生物质柴油

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专题报告:美国生物柴油政策利多,美豆油大涨
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 12:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which is unexpectedly bullish. The total demand for raw materials is expected to grow in the next two years [20]. - There is a price premium for North American domestic raw materials over overseas raw materials in producing renewable diesel. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The bottom of the US soybean oil price is relatively stable, but there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [20]. - Due to the increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies for domestic and foreign raw materials, North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil will be used for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is more elastic [21]. - The US is expected to increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Introduction - On June 13, 2025, the US EPA issued a proposed rule for the RFS from 2026 - 2027, which led to a sharp rise in US soybean oil prices. A virtual public hearing will be held on July 8, 2025, and an additional meeting may be held on July 9, 2025 [2]. - The policy aims to provide market certainty for producers, offer lower oil prices for consumers, support the US biofuel industry, and enhance energy security and employment [3]. - The main contents of the policy include setting strong growth targets for major renewable fuels, prioritizing the US by reducing the value of foreign renewable fuels and raw materials, and canceling electricity as a qualified renewable fuel to achieve the goal of canceling the EV mandate [3]. Policy Details - The EPA proposed to set the total RV0 for 2026 at 24.02 billion RINs, an almost 8% increase from 2025, and 24.46 billion RINs for 2027, a nearly 2% increase from the previous year [5]. - The obligated quantities of biomass diesel for 2026 and 2027 are set at 5.61 billion gallons and 5.86 billion gallons respectively, exceeding market expectations [6]. - The proposed policy will increase the production of US biomass diesel, raise the operating rate, and increase the demand for raw materials [6]. Impact on Raw Material Prices and Demand - North American domestic raw materials for renewable diesel have a premium of about 10 cents per pound (about $220 per ton) over overseas raw materials. The premium is dynamic and may widen if the RIN price rises. The US soybean oil price is more volatile, and there is a risk of a 10% - 20% upward fluctuation in the long - term. The demand from small refineries is uncertain [10]. - The increasing biomass diesel obligation and differential subsidies will lead to the use of North American soybean oil and rapeseed oil for biomass diesel production, while overseas raw materials will be used in the food and oleochemical markets. The price of raw materials for biomass diesel is higher than that in other industries [11]. - Compared with 2024, the total demand for biomass diesel in 2026 is flat, and it increases in 2027. The global demand for vegetable oil is expected to increase, with North America leading the growth [13][14]. - The US may increase domestic soybean crushing and reduce soybean exports without increasing the soybean planting area. The USDA expects the 2025/26 soybean crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels (67.76 million tons), a 2.8% increase year - on - year. The domestic soybean crushing capacity has increased, and there is a probability of further increase by 2030. This may affect China's soybean imports, and the CBOT soybean price will be supported [18][22].
再评估美国生物质柴油原料需求增量的问题
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 10:04
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for biomass diesel in the US shows an increasing trend, with stable demand in the early stage and growth in the later stage. From 2026 to 2027, compared with 2024, the demand will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively, and the total raw material demand will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively [1][8] - The growth in demand for biomass diesel will lead to an increase in the use of North American rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the North American market will be stronger than overseas markets [1][2] - The actual production performance needs to be monitored to dynamically evaluate the impact of RIN obligations set by the EPA for 2026 and 2027 [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Biomass Diesel Obligation and Demand Trends - The biomass diesel obligation volumes in 2026 and 2027 are 5610 and 5860 million gallons respectively. Compared with the 4952 million gallons (domestic production + net imports) in 2024, they will increase by 13.28% and 18.33% respectively [8] - The total raw material demand in 2026 and 2027 will increase by 232 and 320 million tons respectively compared with 2024 [8] 2. Raw Material Sources and Substitution - In 2024, vegetable oils were mainly sourced from North American local raw materials, while animal fats and yellow greases also had raw materials from other regions. The total raw materials from other regions for beef tallow and yellow greases were 286 million tons [1][2] - Assuming that non - North American and imported raw materials are replaced by North American local raw materials, the demand in 2024 is estimated to be 319 million tons, accounting for nearly 40% of the edible demand [7] 3. Import and Export of Biomass Diesel and Raw Material Conversion - In 2024, the net imports of biodiesel + renewable diesel in the US converted into total raw materials were 33 million tons [5] - The net imports of biodiesel and renewable diesel in 2024 were 89 and - 55 million tons respectively, with a total net import of 33 million tons [5] 4. Consumption of Vegetable Oils - The industrial and edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the US from 2022/2023 to 2025/2026 is provided, and the total edible consumption of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is in the range of 8406 - 8669 million tons [8]