2025年的一轮中美交手后，特朗普更换了怎样的隐蔽"打法"？美国对国际秩序的破坏是否是永久性的？ 面对不确定的国际局势，中国该如何清醒应对，信心与底气来源于何处？针对以上话题，观察者网在新 春之际对话了知名美国问题专家金灿荣教授。 观察者网：这次我们编辑部策划了一个专题，叫"新大陆与旧地图：全球体系的认知重启"。其中提出一 个判断：世界可能正从"相互依存的地球村"，走向一个多中心、多规则、多联盟的碎片化时代。对于这 样的描述，您怎么看？这种"碎片化"的判断是否已经形成较广泛的共识？还是说，这只会是一个短期的 过渡现象？ 金灿荣：这个世界应该讲正在发生巨变。习主席讲世界进入"百年未有之大变局"，而且是一个现在进行 时。所以，现在就给这个世界做一个定性的描述，我觉得还早了一点，还不能下最终结论。 我们只能说，变化中确实出现了一些趋势，可以讨论。但这个世界最后会走向什么形态，现在还不好 说。但有一点我比较确定：我们正在熟悉的那个世界，正在消失。我们熟悉的是什么世界？就是二战后 的国际秩序。这个二战后的国际秩序，在整个人类国际关系史上，其实是一个例外，而不是常态。 从美国"退群"联合国到特朗普筹办"和平委员会"，听命 ...

Core Points - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant political shift, but her path to leadership has been fraught with challenges, particularly following the exit of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition [1][4] - Analysts suggest that Takashi's government is likely to exhibit a pronounced rightward shift in policy, especially in security and defense matters, due to the alliance with the Japan Innovation Party [7][10] Election Process - The Prime Minister was elected through a two-round voting process in the National Diet, where Takashi won in the House of Representatives and subsequently in the House of Councillors [2][4] - The term "vote gathering" became a focal point, highlighting the necessity for coalition-building due to insufficient seats [5][6] Political Alliances - Following the Komeito party's withdrawal, Takashi sought alliances with opposition parties, ultimately forming a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after making policy concessions [4][11] - The coalition's seat count in both houses remains short of a majority, indicating potential instability in governance [11] Policy Direction - The new coalition is expected to push for a more aggressive security policy, including amendments to the National Security Strategy and increased military spending [7][9] - Takashi's cabinet appointments reflect a conservative stance, with key positions filled by individuals known for their right-wing views [9][12] Governance Challenges - Despite the coalition, significant policy disagreements remain between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, which could threaten the stability of the alliance [11] - Takashi's lack of direct experience in foreign affairs may pose challenges as she faces upcoming diplomatic engagements [12]

Core Points - The rise of the populist party "Reiwa Shinsengumi" in Japan reflects public dissatisfaction with the current political landscape and economic conditions, gaining significant support by promoting a "Japan First" agenda [1][5][11] - The party's controversial statements and policies, including anti-immigration sentiments and a rejection of gender equality initiatives, have sparked both support and opposition among the electorate [3][4][9] - The party's success in recent elections indicates a shift in Japanese political dynamics, with traditional parties losing ground to new populist movements [11][12][13] Group 1: Party Background and Growth - "Reiwa Shinsengumi" was established in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, attracting initial support through social media and grassroots mobilization, growing from 2,800 followers to 460,000 on YouTube [2] - The party gained one seat in the 2022 Senate elections and three seats in the 2024 House elections, totaling 140 members including local councilors [2] - The party's slogan "Japan First" resonates with voters feeling neglected by mainstream parties, particularly in the context of rising living costs and dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [5][8] Group 2: Political Impact and Public Sentiment - The party's rise is partly attributed to a backlash against the LDP's perceived liberalization and failure to address nationalistic sentiments among conservative voters [5][11] - Polls indicate strong support for the party among younger voters aged 18 to 30, while older demographics remain more aligned with traditional parties [4][12] - The party's anti-immigration stance and claims of rising crime rates linked to foreigners have fueled public anxiety, allowing it to capitalize on existing fears [3][8][9] Group 3: Future Implications - The emergence of "Reiwa Shinsengumi" may signal a long-term shift towards right-wing populism in Japan, challenging the historical dominance of the LDP [11][14] - The party's influence could reshape Japan's political discourse, particularly regarding immigration and foreign relations, as it seeks to align with nationalist sentiments [13][14] - Observers note that while the party has gained traction, its long-term sustainability remains uncertain, as past populist movements in Japan have struggled to maintain momentum [14]