Summary of Conference Call for Junxin Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Junxin Co., Ltd. - **Industry**: Waste Management and Energy Generation Key Points Financial Performance - **2025 Revenue**: 2.748 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.6% [3] - **Net Profit**: 717 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.6% [3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 1.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 75% [3] - **Electricity Generation**: 1.84 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 24% [2] - **Electricity per Ton of Waste**: 486 kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [2] Waste Management Operations - **Total Waste Processed**: 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14% [3] - **Kitchen Waste Processed**: 415,700 tons due to the acquisition of Renhe Environment [3] - **Industrial Mixed Oil Sales**: 30,700 tons with an average price of 7,100 RMB/ton [3][13] Project Developments - **Changsha Phase III Project**: Selected as a key project for 2026, with a processing capacity of 4,000 tons/day [2] - **Capital Expenditure for 2026**: Estimated at 500-600 million RMB, focusing on overseas projects [2][9] - **Overseas Projects**: Expected to follow a BOO model, with no confirmation of construction revenue [4] Profitability and Growth Potential - **Profit Contribution from Renhe Environment**: 230 million RMB, with potential for price adjustments of 5-6% annually [3][15] - **Future Profit Growth**: Expected from increased processing volumes and price hikes in waste management services [15] Dividend Policy - **Dividend Payout Ratio**: Minimum of 50%, with actual payout rates exceeding 70% over the past three years [2][8] - **Share Buyback Plan**: 200-300 million RMB buyback plan nearing completion, with uncertainty on future buyback plans [8] Challenges and Risks - **Q4 2025 Net Profit Decline**: Due to maintenance shutdowns and one-time accounting adjustments related to tax incentives [6] - **Impact of Weather on Operations**: A 20% decline in leachate treatment volume due to reduced rainfall [2][16] Future Outlook - **Sustainability of Electricity Generation Growth**: Continuous internal technological upgrades and collaboration with Renhe Environment expected to maintain growth [23] - **Expansion Plans**: Potential for further capacity expansion in kitchen waste processing and exploration of biodiesel production [15] International Expansion - **Bishkek Project**: Strong performance with high capacity utilization and expected profit contribution of around 8% [17] - **Future Projects**: Plans for projects in Issyk-Kul and Osh, with expected construction starts in 2026 [19][20] Regulatory and Market Conditions - **Hong Kong Listing**: Currently awaiting approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [12] - **Changes in Waste Processing Metrics**: New metrics for waste processing now reflect total incineration volume, allowing for year-on-year comparisons [22] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, operational developments, future outlook, and potential risks.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils and fats are oscillating and falling due to the recent significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, which put pressure on the three major vegetable oils. However, from a fundamental perspective, the further implementation of biodiesel in Southeast Asia in the future, combined with the later shift in El Niño weather, will strongly support palm oil prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9866.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 64 yuan and a range of - 0.64%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8668.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 46.00 yuan and a range of - 0.53%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9884.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a range of - 0.07% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9830.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 160.00 yuan and a range of + 1.65%, and the spot basis was P05 - 36.00, with a month - on - month change of + 224.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 50.00 yuan/ton and a range of + 0.57%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 192.00, with a month - on - month change of + 96.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20.00 yuan and a range of - 0.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 516.00, with a month - on - month change of - 13.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - Soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was 511 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) was 476 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: The premium for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (April shipment) was 216 cents/bushel, up 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (May shipment) was 139 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - Other oil prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1299 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1216 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F quote for imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1120 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (June shipment) was 1100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 591 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 600 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, trading volumes, production, inventory, and other aspects of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For vegetable oils, due to factors such as ongoing Middle - East disputes, implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan, and the rise in international crude oil prices, vegetable oil prices are expected to follow the upward trend of crude oil. It is recommended to hold long positions in vegetable oils [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the US biodiesel policy has been implemented and the market is worried about the over - expected soybean planting area in the US, causing US soybeans to decline. It is advisable to gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 30, due to the unresolved Middle - East disputes and Indonesia's formal implementation of the B50 plan, the vegetable oil sector rose collectively. For example, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8,714 yuan/ton, up 0.30% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 38,768 lots; the palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9,930 yuan/ton, up 1.66% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,265 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - The US EPA requires the production and usage of biodiesel and renewable diesel to increase by over 60% compared to 2025 levels, and raises the proportion of the fuel quota allocated to large refineries from 50% to 70%. - Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. - On March 30, NYMEX crude oil futures closed higher, with the settlement price breaking through $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. - From March 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.92% month - on - month, with different production changes in different regions. - Brazil's Abiove suggests increasing the biodiesel blending ratio in regular diesel. - The US CPC predicts that La Nina will turn into ENSO neutral state next month, and El Nino may form from June - August 2026 and last until the end of 2026. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 25, 2026 increased by 38.4% compared to the same period in February. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of three major edible oils was 2.0421 million tons, with different inventory changes for each type of oil [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the expansion of the Iran war and the implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the US soybean oil market is strong. Indonesia's implementation of the B50 plan drives up the Malaysian palm oil futures price. Domestically, the decrease in soybean oil inventory supports the futures market, but low market purchases lead to a stable basis. Palm oil follows the crude oil trend, and the B50 plan tightens the export expectation. Rapeseed oil fluctuates at a high level due to Middle - East uncertainties [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in vegetable oils. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 9,300 and a support level of 8,048 [2]. 3.2 Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 30, the oil was strong and the meal was weak. The near - month contracts of double - meal oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts adjusted slightly. For example, the soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, with a 0% day - on - day change in closing price and a daily reduction of 56,190 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - AgMarket.net expects the US soybean planting area this spring to reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the USDA's February forecast. - As of March 27, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 72.99%. - Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts have been adjusted downwards. - As of the end of the 13th week of 2026, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans, soybean meal, imported rapeseed, and imported rapeseed meal has changed to different extents [2][3]. - Provide spot prices, basis, and other information for soybean meal and rapeseed meal on March 30, as well as information on soybean crushing profit and soybean arrival cost [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the implementation of the US biodiesel policy and concerns about over - expected soybean planting area in the US cause US soybeans to decline. Domestically, spot prices of oil mills are adjusted downwards, and the market purchase and sales slow down. The short - term view on Zhengzhou meal is weakly bearish [3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Gradually close out near - month short positions in double - meal and wait for new buying opportunities in far - month contracts after adjustment. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 3,278 and a support level of 2,710 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, due to the recovery of MPOA production and concerns about the slowdown in export growth, there is a risk of the crude palm oil futures stalling and falling around 4,800 ringgit. Domestically, with the strong performance of international crude oil futures, attention should be paid to whether the Dalian palm oil futures can effectively break through the 10,000 - yuan mark [1]. - For soybean oil, the Trump administration's order to increase the proportion of bio - fuels in gasoline and diesel in the US provides short - term upward momentum for CBOT soybean oil. In China, the plan of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel project and the decrease in domestic soybean oil inventory due to lower factory operating rates support the futures market, but the weak procurement and stable basis quotes show a mixed situation [1]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, market rumors of the second batch of Australian seed crushing commercial pilot opening and the increase in the proportion of palm - oil - blended diesel in Indonesia from 40% to 50% in 2026 have boosted the market. The Zhengzhou rapeseed oil 05 contract is in a wide - range shock around 9,800 yuan, with the upper pressure at 10,000 yuan. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state [1]. 2.2 Cotton - ICE cotton futures rose, reaching a six - month high, supported by the overall optimistic sentiment in CBOT grain futures, crude oil, and the stock market. In the Mississippi Delta, farmers may switch to more profitable soybeans due to low cotton prices and high input costs, and the cotton planting area may reach a ten - year low. The market estimates the planting area to be 9.229 million acres, lower than the previous expectation. In China, the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference limits the upside of domestic cotton. The "Golden March" peak season is ending, with fewer new orders for spinning mills, slower yarn de - stocking, and some mills reducing their operating rates. The "Silver April" order sustainability is uncertain, but the low downstream inventory provides support for cotton prices [2]. 2.3 Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures closed lower after reaching a five - month high. A moderate correction is expected after the 18% increase since early March. Thailand plans to use 150,000 tons of raw sugar for ethanol production. Brazil has the flexibility to adjust sugar production. Before the geopolitical situation eases, raw sugar prices may remain high and volatile. In China, the beet sugar production is in line with expectations, and the cane sugar production exceeds expectations. The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is supported by futures, expected to remain high and volatile [4]. 2.4 Red Dates - The jujube market is in the consumption off - season, with light trading in the main sales areas. The prices are weakening, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory pressure is evident, and the futures warehouse receipts registration has decreased year - on - year. The short - term futures price is expected to remain low and volatile [6]. 2.5 Apples - The apple spot market shows a differentiated trend, with good - quality apples having firm prices and ordinary apples facing de - stocking pressure. The downstream Qingming Festival stocking is less than expected, and the apple shipment speed has decreased. The market sentiment has weakened due to capital withdrawal. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather in the main producing areas on the far - month contracts [7][11]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch - The current grain sales progress is slower than last year. With the warming temperature and the decline in futures prices, the enthusiasm of grain - holding entities to sell has increased. The continuous release of policy wheat and the expected auction of directional rice have weakened the bullish sentiment, and the price is under pressure. However, the price decline may be limited due to the strong price - holding attitude of traders. On the demand side, the deep - processing inventory has increased but is still low, and feed enterprises have rigid demand for corn, with an increasing substitution of wheat. In general, the short - term corn price is weak, but the limited remaining grain and the rigid demand of downstream enterprises support the price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the directional rice release [15]. 2.7 Meal - US soybeans find support around 1,160 cents but lack upward momentum. After the bio - diesel policy is implemented, funds take profits. The crude oil price fluctuates due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. In China, the concerns about local shutdowns and supply continuity in the soybean meal market have been fully priced in, and the trading sentiment has cooled. The downstream inventory is relatively sufficient, and the spot trading volume has declined recently. Although the overall inventory is still not loose, the speculation sentiment is weak. There is a bearish expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is relatively limited [17]. 2.8 Pigs - Pig prices show signs of stabilizing. The enthusiasm of secondary fattening in the north has increased significantly, while the south is still observing, which has a certain positive impact on market sentiment. The 05 contract of the futures market rebounded, but the far - month contracts are worried about the slow weight reduction and the decline in piglet prices. The current capacity reduction is slow, the supply of piglets is sufficient, and the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish piglets is lower than last year. Although the short - term market price may be boosted by secondary fattening sentiment, the high feed price and limited profit space for large pigs require further observation of the support for secondary fattening sentiment. The 05 contract may have bottomed out, but the far - month contracts may decline further under capacity pressure [19]. 2.9 Eggs - On the supply side, the number of old hens being culled by the breeding industry is increasing slightly, and the overall egg supply remains stable due to the high inventory of laying hens, the increase in newly - laid hens, and the resumption of laying by molting hens. On the demand side, as the Qingming Festival stocking comes to an end, the demand support weakens, the shipment speed in some production areas slows down, and the downstream is more cautious in purchasing. The overall egg market transaction is mediocre, and the egg price is expected to remain low and volatile [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Futures Prices**: On March 30, the price of Y2605 soybean oil futures was 8,714 yuan, up 0.30% from March 27; the price of P2605 palm oil futures was 9,768 yuan, up 1.66%; the price of OI605 rapeseed oil futures was 9,891 yuan, up 0.14% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,980 yuan, down 0.11% from March 27; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,930 yuan, up 0.36%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,304 yuan, down 0.02% [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Y2605 soybean oil was - 36 yuan; the basis of P2605 palm oil was - 235 yuan; the basis of OI605 rapeseed oil was 413 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons, the inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2072 million tons, and the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants was not clearly stated [1]. 3.2 Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,385 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous value; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,515 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 yuan/ton, down 4.00%. The main contract's open interest was 515,084 lots, down 3.03%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,435, up 0.01%, and the valid forecasts were 371, up 9.44% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the CC Index of 3128B was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 0.05%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,489 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 0.00 million tons, down 100.0% from the previous value; the industrial inventory was 102.40 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 16.65 million tons, down 19.0%; the bonded area inventory was 47.10 million tons, up 9.8%. The yarn inventory days were 21.45 days, down 1.2%; the grey fabric inventory days were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The spinning mill C32s immediate processing profit was - 2,225.30 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 166.10 billion yuan, up 7.7%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 0.60, down 82.9%. The export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%; the export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,441 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,467 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 26 yuan/ton, down 13.04%. The main contract's open interest was 304,083 lots, down 2.81%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,862, up 3.18%, and the valid forecasts were 0, down 100.00% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5,480 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; the price in Kunming was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 39 yuan/ton, up 550.00%; the Kunming basis was - 116 yuan/ton, up 16.55%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,364 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; the price of imported Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,540 yuan/ton, down 0.45% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69% year - on - year; the cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%; the sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 240,000 tons, up 1100.00%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons [4]. 3.4 Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of jujube 2605 (main contract) was 8,775 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous value; the price of jujube 2607 was 8,960 yuan/ton, down 0.44%; the price of jujube 2609 was 9,160 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The 5 - 7 spread was - 185 yuan/ton, down 42.31%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 385 yuan/ton, down 10.00%. The open interest was 165,841 lots, down 1.70%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,273, unchanged; the valid forecasts were 131, up 43.96%; the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 4,404, up 0.92% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 0.22%; the price of first - grade jujubes was 7,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - grade jujubes was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade jujubes to the main contract was - 295 yuan/ton, up 20.27%; the basis of first - grade jujubes to the main contract was 325 yuan/ton, up 41.30% [6]. 3.5 Apples - **Futures Market**: On March 31, the price of apple 2605 (main contract) was 9,863 yuan/ton, down 1.04% from the previous value; the price of apple 2610 was 8,763 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The basis was - 1,525 yuan/ton, down 6.35%; the 5 - 10 spread was 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33%. The open interest was 81,103 lots, down 7.24% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market was 25 vehicles, up 13.64%; the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market was 11 vehicles, unchanged; the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market was 14 vehicles, up 7.69%. The national cold - storage inventory was 4.4179 million tons, down 5.69% [7]. 3.6 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On March 31, the price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port was 2,346 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from the previous value; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 209.09%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, down 6.67%. The market price at Shekou Port was 2,480 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The north - south trade profit was 9 yuan, down 68.97%. The Brazilian arrival duty - paid price was 2,366 yuan/ton, down 1.20%. The import profit was 114 yuan, up 19.70%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning was 891, down 32.55%. The trading volume was 2,032,676 lots, down 1.04%. The number of warehouse receipts was 58,377, down 1.68% [15]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 was 2,737 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value; the average price of corn starch was 2,964 yuan/ton, down 0.10%. The basis was 227 yuan/ton, up 7.08%. The spot price in Weifang was 2,980 yuan/ton, down 0.67%; the spot price in Changchun was 2,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, up 33.33%. The 05 spread between starch and corn on the disk was 391 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The Shandong starch profit was 13 yuan, up 85.71%. The open interest was 386,073 lots, up 0.23%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,510, down 3.01% [15]. 3.7 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3,240 yuan, unchanged. The price of M2605 futures was 2,937 yuan, unchanged. The basis of M2605 was 303 yuan,

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils. The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating upwards. Considering the high uncertainty in the Middle East situation, high - running crude oil prices, and the expected increase in biodiesel demand, it is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. - For protein meal, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate. The market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be affected by the Middle East situation and industrial factors, showing an oscillating trend [7]. - The sentiment in the corn market is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling. In the short - term, the price will face callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. - The supply of live pigs remains high, and the pig price is still weak. In the short - term, the price will run weakly; in the medium - term, the downward cycle continues; in the long - term, the pig price is expected to gradually bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - The sentiment in the natural rubber market is warm, and the market will maintain an oscillating trend. The price is mainly driven by the macro - logic, and there are some positive factors on the supply side [11][13]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation. The tight supply of butadiene supports the market, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - The cotton price is running strongly. In the medium - and long - term, both the domestic and international cotton markets are bullish, and in the short - term, the 05 contract will oscillate strongly [15][16]. - The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil. In the short - term, it will oscillate, and in the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [17][18]. - The pulp market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend. The price is restricted by the weak supply - demand of softwood pulp but supported by costs [20][21]. - The double - offset paper market is weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price drags down the market, and in the medium - term, the publishing tender will support the price [22][23]. - The log inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating. The high cost and low inventory support the market, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The positive expectations of biodiesel support the strengthening of edible oils [1][6]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks exist, and oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Indonesia will continue the biodiesel B50 plan, and Malaysia's palm oil production decreased and exports increased in March. The US EPA released renewable fuel obligation targets, increasing the production and consumption of biodiesel. Domestic soybean oil inventory decreased due to refinery maintenance, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased weekly, with expected increased supply [1][6][8]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - low prices [1][6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the market will continue to oscillate [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the market expects an increase in US soybean planting area, and the Middle East situation affects oil prices. The renewable fuel obligation targets are in line with expectations, and there are both positive and negative factors for US soybeans. Domestically, oil mills are actively hedging, and the market expects a decrease in soybean crushing volume. Feed enterprises' demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate [7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment is loosening, and both futures and spot prices are falling [9]. - **Logic**: Upstream, the warming temperature leads to an increase in the grain - selling rhythm. Downstream, the demand from the feed and deep - processing sectors is stable and recovering. The supply - demand pattern is gradually easing, and there is competition from substitute grains [9]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate. In the short - term, there is a risk of callbacks, and in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating range [9]. 3.1.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply remains high, and the pig price is still weak [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - term, the出栏 pressure continues. In the long - term, the production capacity reduction process is not smooth, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and warm up in the third quarter [10]. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate weakly. In the first half of the year, it is recommended to focus on the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. In the fourth quarter, the price is expected to rise moderately [10]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the market is warm [11]. - **Logic**: The market risk preference is improving, and the price is mainly driven by the macro - logic. There are some positive factors on the supply side, and the downstream inventory is relatively optimistic. There is a need for price adjustment seasonally [13]. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain an oscillating trend [13]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has cooled slightly, and it maintains a high - level oscillation [14]. - **Logic**: The tight supply of butadiene supports the market. Although the upward momentum has cooled, the supply shortage situation remains, and it is still likely to rise [14]. - **Outlook**: The market will follow the sector sentiment. If the crude oil price continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short - term [14][15]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price is running strongly [15]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of cotton in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and the demand is stable. The overall fundamentals are positive [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. In the medium - and long - term, it is bullish, and it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after callbacks [16][17]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern is still loose, waiting for the new - season harvest in Brazil [17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the price will oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices. In the medium - and long - term, if the oil price remains high, it may affect Brazil's production and tighten the global sugar supply [18]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. In the short - term, the price range is 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. In the medium - and long - term, there may be an upward driving force [18]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a stalemate and maintains an oscillating trend [20]. - **Logic**: The consumption of hardwood pulp is strong, and that of softwood pulp is weak. The demand will decrease seasonally, and the supply pressure is high. However, the cost provides support [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The price is restricted by the supply - demand but supported by costs [21][22]. 3.1.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly oscillating [22]. - **Logic**: The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure is increasing. The publishing tender in April and May will support the price, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [23]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and the price will run in the range of 4000 - 4300 yuan/ton [23]. 3.1.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The inventory is decreasing, and the market is strongly oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The port inventory is low, and the supply is affected by geopolitical factors, resulting in high costs and low supply. The demand has some resilience, but there is a risk of high - level oscillation [24]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate strongly. The price is supported by the cost but faces hedging pressure [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 No specific data information is provided in the given content for detailed summary. 3.3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) are provided. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.01% to 2829.64, the industrial products index increased by 1.10% to 2584.88, and the agricultural products index increased by 0.04% on March 30, 2026, with a 5 - day decline of 0.42%, a 1 - month increase of 0.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.12% [185][187].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The transmission of the oil price shock to the oilseeds and oils industry is not linear. The limited exposure and transmission blockage at the macro level, along with high inventory, weak demand, and corporate caution at the industrial level, together form a buffer zone for the Chinese economy. Short - term market sentiment dominates, but in the medium and long term, the market will return to the fundamentals [4][5][33]. - The current market pricing of oilseeds and oils has deviated from the fundamentals, with short - term sentiment taking the lead, and there is an obvious sentiment of waiting for price corrections to buy [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - In March 2026, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict led to a significant increase in international oil prices, causing violent fluctuations in the oilseeds and oils futures market. The report aimed to explore the real transmission path of the macro - shock to the industrial end by conducting a five - day industrial research on various industrial chain entities from March 23rd to 27th [6]. 3.2 Core Findings of Industrial Research - **Core Conclusion: Macro - sentiment Dominance and "Ineffectiveness" of Supply - demand Fundamentals**: The current market pricing has deviated from the fundamentals, and prices are mainly influenced by macro - factors such as crude oil and international conflicts. There is a clear sentiment of waiting for price corrections to buy, and there is also a phenomenon of variety differentiation [7]. - **Industrial Transmission Path of Macro - shock**: - **Logistics Cost Increase**: International tensions increased shipping costs, with container freight rising by about $500 per container (equivalent to about $50 per ton) after the conflict. Domestic road freight is also likely to increase [7][9]. - **Market Sentiment Amplification**: The sharp rise in crude oil prices drove the price of palm oil up first. The market generally adopted a strategy of buying on price corrections, and macro funds were pre - arranged [9]. - **Limited Impact on Direct Raw Material Supply**: The actual impact on agricultural products was weaker than the market sentiment hype. The extended customs inspection period has become a normal state, and enterprises have adapted to it [9]. - **"Triple Blockages" in Cost Transmission**: - **Inventory Blockage**: High inventory in the intermediate links, with multiple varieties at or above the same - period high levels, suppressed price increases [10]. - **Rigid Demand Blockage**: Downstream demand was rigid, with low price elasticity. Terminal consumption was compressed to the "pure rigid demand" level, and the price transmission cycle was long [11][12]. - **Wait - and - see Blockage**: The uncertainty of macro - events weakened corporate confidence, and enterprises were more inclined to wait and see rather than quickly transfer cost pressures to the downstream [12]. - **Demand - side Situation**: - **Weak Domestic Consumption**: Domestic consumption of vegetable oils showed a slow downward trend due to factors such as population decline, increased health awareness, and sluggish catering consumption [14]. - **Exports as a Key Variable**: Soybean oil exports might increase this year, and the industry generally focused on the volume of exports to India [14]. - **Differences in Perception among Different Industrial Chain Links**: - **Upstream Processing Enterprises**: Customs inspection has become a normal state; there were differences in soybean inventory and April startup rates; some enterprises tried to purchase Canadian soybeans; group - level unified procurement was common [15]. - **Trading Enterprises**: Currently, basis trading was the main mode, with some risk exposure. Small - scale traders mainly used fixed - price trading [16]. - **Downstream Feed Enterprises**: Foreign enterprises entered the market, and domestic enterprises expanded overseas. Different enterprises developed different types of feed based on their advantages. There was a time - lag in price transmission from raw materials to feed [17]. - **Logistics and Warehousing Enterprises**: A logistics and warehousing enterprise had a certain proportion of oil transit volume in the country. There were differences in the release time of different imported varieties [17][18]. - **Investment Companies**: An investment company focused on both domestic and foreign futures and spot markets in oilseeds and oils, combining options and futures to manage risks [18]. - **Evolution of the Industry's "Innovative" Model**: The volatile market in recent years has led to the emergence of more unilateral traders, and the "basis - washing" model has increased industry risks, reflecting a differentiation in the industry's perception of risk [19]. 3.3 Macro Coordinates: Transmission Mechanism of Oil Price Shock in China - **Limited Exposure**: China's real vulnerability to Middle East energy shocks was overestimated. China's energy structure and inventory accumulation, along with administrative regulation of refined oil prices, provided a long - term buffer [21]. - **Transmission Blockage**: The transmission from PPI to CPI was still weak. An increase in PPI mainly affected upstream industries, and the impact on core CPI was limited and short - lived [22]. - **Policy Response**: Rising oil prices might delay the pace of monetary easing. Policy variables have become an important part of industrial expectations [23]. 3.4 Integration of Macro - analysis and Industrial Reality - **Macro - verification and Micro - manifestation of Transmission Blockage**: The weak transmission from PPI to core CPI at the macro level was directly reflected in the high - inventory buffer, downstream rigid - demand resistance, and extended transmission cycle at the industrial level [24]. - **Macro - composition and Industrial Embodiment of the Buffer Zone**: China's macro - buffer zone, composed of high inventory, administrative regulation, and price - adjustment mechanisms, was manifested in the industrial behavior of enterprises such as low inventory replenishment willingness and a shift to basis trading [25]. - **Tension between Short - term Repair and Long - term Carrying Capacity**: The short - term nominal repair in the upstream did not effectively transmit to the downstream. Prolonged shocks might lead to greater demand destruction [26][27]. - **Spill - over Effects of Fertilizer and Planting Costs**: The increase in agricultural production material prices, especially fertilizer prices, would support the long - term prices of oilseeds and oils through the planting cost channel [28]. - **Long - term Game of Weather and Biodiesel Policies**: The El Niño phenomenon and biodiesel policies in Indonesia, the US, and Brazil were important topics in the industry. The actual implementation of biodiesel policies might be weaker than expected [29]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - **Non - linear Transmission of Oil Price Shock**: The oil price shock in China was not a single - line story. The buffer zone formed by macro and industrial factors made China's asset response more moderate than that of most Asian economies [30]. - **Return to Fundamentals in the Medium and Long Term**: Short - term nominal repair did not equal broad - based re - inflation. As the impact of geopolitical events weakened, the market would return to fundamentals [30]. - **Formation of Cost - transmission "Blockage" and Downstream Transformation**: The cost pressure in the upstream accumulated in the intermediate links, squeezing the industry's profit. The downstream food processing industry was undergoing integration and transformation [31]. - **Enterprise Risk - management Transformation**: Enterprises were shifting from "trend gambling" to "fine - grained risk management," but there were obvious differences in paths. The application of risk - management tools was gradually spreading, but there were still differences in acceptance and utilization depth [31][32]. - **Short - term and Long - term Market Game**: In the short term, the supply of soy - related products was tight in April and would ease after May, but this needed dynamic evaluation. In the long term, the core drivers were the El Niño phenomenon and the progress of biodiesel policies [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main 05 contract of soybean oil was running strongly this week, closing at 8,688 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 60 yuan/ton. After the final determination of the new renewable fuel standard, the market more reflected the fulfillment of bullish expectations and traded the bearish expectation of next week's area report. The tense situation in the Middle East continued, and crude oil continued to rise, which was beneficial to oils and fats. The volume of Brazilian soybean customs clearance and inspection increased recently, alleviating the near - term supply concerns. The bullish drivers for soybean oil continued, and the far - month contracts would still be supported by the cost side. It was advisable to consider laying out long positions for the 09 contract. The support level of the 09 contract was 8,460 - 8,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 8,800 - 8,810 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures fluctuated widely at a high level this week. The main 2605 contract settled up 0.37% at 9,692. Geopolitical uncertainties remained, and oil prices were running strongly, so the prices of oils and fats still had support. Fundamentally, Indonesia was considering restarting the B50 plan, which drove the market sentiment high. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil in March increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory in the main producing areas might continue to decline. In China, the demand side was still sluggish, and with the concentrated arrival of purchased ships, the domestic inventory pressure was still high. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering adding long positions. The resistance level of the main contract was in the range of 10,200 - 10,220, and the support level was in the range of 9,400 - 9,410 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. Geopolitical conflicts significantly pushed up diesel prices, the POGO spread continued to narrow, and Indonesia's consideration of restarting the B50 plan drove the market's bullish sentiment high. Fundamentally, the February MPOB report was overall bearish, but with the increase of export taxes in Indonesia in March, the export in March increased significantly month - on - month, and the main producing areas might continue to destock. The Indonesian president's speech temporarily increased the market's concerns about future exports. However, it should be noted that the recent energy price fluctuations had increased, and the subsequent evolution of the Middle East situation still had great uncertainties. It was necessary to be vigilant against the decline risk caused by the high - level correction of oil prices. It was advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before adding long positions. The resistance level of the main contract was in the range of 10,200 - 10,220, and the support level was in the range of 9,400 - 9,410 [4]. - **Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal**: This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated and adjusted, and the prices of DCE soybean No. 2 and soybean meal fell significantly. After the final determination of the new renewable fuel standard, the market more reflected the fulfillment of bullish expectations and traded the bearish expectation of next week's area report. It was expected that the downward adjustment space of CBOT soybeans was not large, and the subsequent trend was still bullish. The downside of South American basis was limited, and China's soybean import cost continued to rise, restricting the further decline of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal prices. The far - month cost side support continued. It was advisable to consider laying out long positions for the 09 contract after the correction, and it was not recommended to go long on the near - month contracts for the time being. The support level of the main 09 contract of soybean meal was 2,960 - 2,980 yuan/ton, and the resistance level was 3,080 - 3,100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main 05 contract of soybean No. 2 was 3,650 - 3,680, and the resistance level was 3,800 - 3,830 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal futures fell continuously this week. The settlement price of the main 2605 contract decreased by 4.46% week - on - week to 2,315. Geopolitical uncertainties remained, oil prices were running strongly, and Canadian rapeseed remained at a high level. After the improvement of China - Canada relations, domestic ship purchases increased continuously, and there was a large expected increase in supply. With the warming of the weather, the demand for aquaculture had a certain increase. After the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market continued to decline to a low level, the subsequent import cost might have a certain support. The short - term rapeseed meal price might continue the trend of fluctuating and bottom - hunting. It was advisable to wait and see for the time being and wait for the opportunity to go long after the stabilization. The support level of the RM contract was 2,280 - 2,300, and the resistance level was 2,500 - 2,510 [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main futures price of soybean No. 1 fell this week. Recently, the local reserve of domestic soybeans was frequently put on the market, and some local reserves failed to be sold at auction, changing the previous situation of premium transactions. The auction volume on the 26th increased to 100,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 62.4%, but the premium of 0 - 30 yuan was significantly lower than before. This reflected that in the context of the high valuation of domestic soybeans, the market's expectation for the future price was not very optimistic. At present, domestic soybean sources were mainly concentrated in the middle and upper reaches. The middle and upper reaches once held back sales at high prices, which led to a significant increase in domestic soybean prices. The downstream had an obvious resistance to high - priced soybeans, and there was an obvious game in the industrial chain. With the increase in temperature, the storage difficulty of domestic soybeans increased, and the reserve supply increased. The price - holding mentality of the middle and upper reaches slowed down, the trading volume of domestic soybeans gradually increased, and the price fluctuated downward. At present, the valuation of soybean No. 1 was high and the bullish drivers were weakening. It was expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term. It was advisable to consider lightly shorting the main 05 contract of soybean No. 1. The resistance level of the 05 contract was 4,740 - 4,760 yuan/ton, and the support level was 4,400 - 4,450 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The market had great differences between bulls and bears, and the short - term futures prices might fluctuate repeatedly. In the external market, the ending inventory of US corn was at a high level, which suppressed the price. However, the supply - demand situation of the new season continued to improve. Coupled with the recent upward shift of the crude oil price center, the cost - side support was strengthened, and the net long positions of CFTC increased. It was judged that the US corn futures prices would generally continue to move up. In the domestic corn market, the emotional disturbance continued, and the futures prices were expected to fluctuate repeatedly. In terms of supply - demand, the concentrated selling pressure of rural farmers and the increase in wheat supply, and the news of rice auctions recently, had a certain suppression on the price. However, the low channel inventory and the tight supply of high - quality grain sources limited the decline space of the futures prices. In the corn starch market, the demand returned to a moderate state, the spot price increase slowed down, and the geopolitical sentiment support still existed. The futures prices were expected to fluctuate repeatedly. It was advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. The support range of the 2605 contract of corn was 2,280 - 2,300, and the resistance range was 2,480 - 2,500. The support range of the 05 contract of corn starch was 2,670 - 2,680, and the resistance range was 2,880 - 2,900. It was advisable to consider selling out - of - the - money put options for option operations [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs was generally stable with a slight upward trend over the weekend, and the prices in some low - price areas stopped falling, but the decline of the prices of culled sows and piglets widened. The national average price of standard hogs was 9.50 yuan/kg, up about 0.02 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. In the middle of the month, relevant departments of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs organized a symposium for hog - breeding enterprises to analyze and judge the price situation and arrange market regulation work. It was expected that the purchase and storage efforts would increase. The slaughter volume rebounded significantly week - on - week last week, but slaughtering enterprises still suffered losses. At present, the number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million, a decline of 2.9%, and it was currently 101.6% of the normal inventory, still higher than the green range. In March, the price of piglets fell against the season, the loss of self - breeding and self - raising expanded, the slaughter weight continued to rebound, and farmers were forced to hold back sales. At present, the far - month contracts of hog futures showed a premium over the near - end spot and near - month contracts. The near - end spot pressure was relatively large, and the month - to - month relationship remained weak in the near term and strong in the far term. In the medium term, waiting for further confirmation of capacity reduction, the far - month premium might continue to widen. Cautious investors could hold the arbitrage strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. The 2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 10,200 as support and 10,300 - 10,600 as resistance. Aggressive investors could wait for the release of spot pressure in the medium term and lightly go long on the 2607 contract near 11,000 points. For options, it was advisable to hold a covered call strategy combination, that is, hold long futures positions + sell deep out - of - the - money call options [7][8]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs continued to rebound over the weekend, terminal consumption improved, farmers' enthusiasm for culling hens decreased, and the age of culled hens rebounded. The egg futures prices rose first and then fell recently. The far - month contracts in the industry increased their positions and declined to repair the excessive discount to the spot. The national average spot price was about 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. At present, the average cash cost of eggs in the industry followed the prices of corn and soybean meal and rebounded to 2.95 - 3.05 yuan/jin, and the breeding once again showed seasonal losses. In terms of production capacity, after farmers continued to suffer deep losses since the fourth quarter, the culling of hens also increased. At the same time, the number of newly - opened laying hens from February to March was relatively small, which led to a certain relief of the supply pressure. The supply - demand pressure might continue to improve. In terms of futures prices, the far - month peak - season contracts of eggs maintained a large premium over the current off - season spot. Cautious investors were advised to wait and see. Aggressive investors could go long on the 05 contract below 3,400 points in the short term. It was necessary to be cautious about shorting near - month contracts in the historical low - price range. The support level of the 2605 contract was 3,400 - 3,450 points, and the resistance level was 3,500 - 3,550 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | Reference Star | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 05 | The increase in reserve supply and the weakening of the price - holding mentality in the middle and upper reaches led to a continuous decline in the price of soybean No. 1. | 4,400 - 4,450 | 4,740 - 4,760 | Decline | Cautiously hold short positions | ☆ | | | Soybean No. 2 05 | The concerns about the area report were bearish after the good news of biodiesel was realized. Recently, the bullish sentiment was relatively cautious. | 3,650 - 3,680 | 3,800 - 3,830 | Fluctuation and adjustment | Wait and see for the time being | - | | | Soybean Oil 09 | Geopolitical uncertainties remained, and the oil prices were volatile at a high level. The tense situation in the Middle East continued, the customs clearance and inspection volume of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the near - term supply concerns were alleviated. The good news of biodiesel was realized. | 8,360 - 8,400 | 8,800 - 8,900 | Fluctuation and rise | Go long after stabilization | ☆ | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 05 | The prices of oils and fats still had support, and the expectation of loose domestic supply was gradually strengthening. | 9,450 - 9,460 | 10,000 - 10,100 | Wide - range fluctuation | Wait for stabilization and then go long | ☆ | | | Palm 05 | Geopolitical and biodiesel expectations were positive, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in March improved significantly. | 9,400 - 9,410 | 10,000 - 10,100 | Fluctuation and upward | Cautiously hold long positions | ☆ | | Protein | Soybean Meal 05 | The tense situation in the Middle East continued, US soybeans fluctuated widely, the Brazilian basis was firm, and the cost - side support of China's soybean imports was expected to continue. The consumption of soybean meal still had resilience. | 2,960 - 2,980 | 3,080 - 3,100 | Fluctuation | Go long on far - month contracts after correction | ☆ | | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | There was a large expected increase in near - term supply. | 2,280 - 2,300 | 2,500 - 2,510 | Fluctuation and bottom - hunting | Wait and see for the time being | - | | Energy and By - products | Corn 05 | The short - term pressure on the price came from the selling pressure of rural farmers, the increase in wheat supply, and the expectation of rice auctions. However, the low channel inventory and the tight supply of high - quality grain sources provided medium - term support. The futures prices were expected to fluctuate within a range. | 2,280 - 2,300 | 2,480 - 2,500 | Range fluctuation | Go long on dips | ☆ | | | Starch 05 | The low spot inventory provided slight support to the market, the cost side fluctuated within a range, and it followed the range fluctuation in the short term. | 2,670 - 2,680 | 2,880 - 2,900 | Range fluctuation | Go long on dips | ☆ | | Livestock | Hogs 05 | The feed price stopped falling and rebounded, and there were policies to reduce production capacity. | 9,500 - 9,800 | 10,000 - 10,300 | Low - level fluctuation | Go long on dips | - | | | Eggs 05 | The production capacity pressure was relieved, and consumption improved marginally. | 3,400 - 3,450 | 3,550 - 3,600 | Fluctuation and bottom - hunting | Go long on dips | - | [11] 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies | Sector | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No. 1 | 4,580 | 4,580 | 27 | 94 | | | Soybean No. 2 | 3,950 | 3,950 | 185 | 11 | | | Peanut | 7,400 | 7,400 | - 342 | 80 | | Oils | Soybean Oil | 9,020 | 9,020 | 202 | - 2 | | | Rapeseed Oil | 10,350 | 0 | 47

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements this week. Market sentiment was dominated by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the sharp fluctuations in international crude oil prices. In the long - term, palm oil has entered a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and its export faces a risk of weakening. For soybean oil, the supply pressure remains, but demand in the biodiesel field is boosted. For rapeseed oil, the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, but the current import crushing profit situation may affect future supply [72]. - The recommended operation strategy is to be cautious and wait - and - see, focusing on the implementation progress of the US biofuel policy, the USDA planting intention report, and the quarterly inventory report, and avoiding blind chasing of highs or bottom - fishing [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The domestic vegetable oil sector showed high - level volatile movements, with slight differentiation in the trends of different varieties. As of March 27, the closing prices of the soybean oil Y2605 contract, palm oil P2605 contract, and rapeseed oil OI2605 contract were 8,688 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.7%), 9,768 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.51%), and 9,877 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 0.01%) respectively [12]. - The Malaysian palm oil market also showed high - level volatile movements, with a cumulative increase of nearly 14.2% since March. As of March 27, the BMD crude palm oil futures main contract closed up 0.83% at 4,612 ringgit/ton [15]. - The CBOT soybeans and soybean oil showed an oscillating and strengthening trend. As of March 27 (US - China time), the CBOT soybeans May contract was at 1,159.5 cents/bushel (down 1.21%), and the CBOT soybean oil May contract was at 67.22 cents/pound (down 1.18%) [20]. 3.2 Fundamental Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on imported rapeseed from Canada from March 1, 2026, for a period of 5 years, and suspended the additional discriminatory tariffs on some imported goods from Canada from March 1 to December 31, 2026, canceling the 100% anti - discriminatory tariff on imported Canadian rapeseed meal [6][20]. - Malaysia's February palm oil production was 1,284,699 tons (a 18.55% month - on - month decrease), exports were 1,127,605 tons (a 22.48% month - on - month decrease), imports were 76,276 tons (a 136.03% month - on - month increase), and inventory was 2,704,286 tons (a 3.94% month - on - month decrease) [6][21]. - From March 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated to have decreased by 11.21% month - on - month [6][21]. - The average expected soybean planting area in the US in 2026 is 85.549 million acres, and the soybean inventory on March 1, 2026, is expected to be 2.063 billion bushels, an 8% increase year - on - year [7][21]. - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 25, 2026, increased by 38.4% - 51% compared with the same period last month according to different survey agencies [7][8][22]. - Brazil's estimated soybean export volume in March is 15.87 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 16.32 million tons [8][24]. 3.3 Domestic Oil Basis Changes - The basis of 24 - degree palm oil in the mainstream coastal markets showed low - level volatile recovery. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions varied [30]. - The basis of coastal soybean oil strengthened synchronously, and the regional differences converged. As of March 27, the basis quotes in different regions were provided [30]. - The basis of coastal rapeseed oil was basically stable. As of March 27, there was a regional differentiation with the East being stronger and the South being weaker [30]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Situation 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - Demand - In February, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased, exports declined, and inventory decreased but was still at a relatively high level. The profit of palm - based biodiesel was repaired, but the edible demand was under pressure, and the export outlook was not optimistic [34][38]. - From March 20 - 26, 4 new palm oil purchase ships were added in China, with different delivery schedules [39]. - As of March 20, 2026, the national key - area commercial palm oil inventory was 808,200 tons, a 4.01% month - on - month decrease and a 108.14% year - on - year increase [41]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - Demand - The USDA's March supply - demand report slightly revised the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand data. The global soybean supply pattern remained loose, and the domestic medium - and long - term soybean supply was also abundant [45]. - Near - term soybean meal fluctuations were affected by customs clearance and arrival issues, but the long - term supply was expected to be loose. After April, a large amount of Brazilian soybeans would arrive in China [49]. - As of the week of March 20, the actual soybean oil production was 378,200 tons, and the operating rate was 54.81%, a 1.07% month - on - month increase [51]. - As of March 20, the national commercial soybean oil inventory was 1.0537 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease and a 3.94% year - on - year increase [54]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - Demand - The estimated arrival volume of imported rapeseed in coastal areas was increasing from March to May [58]. - As of the week of March 20, the rapeseed crushing volume and rapeseed oil production decreased. With the arrival of rapeseed purchase ships, production was expected to recover [60][62]. - As of March 26, the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed was slightly profitable in the spot market but inverted in the futures market. If the situation continued, it might affect future supply [65]. - As of March 20, the national imported rapeseed inventory was at a historical low and decreasing rapidly, while the rapeseed oil inventory increased slightly, and the unexecuted contracts increased, indicating strong downstream demand [70].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: 豆一 (★★★), 豆油 (★★★), 标油 (★★★), 薬油 (★★★), 豆粕 (★★★), 菜粕 (★★★), 玉米 (★★★), 生猪 (★★★), 鸡蛋 (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans are weak, and the marginal supply will increase due to the continued auction next week. The futures contract is likely undergoing a rollover operation. The price guidance needs to focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation on energy prices, as well as macro - expectations and capital trends [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The planting area and inventory of US soybeans are expected to increase. The soybean and soybean meal market needs to pay close attention to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [3]. - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rise following the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain. The price guidance depends on the Middle - East situation, macro - expectations, and capital trends [4]. - The vegetable oil and meal market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate weakly. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat may impact corn prices [7]. - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult to achieve [8]. - The spot price of eggs generally rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans decline, and the marginal supply will increase due to the auction. The futures contract may be rolling over. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and macro - factors [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the US soybean planting area and inventory are expected to increase. Multiple factors affect the soybean and soybean meal market [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The prices rise with the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fluctuate weakly. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs declines, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9].

Report Overview - Report Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Industry: Agricultural Products - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Oils and Fats**: The current oils and fats market is mainly driven by external crude oil. With the ongoing Middle - East conflict supporting oil prices, the demand for biofuel raw materials is boosted, keeping the oils and fats sector at a high level. However, if the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct from high levels due to factors like seasonal palm oil production increases, more imported soybeans, and weak demand. [8] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in the spot market is increasing as the temperature rises, but the remaining grassroots grain is limited. The demand from the feed and deep - processing industries is improving, and the overall supply - demand pattern may remain tight. Corn futures prices may be mainly range - bound and strong, but the upside space is limited. [88] - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs remains abundant, and although the demand is slowly recovering, the supply - demand situation is still loose. Spot prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and futures prices of contracts 05/07 are expected to trend weakly. [131] - **Cotton**: The external cotton market is strong, while the domestic market lacks new driving forces. Short - term prices are range - bound and rising. Attention should be paid to the new cotton planting expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season. [137] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is driven by external crude oil. The Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and biofuel demand. It is recommended to buy at low prices and reduce positions when crude oil surges sharply. If the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct. [8] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of March 27, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China increased by 130 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [10] - **Domestic Three - Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 203.48 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. [20] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: The soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills decreased slightly, and the import soybean inventory in ports decreased. The crushing rate of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [21][28] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In March 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export data was strong, supporting the price of palm oil. [34][38] - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybeans for the first time in eight weeks, set a record high in net long positions in Chicago soybean oil, and continued to buy net in the CBOT soybean meal futures market for the eighth consecutive week. [42] 3.2 Corn - **Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted narrowly in the range this week. The futures price of the main 2605 contract on the Dalian Exchange fell by 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. [46] - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress continued to increase this week, with an overall slowdown compared to the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the inventory in southern ports decreased. [49][50][52] - **Domestic Substitutes**: The wheat market was weak this week, and the price gap between corn and wheat widened. [53] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In January - February 2026, the import of grains increased year - on - year, and the import of some grains increased significantly. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the substitution advantage of imported grains still exists. [54] - **Feed Demand**: From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed output increased year - on - year. The feed demand is expected to continue to increase slightly due to the growth of hog inventory. The average inventory time of feed enterprises increased. [67][73][76] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The starch production rate and output increased, and the processing profit improved. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased. [80][81] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield, and output in China are expected to increase, the import volume remains unchanged, and the demand is expected to increase. [85] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly range - bound and strong, and the futures price of contracts 2605/07 is expected to be the same, but the upside is limited. Spot enterprises are recommended to replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors are recommended to hold long - term long positions and reduce positions on rallies. [88][89] 3.3 Hogs - **Market Review**: This week, the spot price of hogs continued to fall, and the futures price of the main contract LH2605 also declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was seasonally weak. [90][92] - **Fundamental Overview** - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows decreased. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change based on the inventory of breeding sows, with a slight increase in the first half of the year. [97][98][99] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets decreased, and the inventory of piglets decreased slightly. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change accordingly. [108] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs increased in February, and the proportion of large hogs over 140 kg decreased. The secondary fattening situation was average. [110][111] - **Current Supply**: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in March increased, and the average slaughter weight increased slightly. [114][115] - **Import Supply**: In January - February 2026, the cumulative import volume of pork decreased year - on - year. [121] - **Secondary Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening weakened, and the cost decreased. [125] - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased, and it is expected to rise slightly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. [129][130] - **Outlook**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 is expected to trend weakly. Futures investors are recommended to hold short positions and reduce positions on dips. Hog - farming enterprises are recommended to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter. [131] 3.4 Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external cotton market was strong, and Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a range. The domestic spot cotton basis weakened, and the downstream market was generally trading. The USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, but the market has focused on the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the USDA cotton planting intention survey results. [135][136][137] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA March supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season, increasing the output, trade volume, and ending inventory, and reducing the consumption. [138] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of March 19, 2025/2026, the net signing and shipment of US cotton increased week - on - week. [145] - **Textile Enterprises**: As of March 20, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased, the yarn inventory decreased, the fabric inventory decreased, and the operating load of yarn and fabric increased. [147] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the cotton 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread both decreased. [158] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 17, the non - commercial net long positions in US cotton increased. As of March 26, the total number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased. [160]