养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月28日星期六 棕榈油：节后首周棕榈油冲高回落，盘面再度跌至节前低点附近， 高频数据显示2月马棕出口环比显著下滑，产地库存高位，棕榈油 价格承压。3月印尼将提高出口关税，间接利多马棕出口，美伊军 事冲突也将带动原油及植物油拉涨，期价下 ...

油料周报 油料产业周报 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权力 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 4、马来西亚棕榈油理事会（MPOC）指出，尽管面临印尼B50生物柴油强制令推迟和马来西亚库存高企 等持续逆风，但棕榈油价格在整个1月份一直坚挺在每吨4000林吉特上方，这表明当前价格正在形成短 期结构性底部。 5、加拿大统计局发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2026年1月，加拿大油菜籽压榨量为1053420吨，较前一个 月减少2.17%，较去年同期增加4.24%。 6、一些欧佩克+代表表示，预计在本周末召开会议审查4月政策时，该组织将同意恢复小幅增产。据三 位代表称，欧佩克+在周日视频会议前尚未确定行动方案。美伊冲突风险不断升级也使前景蒙上阴影。 消息人士称，欧佩克+将在3月1日的会议上考虑将4月份的石油日产量上调13.7万桶。 7、美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔2月25日表示，美国对部分国家加征的"全球进口关税"税率将从新近实 施的10%升至15%或更高，但他未透露任何具体的贸易伙伴或其他细节。20日，美国最高法院裁定，特 朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。 注：其他关于大豆与豆粕资讯可看公众号第一篇《豆粕晚评》 二、【每 ...

| | | | V V SUIL FUIURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月13日 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ななな | | 【豆一】 临近假期,盘面呈现粕强油弱的状态,豆棕菜油呈现减仓态势。美豆上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。 我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少，主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易谈判提升需求，可以鼓励 供应端扩张,面积同比增长,单产维持在历史高点，也会大概率去库,因此易于提升CBOT大豆价格，我们要谨 慎美豆油和美豆震荡 ...

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月13日 (原油) 隔夜原油大幅走低，布伦特原油跌破68美元/桶。特朗普表示谈判可能持续一个月，缓解了市场对近 期军事行动的担忧。IEA月报将今年全球石油需求增长预期从93万桶/日下调至85万桶/日。 供应 端，1月美国受风暴天气干扰，原油产量明显下滑；同时，停产与出口受限亦削弱了啥萨克斯坦、俄 罗斯及委内瑞拉的供应。IEA预计2026年原油供应过剩将超过370万桶/日，创年度平均水平的历史 新高。我们此前提示，油价在70美元/桶附近涨势明显松动，次日在地缘溢价回撤与库存累积的双重 压制下,原油遭遇大幅回调。鉴于奉节假期较长、美伊谈判前景仍不明朗，建议投资者注意规避风 险。 (贵金属) 隔夜贵金属震荡。本周美国非农就业超预期，降息预期受到压制，市场等待今晚CPI数据。她缘前景 仍存不确定性,短期责金属波动率逐渐下降,震荡等待驱动,保持观望。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜转跌，贵金属与美国股市联动下滑,金银关注非农就业指标超预期;而美股担忧Al发展影 响传统行业营收,且不确定就业潜力强弱。沪铜持仓缩减至55万手,价格跌破MA4 ...

证券日报网讯2月12日，海新能科（300072）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司深耕生物柴油行 业多年，已经构建成熟的原料供应体系；针对酸化油和废弃动物油脂不断优化预处理技术，完成原料适 应测试和资源渠道储备；研究棉籽油、含油林木等创新原料种类。公司在催化净化材料方面进行了超过 20年的持续研究，包括铁基净化材料、钌基催化材料等，形成了材料研发、生产的完整产业链，开发出 了铁酸钙、磁性氧化铁、无定型羟基氧化铁等一系列脱硫材料以及悬浮床加氢催化剂、钌基低压氨合成 催化剂等。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having various outlooks such as oscillation, oscillation - weakening, and oscillation - strengthening [1][6][7]. - For different commodities: - Oils: Narrow - range oscillation, with multiple factors affecting supply and demand, and a suggestion to consider buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - Protein meals: Domestic double meals oscillate mainly, with international factors supporting US soybeans and domestic factors affecting the market [1][7]. - Corn: Oscillates, with industry news and emotions affecting futures, and attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. - Pigs: Oscillates weakly, with supply - demand being loose, and different trends in the short, medium, and long - term [9]. - Natural rubber: Oscillates, with attention to previous high resistance, and the market influenced by capital and fundamentals [11][12]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillates upward following natural rubber, with the mid - term bullish logic remaining unchanged [13]. - Cotton: Oscillates strongly in the medium - long term, waiting for new driving forces in the short term [14]. - Sugar: Oscillates weakly in the medium - long term, with a downward driving force due to expected oversupply [16]. - Pulp: Oscillates, with weak supply - demand before the Spring Festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. - Double - gum paper: Oscillates weakly, with the market in a low - level oscillation during the holiday [18]. - Logs: Oscillates, with the spot being stable and the market in a range - bound operation [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1. Oils - **View**: Oils show narrow - range oscillation. The US Department of Agriculture's February report adjusted relevant data, and the market is affected by factors such as demand expectations, biodiesel policies, and export performance. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging strategies at low - callback levels [6]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by capital emotions, and the industrial end has different supply - demand situations for different oils. For example, soybeans have relatively sufficient supply, and palm oil has inventory and export issues [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all oscillate [6]. 3.1.2. Protein Meals - **View**: Optimistic emotions support US soybeans, and domestic double meals oscillate mainly [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA's February supply - demand report is bearish, but the market has optimistic export expectations and the US biodiesel plan boosts US soybean oil. Domestically, factors such as pre - holiday capital flight, logistics stagnation, and expected post - holiday cost reduction affect the market [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillate [1][7]. 3.1.3. Corn - **View**: Industry news disturbs the market, and corn increases positions and rises [8]. - **Logic**: Futures are affected by industry news and emotions, while the spot market is gradually entering the holiday, with stable prices and low trading volume. Attention should be paid to factors such as grain sales progress, policy grain auctions, and wheat conditions [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to post - holiday trading and inventory replenishment rhythms [8]. 3.1.4. Pigs - **View**: Supply - demand is loose, and spot prices continue to weaken [9]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, there are different situations in the short, medium, and long - term; demand shows an increase in slaughter volume; inventory shows a continuous decrease in average pig weight. The price is expected to weaken in the short - term and is affected by different production capacities in different periods [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a potential bottom - out and recovery in the second half of 2026 [9]. 3.1.5. Natural Rubber - **View**: Pay attention to previous high resistance [11][12]. - **Logic**: The rubber price runs strongly, mainly driven by capital emotions. The short - term support is effective, and the overall is in a bullish trend. The current trading logic is mainly affected by the macro - environment, with relatively weak fundamentals but good expectations [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with limited fundamental variables and increasing capital attention [12]. 3.1.6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Follow natural rubber to oscillate upward [13]. - **Logic**: The BR market follows natural rubber to rise slightly, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The raw material market is affected by factors such as export news and downstream demand [13]. - **Outlook**: Mid - term oscillation - strengthening, with a need for adjustment in the short - term due to rapid price increase [13]. 3.1.7. Cotton - **View**: Cotton price rebounds [14]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range. After the festival, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, the terminal demand may drive the price to rise. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is expected to be in tight balance, and the planting area in Xinjiang may decrease [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - strengthening, with a suggestion to buy on dips [14]. 3.1.8. Sugar - **View**: Sugar price oscillates weakly in the medium - long term [16]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have oversupply in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. The supply increase puts pressure on the price [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with a suggestion to short on rebounds [16]. 3.1.9. Pulp - **View**: Spot prices are almost stagnant, and futures fluctuate independently [17]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply - demand is weak, with low demand from the terminal and downstream. After the festival, the seasonal recovery of demand may bring marginal benefits. The valuation support has weakened, and the downward space is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with weak supply - demand before the festival and expected improvement after the festival [17]. 3.1.10. Double - gum Paper - **View**: Factories enter the holiday, and the market maintains low - level oscillation [18]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the trading in the double - gum paper market ends, with stable spot prices and low - level oscillation. The industry is affected by factors such as production line operation, downstream consumption, and market demand [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation - weakening, with the market expected to be stagnant during the holiday and attention to the post - holiday consumption recovery [18]. 3.1.11. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market operates within a range [20]. - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market trading is basically stagnant, with stable spot prices and range - bound oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as news, valuation, supply, and delivery [20]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the market having no new driving force in the short - term and maintaining range - bound operation [20]. 3.2. Commodity Index - On February 11, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index), and plate index (agricultural product index) of CITIC Futures all showed certain changes. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.32%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.27%, the industrial product index increased by 0.41%, and the agricultural product index increased by 0.34% on that day [179][180].

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月11日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 豆油 | な☆☆ ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 菜粕 | ☆☆☆ な☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 豆一增仓强势上涨。期货市场大幅增仓，市场预期偏乐观，关注节前资金的动向。目前现货市场交投清淡。近 期的政策端拍卖大豆成交价格偏强,给市场带来提振。美国农业部上调了巴西大豆产量,美豆供需未调整,报 告偏空。不过美豆仍上涨,受助于出口乐观预期和豆油提振。由于外盘大豆价格近期偏强,对国产大豆也有一 定的溢出效应。我们倾向26/27年度美豆供需平衡表压力同比减少,主要是通过发展生物柴油以及贸易 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is in a fermenting stage [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is in a fermenting stage [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decrease but poor operability on the market [1] - Eggs: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides investment ratings for each product and elaborates on the influencing factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market expectations. It also reminds investors to pay attention to risks, especially around holidays and during important data release periods [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The futures market has significantly increased its positions, with an optimistic market expectation. Attention should be paid to the movement of pre - holiday funds. The spot market has light trading. Policy - end soybean auctions have had strong transaction prices, and the strong price of external soybeans has an overflow effect on domestic soybeans. The 26/27 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet pressure is expected to decrease year - on - year, which is conducive to raising the CBOT soybean price [2] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - After the phone call between the leaders of China and the US, there are expectations of increased US soybean purchases. In the short term, the continuous soybean meal may continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom. The weekly soybean crushing volume in China is high, and the soybean meal inventory has exceeded 900,000 tons. The 2 - month USDA supply - demand report is about to be released. For rapeseed meal, the export situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively good, and the domestic inventory is relatively low. The short - term trends of US soybeans and continuous soybean meal are differentiated [3] Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - As the holiday approaches, the prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil on the market have declined with reduced positions. The Malaysian palm oil report is bullish, with production lower than expected, export higher than expected, and inventory showing a month - on - month decline but still at a high level. The US biodiesel policy is positive for soybean oil prices. The news of the resumption of normal rapeseed imports from Canada and further procurement of rapeseed shipments in China have suppressed rapeseed oil prices [4] Corn - The national corn sales progress has reached 61%. The closing prices of Beigang Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are flat compared to the previous day. The Spring Festival stocking of downstream enterprises is basically over, and the trading is light. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning has decreased. The short - term Dalian corn futures are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [5] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, and the slaughter volume has increased significantly recently. However, due to the high - speed slaughtering, the price has continuously dropped. The industry's average slaughter weight is still high, and the inventory is higher than the same period last year. There is a need to be vigilant about the post - holiday supply pressure. In the long - term, the pig price is expected to hit a low point in the first half of next year [6] Eggs - Some egg contracts have a large intraday decline and hit a new low. The overall market has increased its positions by nearly 10,000 lots. The spot price is stable today. The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but still decreased year - on - year. The egg price in the first half of 2026 still has upward - repair momentum. The futures market has already reflected the expected short - term weakness of the spot. The subsequent trading strategy is to wait for the spot low around the Spring Festival and then configure long positions in the first - half - year 2026 egg futures contracts [7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global vegetable oil supply is expected to increase in the 2025/26 fiscal year, but consumption growth is stronger, leading to a decrease in the inventory-to-consumption ratio, projected to drop to around 3% for the fourth consecutive year [2][3] - The demand for edible and industrial uses is the main driver, with biodiesel production accounting for over 25% of total vegetable oil consumption [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The U.S. is expected to introduce new policies that could significantly increase the mandatory blending volume of biodiesel, potentially raising the requirement from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to between 5.1 and 5.6 billion gallons, a 60% increase, which will substantially boost U.S. soybean oil demand [5][7] - Different countries use various types of vegetable oils for biodiesel production, leading to varied market responses. The U.S. primarily uses soybean oil, while Indonesia focuses on palm oil, and the EU utilizes multiple types [6][8] - Indonesia plans to maintain its B40 biodiesel blending policy due to insufficient subsidy levels, while potentially increasing export tariffs to support its biodiesel industry [1][8] Market Dynamics - Global palm oil production growth is slowing, while industrial demand continues to rise, leading to decreased export capacity. The new U.S. clean fuel policy is expected to further drive soybean demand, impacting the global supply landscape [9] - The international market is seeing price increases for soybean and canola due to U.S. clean fuel policies, while domestic prices in China are constrained by a large livestock sector and low-cost formulations [10] Price Trends and Impacts - India imports a significant amount of palm oil (8-9 million tons annually), and fluctuations in palm oil prices compared to soybean oil will influence its import decisions [11][12] - The expected decline in Malaysian palm oil inventory from 3.05 million tons in December 2025 to around 2.9 million tons in January 2026 is attributed to seasonal production cuts and drought conditions in Indonesia [14] Biodiesel Policy Implications - The global biodiesel policy in 2026 is likely to favor soybean oil, with Brazil expected to increase biodiesel production by 400,000 tons and the U.S. by 2 million tons, consuming all production increases [13] - The lack of a B50 policy in Indonesia may reduce demand but is expected to be offset by overall consumption increases, maintaining price support [17] Supply Chain Considerations - The supply chain for vegetable oils is highly concentrated, with 70% of soybean cultivation in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, and over 80% of palm oil produced in Malaysia and Indonesia [15] - The volatility of crude oil prices significantly impacts the energy attributes of vegetable oils, with around 25% of vegetable oil used for biodiesel production [16] Future Outlook - The current weather conditions in South America are favorable for soybean production, with Brazil's output expected to be between 176 million and 181 million tons, ensuring ample global supply [18] - The government's strategic release of stored soybeans has alleviated supply tightness, and with a large new soybean harvest expected, the likelihood of future shortages is low [19] - Despite high oilseed inventories, soybean oil prices may remain relatively strong in the short term due to overall supply dynamics [20]