农产品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周四，玉米先跌后涨，主力 | 2511 | 合约低开后反弹，期价以小阳线收盘。十一长 | 假期间，现货市场走势分化，东北产区新玉米上市量增加，玉米报价承压下行。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东、河北持续降雨天气影响玉米收割及晾晒，玉米现货市场新、陈报价拉大。 | 国庆假日期间东北玉米价格以下行调整为主，上货量较大，导致价格下调；假期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 的最后两天，北港价格略有反弹，前期价格下调明显，集港略有减少。 | 国庆期 | 间华北地区玉米价格维持震荡运行，期间价格有涨有跌，但整体有所下移。从供 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 应来看，国庆期间深加工企业玉米到货 ...

策略参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 品种观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于美国政府停摆，美农报告暂停发布，美豆期价在缺乏报告数据的指引下，对国内市场的关 联影响有所减弱。国内现货采购谨慎，市场呈现"高库存、弱消耗"格局。下游看好中期价格修复空间，积 极布局远月合同锁定成本。由于大豆现货价格已逼近成本线，油厂压榨亏损，挺价意愿强烈。短期豆粕震 荡格局不改。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 < ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

根据路透对十位交易商、种植商和分析师的调查中值估计，马来西亚9月棕榈油库存可能较8月减少 2.5%，至215万公吨。 后市来看，棕榈油期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 10月9日，国内期市油脂油料板块涨跌不一。其中，棕榈油期货主力合约开盘报9452.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，棕榈油主力涨近4%，触及三周新高。 印尼能源部长表示，该国正在推进其计划，将在2026年强制推行B50生物柴油，以减少汽油进口。印尼 目前是全球最大的棕榈油生产国，当前强制实施B40生物柴油计划。 马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数据，马来西亚9月1-30日棕榈油产量预估减少2.35%，其中马来 半岛减少6.17%，沙巴增加2.35%，沙捞越增加6.62%，东马来西亚增加3.44%，预估9月马来西亚棕榈油 总产量为181万吨。 正信期货表示，豆系产地相对平淡，马棕累库节奏放缓、印尼棕榈油需求强劲，节日期间马棕涨约4% 并逼近前高，预计节后国内油脂将跟盘上涨。棕榈油前期剩余多单及节前低点新建多单继续持有。 宁证期货分析称，供应方面，主产国进入减产期，印尼非法种植园整改，利多棕榈油价格；需求方面国 内餐饮 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bonds: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bonds: Rebound [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Range oscillation [6] - Pulp: Consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [6] - Bean meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a downward bias [6] - Soybean No.2: Oscillation with a downward bias [7] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slightly upward bias [7] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore has increased uncertainty, with short - term support under supply - side interference. The follow - up focus is on the actual impact on the supply side and October steel demand [2]. - In October, the supply of coking coal in China is expected to run stably, with limited increase. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and its trend follows coking coal. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy [2]. - For rebar, the futures price has a low static valuation. The supply side may shrink, and the focus is on the demand recovery in October. The price needs to see rapid post - festival inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - The glass market has short - term support from the replenishment market, but the demand is difficult to improve fundamentally. The supply - demand is basically balanced, and the follow - up should pay attention to production and policy changes [2]. - The stock index market is volatile, with an optimistic upward outlook. Stock index long positions should maintain the current position, while Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - The logic for the rise in gold prices has not completely reversed. It is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. - Logs are expected to oscillate in a range, with supply - side pressure not significant and an increase in daily outbound volume [6]. - Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom, affected by cost support and demand factors [6]. - The oil and fat market continues the range - oscillation pattern, with significant differentiation among varieties. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean sowing and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [6]. - Bean meal prices are expected to move downward in the short term, affected by supply and demand factors such as new soybean listings and changes in Chinese demand [6][7]. - Live pig prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward in the short term, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand [7]. - Natural rubber prices may show wide - range oscillation, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [9]. - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors, with different trends [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swaps rose slightly. There are new concerns about supply, and the short - term supply - side interference provides support. The follow - up core is steel demand in October [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: In October, domestic coking coal supply is expected to be stable, with production lower than last year. Coke's first - round price increase was implemented, and the second - round basically failed. Coke supply - demand contradiction is not large, and it follows coking coal [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: During the long holiday, Tangshan billet prices were stable. Rebar futures have a low valuation, and the supply side may shrink. The focus is on demand recovery in October, and the price needs rapid post - festival de - stocking [2]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment was boosted by news, and prices rose. Supply was stable last week, and there was short - term support from replenishment. However, long - term demand is suppressed by the real estate adjustment [2]. - **Soda ash**: Although the report mentions it in the context, there is no specific in - depth analysis other than the overall "oscillation" rating [2]. Financial and Precious Metals - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is volatile. The overall upward outlook is optimistic, and stock index long positions should maintain the current position [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are volatile, and Treasury bond trends are weak. Treasury bond long positions should be held lightly [4]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold's pricing mechanism is changing. The logic for the rise has not reversed, and it is expected to show strong - biased oscillation, affected by the Fed's policy and geopolitical risks [4][6]. Light Industry - **Logs**: Port daily shipment volume increased, and supply is expected to be tight. The cost support is enhanced, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [6]. - **Pulp**: Spot prices fluctuated. Cost support is enhanced, but demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6]. - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable. Production is relatively stable, and demand is expected to improve, but prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oil and Fats - **Soybean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The oil and fat market shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. There are differences among varieties, affected by factors such as Argentine exports, biodiesel, and seasonal production [6]. - **Bean meal, Rapeseed meal**: Although there is some support from US domestic demand, new soybean listings and Brazilian production potential bring supply pressure. Prices are expected to move downward [6][7]. Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is declining, and supply is sufficient. Downstream demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly downward [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyester - **Rubber**: Supply - side pressure in Yunnan has decreased, while Hainan's output is lower than expected. Demand has improved slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Prices may show wide - range oscillation [9]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are mainly affected by cost, supply, and demand factors. Their prices show different trends such as oscillation, wait - and - see, etc. [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report anticipates a differentiated trend in the oil and fat market and suggests waiting for opportunities for supply - demand resonance. It provides investment advice on unilateral trading, basis trading, inter - month arbitrage, and cross - variety spread trading for different types of oils [1][2]. - Palm oil is expected to be short - term volatile and long - term bullish; soybean oil is short - term bearish and medium - term neutral; rapeseed oil shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern with a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In Q3 2025, the futures prices of the three major domestic oils showed differentiation. Palm oil prices were volatile from July to September, affected by Indonesia's policies and Malaysia's inventory and demand. Soybean oil prices were range - bound due to factors like US soybean production and potential biodiesel demand. Rapeseed oil prices strengthened due to supply shortages and inventory depletion [9]. 3.2 Global Oil and Fat Supply - Demand Overview 3.2.1 Global Oilseeds - In the 2025/26 season, global oilseeds are expected to be in a tighter situation. The ending inventory is estimated to be 143.08 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 16.1%, down 0.13 percentage points year - on - year. Demand growth exceeds inventory growth [12][13]. 3.2.2 Global Oils and Fats - The global oil and fat market is becoming increasingly tight, mainly driven by the growing demand for biodiesel. Production is expected to reach 234.69 million tons in 2025/26, up 2.47% year - on - year, while demand is expected to reach 229.28 million tons, up 3.04% [14]. 3.3 Palm Oil Origin Situation 3.3.1 Malaysia - The traditional palm oil production reduction season in Malaysia is approaching in Q4, and there may be an early reduction in September due to abnormal precipitation and floods. Exports in September are expected to increase before the Indian Festival of Lights, and inventory is expected to decline slightly [17][21]. 3.3.2 Indonesia - In 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase, with cumulative production from January to July reaching 33.496 million tons, up 3.35 million tons year - on - year. Domestic consumption is increasing due to the implementation of B40, and exports have not decreased as expected [25][30]. 3.4 Soybean Origin Situation 3.4.1 Brazil - In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 171.47 million tons, up 13.3% year - on - year. Exports are expected to be 106.65 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The implementation of B15 in 2025 will increase the demand for soybean oil. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in winter 2025, which may affect new - crop yields [35][38]. 3.4.2 United States - In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean planting area is estimated to be 81.1 million acres, down about 7% year - on - year. As of September 21, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The total production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The new RVO proposed by the EPA will increase the demand for vegetable oils [40][55]. 3.5 Rapeseed Origin Situation 3.5.1 Canada - In the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease by 2.0% year - on - year, but production is expected to increase by 4.1% due to higher yields. Exports have been poor due to China's anti - dumping measures [58][64]. 3.6 Major Consumer Countries' Situation 3.6.1 India - In August 2025, India's imports of palm oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil reached a peak due to pre - festival stocking. In September, imports decreased slightly but remained at a high level. After the Festival of Lights, consumption will enter a seasonal off - season [69][70]. 3.6.2 China - For palm oil, imports are expected to weaken in Q4, and inventory is expected to remain around 500,000 tons from October to November. For soybean oil, imports are affected by Sino - US trade frictions, and supply is increasing. For rapeseed oil, production is affected by raw material shortages, and inventory is expected to decline rapidly [73][90]. 3.7 Spread Situation 3.7.1 Basis - Palm oil basis is expected to be weak in Q4; soybean oil basis is expected to oscillate weakly; rapeseed oil basis is expected to strengthen [93]. 3.7.2 Inter - month Spread - For the 1 - 5 spread in Q4, palm oil has a positive arbitrage logic, soybean oil has a reverse arbitrage logic, and rapeseed oil has a positive arbitrage logic [100]. 3.7.3 Cross - Variety Spread - In Q4, it is recommended to go long on palm oil or rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil [102].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The global commodity market exhibited a mixed performance this week, with precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and energy chemicals showing strong results, while some industrial products and agricultural commodities faced downward pressure [1] - Key factors influencing market sentiment include Federal Reserve policy expectations and economic data, alongside geopolitical risks and changes in supply-demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Precious and Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a cumulative increase of over 2% this week, driven by rising risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [2] - The market anticipates the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, which diminishes the appeal of dollar-denominated assets and directs funds towards precious metals [2] - Copper prices experienced a significant breakthrough, with both Shanghai and international copper prices rising over 3%, primarily due to a sudden event at the world's second-largest copper mine [2] Group 3: Fuel Oil Market - Fuel oil futures, especially high-sulfur varieties, performed notably well this week, supported by tightening supply-demand fundamentals and cost factors [3] - Russian refining facilities have been under attack, leading to a sharp decline in fuel oil exports, which alleviates supply pressure on high-sulfur fuel oil [3] - In Asia, demand for high-sulfur fuel oil is expected to rebound, while summer power demand in the Middle East continues to provide market support [3] Group 4: Palm Oil Market - The palm oil market exhibited wide fluctuations this week, with intense competition between bullish and bearish factors [4] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory rose to 2.57 million tons by the end of July, indicating significant supply-side pressure [4] - Delays in the EU's zero-deforestation regulation and rising international crude oil prices provide some support for palm oil prices [4] Group 5: New Energy Materials - The price of polysilicon futures continued to decline this week, as market trading logic returned to fundamental realities [5] - Supply pressure remains the primary factor suppressing prices, with industry inventory continuing to accumulate [5] - Demand-side performance is concerning, as the "export rush" phenomenon in Q3 has depleted Q4 photovoltaic demand, leading to an unfavorable outlook for end consumption [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The oilseed and oil sectors are facing various supply - demand challenges. The oilmeal market has potential supply contractions, while the oil market is generally weak with high inventories. Without bio - diesel speculation, the oil market is likely to return to a weak fundamental state and may experience further short - term adjustments [6][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilmeal Market 1.1 Soybean Meal - In August, the USDA cut the U.S. soybean area, potentially leading to a supply contraction in the global market in the fourth quarter. The U.S. soybean is entering the harvest period, and its inventory is expected to decline. There is uncertainty about Sino - U.S. tariffs, and domestic soybean purchases in November are not active. The domestic spot price has stopped falling and is in a low - level oscillation. As the domestic futures market drops, the spot basis strengthens, presenting opportunities for a low - level rebound [6]. 1.2 Rapeseed Meal - The short - term fundamentals are relatively stable. The potential anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may lead to a significant drop in imports, but there is uncertainty before the tariffs are finalized. Domestic rapeseed inventory is low, and insufficient imports may slow down rapeseed crushing, affecting the supply of domestic rapeseed meal and oil. The domestic rapeseed meal market has price but low trading volume, with low overall inventory, and the medium - term outlook is positive. The uncertainty lies in future tariff negotiations with Canada and the implementation of import policies [6]. 2. Oil Market 2.1 Soybean Oil - Domestic soybean oil production is increasing, leading to high - level inventory accumulation. The price difference with other oils may cause demand substitution. After the speculation on soybean oil exports, there is no further progress. If exports do not meet expectations, the domestic market may face an oversupply situation. Future attention should be paid to the price difference and substitution effects of overseas bio - diesel and palm oil [37]. 2.2 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are in a high - level oscillation. The delay of Indonesia's B50 program may weaken the bio - diesel outlook. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and the overseas supply pressure has slightly eased, but the seasonal inventory build - up is not over. Attention should be paid to the impact of the crude oil market and bio - diesel. Domestic inventory is high and increasing, and the supply - demand situation is weak. Higher import costs may lead to price drops if the overseas market weakens [38]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed sector lacks new topics, and during the off - season, inventory reduction is slow, putting pressure on the market. However, anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce the supply of rapeseed oil. Currently, the basis of East China crude rapeseed oil has fallen to near par, with low terminal purchasing willingness and weak trading in many regions, and the basis continues to decline slightly [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Market rumors of domestic procurement of Australian rapeseed have been confirmed with cumulative deals of 5 cargoes, which can make up for the shortage of rapeseed arrivals in the fourth quarter [4] - With increasing far - month exports of domestic soybean oil, downstream buyers are actively purchasing the basis of soybean oil from October to January, but be wary of reserve soybeans and Sino - US negotiations [6] - As India's peak procurement season is approaching its end, the bullish drivers for palm oil will be more on the supply side. However, even with supply - side drivers, the upside of the futures market may be limited, and there could be downward pressure if inventory accumulation exceeds expectations [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Market - In the GAPKI June report, palm oil production in Indonesia increased by 15.99% month - on - month. In early July, the market expected a production cut in June. Due to tax cuts in June, exports increased by 35.56% month - on - month. With lower biodiesel subsidy costs and high consumption, the inventory at the end of August dropped to 253 million tons, a historical low. Most expect July production to be flat or slightly lower, and inventory accumulation at the end of July may be limited [4] - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 3.03%, lower than the historical average. However, according to shipping inspection agency data, export growth is slowing down, and inventory may continue to accumulate at the end of August unless consumption continues to exceed expectations [4] - After 8 cargoes of palm oil were traded in China last week, the origin's quotes weakened this week, and the import loss for the domestic futures market narrowed. Cargoes for the November shipment continued to be traded [5] - India's procurement of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil has slowed down due to the narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread at Indian ports and news of India's procurement of South American palm oil [5] Price Movements - As of August 22, 2025, French rapeseed had the largest weekly increase, while price adjustments of rapeseed and soybeans in most regions were small [8] - As of August 25, 2025, except for a slight decline in the prices of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, other vegetable oil prices rose, especially the prices of North and South American soybean oil [13] - The weekly price difference between refined palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia was $10/ton, compared to $0/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $11.7/ton. The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $28.5/ton, compared to - $36/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $127.9/ton [23] - As of August 22, Canada officially raised its rapeseed production forecast, and the price of Canadian rapeseed was weak. Without Chinese purchases, it has to find other markets [24] - As of August 22, the price difference between crude soybean oil and crude palm oil at Indian ports was $30/ton, higher than $15/ton the previous week; the price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $115/ton, compared to $95/ton the previous week; the price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $0/ton, compared to - $6/ton the previous week [30] Transaction Volume - Last week, 8 cargoes of palm oil for the October shipment, 2 for the September shipment, 1 for the October shipment, and 5 for the November shipment were traded. One cargo of Dubai rapeseed oil was also traded in China last week [39] - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Basis and Spread - The spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong weakened again, the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was raised, and the basis of third - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained stable [136] - On August 25, 2025, the spot price difference between first - grade soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - $900.0; the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was $1320; and the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil was $1540 [148] Bio - diesel - Weekly processing profit and loss remained stable, subsidies decreased, and blending losses increased [127] - The price of European RME was stable, and the processing profit was at the historical average level [128] Demand - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Monthly Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil show the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other indicators from 2024 to 2025 [155]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The upward space of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be limited by concerns over production growth and potential slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. Domestic palm oil futures may strengthen again and are expected to rise to the 9800 - 10000 yuan range around the end of the month, but there is a risk of ending the upward trend. In September, there is a risk of a downward trend due to increased production and inventory in Malaysia [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The market expects the US EPA to rule on the backlog of biofuel exemption applications from small refineries. Partial approvals are positive for biodiesel demand, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean oil. In China, downstream consumption increases in late August, and if domestic soybean oil futures decline due to external market factors, the basis quote may rise further [1]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, with the futures price at a low level. However, the decline may be limited or there may be a slight rebound as new - season corn has not fully entered the market. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and with stable or increased production, there will be significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Meal**: The cost of imported soybeans remains high. Canadian rapeseed supply to China is tight, and aquaculture demand is expected to increase. Although there are concerns about future import pressure, the cost of domestic meal still has strong support, and the downward space for domestic meal is limited [6]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs remains stable with small fluctuations. Consumption is driven by the start of school and cooler weather in the north. There is a short - term positive impact on the futures market, but there may be a concentrated slaughter before the double festivals, and the near - term market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying far - month contracts below 14000 yuan [8]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is under pressure from expected supply increases, but there is a risk of lower production in Brazil. It is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range in the short term. The domestic sugar futures market is strong, but the spot market is resistant to high prices. With an expected increase in imports, the price has limited upward potential and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. - **Cotton**: The tight old - crop inventory and lower import data in July support the cotton price. However, with the upcoming new - season cotton harvest and expected stable or increased production, the short - term price may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the release of cold - stored eggs will increase the supply pressure. The downstream market has slow digestion, and traders are cautious. The egg price is expected to be bearish [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9620 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9510 yuan, up 74 yuan. The basis decreased significantly [1]. - **Market Factors**: Exports support Malaysian palm oil, but production growth and inventory increase are potential negatives. In China, consumption and market sentiment affect the price [1]. Soybean Oil - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8690 yuan, up 30 yuan. The futures price of Y2601 was 8492 yuan, up 70 yuan [1]. - **Market Factors**: The US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions and domestic consumption during the school - opening and festival - preparation periods affect the price [1]. Corn - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2175 - 2240 yuan/ton, with a slight change. The futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2498 yuan, up 14 yuan [2]. - **Market Factors**: Supply increases due to more vehicles at deep - processing plants and import auctions. Demand is cautious as enterprises wait for new - season corn [2]. Meal - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, down 20 yuan. The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 20 yuan [6]. - **Market Factors**: The yield outlook of US soybeans, the supply of Canadian rapeseed, and domestic import pressure affect the price [6]. Hogs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the main hog futures contract was 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The spot price in different regions had small fluctuations [8]. - **Market Factors**: Consumption changes, market sentiment, and potential concentrated slaughter before festivals affect the price [8]. Sugar - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic white sugar 2601 was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The international ICE raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound, up 0.08 cents [13]. - **Market Factors**: International supply expectations, Brazilian production conditions, and domestic import expectations affect the price [13]. Cotton - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of domestic cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The international ICE cotton price was 68.00 cents/pound, up 0.53 cents [14]. - **Market Factors**: Old - crop inventory, import data, and new - season production expectations affect the price [14]. Eggs - **Price Changes**: On August 22, the price of the egg 09 contract was 2920 yuan/500KG, up 41 yuan. The egg产区 price was 3.18 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan [17]. - **Market Factors**: Sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion lead to a bearish price trend [17].