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《农产品》日报-20250718
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:13
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are mainly in a range - bound consolidation trend, dragged down by the negative factors of increasing production and decreasing exports. The domestic continuous palm oil futures are expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 8,800 yuan resistance [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market continues to digest the positive news of biodiesel. The short - term positive news of biodiesel continues to boost the CBOT soybean oil market. The domestic spot price rises with the market, but the basis quotation is under short - term pressure [1]. - **Meal**: The expectation of US soybean exports is improving, but the new - crop excellent rate exceeds market expectations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the basis is in a low - level shock. The short - term soybean meal may have further upward space, and it is advisable to operate cautiously and bullishly [3]. - **Live Pigs**: The live pig spot market is running weakly. The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. The 09 contract has accumulated upward pressure, and it is advisable to operate bearishly when the price is high [5]. - **Corn**: The short - term market's weak sentiment has not been fully alleviated, and the futures price remains weak. In the medium - term, the supply of corn is tight, and the third - quarter supply - demand situation supports the corn price. Attention should be paid to the scale of subsequent auctions [7]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, and the raw sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and it is advisable to have a bearish view after a rebound, with the pressure reference range of 5,800 - 5,900 yuan [10]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a moderately bullish range. In the long - term, the cotton price will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [12]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is sufficient, but the demand may gradually improve. The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On July 17, 2025, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8,290 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.36% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 8,072 yuan, up 30 yuan or 0.37%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil remained unchanged at 8,770 yuan, while the futures price of P2509 was 8,796 yuan, up 74 yuan or 0.85%. The spot price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil remained unchanged at 6,000 yuan, and the futures price of O1509 was 9,440 yuan, down 30 yuan or - 0.32% [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The three - oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) remained unchanged at 42 yuan; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 20 yuan, up 2 yuan or 11.11%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) was 66 yuan, down 6 yuan or - 8.33%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was - 480 yuan, up 30 yuan or 5.88%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread was - 724 yuan, down 44 yuan or - 6.47% [1]. 2. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2,860 yuan, up 40 yuan or 1.42% from the previous day; the futures price of M2509 is 3,029 yuan, up 52 yuan or 1.75%. The basis of M2509 is - 169 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 7.64% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2,610 yuan, up 50 yuan or 1.95%; the futures price of RM2509 is 2,653 yuan, up 66 yuan or 2.49%. The basis of RM2509 is - 109 yuan, down 16 yuan or - 17.20% [3]. 3. Live Pigs - **Futures Indicators**: The basis of the main contract is 390 yuan, down 200 yuan or - 33.90% from the previous day; the price of the live pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan, up 50 yuan or 0.36%. The 9 - 11 spread is 525 yuan, up 5 yuan or 0.96% [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,450 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 14,600 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13,700 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Liaoning is 14,250 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 15,840 yuan, down 300 yuan; the price in Hunan is 14,060 yuan, down 150 yuan; the price in Hebei is 14,500 yuan, down 100 yuan [5]. 4. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2509 contract is 2,296 yuan, up 3 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 0.43%. The basis is 44 yuan, down 13 yuan or - 22.81% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2509 contract is 2,646 yuan, up 1 yuan or 0.27%. The basis is 34 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 17.07% [7]. 5. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of the sugar 2601 contract is 5,655 yuan, up 19 yuan or 0.34%; the price of the sugar 2509 contract is 5,828 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.34%. The ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.75 cents per pound, up 0.20 cents or 1.21% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6,050 yuan, unchanged; the price in Kunming is 5,905 yuan, up 25 yuan or 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 222 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 8.26%; the Kunming basis is 77 yuan, up 5 yuan or 6.94% [10]. 6. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of the cotton 2509 contract is 14,250 yuan, up 260 yuan or 1.86%; the price of the cotton 2601 contract is 13,960 yuan, up 95 yuan or 0.69%. The ICE US cotton main contract is 68.84 cents per pound, up 0.28 cents or 0.41% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15,316 yuan, up 101 yuan or 0.66%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15,354 yuan, up 82 yuan or 0.54% [12]. 7. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3,595 yuan per 500 kg, up 4 yuan or 0.11%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3,462 yuan per 500 kg, up 8 yuan or 0.23%. The basis is - 738 yuan per 500 kg, up 124 yuan or 14.36% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.86 yuan per jin, up 0.13 yuan or 4.68% [13].