【国富期货早间看点】SGS马棕11月前20日出口环比减40.6% Patria巴西大豆播种率为79.61% 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4068. 00 | -2. 05 | | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 62. 51 | -1.08 | 0. 86 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 57.98 | -1. 33 | 0. 89 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1126. 50 | 0. 31 | 0. 74 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 319.80 | 0.66 | 0. 41 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50. 61 | -0. 90 | 0. 76 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 15 | -0. 08 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0875 | -0. 04 | | ...

我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 油油油MPOB 油油油油油 油油油油 2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 1 1 作者：聂波 从业资格证号：F03117695 交易咨询证号：Z0019358 研究联系方:niebo@zjtfqh.com 观点小结 周末美国环境保护署允许两份小型炼油厂100%豁免申请，但是有12份只获得50%的豁免申请，同时也拒绝了两份豁免申请， 美豆油主力跌破50美分/磅，但是并未持续较长时间，毕竟此前有消息称关于小型炼油厂豁免申请的批复被延迟到明年初， 虽然也没有豁免义务再分配的消息，但是市场更想等待2026年以以后的合规义务分配量，从EIA公布的8月数据，豆油在美 国生柴的投料比例回升至39%，但是废弃油脂以及动物脂肪的投料比例下跌明显，美豆油需求仍然旺盛，只是略低于去年同 期。 油脂 定性 解析 核心观 中性 10月马来西亚棕榈油产量环比增加11.02%至204万吨，高于市场预估的194-195万吨，分地区来看，马来半岛环比增加6.55%， 沙捞越州和沙巴州分别增15%和19%，进入10月产区旱季明显，多数地区降雨偏低，且10月假期少，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

北京时间11月20日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格弱势运行，今日开盘报51.30美分/磅，现报 51.15美分/磅，跌幅0.58%，盘中最高触及51.43美分/磅，最低下探51.11美分/磅。 豆油期货行情回顾： 据外媒调查的预期值，预计美国2025/26市场年度豆油出口净销售为0-2.5万吨。 11月19日：全国一级豆油成交量35500吨，环比上个交易日增加255.00%。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 52.47 52.78 51.00 51.41 -1.91% 【豆油市场消息速递】 11月19日，阿根廷豆油(12月船期)C&F价格1164美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调21美元/吨；阿根廷豆 油(2月船期)C&F价格1165美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调24美元/吨。 11月19日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 ...

北京时间11月17日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格窄幅震荡，今日开盘报50.37美分/磅，现报 50.43美分/磅，跌幅0.10%，盘中最高触及50.45美分/磅，最低下探50.10美分/磅。 更新时间： 11月14日：全国一级豆油成交量5500吨，环比上个交易日减少81.48%。 11月14日，进口豆油港口交货价格：天津天津港（600717）报价9740元/吨，较昨日下跌30元/吨；江苏 张家港报价9740元/吨，较昨日下跌30元/吨；广东黄埔港报价9740元/吨，较昨日下跌30元/吨。 豆油期货行情回顾： 美豆油 50.61 51.07 50.34 50.53 -0.18% 【豆油市场消息速递】 11月14日，阿根廷豆油(12月船期)C&F价格1146美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调6美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (2月船期)C&F价格1145美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调9美元/吨。 11月14日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to expected improvement in demand. It is expected to fluctuate moderately upwards within the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include a possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel addition policies after China purchases US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil improving precipitation and accelerating sowing progress, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Positive factors include an expected purchase of 1.2 million tons of US soybeans by China this year and over 2.5 million tons per year in the next three years, a slower - than - expected sowing progress in Brazil, and the possibility of La Niña weather causing a reduction in South American soybean production [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the price of US soybeans rose and then fell, with an overall increase of 22.75 cents per bushel. Before the monthly report, the market expected it to be bullish, pushing up the price. However, the reduction of export forecasts after the release of the report dampened market sentiment. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and the progress of biodiesel policies [7][9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal fluctuated and rose. The market was optimistic before the release of the monthly supply - demand report, but the price fell after the report. The market chose to take profits before the weekend. Future price performance needs to closely track the quantity and rhythm of China's purchase of US soybeans [11]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and rose slightly. China's return to the US soybean export market weakened the impetus for increased biodiesel addition, and the marginal demand for oils and fats began to deteriorate. Indonesia is expected to increase production by 10% in 2026, exceeding market expectations, and palm oil exports are poor [15]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **US Drought Situation**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 61%, compared with 62% last week. In the next two weeks, there will be more rain in the US, which is unfavorable for the completion of the harvest. The temperature will be warmer [28][30][34]. - **South American Precipitation**: In Brazil, precipitation is low in the central - western and northern regions and high in the eastern region. In Argentina, precipitation in the soybean - producing areas is close to normal, but less rain is forecasted in the second week [35][37]. - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week ending November 1, the sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week and a five - year average of 57% [39]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of November 7, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.02 dollars per bushel, down from 2.15 dollars last week [42]. - **US Soybean Export**: In the week ending September 26, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 611,200 tons, up from 512,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 1.0885 million tons, up from 984,800 tons last week. The net sales this year were 870,500 tons, up from 724,400 tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 220,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0 tons [44][46][48]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 1.2, indicating the entry into the La Niña range [55]. - **Soybean Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The planting cost in the US has decreased year - on - year, and the cost in Brazil has also decreased year - on - year [57][59][61]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the net short position of soybeans was 18,200 lots, up from 14,400 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,040 lots, down from 35,000 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 82,700 lots, up from 59,400 lots last week [63][65][67].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight decline observed in recent trading sessions [1][2]. Group 2 - On November 13, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 50.93 cents per pound and are currently at 50.81 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.14% [1]. - The trading session on November 12 saw soybean oil futures open at 51.30 cents, reach a high of 51.63 cents, and close at 50.94 cents, marking a decline of 0.29% [2]. - Argentine soybean oil prices for December shipment decreased by $13 per ton to $1,131, while February shipment prices fell by $1 per ton to $1,137 [2]. - The national first-class soybean oil trading volume on November 12 was 19,000 tons, which is a 52.50% decrease compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Port delivery prices for imported soybean oil also saw a decline, with Tianjin port prices at 9,650 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan; Jiangsu Zhangjiagang at 9,650 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan; and Guangdong Huangpu at 9,650 yuan per ton, down by 50 yuan [2].

Core Insights - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices continue to rise, opening at 51.30 cents per pound and currently at 51.47 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.21% increase [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached 51.50 cents per pound, while the lowest dipped to 51.29 cents per pound [1] Market Overview - On November 11, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 50.53 cents, peaked at 51.27 cents, and closed at 51.09 cents, marking a 1.13% increase [2] - As of the end of week 45 in 2025, domestic soybean oil inventory stands at 1.37 million tons, down from 1.462 million tons the previous week, representing a 6.26% decrease [2] - National soybean oil port inventory was reported at 1.14 million tons as of November 11, down from 1.199 million tons on November 4, a reduction of 59,000 tons [2] - Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) C&F price is $1,144 per ton, up $17 per ton from the previous trading day; February shipment price is $1,138 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that CBOT soybean oil futures prices are on the rise, with the current price at 49.74 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the opening price of 49.60 cents per pound [1] - On November 7, the opening price for soybean oil futures was 49.35 cents, reaching a high of 49.88 cents and a low of 49.00 cents, closing at 49.67 cents, which represents a 0.53% increase [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in soybean oil futures warehouse receipts by 446 contracts to a total of 26,014 contracts on November 7 [2] Group 2 - The national first-level soybean oil trading volume was 18,800 tons on November 7, which is a 52.76% decrease compared to the previous trading day [2] - In the major soybean-producing states in the U.S., there is a 100% confidence that temperatures will be above normal levels in the next 6-10 days, and 94% confidence that precipitation will be above normal levels [2]