Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the short - term difficulty in easing Middle - East conflicts, international oil prices will remain high in the long term. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan further tightens palm oil supply, providing long - term support for both domestic and international palm oil markets. Hold long positions in palm oil and suggest narrowing the soybean spread [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's B50 Plan - On March 30, the Indonesian President announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel would be increased from 40% to 50%, causing the main contract of Malaysian palm oil to rise by 3.2%, and the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange to close with certain changes [7] - As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia has long relied on imported diesel. Since 2023, the government has continuously increased the biodiesel blending ratio from B35 to B40 and aims for B50 to enhance energy security, save foreign exchange, and digest excess palm oil inventory [7] - By 2026, about 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) will be needed for B50 production, and the total demand for palm - based biofuels will reach about 18 - 20.1 billion liters [7] Situation of US Soybean Oil - The positive factors for US soybean oil are exhausted. After the bio - diesel plan was implemented, the price of US soybean oil rose from 48 - 70 cents, a 30% increase. Capital has been laying out long positions for more than four months, with an obvious demand for profit - taking [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the long - term high international oil prices caused by the short - term irreconcilable Middle East conflicts and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 program, the supply of palm oil will be further tightened, which will provide long - term support for both domestic and foreign palm oil markets. It is recommended to hold long positions in palm oil and shrink the soybean price spread in arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Indonesia's B50 Policy - On March 30, the Indonesian president announced that the mixing ratio of palm oil and diesel would be increased from 40% to 50%, causing the main contract of Malaysian palm oil to rise by 3.2% and the main contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange to rise by 1.66% [7][3]. - As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia has long relied on imported diesel. To enhance energy security, save foreign exchange, and digest excess palm oil inventory, the government has continuously increased the biodiesel blending ratio since 2023, aiming for B50 (50%) [7]. - In 2026, about 5.3 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) will be needed for B50 production, and the total demand for palm - based biofuels will reach about 18 - 20.1 billion liters [7]. Situation of US Soybean Oil - The positive factors for US soybean oil are exhausted after the implementation of the biodiesel plan. US soybean oil has risen from 48 - 70 cents, a 30% increase. Capital has been laying out long - positions for more than four months, and there is an obvious demand for profit - taking [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the commodity market amidst ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly focusing on oil and its derivatives, while highlighting the potential investment opportunities and risks associated with these changes [3][4][10]. Group 1: Oil Market Strategy - The primary strategy suggested is to "go long on oil (and energy) while shorting base metals," based on the differentiated pricing of the same shock in the market [4]. - The current geopolitical tensions have led to a significant drop in risk appetite, which is impacting previously inflated growth narratives supported by factors like AI capital expenditure [4]. - High oil prices are expected to elevate global inflation and interest rate expectations, suppressing overall demand and manufacturing activity [4]. - The sustainability of this trading position is highly dependent on the evolution of the conflict, with market expectations potentially underestimating the duration of the conflict [4]. Group 2: Broader Commodity Market Implications - The article raises the question of whether commodities are pricing in risk appetite or balance sheet concerns, which could lead to a rapid shift in market sentiment towards fears of a global recession [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflict is creating independent trend opportunities in agricultural sectors, particularly driven by U.S. biodiesel policies that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil consumption by over 30% by 2026 [6][7]. - The disruption in the international fertilizer supply chain, especially nitrogen fertilizers, is contributing to rising food prices, providing inflationary support for global grain prices [7]. Group 3: Japan's Economic Vulnerability - Japan's low energy self-sufficiency and high dependence on Middle Eastern oil make it particularly vulnerable to geopolitical events that could structurally raise oil prices [8][9]. - The conflict places Japan in a challenging "policy trilemma," where it must balance combating inflation, maintaining government bond market stability, and preventing a collapse of the yen [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus in the oil market has shifted from initial emotional shocks to precise calculations regarding the duration of the conflict and real supply shortages [10]. - The article outlines two extreme scenarios: a prolonged conflict leading to a significant supply gap, or a sudden de-escalation that would not synchronize with the recovery of oil logistics and production [11]. - Recent structural changes in the market, such as the expansion of domestic crude oil futures delivery, aim to mitigate risks associated with contract delivery and potential defaults [12]. - The current commodity market presents clear trading signals, with a recommendation to hedge tail risks through out-of-the-money call options on oil, while also considering long positions in the oil and chemical processing sectors once geopolitical tensions ease [12].

Group 1: RVO Settings and Overall Trends - The 2026 - 2027 RFS final rule unifies the RVO measurement of BBD from "physical gallons" to "RINs", aligning with other fuel categories and simplifying compliance [1][2] - The total RVO in 2026 - 2027 reaches 26.81 and 27.02 billion RIN respectively, with an increase of over 20% compared to 2025, mainly driven by biomass - based diesel and advanced biofuels [2][3] - Cellulose biofuel RVO shows steady growth, reaching 1.36 and 1.43 billion RIN in 2026 - 2027 from 1.21 billion RIN in 2025, but faces terminal demand constraints [3] - The basic RVO of corn ethanol remains stable at 15 billion gallons, reducing the impact on the grain market [3] - The 70% re - distribution of SRE quotas from 2023 - 2025 to 2026 - 2027 is finalized, filling the compliance gap and stabilizing the RIN market [4][14] Group 2: Biomass - Based Diesel Analysis - In 2026, 9.07 billion RIN of biomass - based diesel is equivalent to 5.5 billion gallons, and in 2027, 9.2 billion RIN is equivalent to 6.1 billion gallons, meeting market expectations [2][5][6] - The production of biodiesel and renewable diesel is expected to be 40.7 billion gallons in 2025, 49.9 billion gallons in 2026, and 58.9 billion gallons in 2027. EIA may adjust the balance sheet [6] - The biomass - based diesel volume will increase by 35.1% in 2026 compared to 2025 and 10.9% in 2027 compared to 2026 [6] - North American raw materials (US soybean oil, Canadian canola oil, Mexican UCO) will benefit from the 45Z tax credit policy, while non - North American raw materials will be excluded from the US market [7] - The 45Z tax credit creates price differences between different raw materials. The EPA expects the supply of US soybean oil to meet the growing demand through various means, and the development of US biodiesel will drive global vegetable oil demand [8][9] - The EPA estimates that the price of US soybean oil will be 66 - 68 cents/lb in 2026 - 2027, with a risk of rising to 86 - 90 cents/lb in a high - price scenario [9] Group 3: Policy Adjustments - The EPA delays the effective date of the new equivalent values for renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and renewable naphtha to January 1, 2027 [10][11] - The Import RIN Reduction (IRR) policy is postponed to 2028 and later to avoid market supply shocks and rising refined oil prices, which is expected to benefit trade and raw material demand in the US, Canada, and Mexico [12] - Renewable electricity (eRINs) is removed from the list of eligible renewable fuels in the RFS program to strengthen the core position of liquid biofuels [13] - RIN generation rules are tightened, requiring a strict link between RIN generation and transportation use and adding importer joint - liability clauses [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is expected to be generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - This week, the price of US soybeans fluctuated sideways, with a weekly decline of 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel. US soybean oil prices rose, while US soybean meal prices fell [1]. - As of March 21, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 67.7%, slower than 76.1% in the same period last year but slightly faster than the five - year average. Future weather in Brazil and Argentina is generally favorable for soybean growth and harvest [2]. 3.2 Market Concerns - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle East situation eases, another visit is expected [3]. - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to planting: It will directly increase the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. If all prices increase by 30%, the cost of US soybeans will increase by about 70 cents, and that of Brazilian soybeans will increase by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [3]. - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: As the harvest in Brazil accelerates and precipitation in Argentina improves, the supply pressure of spot soybeans will increase [3]. 3.3 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall view**: There is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. The market is generally volatile and slightly bullish, with a trading range of 1050 - 1250 cents per bushel [5]. - **Short - side logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration's support for the biodiesel addition policy may weaken; the harvest progress in Brazil is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, resulting in high global spot pressure; the weather in Argentina has improved, and the previously damaged yield per unit area is expected to recover [5]. - **Long - side logic**: If Trump visits China, China is expected to purchase an additional 8 million tons of soybeans in the current crop year; the US biodiesel policy is beneficial to soybean consumption; rising crude oil prices support costs [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Market Prices - As of March 27, 2026, the price of the continuous US soybean futures contract fell 2 cents per bushel to 1159.25 cents per bushel; the continuous US soybean meal futures contract fell 12.7 dollars per short ton to 315.3 dollars per short ton; the continuous US soybean oil futures contract rose 1.9 cents per pound to 67.41 cents per pound [5]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 3.25 cents per bushel to 1166.25 cents per bushel compared with the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 8.75 cents per bushel to 1240.75 cents per bushel compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 26, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 2.62 reais per bag to 103.37 reais per bag compared with the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port rose 0.63 reais per bag to 130.01 reais per bag compared with the previous week [6]. - As of March 25, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment rose 6 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton; the price for June shipment rose 4 dollars per ton to 418 dollars per ton [6]. 3.5 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - In Brazil, precipitation in the next week will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean harvest and transportation [20]. - In Argentina, precipitation in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions in the next two weeks will be good for soybean growth, while precipitation in the central and northern regions will be slightly less. Overall, the weather for the final growth of soybeans is acceptable, and the average yield per unit area is expected to recover to some extent [20]. 3.6 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.3442 million tons, compared with 0.9065 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 0.6689 million tons, compared with 0.2982 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 27,000 tons, compared with 6,600 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 0.6649 million tons, compared with 0.5458 million tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 8.5241 million tons have been shipped, and 3.47 million tons remain unshipped [39]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [39]. 3.7 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 25, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 203,200 contracts, a decrease of 10,500 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 117,100 contracts, a decrease of 1,200 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 107,900 contracts, an increase of 24,000 contracts from the previous week [44]. - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared with the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. If calculated based on the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The South American soybean harvest is expected to be bountiful, so there is no basis for a bull market. However, demand is expected to improve, limiting the downside. Overall, the market is expected to be slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Focus - The situation of mutual visits between Chinese and US leaders: Trump's visit to China has been postponed, but if the Middle - East situation eases, another visit may be arranged [2] - The transmission of rising crude oil prices to soybean planting: It directly increases the costs of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. A 30% price increase in these three items would raise US soybean costs by about 70 cents and Brazilian soybean costs by 102 cents. Higher fertilizer prices may also prompt some farmers to switch from corn to soybeans [2] - The release rhythm of South American supply pressure: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and Argentina's precipitation has improved, increasing the supply pressure of spot soybeans in the future [2] - The biodiesel policy: The regulations of the EPA's biodiesel policy will affect the market [2] 3.2 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - Overall view: Slightly bullish in a range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [6] - Short - side logic: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration may reduce support for the biodiesel addition policy; Brazil's harvest progress is accelerating, and the shipping speed has basically returned to normal, increasing global spot pressure; Argentina's weather has improved, which may repair the previously damaged yield [7] - Long - side logic: If Trump visits China, it is expected that an additional 8 million tons of soybeans will be purchased in the current crop year; Argentina's early drought may lead to a reduction in yield; Rising crude oil prices support costs [10] 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the price of the US soybean futures continuous contract fell 64 cents per bushel to 1161.25 cents per bushel; the US soybean meal futures continuous contract rose $5.3 per short ton to $328 per short ton; the US soybean oil futures continuous contract fell 1.93 cents per pound to 65.51 cents per pound [9] - As of March 19, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois decreased by 56.5 cents per bushel to 1163 cents per bushel compared to the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port decreased by 63.25 cents per bushel to 1232 cents per bushel compared to the previous week [9] - As of March 19, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, decreased by 1.71 reais per bag to 100.75 reais per bag compared to the previous week; the spot price at the Paranagua port decreased by 1.49 reais per bag to 129.38 reais per bag compared to the previous week [11] - As of March 18, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for May shipment decreased by $22 per ton to $412 per ton; the price for June shipment decreased by $26 per ton to $414 per ton [11] 3.4 Main Producing Area Weather Conditions - Brazil: In the next week, precipitation will be mainly concentrated in the northern and western regions, with slightly less precipitation in the central and southern regions. In the next two weeks, precipitation will still be concentrated in the north and west. Overall, the precipitation in the next two weeks is beneficial for Brazilian soybeans, as less precipitation in the central region is conducive to harvesting and transportation, and the return of precipitation in the south is beneficial for repairing the previously damaged yield [14] - Argentina: Precipitation will be good in the next two weeks, especially in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba production areas, which is beneficial for soybean growth [15] 3.5 US Soybean Demand - As of the week of March 13, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 906,500 tons, down from 995,300 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the current crop year were 298,200 tons, down from 456,700 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 6,600 tons, down from 9,500 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 545,800 tons, up from 411,400 tons in the previous week. Of the 12 million tons of US soybeans purchased by China, 7.85 million tons have been shipped, and 4.15 million tons remain unshipped [27] - The domestic soybean crushing volume in the US in February was 208.78 million bushels, the highest level for the same period in history, indicating strong domestic demand [28] 3.6 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - As of March 17, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 213,700 contracts, a decrease of 17,100 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 118,400 contracts, an increase of 18,600 contracts from the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 83,800 contracts, a decrease of 3,200 contracts from the previous week. The net long positions in soybeans decreased significantly [33] - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US is still high, and the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared to the previous year. Before the rise in crude oil prices, the estimated planting cost in the US was 1200 - 1250 cents per bushel, and in Brazil, it was 950 - 1000 cents per bushel. With the current energy cost, it is expected to increase by 5 - 10% on this basis [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rose 5.18% last week, with the energy and chemical sector leading the gain at 9.76%, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. Due to uncertainties in war and the global economic outlook, the energy price fluctuates sharply, and the dollar is strong. The commodity market faces correction pressure and may fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 5.18% last week. The energy and chemical sector led the gain at 9.76%, followed by the agricultural and black sectors with increases of 2.72% and 2.69% respectively. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined by 0.11% and 1.52% respectively. The top - rising varieties were fuel oil, PTA, and crude oil, with increases of 19.08%, 14.23%, and 12.94% respectively. The top - falling varieties were tin, apple, and silver, with decreases of 4.97%, 3.08%, and 2.83% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with the energy and chemical and oilseed sectors having sharp fluctuations, while the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors mainly saw volatility decline. The overall market scale increased significantly last week, with the energy and chemical sector attracting over 40 billion yuan, and only the black sector having a small net outflow of funds [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors 3.2.1 Precious Metals - The unadjusted core CPI annual rate in the US in February was 2.5%, unchanged from the previous month, in line with market expectations. The sector has been suppressed by the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and continues to oscillate at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decisions of central banks including the Fed this week [2]. 3.2.2 Non - ferrous Metals - The market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the strong US dollar index has put pressure on the sector. The manufacturing PMI in the Northern Hemisphere in February was stable, indicating that the market may enter the peak season more quickly. After the price decline, the downstream spot procurement has improved, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory still put pressure on the sector [2]. 3.2.3 Black Metals - The apparent demand for rebar continued to pick up week - on - week, production increased synchronously, and inventory accumulation slowed down significantly, basically reaching an inflection point. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and the molten iron output dropped significantly. After the conference, production will resume quickly, but the poor steel mill profits still limit the recovery space. For raw materials, the domestic arrival volume of iron ore decreased significantly, and the rising oil price provided phased cost support. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a premium to Mongolian coal. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, but the suppression was slightly weak. The sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.2.4 Energy - Last week, IEA member countries decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, the largest scale in history. However, with the Holmuoz Strait still unable to fully resume opening, resulting in a daily oil transportation gap of over 10 million barrels, the market's bullish sentiment continued to heat up. EIA weekly data showed that crude oil inventory increased more than expected, but gasoline and distillate inventories unexpectedly declined, indicating that the market is worried that the war will disrupt global trade and drive up the demand for refined oil. Oil prices are expected to remain high before the strait resumes safe passage [3]. 3.2.5 Chemicals - Since the conflict broke out, the futures prices of crude oil and many downstream oil - chemical products have risen significantly. The fundamentals of asphalt have improved marginally recently. The planned production volume of local refineries is at a low level in the same period in recent years, and it may be relatively strong under the release of the catch - up increase momentum. The import of methanol is expected to continue to tighten. The phased decline in domestic supply and the recovery of demand may keep it running strongly. For polyester, the terminal is mainly digesting inventory, and polyester filament inventory has increased. The high cost affects the negotiation of terminal orders, and the downstream recovery may slow down, with negative feedback pressure on the market [3]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products - Over the weekend, Brazil loosened its soybean export inspection policy to some extent. Some large international grain trading companies have resumed export shipments to China. The market is worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and the prices of US soybeans, US soybean oil, and soybean meal have all declined. Under the tense energy situation, the marginal demand for biodiesel has improved. Indonesia has released policy expectations and may restrict the export of palm oil due to the tense energy situation. The oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term, and palm oil may be relatively strong [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around - 0.73%, with a total scale of 34.5334 billion yuan and a 1.61% increase in share. The energy and chemical ETF (such as the Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a 14.24% weekly return, with a scale of 3.537 billion yuan and a 5.28% increase in share. The soybean meal ETF (such as the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a 7.74% weekly return, with a scale of 3.062 billion yuan and a 0.42% increase in share. The non - ferrous ETF (such as the Dacheng Non - ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a 0.10% weekly return, with a scale of 8.37 billion yuan and a 1.36% decrease in share. The silver fund (such as the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a 2.15% weekly return, with a scale of 10.447 billion yuan and no change in share [37].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the agricultural commodities sector, particularly focusing on the dynamics of various agricultural products such as natural rubber, palm oil, and soybean oil, amidst geopolitical tensions and market shifts. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Shift in Commodity Price Drivers**: The underlying logic of commodity prices has shifted from "global integration" to "geopolitical disturbances," with price transmission now driven by supply-side expectations rather than demand [1][2][3]. 2. **Agricultural Sector Cycle**: The commodity cycle has entered the agricultural phase, with expectations that equity performance in this sector will lead spot prices [1][8]. 3. **Natural Rubber Supply Gap**: A significant supply gap in natural rubber is anticipated to emerge between 2026 and 2028, with global production capacity declining by 2% annually due to aging trees [1][13]. 4. **Palm Oil Price Drivers**: The palm oil market is influenced by Indonesia's B50 policy expectations and geopolitical conflicts, which are driving up diesel prices and tightening supply expectations [1][20]. 5. **Soybean Oil Demand Surge**: The revision of the 45G subsidy policy in the U.S. is expected to increase soybean oil demand significantly, with a projected 60% year-on-year increase in biodiesel blending targets by 2026 [1][24][25]. 6. **Market Risk Preferences**: There is a notable shift in market risk preferences from high-growth technology sectors to cyclical and manufacturing sectors, with agricultural products being positioned as the next investment focus [1][9][10]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Impact on Pricing**: Current geopolitical tensions have not been fully priced into the market, indicating potential for further price increases in agricultural commodities if conflicts escalate [1][5][7]. 2. **Historical Price Patterns**: Historically, commodity price increases follow a sequence starting with precious metals, then industrial metals, followed by oil and chemicals, and finally agricultural products, reflecting a synchronized recovery driven by global policy [2][11]. 3. **Emerging Market Dynamics**: The industrialization of emerging economies is creating new demand patterns, particularly in the chemical sector, which is expected to drive prices upward [4][8]. 4. **Natural Rubber Market Conditions**: The natural rubber market is expected to experience a price surge due to a combination of supply constraints and potential weather impacts, with prices projected to range between 15,500 to 18,500 CNY/ton in 2026 [1][12][16]. 5. **Palm Oil Market Weakness**: The palm oil market has faced significant supply pressures, leading to weak price performance, although recent geopolitical events have provided some support for future price increases [20][21][31]. 6. **Soybean Oil vs. Palm Oil Dynamics**: The strong performance of U.S. soybean oil contrasts with the weakness in palm oil, driven by differing biodiesel policy implementations and supply conditions [23][28]. Conclusion The agricultural commodities sector is poised for significant changes driven by geopolitical factors, supply constraints, and evolving market dynamics. Investors should closely monitor these developments, particularly in natural rubber, palm oil, and soybean oil markets, as they present potential opportunities and risks in the coming years.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market will generally fluctuate with a slight upward trend, in the range of 1,050 - 1,250 cents per bushel [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Focus - The market's focus lies in four aspects: the outcome of the Sino - US leaders' mutual visits, the impact of rising crude oil prices on planting, the release rhythm of South American supply pressure, and the EPA's biodiesel policy [2] 3.2 Overall View and Long - Short Logic of US Soybeans - **Overall View**: South American bumper harvest means no bull - market basis; demand improvement limits the downside, with an overall slightly upward - trending fluctuation in the range of 1,050 - 1,250 cents per bushel [6] - **Short Logic**: After China purchases US soybeans, the Trump administration may reduce support for the biodiesel addition policy; Brazil's harvest is accelerating, maintaining a harvest pattern; Argentina is expected to receive rainfall after a brief drought [7] - **Long Logic**: After China purchases 12 million tons of US soybeans, it will add another 8 million tons of soybeans in this crop year; Argentina's early drought may lead to a downgrade in yield; soaring global crude oil prices may trigger inflation [9] 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Prices - As of March 13, 2026, the price of the US soybean futures continuous contract rose 24.5 cents per bushel to 1,225.25 cents per bushel; the US soybean meal futures continuous contract rose $5.5 per short ton to $322.7 per short ton; the US soybean oil futures continuous contract rose 0.86 cents per pound to 67.44 cents per pound [9] - As of March 12, 2026, the spot soybean purchase price in Illinois rose 21.75 cents per bushel to 1,219.5 cents per bushel compared to the previous week; the soybean quotation at the US Gulf port rose 5.5 cents per bushel to 1,295.25 cents per bushel compared to the previous week [9] - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of soybeans in the inland region of Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose 0.23 reais per bag to 102.67 reais per bag; the spot price at the Paranagua port fell 0.98 reais per bag to 130.2 reais per bag compared to the previous week [10] - As of March 11, 2026, the FOB price of Argentine soybeans for the May shipment rose $1 per ton to $47 per ton; the price for the June shipment rose $2 per ton to $434 per ton [10] 3.4 Weather Conditions in Main Producing Areas - In the next week, precipitation in Brazil will be mainly concentrated in the central - eastern region, with slightly less precipitation in the southern region, but the situation will improve in the second week. In specific major producing states, Mato Grosso will have slightly more precipitation; South Mato Grosso will have normal precipitation in the next week and less in the second week; Paraná will have less precipitation, which is conducive to harvesting; Rio Grande do Sul will have less precipitation in the next week and the precipitation will gradually return in the second week [13] - In the next two weeks, the main producing areas in Argentina will have good precipitation, especially in the Buenos Aires and Cordoba regions, which is conducive to supplementing the previous water shortage and the growth of soybeans [13] 3.5 US Soybean Demand - According to USDA data, as of the week of March 6, 2026, the US soybean export inspection and quarantine volume was 995,000 tons, compared with 1.119 million tons in the previous week; the net sales in this crop year were 456,700 tons, compared with 383,400 tons in the previous week; the net sales in the next crop year were 9,000 tons, compared with 0 tons in the previous week; the shipment to China was 411,400 tons, compared with 734,600 tons in the previous week [33] 3.6 CFTC Positions and Planting Costs - According to CFTC data, as of March 7, 2026, the net long positions of funds in soybean futures and options were 230,000 contracts, an increase of 16,800 contracts compared to the previous week; the net long positions in soybean oil futures and options were 99,700 contracts, an increase of 33,900 contracts compared to the previous week; the net long positions in soybean meal futures and options were 80,600 contracts, an increase of 18,500 contracts compared to the previous week. From the perspective of fund positions, the operation ideas for soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are all to increase long positions [41] - In terms of planting costs, the cost in the US remains high, while the cost in Brazil is lower than that in the US but has also increased compared to the previous year. According to the latest crude oil price increase, the US planting cost is expected to increase by about 50 cents from the original 1,200 - 1,250 cents per bushel, and Brazil is expected to increase by 70 cents from 950 - 1,000 cents per bushel [43]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations serve as a "macro engine" for commodity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly influencing commodity trends, particularly leading to a surge in oil prices and a renewed focus on inflation trades, which may also heighten the risk of stagflation [2]. Group 1: Commodity Trends - Since January, commodities have shown overall strength with a structural market characterized by significant increases in energy prices, high levels in precious metals, a rebound in agricultural products, and weaker performance in the black commodities sector, reflecting rising supply chain risks and intensified policy negotiations [2]. - The recent geopolitical conflicts have notably increased market attention on agricultural products, leading to heightened speculative activity and a significant rise in implied volatility, with agricultural prices increasingly following oil price movements, indicating that macro-level influences outweigh basic supply-demand fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Correlation Between Oil and Agricultural Products - Historical data shows varying correlations between oil and agricultural products, with imported agricultural products being most affected. From 2016 to present, the correlation between Brent crude oil and agricultural prices, such as U.S. soybean oil, cotton, and corn, has been notably strong, often exceeding 0.67 [3]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - In early March, the oil market experienced a rapid upward pulse due to U.S.-Iran tensions, although prices have since retreated, establishing a higher price baseline. The oilseed market has strengthened due to both commodity market sentiment and the supportive fundamentals of biodiesel, making oilseeds a preferred choice among agricultural products [6]. - The current oil market dynamics differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the oil market is now influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear signals for a ceasefire, leading to a gradual increase in oil price baselines [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Costs and Production - The conflict has raised fertilizer and chemical costs significantly, with the USDA estimating a 92% increase in fertilizer costs and a 54% increase in chemical costs for soybean planting in 2022. This cost increase is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, leading to an overall rise in planting costs by approximately 9% [11]. - The soybean market is currently under pressure due to several years of high production, resulting in relatively low prices. However, the market sentiment is shifting, with the potential for upward price movement due to geopolitical events and changes in trade policies [12]. Group 5: Cotton Market Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to impact the cotton industry through increased costs across the supply chain, including planting, processing, and transportation. The ICAC predicts a 4% decline in global cotton production, which, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, may lead to increased price volatility [19]. - Short-term cotton prices are expected to remain strong, with potential for further increases if the conflict continues, as rising energy costs and declining production expectations converge [20]. Group 6: Sugar Market Dynamics - The global sugar market is currently in a production increase cycle, but prices are under pressure due to high industrial inventories. However, the market is showing signs of cost support, and geopolitical tensions may indirectly influence sugar prices through the ethanol market [27]. - The conflict has created disruptions in sugar supply chains, particularly affecting refined sugar exports, which may lead to tighter supply and upward price pressure in the sugar market [27]. Group 7: Corn Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant uncertainty in logistics and production in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and subsequently impacting grain markets. Despite a generally loose supply-demand balance for corn and wheat, macroeconomic factors are currently dominating market dynamics [34]. - Domestic corn prices have strengthened due to market speculation and concerns over supply gaps, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term [34]. Group 8: Egg and Pork Markets - The fluctuations in oil prices are impacting the egg market primarily through cost channels, as rising feed prices due to increased demand for biofuels are expected to elevate production costs for eggs [42]. - The pork market is experiencing indirect effects from rising feed costs, which could lead to increased production costs and potential supply pressures in the near term [49].