aluminum ore SI9 - 11% from Australia remained at 54 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The price of aluminum ore SI4 - 6% from Indonesia remained at 69 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The price of aluminum ore AL58%A/S4.5 in Henan remained at 525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0% [10]. - **Alumina**: The price of first - grade alumina in Henan increased from 2,705 yuan/ton last week to 2,765 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.22% [10]. - **Other Products**: The price of动力煤 (Q5500平仓价) at Jingtang Port increased from 734 yuan/ton last week to 740 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.82%. The price of pre - baked anodes in Henan remained at 5,823 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The average price of cryolite remained at 7,730 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0%. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost increased from 16,687 yuan/ton last week to 16,791 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.63%. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased from 24,960 yuan/ton last week to 24,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.77%. The price of electrolytic aluminum A00 in Foshan decreased from 25,060 yuan/ton last week to 24,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.99%. The price of aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 in Guangdong decreased from 27,450 yuan/ton last week to 26,850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.19%. The price of aluminum rod 6063 in Foshan decreased from 23,380 yuan/ton last week to 22,830 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.35%. The price of scrap aluminum (crushed primary aluminum) in Guangzhou decreased from 12,450 yuan/ton last week to 11,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.63% [10]. 3.3 Inventory Changes - **Aluminum Ore**: The port inventory of imported aluminum ore decreased from 2.713 million tons last week to 2.65 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.33% [12]. - **Alumina**: The inventory of alumina in China (Steel Union data) increased from 577,000 tons last week to 583,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.11% [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in 7 cities increased from 1.31 million tons last week to 1.357 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. The inventory of aluminum rods (6063) decreased from 372,000 tons last week to 361,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.96%. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum (total) increased from 416,400 tons last week to 452,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.55%. The remaining available storage capacity of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum decreased from 568,100 tons last week to 525,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.55%. LME aluminum inventory decreased from 445,300 tons last week to 429,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50%. The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts decreased from 172,500 tons last week to 156,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.22% [12]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Profit**: In the past month, the average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry was about 2,650 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit was about 110 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the main futures contract was about 390 yuan/ton. The theoretical import profit of alumina was about 100 yuan/ton, compared with 30 yuan/ton last week, and the import window is open. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum was about 16,800 yuan/ton, compared with about 16,700 yuan/ton last week, and the theoretical profit was about 7,300 yuan/ton (about 8,400 yuan/ton last week). The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum was about 3,600 yuan/ton, compared with about 4,300 yuan/ton last week [16]. - **Downstream开工率**: The weekly开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9% week - on - week, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. The demand for ultra - high - voltage and overhead lines is strong, and enterprise production schedules have covered March. The aluminum foil market is stable, with the recovery of traditional peak - season demand and short - term support from battery foils. The orders for automobile plates have declined year - on - year, and exports to the Middle East have been suspended, hindering the increase in the开工率 of aluminum plates. The开工率 of aluminum profiles has increased significantly, mainly due to the return of employees and good acceptance of engineering orders, with support from photovoltaic and automobile profiles. The primary aluminum alloy market is highly wait - and - see. The terminal orders of recycled aluminum have not increased significantly [22]. 3.5 Market Structure - **期现结构**: The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. Spot demand is average, and macro - factors play a stronger guiding role [27]. - **价差结构**: This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 2,790 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,390 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the price difference between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current price difference has a supporting effect on electrolytic aluminum [32][33]. 3.6 Market Capital - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long positions of funds have decreased slightly. The long - position camp has remained inactive, while the short - position camp has continued to increase slightly. Currently, the long - position still dominates, but the net long - position strength is weakening, and price fluctuations are expected to be severe [35]. - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Electrolytic Aluminum**: During the decline of aluminum prices this week, both the long - and short - position camps have significantly reduced their positions, but the short - position camp has reduced its positions more. Institutions mainly engaged in speculation have reduced their net short - positions. The funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises have maintained a small net long - position. Overall, the main funds do not seem to be determined about a further significant decline in short - term prices [38]. 3.7 Trading Strategies - **Mid - term Strategy**: Hold existing mid - term long positions, and new long positions are advised to wait and see [4][7]. - **Spot Enterprise Hedging**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation trends, and Fed's monetary policy stance. Different commodity markets show diverse performance and trends, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market Performance: International gold prices denominated in London Gold fell 3.86% to $4,813.533 per ounce. Domestic gold also declined, with the 9999 gold on the Gold Exchange down 2.64% to 1,111.89 and the Shanghai Gold main contract on the SHFE down 2.21% to 1,113.52 yuan per gram. International silver prices dropped 5.04% to $75.305 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected. Powell's statements were in line with market expectations. Tensions in the Middle East escalated due to Iran's missile attacks. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 0.3 tons, while some gold and silver inventories increased or decreased [1]. - Trading Strategy: With escalating Middle - East tensions and potential inflation, and a dovish stance from Powell, it is recommended to reduce long positions in gold. A bearish view is maintained on silver [1]. Base Metals - **Aluminum** - Market Performance: The main electrolytic aluminum contract fell 0.76% to 24,800 yuan per ton. The LME price was $3,345 per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate rose slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Tight overseas supply expectations support the price, but domestic inventory accumulation and a strong dollar suppress it. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina** - Market Performance: The main alumina contract fell 0.81% to 3,048 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Alumina operating capacity increased steadily, and electrolytic aluminum smelters maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Policy restrictions on bauxite exports and stronger cost support may drive the price up. The short - term price may be volatile and bullish, and attention should be paid to Guinea's mining policies [2]. - **Zinc and Lead** - Market Performance: On March 18, the main zinc and lead contracts closed at 23,325 yuan per ton and 16,645 yuan per ton respectively, with changes of - 375 yuan and + 45 yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: The lead market has a mixed fundamental situation. The zinc market has high supply but slow consumption recovery, showing a weak domestic and strong overseas pattern [3]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see for zinc and lead, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for zinc [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8,375 yuan per ton, down 185 yuan or 2.16%. The trading volume and open interest increased [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and social inventory shows a slight decline. Demand in related industries is improving [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is affected by macro - events, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8,100 and 8,900 [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 150,120 yuan per ton, down 3.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand in related industries is also rising. Inventory is expected to decline in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to maintain a tight balance in April. The price is supported at the 150,000 - yuan level, and the market is waiting for a rebound [3]. - **Polysilicon** - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 40,105 yuan per ton, down 3.76%. Trading volume and open interest increased slightly [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and inventory rose. Downstream product prices declined slowly, and production schedules in related industries improved [3]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to downstream procurement and order price changes, and the price is expected to test the 40,000 - yuan resistance level [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 3,137 yuan per ton, down 22 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Building material inventory increased, and the market's supply - demand situation is short - term weak. Steel mill profits are poor, and production growth is limited [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and hold short positions with caution. The reference range is 3,100 - 3,160 [4]. - **Iron Ore** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 805 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply from Australia and Brazil increased, and iron - making production decreased. The market is in a slightly weak supply - demand situation, and there are some structural contradictions [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and the reference range is 790 - 820 [4]. - **Coking Coal** - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract closed at 1,175 yuan per ton, down 10.5 yuan from the previous night's session [4]. - Fundamentals: Iron - making production decreased, and there is a game over coke price cuts. Supply at ports is high, and overall inventory is neutral. Futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and consider closing short positions. The reference range is 1,150 - 1,210 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [5]. - Fundamentals: There is a global supply surplus expectation, and Brazil's harvest is over half. US soybean crushing is strong, and exports are seasonal. The overall global supply - demand is expected to be loose [5]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term driver of US soybeans lies in crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil and US soybean demand fulfillment. The domestic market follows the US market, and the basis is strong [5]. - **Corn** - Market Performance: Corn futures prices fell slightly, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress is over 70%, but the progress is slow. Port and downstream inventories are low, and the spot price in the production area is weakening [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the loosening of the production area price [6]. - **Edible Oils** - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil fell yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to enter a seasonal increase, and exports from Malaysia from March 1 - 15 increased by 43% [6]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term driver of edible oils follows crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil and production in the production areas [6]. - **Sugar** - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract closed at 5,398 yuan per ton, up 0.39% [6]. - Fundamentals: High international oil prices may lead to a reduction in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the market is affected by macro - funds and policies [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Cotton** - Market Performance: ICE US cotton futures closed flat overnight, and international crude oil prices rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Attention is paid to the climate change in US cotton production areas. Domestic cotton imports decreased in February. The domestic - international cotton price gap is narrowing [6]. - Trading Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see, and the reference price range is 15,100 - 15,600 yuan per ton [6]. - **Eggs** - Market Performance: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable [6]. - Fundamentals: Rainy weather affects egg storage, and the market sentiment is cautious. Supply is sufficient, and it is a seasonal off - peak demand period [6]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Hogs** - Market Performance: Hog futures prices continued to weaken, and spot prices fell slightly [6][7]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume in March increased, and the demand is in a seasonal off - peak period. The supply - demand situation is supply - strong and demand - weak [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be weak due to the supply - strong and demand - weak situation and high futures premium [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in North China was 8,150 yuan per ton, and the basis was weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to decrease due to the planned reduction of production in some domestic plants and reduced imports. Demand is improving as the downstream resumes work, and it is the peak season for agricultural film demand in March and April [8]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil, and the upside is limited by the import window. In the medium term, as the situation eases and new plants are put into operation, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC** - Market Performance: V05 closed at 5,735, down 1.3% [8]. - Fundamentals: The price rose due to rising oil prices and reduced production of the ethylene method. The ethylene - method operating rate is decreasing, and social inventory is at a new high [8]. - Trading Strategy: With supply reduction and weak demand, and high valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **Glass** - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1,066, down 2.7% [8]. - Fundamentals: The sentiment improved due to crude oil, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Supply is decreasing, and downstream demand recovery is slow [8]. - Trading Strategy: With supply reduction and weak demand, and low valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - **PP** - Market Performance: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 8,550 yuan per ton, and the basis strengthened. The import window is closed, and the export is increasing [8][9]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is reduced due to less new plant investment and potential production reduction in some plants. Demand is improving as the downstream resumes work [8][9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil. In the long term, the supply - demand situation will improve slightly but still has contradictions, and it is advisable to short at high prices [8][9]. - **Crude Oil** - Market Performance: Oil prices rose sharply, with Brent reaching $108 per barrel. The situation in the Middle East escalated, and the Strait of Hormuz is almost closed [9]. - Fundamentals: Iran's oil production and export are affected. The daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely low, and Gulf countries have cut production [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to use options to participate in trading to control risks. Enterprises can buy out - of - the - money call or put options according to their expectations [9]. - **Styrene** - Market Performance: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in East China was 10,100 yuan per ton, and the import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - Fundamentals: Pure benzene and styrene inventories are in a normal or improving situation. Supply may be tight in the short term due to potential production reduction in some plants. Downstream demand is recovering [9]. - Trading Strategy: In the short term, the price follows crude oil. In the long term, the supply - demand situation will weaken as the geopolitical situation eases [9]. - **Soda Ash** - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1,211, down 2.5% [9][10]. - Fundamentals: After continuous price increases, the sentiment weakened, and the price corrected. Supply is recovering, and inventory is stable. Downstream demand has mixed trends [9][10]. - Trading Strategy: With supply increase and weak demand, and neutral valuation, it is advisable to wait and see [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be oscillating and strengthening, but in the near term, it may experience wide - range oscillations. The main logic of aluminum prices has shifted from the game between the lack of supply elasticity and the long - term demand expectations of artificial intelligence and new energy to the game between geopolitical disturbances and weak real - world demand. Considering factors such as relatively heavy net long positions of overseas funds, weak growth of US technology stocks, and a significant rebound in US Treasury yields, market oscillations may intensify in the near term [4][10]. - The Shanghai Aluminum is expected to continue its high - level oscillating and strengthening pattern, with intensified multi - empty games. The core driving forces are the expectation of tightened overseas supply due to Middle - East geopolitical risks, combined with the depletion of LME inventories and low available inventories, providing support. However, factors such as inventory accumulation pressure, a strong US dollar, and profit - taking sentiment exert downward pressure [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Bauxite Market**: In the import ore market, new ore production capacity in Guinea is steadily shipping, with an expected increase in supply. Australia's supply has declined due to the rainy season, but Guinea's supply increase can cover the gap, resulting in an overall oversupply of imported ore. However, the prolonged conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has strongly supported international shipping prices, and the cost of imported bauxite may stop falling [8]. - **Alumina Market**: As of March 13, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11,255 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 9,290 million tons (9,160 million tons before the Spring Festival), and an operating rate of 82.72%, which is at a relatively high level in recent years. In the second quarter, the overall supply of alumina at home and abroad is expected to remain loose. Domestic supply is supported by new production capacity and sufficient raw materials, and overseas supply is under continuous pressure due to the release of new production capacity and adjustments by some enterprises. Although some enterprises are undergoing maintenance or production cuts, the overall supply increase is greater than the demand increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is mainly characterized by oversupply [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, in February, the domestic built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,618.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was 4,483.93 million tons (4,477.93 million tons last month), approaching the 4,500 - million - ton production capacity limit. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. However, in the second and third quarters of 2026, about 1 - 1.2 billion tons of production capacity from Chinese - funded projects in Indonesia, India and other places (such as Liqin Resources and Huaqing Aluminum) may be put into production. If they are put into production on schedule, it may exert some pressure on global aluminum prices and exports. Currently, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and there is great uncertainty in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply. Overall, the market expects that the global aluminum supply elasticity will be very small in 2026 [8]. - **Imports and Exports**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 4,300 yuan/ton, compared with about 3,500 yuan/ton last week, which is at a low level in recent years. According to customs data, from December 2025 to the end of February 2026, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in China has dropped significantly [8]. - **Inventory**: As of March 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 1.31 million tons, an increase of about 3% compared with last week and about 51% higher than the same period last year. The weekly outbound volume has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level in recent years. Historically, the inflection point of social inventory usually occurs between mid - March and late March. The inventory of aluminum rods is 372,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% compared with last week and about 31% higher than the same period last year, which is at a high level in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly by about 3%, about 12% lower than the same period last year, and is at a low level in recent years. The MOZAL plant in Mozambique (with an annual production capacity of 580,000 tons) shut down in mid - March, and the release of new production capacity in Indonesia has been delayed. The global visible inventory is only sufficient for about 5.6 days of consumption (a historical low), making the market highly sensitive [8][14]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,650 yuan/ton, with a spot theoretical profit of about 40 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 300 yuan/ton for the futures main - contract month. The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,700 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 8,300 yuan/ton, compared with 7,700 yuan/ton last week. The profit is at a historical high [10]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of various aluminum - related products have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of bauxite SI2 - 3% from Guinea increased from 61 to 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.64%. The price of alumina in Henan increased from 2,665 to 2,705 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.50%. The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price increased from 24,715 to 24,960 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 0.99% [11]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of bauxite at ports has been gradually increasing since February and is currently at a high level in recent years. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate and is at a high level in the past 5 years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has changed little, while the inventory of alumina plants has significantly decreased and the port inventory has significantly increased [13][14]. Downstream Start - up Overview - The weekly start - up rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 2.4 percentage points to 61.9%, continuing the post - holiday recovery trend. All sectors have increased, and the industry has generally entered the normal production rhythm. The demand for UHV and overhead lines is strong, and enterprise production schedules have covered March. The aluminum foil market has remained stable, with both the recovery of traditional peak - season demand and short - term support from battery foils. The increase in the start - up rate of aluminum plates has been hindered due to a year - on - year decline in automobile plate orders and the suspension of exports to the Middle East. The start - up rate of aluminum profiles has increased significantly, mainly due to the return of employees and good acceptance of engineering orders, and there is also support from photovoltaic and automobile profiles. The primary aluminum alloy market is highly wait - and - see, and the terminal orders of recycled aluminum have not increased significantly [15]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long positions of funds have slightly rebounded, and both the long and short camps have generally increased their positions since January. Currently, the long side is dominant, but due to the heavy floating - profit positions of the long side, high - level repeated market conditions are likely to occur [30]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the long - position camp of major institutions has remained stable, while the short - position camp has slightly increased its positions. Most speculative - based institutions hold net short positions and wait and see. The funds from mid - and downstream enterprises are still in a state of multi - empty stalemate. Overall, the main funds do not seem to highly recognize a further short - term increase [33]. Price Structure - **Futures - Spot Structure**: The current Shanghai Aluminum futures show a contango structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The spot demand is average, and macro - level guidance is stronger [21]. - **Spread Structure**: The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,390 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,480 yuan/ton before the Spring Festival. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral - to - positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [26][28]. Trading Strategies - **Medium - term Strategy**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions. New long positions are advised to wait and see [7]. - **Spot Enterprises Hedging Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased slightly last week. As of March 6, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8,950 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,900 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of industrial silicon price is in an upward channel, and the main short - position camp has a slight advantage [8][9]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see. The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased last week. As of March 6, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 154,800 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,750 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main force has an obvious bearish attitude [34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are in a volatile state. The spot price decreased slightly last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily line is in an upward channel, and the main short - position camp has a slight advantage. It is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the same range [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [14][18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility. The spot price decreased last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily line is in a sideways phase, and the main force has an obvious bearish attitude. It is recommended to wait and see [34][35]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see. This week, it is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is still recommended to wait and see [38]. 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41][43].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the weekly analysis of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures, covering mid - term market analysis, trading strategies, and relevant data [2] Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a weak and volatile state [7] - As of February 28, the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9050 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan [7] - The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price of industrial silicon is in a sideways phase, and the main long - position camp has a slight advantage [7] - The mid - term strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach [8] Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and the same range is expected this week [11] Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [13] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [17][19][24] Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility [31] - As of February 28, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 170,000 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 173,050 yuan/ton [32] - The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures is basically in an upward channel, and the main players have a clear bullish attitude [32] - The mid - term strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach due to the large price fluctuations [32] Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate showed a strong - side fluctuating trend, and the same is expected this week, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [35] Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3228 tons from the previous week, and is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38] - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures are currently in a weak and volatile state, with the spot price remaining stable last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main forces. It is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [7][8][12]. - Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility. The spot price declined slightly last week. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is basically in an upward channel, and the main forces have an obvious bullish attitude. It is recommended to wait and see, and the main contract is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend [30][31][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a weak and volatile state [7]. - Trend judgment logic: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable last week. As of February 13, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Yunnan was 9,900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 10,000 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is in a sideways phase, and there is no obvious long - short bias among the main forces [7]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it was recommended to wait and see to avoid risks during the long holiday [11]. - This week's strategy: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18][21][23]. Lithium Carbonate Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: Lithium carbonate futures are in a state of significant volatility [30]. - Trend judgment logic: The spot price of lithium carbonate declined slightly last week. As of February 13, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 139,000 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 142,200 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows that the daily price is basically in an upward channel, and the main forces have an obvious bullish attitude [31]. - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: Due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it was recommended to wait and see to avoid risks during the long holiday [34]. - This week's strategy: The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. 3.3 Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [37]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. From a seasonal perspective, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [39][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The medium - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is oscillating strongly. Before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply, but geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. The low - end price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high - end around 24,000 - 25,000. The price of aluminum ingots after the Spring Festival in 2026 shows a trend of bottoming out, digesting, and then oscillating and recovering. In the short term, it is weakly affected by high inventory, and in the medium term, it will gradually strengthen with the full resumption of work of downstream industries and the start of the traditional peak season, mainly with range - based recovery and no significant unilateral market. [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View - **Bauxite market**: It shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With the increase in shipping volume since January, the inventory at major Chinese ports is expected to gradually increase in mid - to late February. The cost of transporting bauxite from Guinean mines to ports varies greatly. Large mines have strong cost - resistance, while some small - and medium - sized inland mines are under cost pressure but have not significantly reduced production. The Guinean government's quota system policy, if introduced, may significantly affect supply, but there is no official confirmation yet. [9] - **Alumina market**: As of February 13, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 93.3 million tons (93.6 million tons last week), and the operating rate is 83.46%. The operating capacity has slightly declined from the high level since October 2025 but is still at a high level in recent years. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In January, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the output was 44.7793 million tons. The production capacity has plateaued, but the output has slightly increased. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. Although the high aluminum price has promoted an increase in overseas marginal production, the new energy investment of electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the US is severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, and new projects in countries like India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is expected to be very small. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum import and export**: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week), at a low level in recent years. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthroughs, but increasing external barriers". Although the overall growth rate may slow down, the export structure in high - value - added fields such as new energy and transportation lightweighting continues to optimize. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum inventory**: As of February 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 914,000 tons, and on February 19, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants was about 191,000 tons, both near the same - period high since 2024. On the 12th, the social inventory of aluminum rods was 309,000 tons, at a high level in the past 10 years. However, the inventory accumulation is expected to reach an inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory is about 475,600 tons, which has slightly declined since 2025 and is at a low level in recent years. [9] - **Alumina profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about - 50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 160 yuan/ton. [10] - **Electrolytic aluminum profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (6,500 yuan/ton last week), at a high level in history. [10] 2. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend judgment**: The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly, and before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply. [4] - **Trend judgment logic**: The start of restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply will drive the market to run strongly. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. [4] - **Mid - line strategy suggestion**: Keep an appropriate inventory. [4] 3. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, and new long positions can be appropriately established below 23,000. [7] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory, and for spot enterprises, consider light - position long positions or clear positions for the holiday. [7] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 50 yuan/ton, a theoretical profit of the futures main - contract of about 160 yuan/ton, and a theoretical import profit of about - 50 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton (the same as last week), the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (about 6,500 yuan/ton last week), and the theoretical import loss is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week). [12] 5. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,540 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,520 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and it has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum. [21][23] 6. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly narrowed recently but is still at a high level since 2018. In the latest period, the net long position of funds has continued to decline slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have slightly reduced their positions at high levels, while short - position holders have slightly increased their positions. Currently, long - position holders have heavy floating - profit positions, which may lead to repeated high - level market conditions. [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market has high volatility. Gold is recommended to reduce long - positions and wait and see in the short term, while the long - term outlook remains positive. Silver is in short supply in the spot market, but the market sentiment is fragile, so it is recommended to participate with caution [1]. - For basic metals, the prices of electrolytic aluminum, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are expected to be volatile in the short term. Alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile in the 45000 - 53000 yuan range [2][3]. - In the black industry, the prices of rebar, iron ore, and coking coal are expected to be widely volatile in the short term, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [4][5]. - In the agricultural product market, soybeans are strong in the US, while domestic soybeans are weaker than the international market. Corn, palm oil, and cotton are expected to be volatile. Egg and hog futures prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, the prices of LLDPE, PP, and PVC are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and the medium - term outlook is improved. PTA is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is improved. MEG is expected to have inventory accumulation in the medium term, and short - selling positions should be held. Crude oil trading is mainly affected by Iranian geopolitical risks, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04. Benzene and styrene are expected to be widely volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on benzene and styrene in the second quarter. Soda ash is recommended to wait and see [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Market performance: On the night of February 9th (Monday), precious metals strengthened across the board, with Shanghai silver leading the rise by nearly 5%, and gold also rising. The linkage between domestic and foreign markets was strong [1]. - Fundamentals: Some Fed officials made statements. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed, and ETF holdings also changed. India's silver imports in some months were reported [1]. - Trading strategy: For gold, reduce long - positions and wait and see in the short term, and remain bullish in the long term. For silver, participate with caution due to market sentiment [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.97% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 325 yuan/ton. The LME price was 3087 US dollars/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile in the short term due to macro uncertainties and supply - demand characteristics [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.56% compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 231 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to the marginal reduction in supply [2]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of - 0.59%. The trading volume and capital increased [2]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the aluminum alloy start - up rate is stable [2]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile between 8200 - 8800 yuan. If the large - scale production reduction is short - term, consider short - selling at high prices [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: LC2605 closed at 137,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased. The production of lithium salt decreased, and the production of downstream materials was expected to decline. The inventory was in a tight balance in Q1, and the total inventory days increased [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile, easy to rise and difficult to fall, supported by strong demand expectations [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 05 contract closed at 49370 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price ratio of 0.17%. The trading volume and capital increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was flat, and the industry inventory was stable. The production of silicon wafers in February was stable, while the production of cells and components decreased. The photovoltaic export policy provided some support [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile between 45000 - 53000 yuan [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The building material inventory increased, the demand for building materials was weak, and the supply decreased year - on - year. The demand for plates was stable, and the inventory was high but the marginal change was strong. Steel mills were in losses, and the production increase was limited [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of RB05 being 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 764 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [4]. - Fundamentals: The shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased, the iron ore supply - demand was neutral, the iron - water production increased slightly, and the coke price increase plan was on hold. The furnace - charge replenishment was nearly over, and the inventory days increased. The structural contradiction of port iron ore remained [4]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of I05 being 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1126.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous night - trading closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron - water production increased, the steel mill profit was poor, and the first - round price increase of coking coal was implemented with no further plan. The inventory was divided among different links, and the 05 contract was at a premium to the spot [5]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the reference range of JM05 being 1100 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybeans fell [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term in South America. The demand for US soybean crushing was strong, and the export expectation increased [6]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the USDA report in the short term and China's purchase of US soybeans and South American production in the medium term. The domestic market is weaker than the international market, with a unilateral shock to find the bottom and a reverse - spread structure [6]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price was mostly stable [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress was over 60%, and the selling pressure was not large. The selling sentiment in the Northeast increased before the Spring Festival, and the downstream enterprises replenished inventory at low prices. The trading was expected to be light, and the price was expected to fluctuate slightly [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be volatile as the trading becomes light [6]. Fats and Oils - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [6]. - Fundamentals: The estimated production in Malaysia in January decreased by 12% month - on - month, and the export increased by 18% month - on - month. The market expected the inventory at the end of January to decrease by 4.6% to 291 [6]. - Trading strategy: The unilateral trend of fats and oils is at a critical point. The resonance of weak seasonal production reduction and biodiesel expectation is weakened, with a reverse - spread structure. Pay attention to the MPOB report [6]. Cotton - Market performance: The overnight ICE US cotton futures price rebounded, and the international crude oil price continued to rise. The Zhengzhou cotton futures price entered a shock adjustment [6]. - Fundamentals: The un - priced sales contracts of US cotton decreased, and the Australian cotton export decreased in December. The spinning mill start - up rate decreased, and the new order growth slowed down [6]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see, with the price range of 14500 - 14900 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price was stable [7]. - Fundamentals: The laying - hen inventory decreased, the chick - replenishment was active, and the demand was weakening. The egg price was expected to decline seasonally [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Hogs - Market performance: The hog futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price continued to fall [7]. - Fundamentals: The slaughter volume increased during the Spring Festival preparation but was expected to decline after the Minor New Year. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly. The spot price in North China was 6570 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [8]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply pressure slowed down due to new device commissioning and some device shutdowns. The import was expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand was weakening [8]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium term, buy at low prices as the supply - demand pattern improves [8]. PVC - Market performance: The V05 contract closed at 4992, a 0.2% increase [8]. - Fundamentals: The PVC price rebounded due to macro - support. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The social inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Buy the 09 contract and sell the 01 contract for a positive spread [8]. PTA - Market performance: The PXCFR China price was 902 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 62 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased, and the inventory pressure was not large [9]. - Trading strategy: In the medium term, maintain the long - position view on PX and look for buying opportunities. For PTA, take profit appropriately as the processing fee is high [9]. Glass - Market performance: The fg05 contract closed at 1079, a 0.6% increase [9]. - Fundamentals: The glass price was stable, and the trading was light. The supply decreased, and the inventory was high. The downstream demand was weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Buy glass and sell soda ash [9]. PP - Market performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly. The East China spot price was 6570 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased slightly, and the demand decreased due to the downstream holiday [9]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand pattern improves slightly, and short - sell at high prices [9]. MEG - Market performance: The MEG East China spot price was 3675 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased due to the restart of oil - based devices, and the import decreased. The inventory in some ports in East China increased, and the polyester load decreased [9]. - Trading strategy: Hold short - selling positions as the medium - term supply - demand inventory accumulation remains [9]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The oil price rose due to the Iran - US negotiation uncertainty [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply decreased in January due to multiple factors, and the US - Iran negotiation is the core. The medium - term supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season [9]. - Trading strategy: Buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 due to high geopolitical risks [9]. Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: The EB main contract fell slightly. The East China spot price was 7560 yuan/ton, and the overseas price rose slightly. The import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene inventory was at a normal - high level, and the benzene - styrene inventory was at a normal - low level. The demand was weak due to the downstream holiday [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the price is expected to be widely volatile, with the upside limited by the import window. In the second quarter, go long on benzene and styrene or do a pure - benzene reverse - spread [10]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa05 contract closed at 1182, a 1% decrease [10]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash price was at the bottom, the supply was large, and the inventory increased slightly. The downstream demand was weak [10]. - Trading strategy: Wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report" [2] - Report Period: February 2 - 6, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently oscillating. As of January 30, the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9050 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 9900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the price is in a sideways phase, and the main force has a clear bearish attitude [8]. - Mid - term Strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [12]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18][21][26] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently on an upward trend. As of January 30, the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 156,600 yuan/ton, and that of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,500 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation report shows the futures are in a strong upward phase, and the main force has a strong bullish sentiment [34][35]. - Mid - term Strategy: Due to the large price fluctuations, adopt a wait - and - see approach [35]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The bottom of lithium carbonate was rising, and the main contract should focus on the support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan [38]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main contract of lithium carbonate has support in the range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan. This week, focus on whether the closing price breaks the support range and adopt a wait - and - see approach [39]. Relevant Data - As of April 19, 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [43][48]