可转债因子量化

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可转债因子量化跟踪:技术类因子动量、波动率、换手率表现较好
Southwest Securities· 2025-05-19 04:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the convertible bond market, but it suggests focusing on low-priced convertible bonds due to their potential for appreciation and strong anti-drawdown characteristics [2][19]. Core Insights - The convertible bond market underperformed compared to the underlying stocks, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.65% and the Wande Convertible Bond Dual-Low Index increasing by 1.80%, both lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index's 3.62% rise and the CSI 1000 Index's 2.00% increase [1][12]. - The weighted conversion premium for the entire market has decreased, indicating a potential opportunity in low-priced convertible bonds, which currently have room for appreciation [2][19]. - The number of convertible bonds priced below 100 yuan has significantly decreased from 182 in August of the previous year to just 10 currently, reflecting a tightening market [2][20]. Summary by Sections Convertible Bond Market Performance Review (2025.4.15-2025.5.15) - The overall performance of convertible bonds was weaker than that of the underlying stocks, with high-priced convertible bonds showing a maximum increase of 4.03%, while low-priced convertible bonds only increased by 1.08% despite their underlying stocks rising by 8.47% [1][12]. - Sector-wise, the household appliances and beauty care industries saw the highest increases in convertible bond prices, although still below the performance of their underlying stocks [12]. Convertible Bond Valuation Situation - The weighted conversion premium for the entire market has fluctuated significantly, reaching historical highs since September of the previous year, while the pure bond premium has remained relatively stable [2][19]. - The report recommends paying attention to low-priced convertible bonds due to their potential for appreciation and lower pure bond premiums, which provide stronger anti-drawdown properties [2][19]. Factor Performance Tracking - Technical factors such as volatility, convertible bond momentum, average daily turnover, and price difference factors showed strong performance across various types of convertible bonds, with high excess returns for long positions [3][32]. - In the mixed-type convertible bonds, factors like logarithmic market value, underlying stock momentum, and average daily turnover also demonstrated strong performance, contributing to high excess returns for long positions [3][32].