1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the soybean meal and rapeseed meal market still exists, but the domestic soybean meal market has shown a certain rebound, and the rapeseed meal market has started to stabilize. The price center of the soybean system is expected to move downward, and the soybean meal and rapeseed meal spreads are expected to oscillate at a low level [4][5][8] - In the medium - term market, the positives for rapeseed meal will be relatively obvious. The soybean meal monthly spread still has downward pressure, while the rapeseed meal monthly spread may be strong, especially for the far - month spreads [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - US soybean futures oscillated. The domestic soybean meal futures rebounded, and the rapeseed meal futures began to stabilize. The soybean meal monthly spread continued to decline, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread oscillated [4] - For soybean meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions had different changes; for rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 in different regions also had corresponding changes. The spot basis, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all showed different trends [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - US old - crop soybean balance sheet is bullish, with exports basically completed and crush adjusted upward, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks. New - crop soybean supply is tightened due to a large reduction in planting area despite an increase in yield per unit. New - crop cumulative exports are slow, and the bullishness of the new - crop stock - to - use ratio is limited [5] - South American old - crop soybeans are in a supply - demand loosening situation. The production and crush of major exporting countries are expected to increase, and the ending stocks or exports may rise. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about future exports [5] - The global soybean meal supply pressure is obvious, with an expected increase in soybean crush in major producing areas and a slight increase in imports in major importing countries [5] - The domestic soybean and rapeseed meal spot market is loose. The oil mill operating rate is high, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory is at a high level. The market trading volume has increased, mainly in basis trading [7] - As of August 22, the actual soybean crush of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, the operating rate was 63.81%, the soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 0.31% from last week and a decrease of 5.46% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 3.8% from last week and a decrease of 29.71% year - on - year [7] - The domestic rapeseed meal demand has weakened, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, the rapeseed supply is relatively low, and the supply pressure still exists. As of August 22, the rapeseed crush of coastal oil mills was 48,000 tons, the operating rate was 12.79%, the rapeseed inventory was 153,000 tons, an increase from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 21,000 tons, a decrease from last week [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London has ended without clear information. The market is still worried about supply uncertainty, but macro - level disturbances are decreasing as the market stabilizes. In the short term, the price of Chinese soybeans is not likely to drop significantly due to high demand for US soybeans [8] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean meal 05 contract [9] - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM05 spread [9] - Options: Buy call options (for reference only) [9] 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data for Brazilian soybeans of different shipment periods, including CNF, CBOT contracts, exchange rates, soybean meal prices, soybean oil prices, and changes in pressing profits [9]

豆粕周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 政策消息扰动市场 连粕震荡回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约涨15.5收于1058.25美分/蒲式耳， 涨幅1.49%；豆粕01合约跌49收于3088元/吨，跌幅1.56%； 华南豆粕现货跌30收于2950元/吨，跌幅1.01%；菜粕01合 约跌3收于2543元/吨，跌幅0.12%；广西菜粕现货涨20收于 255 ...

根据美国NOPA报告数据显示，7月大豆压榨量为1.95699亿蒲式耳，高于预期，市场预期为1.9159亿蒲式耳，2025年6月为1.85709亿蒲式耳。偏高的压榨量反映出美豆的国内需求较为旺盛 美豆的需求超预期，主要来自美国豆油需求的增加。从美国豆油的月度产量数据看，7月美豆油产量为23.48亿磅，环比、同比均实现增长。生物燃料的需求增加是导致美豆油产量增长的主要动 需求端利多频现，但供应端的减产预期，除了8月供需报告外，还需要更多的产情数据和天气数据进行支撑。截至8月中旬，美豆的优良率数据维持在68%的高位，尽管数据连续3周环比下调，但 国内豆粕成本受支撑 国内需求仍旧不佳 豆粕的成本端受到外盘支撑，但国内的需求仍没有起色。在8月初日度需求量一度创下年内新高，但多为明年的合同订单，现货的需求没有明显提振。截至8月15日，8月豆粕日度成交量为27.5 综上，美豆期货价格在多重利多的影响下，短期将站稳1000美分/蒲式耳，且有进一步上涨的预期。国内豆粕成交量表现不佳，预计8月底豆粕全国均价维持在3100元/吨-3200元/吨震荡。 责任编辑：李铁民 卓创资讯豆粕行业分析师王文深 【导语】特朗普喊话中国购买美豆以 ...

北京时间8月18日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格窄幅震荡，今日开盘报53.25美分/磅，现报 每吨53.14美分/磅，跌幅0.15%，盘中最高触及53.27美分/磅，最低下探52.81美分/磅。 更新时间： 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月15日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 8月15日：全国一级豆油成交量21300吨，环比上个交易日减少61.83%。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 52.26 53.25 51.77 53.15 2.11% 美国油籽加工商协会（NOPA）：美国2025年7月豆油库存为13.79亿磅，市场预期为13.80亿磅，2025年 6月为13.66亿磅。 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月15日，阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1160美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调14美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (11月船期)C&F价格1151美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调11美元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that due to a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a significant decline. The market is expected to be oscillating with an upward bias, ranging between 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices rose. The August supply - demand report increased the yield forecast, but the reduction in the planted area exceeded market expectations. The tightening of the old - crop balance sheet also supported the price. Next week, the focus will be on the US tariff - imposing situation on other countries and the weather in the US main production areas [7]. - This week, US soybean meal prices continued to rebound. The reduction in the new - crop planted area exceeded market expectations. Although the yield increased, the supply - demand balance sheet tightened, supporting the price [10][11]. - This week, US soybean oil prices were in a sideways oscillation. On one hand, the sharp rise in US soybeans supported the soybean oil price. On the other hand, the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy led to a large - scale liquidation of the "buy oil, short meal" arbitrage positions, resulting in a stronger meal and weaker oil situation [15]. - As of the week ending August 1, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.48 per bushel. As of August 1, the purchase price at a farm (Iowa) was $9.37 per bushel, showing a decline. As of August 7, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel, also declining. The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 119.34 reais per bag. As of August 15, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 140.99 reais per bag [17][19][24] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas continued to improve, with a drought rate of 23% compared to 13% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US production areas will be basically normal. Precipitation will be relatively high in the Great Lakes region but relatively low in the central and southern regions. There will be basically no precipitation in Brazilian production areas, while precipitation in Argentine soybean production areas will be slightly above normal. As of the week ending August 8, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, down from 69% last week but the same as the same period last year [29][31][40] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of August 8, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.1 per bushel, up from $2.71 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 533,100 tons, down from 689,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 518,000 tons, down from 612,500 tons last week. The net sales volume this year was - 377,600 tons, down from 467,800 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 1.133 million tons, up from 545,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [43][45][53] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.653, indicating that it has entered the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of August 12, the net short position of soybeans was 20,100 contracts, down from 48,300 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 55,800 contracts, down from 67,700 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 78,100 contracts, down from 104,200 contracts last week [56][58][64]

美豆油 53.55 53.59 52.01 52.05 -2.58% 北京时间8月15日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报52.26美分/磅，现报 每吨52.05美分/磅，跌幅0.12%，盘中最高触及52.32美分/磅，最低下探52.03美分/磅。 更新时间： 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月14日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月14日，阿根廷豆油(9月船期)C&F价格1146美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(11月船 期)C&F价格1140美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调2美元/吨。 8月14日，大商所豆油期货仓单16970手，环比上个交易日减少5200手。 8月14日：全国一级豆油成交量55800吨，环比上个交易日增加170.87%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and grains. It also covers important fundamental information such as weather conditions in the US and their impact on crops, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the futures market. The information is useful for investors to understand the current situation and potential trends in the commodities market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 10 was 4254.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.31%. Brent 10 on ICE closed at 66.32, down 0.14% previously and up 0.15% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 09 closed at 63.35, down 0.74% previously and 0.31% overnight. CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 986.50, down 0.80% previously and 0.65% overnight [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.25, up 0.19% in ten days. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1382, up 0.05%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2218, up 0.11%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16186, down 0.40%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.3808, down 0.73%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1325.000, down 0.08%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2812, down 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 9170 with a basis of 120 and no daily change; in East China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change; in South China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 8500 with a basis of 84, down 26; in Jiangsu, it was 8600 with a basis of 184, down 96; in Guangdong, it was 8620 with a basis of 204, up 24; in Tianjin, it was 8520 with a basis of 104, down 36 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2910 with a basis of - 125, up 2; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 with a basis of - 115, down 8; in Guangdong, it was 2910 with a basis of - 125, down 18; in Tianjin, it was 3000 with a basis of - 35, up 12 [2]. - The CNF quote for imported Brazilian soybeans was 481 dollars/ton with a CNF premium of 315 cents/bushel [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - From August 13 - 17, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally high. The western part of the US Midwest has active rainfall, while the eastern part is relatively dry. Rainfall is beneficial for corn and soybean crops in the northern Great Plains and Midwest [3][5][6]. - In the past week, US temperatures were 1 - 8°F lower than normal, and rainfall in the northwest, northern Great Plains, and southeast was 10 - 85 mm higher than normal. In the next 15 days, US temperatures will be 2 - 6°F higher than normal, and the northern Great Plains and Midwest are expected to have 20 - 75 mm more rainfall than normal [6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 are estimated at 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [8]. - As of the week ending August 5, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 5999 to 156793, and short positions increased by 22377 to 195953. Similar changes occurred in other related contracts [8]. - The barge freight rate in the middle of the Mississippi River decreased by 5% week - on - week. A section of the Mississippi River was closed, which may delay the transportation of grains from Midwest farms to the US Gulf [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending July 31 decreased by 52.1% to 26,400 tons. From August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, exports were 9.5186 million tons, a 38.8% increase from the previous year. As of July 31, the commercial inventory was 1.1432 million tons [9]. - France raised its rapeseed production forecast for this year from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Russia is expected to produce 5 million tons of rapeseed this year [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for three consecutive days, with the Capesize and Supramax indices driving the increase [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 8, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 39,933 tons, a 227% increase from the previous trading day [11]. - On August 8, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 52,500 tons, a decrease of 53,100 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.17%, up 1.56% from the previous day [11]. - From August 2 - 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [11]. - As of the week ending August 8, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 45.13 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 134.14 yuan/head [12]. - In July 2025, the average monthly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces was 19.14 yuan/kg, a 3.1% increase month - on - month and a 22.7% decrease year - on - year [12]. - On August 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.94, up 0.02 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - Fed Governor Bowman believes that recent downward revisions to employment growth data highlight the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. She expects to support rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [15]. - St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the Fed faces dual risks in achieving its inflation and employment goals [15]. - The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of - 0.2% [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 8, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1382, up 37 points (RMB depreciation) [17]. - On August 8, the People's Bank of China conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [17]. - China's CPI in July was 0% year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1% [17]. 3.5 Capital Flows - On August 8, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 8.126 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.801 billion yuan, including 1.151 billion yuan in agricultural products, 827 million yuan in chemicals, a net outflow of 777 million yuan in black - series commodities, and 601 million yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 9.927 billion yuan [20]. - Commodities with large capital inflows included lithium carbonate (1.3 billion yuan), gold (1.152 billion yuan), and crude oil (464 million yuan). Those with large outflows included CSI 500 stock index futures (- 2.388 billion yuan) and CSI 300 stock index futures (- 3.029 billion yuan) [19].

北京时间8月4日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格偏强运行，今日开盘报53.89美分/磅，现报每 吨54.00美分/磅，涨幅0.19%，盘中最高触及54.01美分/磅，最低下探53.75美分/磅。 豆油期货行情回顾： 8月1日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 8月1日：全国一级豆油成交量43500吨，环比上个交易日增加29.85%。 8月1日，阿根廷豆油（8月船期）C&F价格1155美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调19美元/吨；阿根廷豆 油（10月船期）C&F价格1129美元/吨，与上个交易日相比下调28美元/吨。 8月1日，大商所豆油期货仓单3000手，环比上个交易日增加3000手。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 54.74 54.99 53.78 53.94 -1.53% 【豆油市场消息速递】 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the high - yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline. The market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] - Negative factors include the potential deterioration of US soybean export situation due to US tariff hikes on the world, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas leading to high yield expectations, and the weekly soybean good - to - excellent rate being higher than expected [5] - Positive factors are the support from biodiesel policies and the expectation of improved China - US relations, a tight balance in the old - crop balance sheet, and the planting area being slightly lower than expected [5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - This week, US soybean prices declined due to good precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Next week, key points to watch are the US tariff hikes on other countries and the weather in the main US producing areas [7] - This week, US soybean meal prices fluctuated at a low level, mainly due to the unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage [11] - This week, US soybean oil prices rose first and then fell. On one hand, good weather in the main US soybean - producing areas pressured soybean prices; on the other hand, the large - scale unwinding of the buy - oil - sell - meal arbitrage positions led to a decline in oil prices and an increase in meal prices [14][15] - As of the week ending July 25, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel. The purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.81 per bushel and was falling. As of July 31, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.59 per bushel and was falling [18][21][23] - The spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, continued to rise to 116.79 reais per bag. As of August 1, the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 139.04 reais per bag [26][28] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas continued to improve, with the drought rate at 14%, compared to 17% last week [31] - In the next two weeks, the temperature in central US will be lower than normal, and precipitation in the central US soybean - producing areas will be slightly less. Precipitation in Brazilian producing areas is normal but on the low side, and precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is basically normal [33][35][38] - As of July 25, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, up from 68% last week and 67% in the same period last year [42] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of July 25, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.66 per bushel, up from $2.2 last week [45] - The weekly US soybean export volume was 499,600 tons, up from 303,200 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 409,700 tons, up from 377,000 tons last week [47][49] - The net sales of US soybeans this year were 349,100 tons, up from 103,400 tons last week. The sales of US soybeans for the next year were 429,400 tons, up from 238,800 tons last week [51][53] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [55] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.47, approaching the La Nina range [58] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [60][62] - As of July 29, the net short position of soybeans in CFTC was 18,700 contracts, compared to a net long position of 6,200 contracts last week. The net long position of soybean oil was 83,300 contracts, up from 72,500 contracts last week. The net short position of soybean meal was 112,900 contracts, up from 103,700 contracts last week [66][68][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 27.5 to close at 1035 cents per bushel, a 2.73% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 80 to close at 3056 yuan per ton, a 2.69% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 30 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 1.06% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 89 to 2850 yuan per ton, a 3.38% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2600 yuan per ton, a 3.59% increase [4][7]. - The U.S. soybeans closed higher in a volatile market. Firstly, the U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeded expectations, and driven by the boost of the biodiesel policy, the strength of U.S. soybean oil led to the increase. Secondly, the export sales progress of new - crop soybeans accelerated, and the agricultural product procurement agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia was conducive to increasing the export demand for U.S. agricultural products. Thirdly, precipitation in the production areas during the critical growth period in August might decrease compared with the previous period, and the temperature would rise, with the possibility of drought still existing. The Brazilian premium fluctuated within a limited range, and combined with the strength of the external market, there was support from the import cost. There was an expectation of tight soybean supply in the fourth quarter, and there was still no news of soybean procurement. The Dalian soybean meal rose in a volatile market. In the near - term, soybean meal was in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, the supply was relatively loose, and the rebound strength of the spot price was limited [4][7]. - In the next two weeks, the cumulative precipitation in the production areas will be slightly higher than the average, but the precipitation forecast at the end of July has decreased compared with the previous period, and the temperature is relatively high, so there are still concerns about drought. Attention should be paid to the U.S. tariff trade negotiations, as an agricultural product agreement may be reached, which is conducive to boosting the export expectations of U.S. agricultural products. Under the effect of the U.S. biodiesel policy, U.S. soybean oil has risen significantly, supporting the increase in U.S. soybeans. The near - term crushing capacity utilization rate is at a high level, the spot supply is sufficient, and the rebound strength is limited. Attention should be paid to further Sino - U.S. economic and trade negotiations. If the relationship improves, it may be conducive to starting the procurement of U.S. soybeans. The Brazilian premium is stable, and the increase in the external market has raised the import cost. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may run in a slightly stronger and volatile manner [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 18 | July 11 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1035.00 | 1007.50 | 27.50 | 2.73% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 472.00 | 467.00 | 5.00 | 1.07% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 458.00 | 452.00 | 6.00 | 1.33% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 17.41 | - 32.57 | 15.16 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3056.00 | 2976.00 | 80.00 | 2.69% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2722.00 | 2633.00 | 89.00 | 3.38% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 334.00 | 343.00 | - 9.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2900.00 | 2830.00 | 70.00 | 2.47% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2850.00 | 2820.00 | 30.00 | 1.06% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 206.00 | - 156.00 | - 50.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean market: The U.S. soybean crushing volume in June was higher than the average expectation of market analysts, and the soybean oil inventory dropped to a five - month low. As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week ending July 15, about 7% of the U.S. soybean planting area was affected by drought. The export sales of U.S. soybeans showed different trends in different periods. The 2024/2025 annual cumulative export sales volume was 5065 tons, with a sales progress of 99.8%. The 2025/2026 annual weekly export net sales were 53 tons, and the cumulative sales volume of this year was 237 tons [7][8][9]. - Brazilian soybean market: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that the soybean export volume in July was expected to be 1219 tons. The 2025 soybean production forecast in Brazil reached a record 1.697 billion tons, and the processing volume and export volume forecasts were also adjusted upwards [10][15]. - Inventory situation: As of the week ending July 11, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 657.49 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 88.62 tons, the unexecuted contracts were 548.8 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 823.1 tons. As of the week ending July 18, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the weekly average daily pick - up volume was 185,240 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3055 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.26 days [10][11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean export in the first two weeks of July was 4,331,243.97 tons, with an average daily export volume of 481,249.33 tons, a 1.61% decrease compared with the average daily export volume in July last year [12]. - As of the week ending July 2, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed in Saskatchewan, Canada was 58.97%. As of the week ending July 8, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed growth in Alberta was 63.7%. In Manitoba, rapeseed was at different growth stages [12]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 7 to July 11 was 443.58 reais per ton [13]. - As of July 13, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed import volumes were all lower than the same period last year [13]. - The 2025/26 Ukrainian rapeseed production was expected to remain at 3.25 million tons, and the Ukrainian parliament passed a bill to impose a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans [14]. - The U.S. renewable fuel blending credit limit in June increased compared with May. The ethanol (D6) blending credit limit was about 1.25 billion gallons, and the biodiesel (D4) blending credit limit increased from 602 million gallons last month to 629 million gallons in June [14]. - The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina raised the 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 49.5 million tons [15]. Relevant Charts The report includes 28 charts, covering the trends of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB spot exchange rates, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal contract trends, spot prices in different regions, and various inventory and trading volume data trends [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][29][31][35][38][39][41][43][48][49]