电解铝 期货品种周报 2025.11.24-11.28 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中期而言，参考WIND相关数据，考虑国内供给增速收到产能天花板约束，同 时海外新增产能及欧美复产进度均较为缓慢，2026年全球供应端同比增速或 有所放缓，而需求在全球制造业复苏背景下有望维持韧性，预计2026年全球 原铝供应缺口较2025年有所扩大，中期供需格局仍偏强。不过就近期而言， 参考2000年来沪铝对22000元/吨一线上方的探索，基本伴随着供应端的巨大 扰动，年底几内亚供应预计持稳，国内铝土矿及氧化铝库存宽裕，需求端韧 性十足，但暂未见明显新需求增量，11月下旬铝价或有所反复。 2 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 近期或出现高位反复，短线多单可以考虑适当减持或者离场 避险。 未来一周主力2601合约看21000-21700区间。 本周策略建议 正常持有库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 轻仓持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 【总体观点】 | | 2025年11月第3周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 市场参与者普遍对年末几内亚供应端发运增加存在预期，另外，根据钢联数据，今年铝土矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, the global supply - side growth rate of primary aluminum may slow down in 2026 due to capacity constraints in China and slow new capacity and复产 progress overseas, while demand is expected to remain resilient, with the supply gap expanding compared to 2025. The mid - term supply - demand pattern is still strong. In the near term, the aluminum price may fluctuate in late November as there is no significant new demand increase despite sufficient supply and resilient demand [4][11]. - The aluminum market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait for the price to rise. For short - term trading, consider reducing or exiting long positions to avoid risks [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Domestic bauxite inventory has reached the same - period high, sufficient for this year's production. Although there are repeated disturbances in the mining end, the short - term impact is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of November 14, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96 million tons and a utilization rate of about 85.37%. Alumina supply and demand have been in surplus for some time, and supply flexibility is restricted. The expected increase in imported ore supply also puts downward pressure on ore prices [9]. - **Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons. The global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage, and overseas production cuts due to power shortages may reduce future supply increments [9]. - **Import and Export**: In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, slightly lower than in September, at the average level in recent years. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,700 yuan/ton, narrowing from last week's 2,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: Different aluminum product sectors have different demand situations. The aluminum profile and alloy sectors are relatively stable, while the aluminum plate, strip, and foil sectors may face a downward trend. The aluminum cable sector may see a slight increase, and the overall downstream processing industry shows a differentiated trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, basically stable compared to last week, about 10% higher than the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,500 tons, about 2% higher than last week and about 50% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory is about 1% higher than last week and about 22% lower than last year, still at a low level in recent years [10][17][18]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 22,800 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,800 yuan/ton, up from 4,400 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The overseas macro - environment is unfavorable due to uncertainties in the US economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance. The aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is strong [11]. Important Industry Price Changes - The price of bauxite is generally stable, but the market is pessimistic about the future, expecting a further decline in December. The coal price has been rising since September, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The alumina price has been falling since mid - August, and the cost support may strengthen after the dry season in the southwest [12]. Important Industry Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory has slightly increased, remaining at a high level this year. The alumina inventory has been rapidly accumulating since late May, reaching a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas is stable, while the aluminum rod inventory has increased [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing a differentiated trend. It is expected that the short - term operating rate will continue to show a differentiated pattern [26]. Futures and Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai aluminum futures is moderately weak [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,840 yuan/ton this week, up from - 2,080 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread has a moderately negative impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is near the high since April 2022. The latest net long position has slightly decreased, but the long - side has been increasing positions since June, and the short - side has been slightly increasing since October. The overall market is still strong [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week, at a high level this year. The long - and short - sides have been increasing positions since October. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased, with large internal differences. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has decreased in the past two weeks. Overall, the main funds are still bullish, but the differences are increasing [41].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon and Lithium Carbonate Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Industrial silicon futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 7,500 and 10,000 [8][9]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. As of November 7, the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9,150 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of industrial silicon was in a sideways phase, and the main force showed a strong bearish sentiment [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Industrial silicon was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [12]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [13]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [15]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.73%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [19] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: Lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range operation. The 2601 contract is expected to operate between 68,000 and 100,000 [34][35]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the spot price of lithium carbonate declined. As of November 7, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan/ton, and the market price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,750 yuan/ton. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report from Great Wall Futures showed that the daily price of lithium carbonate futures was basically in an upward channel, and the main long - position camp had a slight advantage [35]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: Lithium carbonate was in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Lithium carbonate is in a wide - range operation, with a focus on buying on dips [38]. 3. Related Data - As of April 19, 2024, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 66.03%. Seasonally, the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each sector [2][3][5]. - Different commodities have different market conditions, with some facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and varying degrees of risk. The trading strategies range from buying at support levels, waiting for buying opportunities, to short - selling or taking a wait - and - see approach [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market performance showed prices rising and then falling on Friday, with London gold reaching $4000/oz. Fundamentals included changes in key mineral lists, employment data, and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to buy at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Market performance was part of the precious metals' overall movement. Fundamentals involved inventory changes. The trading strategy is to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance was a Friday price oscillation. Fundamentals had supply tightness and macro - economic factors. The trading strategy is to wait for buying opportunities due to unclear short - term macro - drivers and poor current demand [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Market performance had the Friday closing price down 0.18%. Fundamentals included high - load production on the supply side and a slight drop in demand. The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [3]. - **Alumina**: Market performance had the Friday closing price down 0.14%. Fundamentals showed a stable supply and high - load demand from electrolytic aluminum plants. The price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker [3]. - **Metallic Silicon**: Market performance had the 01 contract up 1.71%. Fundamentals involved a decrease in furnace - opening numbers and inventory reduction. The price is expected to be in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the strategy is to wait and see [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market performance had the LC2601 up 2.24%. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to buy on dips cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Market performance had the 01 contract up 1.71%. Fundamentals involved a decline in production and inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to buy on dips with a light position [4]. - **Tin**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals included tight supply and inventory accumulation. The trading strategy is to take an oscillating view [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 10 yuan/ton. Fundamentals showed weak supply - demand and structural differentiation. The trading strategy is to wait and see and try to long the 01 contract rebar - to - iron ore ratio [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 5 yuan/ton. Fundamentals showed a marginal deterioration in supply - demand. The trading strategy is to short the 2601 contract and long the 01 contract rebar - to - iron ore ratio [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Market performance had the 2601 contract down 32 yuan/ton. Fundamentals included a decline in iron - water production and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Market performance had CBOT soybeans rising on Friday. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is that US soybeans will oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [6]. - **Corn**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals involved inventory and production expectations. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Sugar**: Market performance had ICE raw sugar down 2.01% and Zhengzhou sugar down 0.47%. Fundamentals included global supply surplus and domestic policy impacts. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Market performance had US cotton prices falling. Fundamentals included international and domestic market conditions. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13800 yuan/ton range [7]. - **Palm Oil**: Market performance had the Malaysian market falling. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is that the P contract is weak, and the structure is suitable for reverse spreads [7]. - **Eggs**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The price is expected to fall after the Double Eleven promotion [7]. - **Hogs**: Market performance was price oscillation. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [7]. - **Apples**: Market performance had the main contract down 2.14%. Fundamentals included production and inventory factors. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7][8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: Market performance had the V01 down 0.3%. Fundamentals included supply increase and demand problems. The trading strategy is to short [8]. - **PTA**: Market performance involved price changes. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to take profit on long positions and short the processing margin in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: Market performance had the RU2601 up 0.3%. Fundamentals included raw material prices and tire production. The trading strategy is to trade in a range - bound manner [9]. - **Glass**: Market performance had the FG01 down 1%. Fundamentals included production line shutdowns and inventory changes. The trading strategy is to close out previous reverse spreads [9]. - **PP**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals involved supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Market performance involved price and basis changes. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The trading strategy is to short at high prices for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Market performance was price decline. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [10]. - **Styrene**: Market performance was minor oscillation. Fundamentals included supply and demand changes. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Market performance had the sa01 up 0.3%. Fundamentals included supply - demand balance. The trading strategy is to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Zinc**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Lead**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PTA and PX**: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity, offering insights for investors to make informed decisions in the futures market. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: Yesterday, the closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.73% to 21,295 yuan/ton. The LME price was 2,904 dollars/ton. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate remained stable. With a warm domestic macro - environment, eased Sino - US trade friction, and potential overseas production cuts due to power shortages, the price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the alumina main contract rose by 2.20% yesterday. Some alumina plants resumed production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. With the spot price showing signs of stopping decline and the influence of "anti - involution" news, the main short - sellers significantly reduced their positions. It is suggested to buy call options on dips and follow the changes in the positions of the main seats [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main 01 contract closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 2.40%. Supply may decrease in the southwest in late October. Social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The high - inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: LC2601 closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5%. Supply reached a new high last week, and demand was strong in October. It is expected to maintain a shortage in the short - term. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is recommended to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts and be cautious when chasing up [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 3,090 - 3,160 yuan/ton for RB01 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 807.5 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is neutral to strong, and it is expected that the inventory accumulation will be slightly slower than the historical average. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton for I01 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,303.5 yuan/ton. Steel mill profits are deteriorating, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to mainly wait and see, with a reference range of 1,270 - 1,320 yuan/ton for JM01 [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, trading on optimistic trade expectations. Globally, high - inventory expectations remain. The domestic market is following the cost side and oscillating. Attention should be paid to tariff policy progress [5]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are weak, and the spot price is mixed. With expected new - crop production increase and cost reduction, the spot price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [5]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term Malaysian palm oil market is falling. The near - term palm oil in Malaysia is accumulating inventory, and the long - term may see seasonal production cuts. Oils and fats are weak with variety differentiation, and it is recommended to focus on the P structure for reverse spreads [5]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5,496 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. Brazil's next - season production increase is expected. If the northern hemisphere's production increase is realized, the domestic sugar price will face downward pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [5]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton futures rose. International and domestic market performances are mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy in the 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton range [5][6]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures are rising, and the spot price is stable. With sufficient supply and low vegetable prices, egg prices are expected to be low. The futures price is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Hogs**: Hog futures are oscillating narrowly, and the spot price is partially rising. With increasing supply, rising slaughter volume, and secondary fattening, hog prices are expected to repair through oscillation [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The domestic supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace, and the demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [7]. - **PVC**: V01 closed at 4,775, up 1%. The fundamentals are weak, with increased supply, high inventory, and uncertain demand. It is recommended to short [7]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA production is increasing. Polyester demand is improving, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It is recommended to go long on PX and short the PTA processing fee on rallies [7][8]. - **Rubber**: RU2601 closed at 15,625 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. With a warm macro - environment, the market confidence is boosted. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US summit [8]. - **Glass**: FG01 closed at 1,128, up 1.6%. The supply is high, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to do reverse spreads [8]. - **PP**: The PP main contract oscillated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the peak season but with some demand overdraft. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG East China spot price is 4,152 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. The supply and demand contradictions are large. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **Soda Ash**: SA01 closed at 1,260, up 1.1%. The supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, with a recommendation to buy at support levels for gold and reduce long positions in silver [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, while the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. - Zinc is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, and lead is recommended to be bought on pullbacks [2][3]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to be in short supply in the short - term, with prices volatile and bullish, and it is necessary to closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. - Polysilicon's 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract and the iron ore 2605 contract, and to wait and see for coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are short - term bullish, corn is expected to be volatile and bearish, oils and fats are bearish, sugar is recommended to be short - sold in the futures market and sell call options, cotton is advisable to wait and see, eggs are expected to be range - bound, pigs are expected to recover, and apples are advisable to wait and see [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE and PP are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, PVC is recommended to be short - sold or in a reverse spread, PTA is recommended to be long - bought in the medium - term and short - sold for processing fees in the long - term, rubber is expected to be range - bound, glass is recommended to be in a reverse spread, MEG is recommended to be short - sold at high prices, styrene is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term, and soda ash is advisable to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: International gold priced in London gold fell below the $4000 support on Monday [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Trump extended the US - Mexico trade negotiation period, and there were multiple international trade and policy events. Gold and silver inventories in various markets changed, and ETF holdings decreased [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in October. It is recommended to buy gold at support levels and reduce long positions in silver [1]. Basic Metals Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.64% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the alumina main contract rose 0.68% to 2829 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate was stable. Some alumina plants resumed production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the alumina price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract fell 0.02% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and social inventories increased slightly [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: The mine supply was abundant, smelting profits were high, and consumption was flat [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai lead 2511 contract fell 0.62% to 17,525 yuan/ton, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply became generally tight, and there was still rigid demand from lead - acid batteries [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 0.50% to 8965 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease in the future, and demand was relatively stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2601 rose 2.9% to 81,900 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand was strong, with expected inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, and closely monitor the reduction of warehouse receipts [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 01 contract rose 4.20% to 54,500 yuan/ton, with increased positions and decreased warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply might decrease, demand was relatively stable, and the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation growth was under pressure [3][4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 11 - contract has a price bottom support at 48,000 yuan, and the 12 - contract and later contracts are expected to trade in the range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan, with a suggestion to buy on dips [3][4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The rebar 2601 contract rose to 3111 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Building material inventories decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited but with significant structural differentiation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract, and the RB01 reference range is 3070 - 3140 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose to 790.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was in line with the seasonal pattern, and demand was relatively strong, with expected slow inventory accumulation [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, and the I01 reference range is 780 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal 2601 contract rose to 1262 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side inventories were differentiated, and there was an expected production reduction [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and the JM01 reference range is 1230 - 1270 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans had a slight reduction in production, and South America had an expected increase in production. Demand was differentiated [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are short - term bullish, and domestic soybeans are range - bound, paying attention to tariff policies [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices were weak, and spot prices fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Corn quality in North China was damaged, and new grain was about to be listed, with weak downstream demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Malaysian palm oil production increased, and exports decreased, with inventory accumulation in the near term [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats are bearish, and the P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose 0.2% to 5444 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic sugar production is uncertain. The market may face downward pressure if northern hemisphere production increases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures prices fluctuated, and Zhengzhou cotton was range - bound [6]. - **Fundamentals**: US cotton quality was good, and Vietnam's textile exports increased. Domestic cotton acquisition in northern Xinjiang was coming to an end [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Egg prices were low, demand increased, but supply was sufficient, and vegetable prices dragged down egg prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be range - bound [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices continued to rebound, and spot prices rose [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Pig supply increased, slaughter volume recovered, and secondary fattening entered the market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to recover [7]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 0.97% to 8936 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Apple prices in some regions rose, the overall quality was poor, and inventory was low [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly, and the import window was closed [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand improved in the agricultural film season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V01 rose 0.6% to 4747 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or in a reverse spread [8]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX CFR China price was 821 dollars/ton, and PTA spot price was 4505 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply was high, PTA production increased, and polyester demand improved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - buy in the medium - term and short - sell for processing fees in the long - term [9]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: RU2601 closed at 15380 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Raw material prices were supportive, and inventory decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound in the short - term with strong support at the bottom [9]. Glass - **Market Performance**: FG01 closed flat at 1095 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, demand was weak, and inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Reverse spread [9]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased, and demand improved during the peak season but was affected by previous subsidies [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [9]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG spot price was 4183 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 84 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply was high, and inventory was expected to accumulate [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high prices [10]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand contradictions were large, and demand was affected by previous subsidies [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile and bearish in the short - term, and bearish in the long - term, with suggestions to short - sell at high prices or in a reverse spread [10]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: SA01 rose 1.3% to 1247 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand were balanced, and inventory increased slightly [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [3][10] Core Viewpoints - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market will remain in a tight - balance state in the fourth quarter, with low domestic and foreign visible inventories and anti - involution factors. The core driver of aluminum prices remains strong. Recently, the Sino - US tariff confrontation has eased, and there is an expected Fed rate cut at the end of the month, so the market at the end of the month should be treated bullishly [4][10] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show differentiation. While the overall short - term opening rate will continue the stable trend [9][23] - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted, coal prices have rebounded, and alumina prices have continued to decline in a volatile manner since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] Detailed Summaries by Catalog Overall Situation - The Guinea rainy - season impact on bauxite is weakening, with increased ore shipments and higher mine复产 expectations. The domestic bauxite supply is constrained by policies. The alumina production capacity is increasing, and the over - supply is widening. The growth of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited in the fourth quarter [8] - The opening rates of different downstream aluminum products vary. The overall short - term opening rate of the downstream processing industry will remain stable [9][23][24] - The current profit of alumina is about 10 yuan/ton, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum is about 4000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively high level [10][18] - The market is affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate decision. Any positive or negative signals will strongly affect the sentiment of global risk assets [10] Price Changes - The price of bauxite has slightly adjusted. Coal prices have rebounded due to safety inspections and early heating starts. Alumina prices have continued to decline since mid - August due to over - capacity [11] - The prices of most aluminum - related products have increased week - on - week, such as the Shanghai Aluminum main - contract closing price, electrolytic aluminum A00, and aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 [11] Inventory Changes - The port inventory of imported bauxite has decreased. The alumina inventory has continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory is at a low level and may continue to be sorted at a low level [14][16] Supply and Demand - The overall opening rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing has decreased slightly, showing the characteristics of "stable in the peak season and differentiated internally" [23] - The short - term opening rate of primary aluminum alloy will continue to rise steadily; the demand for aluminum strip is expected to weaken; the aluminum cable high - voltage department has guaranteed orders but limited new growth; automotive profiles are relatively stable, while construction profiles are sluggish, and photovoltaic profiles face production cuts; some aluminum foil orders have weakened; and the resilience of recycled aluminum orders still exists [23] Futures Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is neutral [26] Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2180 yuan/ton, and the current spread has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [33][34] Market Funds - The net long position of LME aluminum continues to rise and is near the high since April 2022. The overall market is still treated bullishly [36] - The net long position of the SHFE electrolytic aluminum remains stable at a recent high. The main funds are slightly bullish [39]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish Oscillation" rating for the electrolytic aluminum industry [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The electrolytic aluminum market in China will remain in a tight - balanced state in the fourth quarter, and the domestic and foreign visible inventories are at historically low levels. However, Sino - US trade confrontation has cast a shadow over domestic demand. Recently, the market may continue the high - level oscillation pattern, with the AI2512 range expected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 [5][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to show a bullish oscillation. The core drivers of aluminum prices remain strong due to the tight - balanced state of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the fourth quarter, low visible inventories at home and abroad, and anti - involution. But Sino - US trade confrontation affects domestic demand. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions below 20,000 [5] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategies - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: Not mentioned in detail - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. Consider grid trading based on the recent fluctuation range. If the price reaches 21,300 during the week, appropriate short - term long positions can be added [8] - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Maintain an appropriate inventory. If the price is below 20,000 yuan, consider replenishing the inventory [9] 3.3 Overall Viewpoints Supply - **Bauxite Market**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is weakening, and the ore shipment volume is increasing. The supply of imported ore is expected to be abundant in the fourth quarter. Domestic mine governance policies will restrict domestic ore supply in the long term, and the supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the fourth quarter [10] - **Alumina Market**: As of October 17, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 96.8 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 86.22%. Alumina plants are still profitable, and production will continue to increase, with the surplus expanding [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. The annual net increase in production is expected to be less than 0.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, production may remain high but with limited growth [10] - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 2,340 yuan/ton. The export volume of unforged aluminum products decreased slightly in August and September, and the intensifying Sino - US trade confrontation may put pressure on exports from November to December [10] Demand - **Aluminum Profiles**: The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.5%. The photovoltaic profiles were significantly affected by the reduction in downstream component factory production. The operating rate is expected to be stable but weak in the short term [11] - **Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 68.0%, and is expected to decline gradually. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 72.3%, but may weaken due to weakening demand [11] - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate remained stable at 64%, and is expected to remain weakly stable [11] - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased by 0.4 percentage points to 58.4%, and is expected to continue to be stable. The operating rate of recycled aluminum leading enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 58.6%, and is expected to decline slightly in October [11] Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from last week and about 3% from the same period last year. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots is limited. The inventory of aluminum rods was 143,100 tons, an increase of about 2% from last week and about 8% from the same period last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 3% from last week and about 36% from the same period last year, and is expected to remain low [11][17] Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,860 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 20 yuan/ton [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,000 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,800 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Expectation**: The market is likely to continue the high - level bullish oscillation at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream's willingness to chase high prices is insufficient after "Silver October" is half over. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling [12] 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of bauxite remained stable overall. The price of alumina continued to decline in an oscillatory manner. The price of thermal coal increased due to safety inspections and early heating in the north. The prices of electrolytic aluminum and alloys were adjusted to some extent [13][14] 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The inventory of imported bauxite at domestic ports increased slightly, and the supply is abundant. The overall inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased. The LME aluminum inventory decreased [15][17] 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62.5%. The production of primary aluminum alloys was stable, while the procurement of aluminum plate and strip enterprises was cautious. The aluminum cable and wire industry was suppressed by multiple factors. The demand for aluminum profiles was weak, and the export of aluminum foil was affected by sanctions. The demand for recycled aluminum was weak [25] 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai aluminum is weak [31] 3.8 Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 was about - 2,160 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at a relatively low level in recent years and has a moderately positive impact on electrolytic aluminum [38][39] 3.9 Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position continued to rise and is near the high level since April 2022. The long - position camp has been increasing positions since June, and the short - position camp has been on the sidelines since October [41] - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract increased slightly. The long - position camp increased positions slightly, and the short - position camp remained stable. The net long position of funds mainly for financial speculation increased slightly [44]