1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the certainty of the biomass diesel policy is increasing, which has led to the strong upward trend of US soybean oil. If China purchases US soybeans as negotiated in 2026 and the US increases the blending volume of biomass diesel, the US soybean futures price will be bullish or even rise. The rising RIN market price in the US will boost the price of US soybean oil [1][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Biomass Diesel Policy and Production - The EPA proposed renewable obligation volumes from 2023 - 2027, with the biomass diesel volume increasing from 4.51 billion RINs in 2023 to 7.5 billion RINs in 2027. The Trump administration is considering a biomass diesel usage range of 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, while the proposed usage is 5.6 billion gallons [5]. - Starting from 2026, the US has become a net exporter of biomass diesel. In 2026, the consumption of biodiesel and renewable diesel was 14.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33%, or 3.6 million tons. In 2027, the production was 18.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, or 2.2 million tons. The consumption was 16.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14%, or 2.1 million tons [10]. 3.2 US Soybean Balance Sheet - China plans to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans from the US annually for the next three years, with a total of 87 million tons in three years. Based on a 53% proportion, the US soybean export volume in the 26/27 market year is estimated to be 1.69 billion bushels [18]. - In 2026, the total sown area of 8 major field crops in the US will slightly decrease to 247.55 million acres, a decrease of about 0.37% compared to 2025. The soybean sown area will increase to 85 million acres, a year - on - year increase of about 4.78%. The 25/26 global soybean yield per unit area reached a record high, and the US soybean yield per unit area is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre in 26/27 [20]. - The US soybean crushing industry has been expanding, with the actual domestic capacity increasing from about 2.23 billion bushels/year in early 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels/year in early 2025, a growth of 14%. There are still expansion plans until 2030. The soybean crushing volume in 26/27 is estimated to be 2.734 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [20][21]. 3.3 Price and Subsidy - The cost of US soybeans in 2026 is estimated to be between 1279 - 1339 cents/bushel [25]. - The target subsidy price of the US Price Loss Coverage in 2026 is expected to be 1171 cents/bushel, and the benchmark price of the Agriculture Risk Coverage - CO is expected to be 1076 cents/bushel. The US soybean policy direct subsidy and insurance price in 2026 are important reference prices for CBOT soybeans [26]. - Under a short - term economic assistance program, US soybean farmers will receive a subsidy of 30.88 dollars/acre, equivalent to 58 cents/bushel based on a yield of 53 bushels/acre [27]. 3.4 Relationship between RIN and US Soybean Oil Price - As the US RIN market price rises, the profit of producing renewable diesel from US soybean oil improves, which boosts the US soybean oil price. After the profit is restored, it is beneficial for the US soybean oil price to rise [28]. - Assuming the US fuel price is 2.2 dollars/gallon and the profit of producing renewable diesel from soybean oil is 1 dollar/gallon, when the RIN price is 1.23 dollars/gallon, the US soybean oil price is reasonably between 51 - 52 cents/pound; when the RIN price is 1.4 dollars/gallon, the US soybean oil price is reasonably between 54 - 55 cents/pound; when the RIN price is 1.5 dollars/gallon, the US soybean oil price is reasonably between 56 - 57 cents/pound; when the RIN price is 1.8 dollars/gallon, the US soybean oil price is reasonably between 63 - 64 cents/pound [28][30].