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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Brazilian soybean production is expected to continue increasing, and the oil market will fluctuate [1] - Palm oil has been under pressure recently due to inventory build - up expectations, declining exports, and rising production, but the expectation of biodiesel experiments still provides support, and it is not likely to fall sharply in the short term [2] - The passage of the bill by the US House of Representatives and the upcoming USDA report on the 14th will put some pressure on the oil market [2] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8752.00 yuan/ton, a change of +8 yuan or +0.09% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8316.00 yuan/ton, a change of +28.00 yuan or +0.34% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9975.00 yuan/ton, a change of +135.00 yuan or +1.37% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, a change of -30.00 yuan or -0.35%, and the spot basis was P01 - 102.00, a change of -38.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8460.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton or +0.12%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, a change of -18.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +140.00 yuan or +1.37%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 355.00, a change of +5.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary Brazilian Soybean Forecast - The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 177.6016 million tons, an increase of 6.1199 million tons or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 49.0634 million hectares, an increase of 1.7169 million hectares or 3.6% year - on - year [2] - The estimated soybean yield in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is 3.62 tons per hectare, a decrease of 2.0 kg per hectare or 0.1% year - on - year [2] International News - The US House of Representatives has enough votes to pass the temporary appropriation bill, which will be submitted to Trump for signature today [2] - Indian palm oil imports in October were 602,381 tons, compared with 833,017 tons in September [2]

Core Insights - The biodiesel sector is experiencing significant positive developments, with core stocks showing notable price increases due to favorable policies and market conditions [1][4] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will contribute approximately 65% to the aviation sector's net-zero carbon target by 2050 [1] - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for biodiesel utilization, aiming for 2 million tons by 2025 and 5 million tons by 2030, alongside mandatory blending standards [2] Industry Developments - The European SAF FOB price has risen over 58% since the beginning of the year, reaching $2840-$2860 per ton, while domestic prices have increased to $2450-$2650 per ton [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of biodiesel in renewable energy development [2] - The International Maritime Organization is promoting biodiesel as a key option for reducing emissions in the shipping sector [2] Technological Advancements - Third-generation biodiesel technologies have achieved conversion efficiencies exceeding 92%, significantly reducing pollutant emissions and ensuring compatibility with existing maritime and aviation equipment [3] - Leading domestic companies are extending their production capabilities into the SAF supply chain, enhancing product value [3] Market Activity - The demand for biodiesel is expanding into high-value applications, with increased trading activity in the sector as market expectations for growth rise [4] - Core stocks in the biodiesel sector are attracting significant investor interest, driven by policy and price catalysts [4] Company Spotlight: Shango Environmental - Shango Environmental (000803.SZ) is a leading player in the biodiesel raw material sector, focusing on the resource utilization of used cooking oil (UCO) [5] - The company has an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of UCO and is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive growth in global SAF demand [5] - For the first half of 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 40-45 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 214.28%-228.56% [5] Competitive Advantages - Shango has established a robust network for collecting used cooking oil, enhancing its raw material self-sufficiency [6] - The company is upgrading its production facilities to meet both domestic and international SAF production standards, supporting future market expansion [6] - Plans to increase biodiesel production capacity to 500,000 tons per year are in place, leveraging raw material advantages to extend the supply chain into SAF production [6]

钛媒体App 11月12日消息，生物柴油概念盘中再度走强，朗坤科技、山高环能涨停，嘉澳环保涨近 8%，再创历史新高，鹏鹞环保、卓越新能、海新能科跟涨。消息面上，据国际航空运输协会（IATA） 预测，到2050年航空业65%的碳减排将通过使用SAF来实现。在无需对现有飞行器及航空基础设施进行 大幅改造的基础上，使用SAF将比使用传统航空燃料减碳80%。（科股宝播报） ...

农产品早报 2025-11-12 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【行情资讯】 隔夜 CBOT 大豆基本稳定，市场等待 USDA 月报给出指引。周二巴西升贴水小幅下跌，大豆到港成本上 升，国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2990 元/吨，豆粕成交较弱、提货较好。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大 豆再度累库至 1000 万吨以上，因到港量偏大且开机率下滑，MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 215.79 万吨，上周压榨大豆 180.57 万吨。 杨泽元 未来两周，巴西大豆产区东南部降雨分散不均且偏少，其他地区较为正常，据外媒报道，截至上周四， 巴西 2025/26 年度大豆播种率已经达到预期的 61%，去年同期为 67 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with all three major indices slightly declining. The organic silicon sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry hitting the daily limit. The chemical sector continued its strong performance, with Qing Shui Yuan and Chengxing Co. achieving consecutive gains. The battery sector also performed well, with stocks such as Fengyuan Co. and Tianji Co. reaching the daily limit. In contrast, robotics concept stocks fell, with Hengshuai Co. and Lixing Co. dropping over 10% [1] Daily Highlights 1. Biodiesel - The biodiesel sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Shanggao Environmental Energy, Haineng Technology, and Zhuoyue New Energy hitting the daily limit. Jiaao Environmental Protection reached a historical high. According to Baichuan Data, the price of SAF in Europe surged from $1780/ton to $2860/ton in the past two weeks, marking a 60% increase [4] 2. Organic Silicon - The organic silicon sector experienced a notable rise, with stocks such as Hesheng Silicon Industry and Dongyue Silicon Material reaching the daily limit. The new generation humanoid robot IRON developed by Xiaopeng Motors was showcased at the 7th Xiaopeng Technology Day on November 5. Xiaopeng's chairman, He Xiaopeng, stated that IRON is the most human-like humanoid robot, featuring a "skeleton-muscle-skin" design [6] 3. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector also saw substantial gains, with stocks like Shenzhen New Star and Furi Co. achieving consecutive gains. On the evening of November 6, Tianci Materials announced two agreements with Zhongchuang Xinhang and Guoxuan High-Tech for supply and procurement contracts, committing to supply a total of 725,000 tons of electrolyte products from 2026 to 2028 [8] Additional Insights - The supply situation for hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F) remains tight, with first and second-tier companies operating at full capacity and no significant expansion plans in sight. Most 6F manufacturers, except Tianci, have reported consecutive losses. Some smaller manufacturers are raising prices to recover cash flow due to the changing supply-demand dynamics in the industry [10]

Soybeans are showing 3 to 5 cent gains in the front months on Monday morning. Futures posted gains of 7 to 9 cents across most contracts on Friday, helping to push the weekly gain to 55 cents for November. Total open interest was up 6,882 contracts on Friday, implying new buying. There were 207 deliveries issued on Friday night, taking the total to 884 for the month. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 6 1/4 cents higher at $10.33 1/2. Soymeal futures were up $4.50 to $6.10, with December ra ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, after the China - US talks, China may increase purchases of US soybeans, which will boost short - term US soybean export sentiment. High inventory pressure persists in the short term, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases. For rapeseed, domestic supply - demand changes are limited, and attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed and potential import policy changes [7]. - In the oil market, soybean oil maintains a slightly oversupplied pattern with high inventory pressure; palm oil's market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts; and rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking cycle, with attention on Sino - Canadian relations and import tariffs [39][40][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oilseed Market - **Soybean Meal**: After the China - US talks, China may increase US soybean purchases, which will drive short - term US soybean export sentiment. Imports from Brazil and Argentina from October to November exceeded expectations, and attention should be paid to the progress of US soybean purchases. After December, South American soybean supply will decline, and US soybean purchases will affect subsequent inventory changes. There is short - term high inventory pressure, but short - term price rebounds may occur due to cost increases [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic supply - demand changes are small. Attention should be paid to the listing of new Canadian rapeseed. With the China - US talks, there are high expectations for the easing of Sino - Canadian relations, and attention should be paid to potential changes in rapeseed import tariffs. Domestic demand has entered a seasonal consumption off - season, especially for aquatic products, and attention should be paid to future import policy changes [7]. Oil Market - **Soybean Oil**: After the China - US talks, the increase in overseas soybean prices may affect domestic costs. The Indonesian B50 plan may fall short of expectations, weakening the biodiesel concept and being unfavorable to the oil market. Recent soybean crushing has slowed down, and soybean oil inventory remains high in the short term, maintaining a slightly oversupplied pattern [39]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation exceeded expectations this month, with a month - on - month increase, and the report is slightly bearish. The Indonesian B50 biodiesel plan may not be realized, weakening the biodiesel concept. Domestic inventory is still in a high - accumulation stage. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking cycle caused by seasonal production cuts in major producing countries at the end of the year. The market trend is oscillating due to conflicts between weakening biodiesel concepts and seasonal production cuts [40]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic market is in a slow de - stocking cycle. Sino - Canadian relations are variable, and attention should be paid to potential impacts and changes in import tariffs. Attention should be paid to the possible easing of rapeseed oil imports due to tariff issues, which may lead to lower market expectations [41].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils on October 27, 2025, covering the price, market trend, and driving logic of varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil [1][5][7] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The domestic soybean meal market maintains a loose supply - demand pattern. The futures price will oscillate until the quantity and time of China's purchase of US soybeans are announced. Palm oil has short - term pressure but also long - term demand support, and its futures price is oscillating weakly [5][7] Group 4: Variety Summaries Soybean Meal - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term (within a week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) views are oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is weakly oscillating [5][6] - **Driving Factors**: The supply - demand pattern is affected by Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure. The futures price is affected by the possible supply gap in the fourth quarter and China's purchase of US soybeans [5][6] Palm Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is weakly oscillating [6][7] - **Driving Factors**: Affected by its biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6][7] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term and medium - term views are oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The reference view is weakly oscillating [6] - **Driving Factors**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of China's soybean industry from dependency on imports to achieving self-sufficiency, highlighting the strategic importance of food security in the context of international trade dynamics [1][16]. Historical Context - In 2001, China opened its soybean market as part of its WTO accession, leading to a significant influx of cheaper U.S. soybeans, which caused 80% of domestic farmers to abandon soybean cultivation [3]. - By 2004, China became the world's largest soybean importer, accounting for one-third of global trade, while foreign firms controlled 85% of China's crushing capacity [6]. Price Volatility and Market Manipulation - A drought warning in 2003 led to a spike in soybean prices from 2300 RMB/ton to 5500 RMB/ton, followed by a crash to 2200 RMB/ton, resulting in significant losses for Chinese companies [4]. - This price volatility was perceived as a targeted attack by international capital on China's soybean industry [6]. Strategic Responses - In response to the crisis, China initiated a strategic reserve plan in 2004, leading to large-scale purchases of domestic soybeans and market stabilization efforts [7]. - By 2006, China began to counteract speculative pressures by releasing reserves, which helped to stabilize domestic prices and demonstrated China's capacity to withstand food crises [7]. Industry Self-Sufficiency Initiatives - China has diversified its soybean import sources, increasing from 2 countries in 2001 to 12 countries by 2023, focusing on Brazil, Argentina, and emerging markets [8]. - Technological advancements have been made, such as the development of high-protein soybean varieties with protein content exceeding that of U.S. genetically modified soybeans [8]. Future Outlook - By 2024, China's domestic soybean production is expected to stabilize above 20 million tons, with a steadily increasing self-sufficiency rate [9]. - China's approach to trade disputes has matured, emphasizing a dual strategy of domestic support and diversified imports to mitigate risks [13]. Conclusion - The transformation of China's soybean industry reflects a broader narrative of food security as a cornerstone of national security, showcasing resilience and strategic foresight in the face of international challenges [16].