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有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 07:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of precious metals is expected to remain strong due to factors such as the US government shutdown crisis, geopolitical conflicts, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China and high uncertainties in the overseas market, it is advisable to reduce positions on futures at high prices [5]. - Copper prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply disruptions, and weakening consumption. Short - term copper prices may have a correction, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions [7][10]. - Alumina is expected to maintain a weak operation due to the over - supply situation, import window opening, and the limited impact of policies on capacity investment [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and the alloy ingot spot price remains stable and slightly strong [19][20]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term, with possible seasonal inventory accumulation after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the negative feedback on prices if demand does not recover rapidly [23][24]. - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but there is still a risk of further decline if there is a large - scale delivery in LME. The supply of refined zinc may increase in October, and consumption is expected to remain weak [27][28][29]. - Lead prices may decline as the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase while consumption shows no obvious improvement [35][36]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with a relatively flat downstream consumption trend and a surplus in the refined nickel market, and attention should be paid to import and visible inventory changes [38][39]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with increased production in September but no obvious seasonal peak in demand, and cost support at the bottom [43][45]. - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips, as the inventory structure is prone to positive feedback between futures and spot prices, and there are uncertainties in supply and demand [48]. - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction, and it is recommended to exit long positions first and then re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday [50][51][52]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, with limited supply growth, strong demand, and continuous inventory depletion [55]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with a tight supply at the mine end, weak demand, and slow improvement in the short - term fundamentals [56][60][61]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed up 0.28% at $3758.78 per ounce, and London silver closed up 2% at $46.032 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - The US dollar index fell 0.4% to 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield weakened to 4.164%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.04% to 7.1349 [3]. Important Information - US macro - data such as PCE price index and consumer confidence index were released, and the Fed's interest - rate decision probability was predicted [4][5]. - The US government faces a shutdown crisis, and there are signs of an escalation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices on futures and reduce positions to lock in profits [5]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper futures fell 0.79% to 81890 yuan per ton, and LME copper fell 0.69% to $10205 per ton. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 14.44 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1228 tons to 32.22 million tons [7]. Important Information - China's power generation capacity data, the possible delay of the US employment report, and relevant industry policies were released [8][9]. - Argentina approved a copper project, and Grasberg's production is expected to decline [9][10]. Trading Strategy - Take profits at high prices before the holiday, hold light positions, and consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [7]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina futures fell 49 yuan to 2867 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - Industry policies on alumina project investment were introduced, and information on production capacity, raw material prices, and imports was provided [13][14][17]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy futures fell 115 yuan to 20200 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [19]. Important Information - Policies affecting the recycled aluminum industry were introduced, and the inventory of aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [19]. Trading Strategy - Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with aluminum prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum futures fell 115 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton, and spot prices in different regions showed different trends [22]. Important Information - US economic data and electrolytic aluminum inventory changes were reported [22]. Trading Strategy - The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 1.23% to $2886.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc fell 1.5% to 21705 yuan per ton. Spot trading was dull [27]. Important Information - Zinc concentrate inventory decreased, and domestic and imported zinc ore processing fees showed different trends [27]. Trading Strategy - Zinc prices may rebound in the short term, but pay attention to the risk of further decline if there is large - scale delivery in LME. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.37% to $2001.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead fell 0.09% to 17075 yuan per ton. Spot trading was general [31]. Important Information - The profitability of recycled lead smelters improved, and the production of lead batteries showed different trends [31][32]. Trading Strategy - Lead prices may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell $85 to $15155 per ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 1050 yuan to 120790 yuan per ton. Spot premiums showed different trends [38]. Important Information - Industry policies on resource exploration and a nickel mine exploration right auction were reported [38][39]. Trading Strategy - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel futures fell 85 yuan to 12765 yuan per ton, and spot prices were in a certain range [42]. Important Information - India approved the BIS certification for steel from Taiwan, China [43]. Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [46]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and some spot prices strengthened [48]. Important Information - China's industrial silicon export data was reported, and there were rumors about production capacity expansion [48]. Trading Strategy - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction and then can be bought on dips. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [48]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures rebounded from the bottom, and spot prices were stable [50][51]. Important Information - A research on EU solar component production capacity was reported [51]. Trading Strategy - Polysilicon prices may have a short - term correction. Exit long positions first and re - enter after sufficient correction after the holiday. Do reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [51][52]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Lithium carbonate futures fell 1160 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and spot prices decreased [53]. Important Information - News about China's new energy vehicle development and a battery project was reported [53][55]. Trading Strategy - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [56]. Tin Market Review - Tin futures fell 0.12% to 273220 yuan per ton, and spot trading was not ideal [56]. Important Information - US PCE price index data and industry policies were reported [58][59]. Trading Strategy - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [61].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250929
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:51
2025.09.29-09.30 电解铝 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 展望四季度,全球经济预期改善、美联储降息周期开启及国内政策托底,供 应方面,国内外增量有限,呈现刚性约束,新能源板块保持强劲而地产板块 持续低迷,整体需求韧性依旧,预计2025年四季度铝价将呈现偏强震荡格局。 2 20000以下可以考虑持中期多单。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 未来一周沪铝2 5 1 1支撑约2 0 5 0 0 ,阻力约2 0 9 0 0 ,短线交易。 大区间震荡 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 长假期临近,避险观望为宜。 本周策略建议 适量配置过节库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 【总体观点】 | | 2025年9月第4周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 四季度几内亚铝土矿扰动预计可控,但由于其资源垄断性及铝土矿在当地财政的占比较高,预计价格在 | | | 70-75美元/吨波动。国内矿山治理政策,对国内矿石将形成长期约束,四季度供应预计难有明显改善。 | | 氧化铝市场 | 截止9月26日,国内氧化铝建成产能约11255万吨,运行产能约9670万吨,产能利用率约85.95%,上周 | | ...
电解铝期货品种周报-20250922
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:05
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market shows a large - range oscillation tendency. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December [5][11]. - The overall price of aluminum may be under pressure and oscillate. The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - **Mid - line Trend Judgment**: The market is in a large - range oscillation. After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. It is advisable to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Variety Trading Strategy**: - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week was about 20,800, and the resistance was about 21,400. Hold long positions with a light position [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 in the coming week is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900. Conduct short - term trading. Spot enterprises are recommended to increase inventory appropriately [8]. 3.2 Overall Viewpoints - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Recently, the price of Guinean bauxite has tightened seasonally due to the rainy - season shipping. After the rainy season ends, the ore price is expected to have a seasonal correction without unexpected events, but there is an obvious support at 70 US dollars/ton. In the fourth quarter, the domestic ore output will be marginally repaired, but the overall supply is difficult to improve significantly due to stricter environmental protection and supervision [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 12, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 86.23% (85.21% last week), which is at a high level since 2022. Since late August, the smelting profit has slightly declined. Now the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of September 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the policy ceiling of 45 million tons, the operating capacity is 44.1 million tons, and the operating rate is as high as 98%, with limited room for further production increase. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter only comes from 100,000 tons of Chalco Qinghai (transfer of Yunnan's quota) and a 250,000 - ton replacement project of Xinjiang Nongliushi Aluminum Industry. The net increase for the whole year is expected to be less than 500,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in 2025 is expected to be 43.96 - 44.5 million tons, with a year - on - year growth rate dropping to 1.5% - 2.3%. The output in the fourth quarter may remain high but is difficult to increase significantly [9]. - **Import and Export**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. Although the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half, the overall resilience is still expected [9]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate increased by 0.6 percentage points to 54.6% this week. The operating rate of construction profiles remains low, while industrial profiles have received more new orders recently in the traditional peak season of September, supporting the operating rate. Most enterprises have not determined the National Day holiday arrangements, and some enterprises in Sichuan and Shandong plan to take about 3 days off [10]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 68.2% this week. In the short term, the operating rate of leading aluminum sheet enterprises is expected to remain stable or oscillate upward. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remains stable at 71.9%, and the slowdown of leading enterprises is obvious. In the short term, supported by the peak - season effect, the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises is expected to oscillate between 72% - 75% [10]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of the aluminum cable industry remained stable at 65.2% this week. All leading manufacturers are busy. As the National Day holiday approaches, the purchasing intensity of downstream manufacturers is expected to increase further, and the operating rate is expected to rise slowly next week [10]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of the primary aluminum alloy sector decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.4% this week, and the industry's production capacity release has slightly converged. Although the industry's operating rate is oscillating and adjusting in the short term, SMM still has an optimistic expectation for the peak season. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 55.9% this week, mainly benefiting from the alleviation of raw material procurement pressure and the moderate recovery of orders. The short - term industry operating rate will maintain a slight upward trend, but raw material shortages and policy factors will continue to suppress the capacity recovery elasticity [10]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 640,000 tons, an increase of about 3% from last week and about 14% lower than the same period last year, continuing the inventory - building trend since mid - July. This week's inventory increase is mainly due to the decrease in warehouse shipments, but the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased. The increase in electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to be limited in the near future. The aluminum rod inventory is 130,200 tons, basically stable compared with last week and about 9% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory has risen again, continuing the inventory - building pattern since the end of June. As there are signs of the Russia - Ukraine war ending through negotiations, the previous market's hidden inventory is gradually becoming explicit, and the LME inventory is still likely to accumulate in the future [10][16]. - **Alumina**: The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants. The port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,840 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week) [11]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week). The profit is at a relatively high level [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The macro - situation is dull, the supply is stable due to the capacity ceiling, the pre - National Day stocking demand limits the downside, but the demand gap cannot be filled by partial downstream chasing and restocking. Meanwhile, the social inventory continues to accumulate, warehouse shipments are at a low level in recent years, and the spot premium shows a discount, putting pressure on prices [11]. - **Personal View**: After the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the macro - driving force weakens, but the US PMI stabilizes from a decline, and China's anti - involution policy continues to advance, keeping the macro - situation generally positive. In terms of supply and demand, there is an oversupply of upstream alumina and a tight balance in domestic electrolytic aluminum. In October, there is still a slight upward momentum in the peak season, and it may enter a wide - range oscillation state from November to December. The aluminum price may still be under pressure and consolidate in the coming week. The support for SHFE aluminum 2511 is about 20,500, and the resistance is about 20,900 [11]. - **Key Concerns**: 1. Changes in domestic social inventory. 2. Whether there are disturbances at the Guinean ore end. 3. The implementation of China's anti - involution - related policies [11]. 3.3 Important Industry Link Price Changes - This week, bauxite prices remained stable. As the rainy season in Guinea is approaching recovery and there are frequent policy - related disturbance news, and the long - term contract price in the fourth quarter has not been finalized, the increase in the supply of imported bauxite has become the focus of the market. Coal prices rose slightly, driven by pre - holiday stocking. Under strict current production capacity control, the pit - mouth price is resistant to decline. Seasonally, the single - electricity price in Yunnan is about 0.382 yuan, and it is more likely to rise in October. This week, the alumina price continued to decline slightly. Due to oversupply and inventory accumulation, the spot price is under pressure [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - This week, the domestic port bauxite inventory slightly rebounded, continuing to accumulate to a recent high since the beginning of 2025 and stabilizing at a high level after August. However, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants is still increasing. According to DISR's forecast, the export volume of Australian bauxite is expected to remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the domestic bauxite supply is abundant. The overall alumina inventory continues to accumulate, and the increase mainly comes from the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, while the port inventory is still at a low level in recent years [16]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry this week is about 2,840 yuan/ton, the profit is about 200 yuan/ton (about 270 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical import profit of alumina is about 150 yuan/ton (120 yuan/ton last week); the electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17,200 yuan/ton (about 17,500 yuan/ton last week), the theoretical profit is about 3,600 yuan/ton (3,700 yuan/ton last week); the theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,800 yuan/ton (about 1,400 yuan/ton last week) [18]. - **Downstream Processing**: The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.2% this week, 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating of leading primary alloy enterprises is stable, but small and medium - sized enterprises' operating rates have adjusted due to demand fluctuations; the operating rate of sampled aluminum sheet enterprises decreased slightly this week; the operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable; the operating rate of profiles increased slightly, mainly because industrial profiles are supported by orders from the automotive and photovoltaic industries; the demand for packaging foil is rigid but has limited growth; the operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry increased slightly. The weekly operating rate of downstream aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [22][23]. 3.6 Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is weak [28]. 3.7 Spread Structure - This week, the spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,040 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,940 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the current spread has a moderately strong impact on electrolytic aluminum [35][36]. 3.8 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: After remaining stable for the previous four weeks, the net long position of funds in the latest period has significantly increased, mainly related to the Fed's interest rate cut in September. According to the dot - plot, there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the overall market is still bullish [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long position of the main contract slightly declined, and both the long and short camps slightly reduced their positions; the net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation slightly reduced. The funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises changed from a slight net long position to a slight net short position and have been in a stalemate between long and short recently. Judging from the performance of the current main funds, the market may oscillate and be under pressure in the coming week [41].
商品期货早班车-20250917
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, with expectations of a Fed rate cut. Gold is bullish in the medium - term but may experience a short - term pullback after hitting new highs. Silver follows gold, and it is recommended to take profits in the domestic market after it breaks through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - The aluminum market is expected to rise due to enhanced rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand. Alumina is in a supply - demand surplus, and its rebound space is limited. Zinc requires observation. Lead is recommended to be bought at dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to trade in a range, and polysilicon also presents a 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel supply and demand are seasonally weak with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in steel. Iron ore should be observed. For coking coal, close long positions in the 2605 contract [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term trends of soybean meal are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies. Corn futures are expected to decline. For sugar, go short in the futures market and sell call options. Cotton can be bought at dips. Logs should be observed. Palm oil is bullish in the medium - term. Eggs are expected to strengthen in the short - term. For pork, consider reverse spread strategies [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical sector, LLDPE and PP are expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the medium - to long - term. PVC can be shorted after a rebound. Glass and soda ash are expected to improve seasonally. Crude oil should be shorted at highs. Styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short - term and become more bearish in the long - term. Caustic soda can be bought [8][9][10]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price reaching $3,700 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Milan was confirmed as a Fed governor, and the US retail sales in August increased for three consecutive months. Gold ETF funds in China continued to flow in, and the inventories of gold and silver in various regions showed different changes [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on gold in the medium - term but expect a short - term pullback. Take profits on silver after it breaks through 10,000 yuan in the domestic market [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% to 20,975 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and downstream consumption continued to recover [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on aluminum due to rate - cut expectations and pre - National Day stocking demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.50% to 2,979 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants had high operating capacity, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rebound of alumina prices is limited due to supply - demand surplus [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2510 contract decreased by 0.25% to 22,255 yuan per ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was abundant with some disturbances, and consumption was "not in the peak season". Inventories continued to accumulate [2][3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [2][3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2510 contract decreased by 0.61% to 17,055 yuan per ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply tightened regionally, and consumption was expected to rise with pre - National Day stocking [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at dips [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract closed at 8,815 yuan per ton, up 1.31% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and both social and warehouse inventories started to accumulate slightly. Demand was at a relatively high level this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the 8,200 - 9,200 range and observe [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 - contract closed at 53,670 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was stable, and inventories started to accumulate. Demand from the photovoltaic industry was pessimistic in Q3 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the 52,000 - 57,000 range and consider 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunities [3]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,151 yuan per ton, down 24 yuan [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventories increased, and the supply - demand of building materials was neutral to weak, while that of plates was stable [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on long positions [4][5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 799.5 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Australian and Brazilian shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. Iron ore supply and demand were neutral to strong [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,233.5 yuan per ton, down 5.5 yuan [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron - making output increased, and the overall inventory of coking coal decreased. Futures were over - valued [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions in the 2605 contract [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on expectations of improved US soybean exports [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South American soybeans were expected to increase. Demand was structurally differentiated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trends are affected by Sino - US negotiations, and medium - term trends depend on tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of corn traded in a narrow range, with spot prices rising in the Northeast and falling in the North [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Imported grain auctions increased supply, and new - crop corn was expected to increase production with lower costs [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to decline [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,544 yuan per ton, down 0.2% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's sugar production was high, and the growth of sugarcane in different regions in China showed different situations [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rose, and Zhengzhou cotton futures trended upwards [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton boll - opening rate was behind last year, and the domestic retail sales of clothing increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at dips in the 13,800 - 14,500 range [7]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 806.5 yuan per cubic meter, up 0.25% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventories decreased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in a seasonal increase period, and exports increased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term, with the core driver being seasonal production cuts [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of eggs corrected, and some spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Demand increased seasonally, but supply was abundant [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expected to strengthen in the short - term [7]. Pork - **Market Performance**: The 2511 contract of pork corrected, and spot prices fell [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption increased, but supply was also abundant. Policy support was expected to reduce future supply pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reverse spread strategies [7]. Energy and Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE rose slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic supply increased, and imports were expected to decrease slightly. Demand improved seasonally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract of PVC rose 1% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were in a weak balance, and inventories reached a new high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a rebound [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract of glass rose 3.5% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was large, and inventories decreased seasonally. Downstream demand improved slightly [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved seasonally [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the medium - to long - term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose for three consecutive days due to supply concerns [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weakening [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at highs [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene rebounded slightly, with a weakening basis [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels, and downstream demand improved seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade sideways in the short - term and go short in the long - term [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract of soda ash rose 3.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was increasing, and demand from the photovoltaic and glass industries improved seasonally [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [9]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The SH01 contract of caustic soda rose 0.5% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved seasonally [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long [10].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250908
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In September, the domestic aluminum market is expected to show a stable - to - strong supply - demand situation. The operating rate of aluminum plants is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is likely to rise, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" demand recovery period, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to support prices. The price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [5][12]. - Currently, the consumption side shows only marginal improvement, and it still takes time for inventory to be effectively reduced. However, due to the low total inventory, the aluminum price is likely to rise rather than fall in the traditional peak season of September, but there is still upward pressure [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: In September, the domestic aluminum plant capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to decline. The demand recovery expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" is strong, downstream orders are expected to increase, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is approaching the de - stocking inflection point, which is expected to start de - stocking around mid - September, forming support for prices. The supply - demand situation in September is stable and slightly strong [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support was seen at 20,600, and the resistance was seen at 20,900 - 21,000. It was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For Shanghai Aluminum 2510 in the coming week, the support is seen at 20,300, and the resistance is seen at 20,900. Short - term trading is advisable [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite inventory is at a high level, and raw material supply is abundant [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of September 5, the domestic alumina installed capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 95.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 84.38% (85.58% last week), currently at the highest level since 2022. With the existence of smelting profits, the weekly output remains high, but the spot price has dropped to the high - marginal cost this week, increasing the risk of alumina plant production cuts [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, the current domestic electrolytic aluminum installed capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%, at the average level since 2023. In September, with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity, the operating capacity will increase slightly, and the output is expected to increase slightly. There is an expectation of a rebound in the proportion of molten aluminum in September [10]. - **Imports and Exports**: Currently, the theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,200 yuan/ton (about 1,300 yuan/ton last week). According to customs data, aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. However, in general, the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 61.7% this week, and the "Golden September" effect is gradually emerging. Different sectors have different performances, such as the slow recovery of the primary aluminum alloy sector, the strong performance of the aluminum strip due to order growth in the automotive and 3C fields, and the rebound of the aluminum cable due to concentrated grid order delivery [11][25]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 628,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 21% lower than the same period last year. The weekly inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory is 136,500 tons, an increase of about 8% compared with last week and about 19% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is basically stable and is still at a low level since 1990, and there is a high probability of further inventory accumulation in the future [11]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 270 yuan/ton (about 380 yuan/ton last week). The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,500 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,200 yuan/ton (3,100 yuan/ton last week), with profits at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In September, with the arrival of the consumption peak season, the price of Shanghai Aluminum is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, with an attempt to break through and stabilize at the 21,000 yuan/ton level, but attention should be paid to the fulfillment of peak - season expectations and macro - economic policy changes [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed to varying degrees this week. For example, the price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 2.04% week - on - week, and the price of power coal decreased by 1.58% week - on - week. The price of pre - baked anodes in Henan increased by 1.48% week - on - week [13]. - The bauxite bulk cargo trading volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to remain stable in the near future. The coal price has decreased slightly, and downstream customers are resistant to the current price. The alumina price has continued to decline slightly, with supply exceeding demand, inventory accumulation, and downward pressure on the spot price [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 2.16% week - on - week, and it is expected to continue to decline in early September. The overall alumina inventory has continued to accumulate, with the increase mainly coming from electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants [16][18]. - The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in 7 cities increased by 0.96% week - on - week, and the inventory accumulation pace has slowed down. The aluminum rod inventory increased by 7.91% week - on - week, mainly due to the full resumption of processing plants and weak downstream demand. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.75% week - on - week and is still at a low level since 1990 [11][16][18]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contracts maintain a premium over the far - month contracts, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,960 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,830 yuan/ton last week. Currently, the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at the mid - axis level in recent years, and the current spread has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long positions of overseas funds have remained stable in the past three weeks. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's significant interest - rate cut frequency, the price may show a strong - biased volatile trend in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: This week, the net long positions of the main force remained stable, and both the long and short camps continued to reduce their positions since July. The net long positions of funds with a financial speculation background rebounded slightly, but the camp differentiation is still obvious. The net long positions of funds with a mid - downstream enterprise background remained stable. The market is expected to be dominated by wide - range fluctuations in the near future [44].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250901
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:39
Reporting Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range, with the price likely to move between 29,500 and 21,300. The lower limit is supported by the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, domestic anti - involution policies, and the possible invalidation of Trump's tariffs by the US Court of Appeals after mid - October. The upper limit is restricted by the realization of overseas hidden inventories and concerns about the decline in China's export growth in the second half of the year. In the short term, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate, and the market will be in a state of wide - range oscillation [5][13]. Summary According to the Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 29,500 - 21,300. Buying mid - term long positions can be considered when the price is below 20,000 [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the next week, the support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is between 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see [8]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: In early September, aluminum prices may still be relatively strong, and the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement in demand. The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000 [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The support level of Shanghai Aluminum 2510 for the next week is 20,600, and the resistance level is 20,900 - 21,000. It is advisable to wait and see. Spot enterprises are recommended to maintain appropriate inventories [8][9]. Overall View - **Supply - side**: China's bauxite inventory has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet the production needs for the year. The alumina capacity utilization rate is at a high level since 2022. The electrolytic aluminum production is at the average level since 2923, and the production ceiling is controllable. The current import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss of about 1,300 yuan/ton, and the export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year [10]. - **Demand - side**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased. The operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum strips, and aluminum foils is expected to rise, while the growth of primary aluminum alloy is limited. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to enter an upward channel, and the orders of some building profiles have increased [12]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased by about 5% compared with last week and is about 23% lower than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods has increased by about 6% compared with last week and is about 15% higher than the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [12][19]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 380 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Expectation**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is greater than 80%, and there is a trillion - level infrastructure stimulus and anti - involution support in China. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable and rising, the demand has peak - season expectations but no substantial improvement, and the inventory pressure is prominent, so the aluminum price will oscillate [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - **Bauxite**: The price of bauxite is expected to remain stable in the near future, with a slight increase in bulk cargo transactions this week [14]. - **Coal**: Due to the approaching major event, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and the procurement demand is postponed to after September [14]. - **Alumina**: The price continues to decline slightly, with oversupply, inventory accumulation, and a bearish fundamental situation [14]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has stabilized, the market sentiment has strengthened, and the purchasing willingness has increased [15]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - **Domestic**: The inventory of bauxite in domestic ports has increased slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is likely to continue to accumulate in the short term [17][19]. - **Overseas**: The LME aluminum inventory has basically remained flat in the past two weeks, and it is still at a low level since 1990. It is likely to continue to accumulate in the future [19]. Supply - Demand Situation - **Profit**: The profit of the alumina industry is about 380 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 3,100 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,300 yuan/ton [21]. - **Operating Rate**: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. Different sectors have different trends, with some expected to rise and some with limited growth [26]. Futures - Spot Structure The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum remains neutral. Although the inventory has accumulated recently, the near - month contract has a premium over the far - month contract, and the futures side is still relatively resistant to decline [31]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,830 yuan/ton this week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is stable. Due to the increasing market divergence, the market will be in a wide - range oscillation in the near future [41]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has been reduced. The market will be in a wide - range oscillation, and the adjustment pressure in the next week is slightly higher [43].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250825
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with prices likely to be strong in early September. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, with an expected increase in downstream operating rates. Aluminum prices may still be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. The overall macro - environment is positive, but there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [5][8][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market will experience large - range oscillations, and prices are expected to be strong in early September. It is advisable to consider holding medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5]. - **Logic for Trend Judgment**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, China is about to enter the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream operating rates are expected to rise [5]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Due to Trump's tariff actions, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it was advisable to wait and see [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: Aluminum prices may be strong in early September. The resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side. In the next week, the support level for SHFE Aluminum 2510 is seen at 20,600, and the resistance level is at 20,900 - 21,000 [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. 3.3 Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: Mining in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by safety and environmental inspections, while the output in Guizhou has increased significantly. The domestic bauxite output increased month - on - month in July. Guinea's state - owned mining company took over GAC's mining rights, and the supply of imported ore is expected to remain stable. The bauxite inventory in China has reached the highest level in the same period, and the supply can basically meet this year's production needs. However, there is still some political uncertainty in Guinea in September [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of August 22, China's alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96.3 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 85.78%, which has been rising since May and is currently at the highest level since 2022 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: According to Steel Union data, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.2 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 97%. Under the background of carbon neutrality, the ceiling of China's electrolytic aluminum output is controllable, and the growth rate of new global production capacity has slowed down [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,300 yuan/ton. Aluminum exports have generally rebounded since March this year and are currently at a relatively high level in recent years. The US expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on aluminum products on August 18, which has limited short - term impact on China, but the export growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to decline compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate remained stable at 50.5%. Construction profiles have not improved significantly, while orders for photovoltaic and automotive applications are relatively stable. The market is expected to operate stably in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheet, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 66.0%, and the operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.0%. The orders have improved compared with July, and the operating rates are expected to continue to rise [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises increased by 1% to 63.6%. As the power grid construction cycle restarts in September and the peak delivery season approaches, the demand for aluminum cables and wires is increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise in late August [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys remained stable at 56.6%. Some enterprises' orders increased due to trial restocking for the "Golden September and Silver October" season, but the growth is mainly concentrated in large - scale enterprises. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.0%, and it is expected to continue to decline due to the rectification of illegal tax rebates [11]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 595,000 tons, an increase of about 1% from last week and about 26% lower than the same period last year. The supply has changed little, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short term [11][17]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The inventory of aluminum rods is 119,000 tons, a decrease of about 12% from last week and about 7% higher than the same period last year. The price has dropped, and downstream enterprises have increased their inventory in anticipation of the peak season [11][17]. - **LME Aluminum**: The LME aluminum inventory has remained basically flat, and it is still at a low level since 1990. Considering the weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US and the US's expansion of aluminum product tariffs, the LME inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [11][17]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 380 yuan/ton [12][19]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton [12][19]. - **Market Expectation**: The positive domestic and international macro - environment and potential supply risks in electrolytic aluminum keep the aluminum price oscillating strongly. However, there is still significant pressure on inventory accumulation during the off - season. After the positive sentiment is digested, the aluminum price may face a risk of falling after reaching a high point, and the 21,000 yuan/ton mark remains under pressure [12]. - **Personal View**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the overall macro - environment is positive. Trump's tariff actions have affected export expectations, but the short - term impact on China is limited. Aluminum prices may be strong in early September, but the resistance at 21,000 - 21,300 will test the substantial improvement of the demand side [12]. - **Key Concerns**: The magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the inventory accumulation of domestic social stocks, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [12]. 3.4 Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of most bauxite varieties remained stable, while the price of alumina in Henan decreased slightly by 0.15%. The price of动力煤 increased by 1.29%, and the price of沪铝主力合约 decreased by 0.67% [13]. 3.5 Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 2.77% week - on - week. The inventory of alumina increased by 1.52% week - on - week. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.85% week - on - week, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 11.85% week - on - week [15]. 3.6 Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points to 60.0% week - on - week, showing a mild recovery, but the substantial improvement in demand is still limited. Some sectors have shown marginal improvement due to the expectation of the peak season, but the overall terminal demand has not fully recovered [24][25]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure remains neutral. Despite the recent inventory accumulation, the near - month contracts are at a premium to the far - month contracts, and the futures market is still relatively resistant to decline [30]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,700 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,640 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively high level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [37][38]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of overseas funds continued to rise slightly. Powell's hint of an interest rate cut at the global central bank meeting has further increased the expectation of a rate cut in September. However, the manufacturing data in Europe and the US continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely [40]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable. The net long position of financial speculative funds has been decreasing slightly since August, while some institutional positions have increased their net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July, and the net long position increased slightly this week. The market is expected to fluctuate widely, with a slightly greater upward elasticity [43].
招商期货商品期货早班车-20250821
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information was provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including basic metals, industrial products, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors such as supply - demand dynamics, seasonal patterns, and policy changes when making investment decisions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly. Supply capacity increased, and demand showed signs of improvement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The price increased. Supply capacity continued to rise, and there was an oversupply pressure. It is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - **Zinc**: The price increased. Supply increased significantly, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Lead**: The price decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, with a slight inventory build - up. Interval trading is suggested [2]. Industrial Products - **Silicon**: The price declined. Supply increased, and demand improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price dropped sharply. Supply and demand are expected to be tight from August to October. Due to large - scale outflow of long - speculating funds, the price is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The price decreased. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price rose slightly. Supply and demand are balanced with structural differentiation. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see on the single - side [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price increased. Supply and demand are moderately strong with a weakening margin. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price increased. Supply and demand are relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The price changed little. Supply may shrink in the short - term and increase in the long - term. Demand has differences. The domestic price is expected to follow the international cost - end and fluctuate strongly [6]. - **Corn**: The price fluctuated narrowly. Supply increased, and demand was weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuated strongly. International production has differences, and domestic demand showed signs of recovery. It is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The price declined. Supply is in the seasonal increase period, and demand improved. The short - term trading is difficult, and the long - term outlook is tight [7]. - **Eggs**: The price fluctuated. Supply was sufficient, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to be weak [7]. - **Hogs**: The price was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand improved. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, it is advisable to short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - **PTA**: The price was stable. PX supply is at a high level, and PTA supply is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on PX and short PTA processing fees or far - month contracts [8][9]. - **Rubber**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand was for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pull - back [9]. - **PP**: The price first fell and then rose. Supply increased, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate weakly, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9]. - **MEG**: The price was stable. Supply and demand were in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Styrene**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the long - term, short far - month contracts on rallies [9][10].
电解铝期货品种周报-20250818
Chang Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The mid - line trend of electrolytic aluminum is a large - range oscillation. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season in China and the increase in downstream operating rates, short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the weak cost side, continuous accumulation of social inventory, and the new tariff measures by Trump. It is advisable to wait and see [5][12]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum presents a dual - track pattern of "stable growth in China + overseas supplement". The monthly output in China is expected to increase year - on - year, and the output in overseas countries such as Brazil and South Africa is also expected to have a year - on - year increase of over 30% [10]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week, showing a mild recovery trend. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" may further boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: large - range oscillation. The logic is that China is about to enter the traditional consumption season with rising downstream operating rates, but the weak cost side, continuous inventory accumulation, and new tariff measures may intensify short - term fluctuations. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: Aluminum in August may be weak first and then strong. For the next week, the range of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is seen at 20300 - 20900, and short - term trading is advisable for now [7]. - This week's strategy suggestion: Due to Trump's new tariff measures, short - term fluctuations may intensify, and it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: Maintain an appropriate inventory [9]. Overall View - Bauxite market: The domestic bauxite fundamentals are not in surplus. The ore price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, and the price in the southwestern region has an upward trend. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the supply in August is tightening, but due to the high port inventory and the resumption of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage degree may be limited, and the ore price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - Alumina market: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 11255 million tons, the operating capacity was about 9570 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.64%, slightly lower than last week's 85.73%. The capacity utilization rate has been rising since May and is currently at a high level since 2022 [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum production: The supply shows a dual - track pattern. In China, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the output in countries like Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by over 30% year - on - year [10]. - Import and export: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1300 yuan/ton. The export volume of aluminum products has declined since June but is still at a relatively high level in recent years. Trump's new 50% tariff on aluminum products may lead to a slowdown in export growth in the second half of the year [10]. - Demand: - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 50.5% this week. The construction profile sector remains sluggish, and the overall operating rate is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. - Aluminum strips and foils: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 65.0%. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises increased by 0.9 percentage points to 69.3%. The operating rate of aluminum strips is expected to continue to recover in mid - and late August, and the operating rate of aluminum foil is expected to rise after September [11]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 62.6%. The operating rate will gradually rise in mid - and late August, and the industry is expected to get out of the off - season [11]. - Alloys: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 56.6%, and is expected to continue to rise to about 57% in the third week of August, but the upward space is limited. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 53.0%, and short - term pressure is expected to continue [11]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic aluminum ingots: The social inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 28% from the same period last year. There is still pressure on inventory accumulation in China due to the tariff increase by the US [11]. - Aluminum rods: The inventory is 135,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from last week and an increase of about 15% from the same period last year. The demand may still weaken [11]. - LME electrolytic aluminum inventory: It has been increasing slightly since July. Due to overseas resumption of production and weak manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - Profit: - Alumina: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The average production cost in China is about 17600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3000 yuan/ton, also the same as last week, at a relatively high level [12]. - Market expectation: It will maintain a high - level repeated pattern, focusing on weak supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and capital withdrawal pressure. Short - term is inclined to short on rallies, and long - term requires patience for the peak season [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite prices are generally stable, with no significant changes in the fundamental pattern. The price of thermal coal has been rising since July. The price of alumina has slightly declined, with high production, oversupply, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are in a narrow - range consolidation, waiting for further macro - level guidance. The alloy price has increased slightly, but the price of scrap aluminum is suppressed due to some enterprises' reduction or suspension of production [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Domestic port bauxite inventory has a slight decline. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. The aluminum rod inventory has decreased, and the demand may weaken. Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory has continued to increase, possibly due to weak overseas demand and the new position limit rule [18]. Supply and Demand Situation - Profit: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2850 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 400 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum production cost is about 17600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 3000 yuan/ton [20]. - Operating rate: The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5% this week. It is expected that the aluminum cable and aluminum strip sectors will continue to rise in late August, and the "Golden September and Silver October" may boost the demand for aluminum foil and aluminum profiles [24]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is relatively neutral, with low expectations for price increases in the second half of this year and a cooling of expectations for the first half of 2026 [28]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1640 yuan/ton, compared with - 1560 yuan/ton last week. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [34]. Market Capital Situation - LME aluminum: The net long position has slightly rebounded, mainly boosted by the expected Fed rate cut in September. However, due to the continuous decline in manufacturing data in Europe and the US, the market is more divided, and the market may fluctuate widely in the near future [37]. - SHFE electrolytic aluminum: The net long position of the main contract has continued to increase steadily. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has been declining since August, while some institutional positions have increased net long positions. The net short position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has been continuously reduced since mid - July and is now slightly net long. The market may fluctuate at a high level next week [40].
中国首个再生金属衍生品(铸造铝合金期货和期权)上市的战略意义|资本市场
清华金融评论· 2025-08-15 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The launch of the first recycled metal derivatives, specifically casting aluminum alloy futures and options, marks a significant advancement in China's green finance market, providing a new perspective for risk management and supporting the development of the circular economy [2][4][8]. Summary by Sections Launch of Recycled Metal Derivatives - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has officially listed casting aluminum alloy futures and options, filling a gap in the domestic futures market for recycled metals [2][5]. - On the first trading day, the main contract closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase from the listing price, with a total trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.01 billion yuan [5]. Industry Overview - Casting aluminum alloy, primarily made from scrap aluminum, is a key pathway for low-carbon transition, with energy consumption only 3%-5% of that of traditional electrolytic aluminum production [6]. - The carbon emissions from producing one ton of casting aluminum alloy are approximately 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, saving 3.4 tons of standard coal and 22 tons of water [6]. - China's recycled aluminum production is expected to exceed 10 million tons in 2024 and reach over 18 million tons by 2030, with the new derivatives promoting standardized development in the industry [6]. Complete Aluminum Industry Chain - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options completes the risk hedging system for the aluminum industry, covering the entire supply chain from bauxite to recycled aluminum [7]. - Companies can now use these derivatives to manage risks associated with raw material costs and product price fluctuations, enhancing the resilience of the entire aluminum industry chain [7]. Green Finance and Risk Management - The emergence of casting aluminum alloy derivatives signifies a new phase in green finance, moving beyond traditional credit and bond products to include market-based pricing and risk hedging mechanisms [8][10]. - These derivatives allow companies to lock in costs for recycled materials and manage price volatility, thus enhancing operational efficiency and competitiveness in the low-carbon economy [8][10]. Innovation in Green Financial Products - The derivatives market introduces innovative functions for green finance, transitioning from single financing tools to comprehensive risk management platforms [11]. - The development of structured financial products that combine futures with green indicators, such as carbon emissions and recycling rates, is encouraged [16]. Recommendations for Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are advised to expand their green finance product offerings and enhance competitive differentiation, particularly in the carbon market, where China's trading volume is significantly lower than that of the EU [16][18]. - Collaboration between banks and futures exchanges is essential to create a comprehensive risk management system that supports the green transition of the real economy [15][18].