【编者按】 1月5日，复旦大学国际问题研究院对外发布复旦智库报告《冲击与重构：复旦国际战略报告2025》。复 旦大学国际问题研究院院长、美国研究中心主任吴心伯教授在报告的序言中指出，在特朗普2.0冲击 下，多极化步伐加快，美国和西方在世界舞台上的影响力进一步下降，全球南方加速崛起。变局之下， 世界在为后美国时代做准备。 智通财经（www.thepaper.cn）今起刊出"世局2026"系列，选刊该报告部分文章，展望"旧格局渐行渐 远，新格局轮廓初现"的2026年。 2025年在日本政治进程中占据着重要位置。继2024年10月丢掉众议院的多数议席之后，在2025年7月举 行的参议院选举中，自民党与公明党组成的执政联盟再次丢掉在参议院的多数议席。随后10月份举行的 自民党总裁选举中，高市早苗当选为自民党成立以来的第一位女总裁，尽管公明党随后退出执政联盟， 自民党却仍然得以继续执政，高市顺理成章地成为宪政史上首位女性首相。高市带领的自民党与日本维 新会组成联合政权，日本政治社会右倾化呈现加速态势。在去年11月的国会答辩中，高市早苗关于台湾 问题的错误言论遭到中国方面的强烈反对，导致中日关系陷入新一轮紧张状态。 当地 ...

熊害问题并非日本独有。德国也曾发生过一桩令人印象深刻的熊害事件——"布鲁诺熊事件"。德国境内 的熊早在1835年就已灭绝，但令人意外的是，2006年在巴伐利亚州却"重新出现"了一头熊。这是一头来 自意大利自然公园棕熊保护与繁育项目的熊，进入了德国境内。"时隔170年，棕熊重返德国！"这一消 息最初让德国社会一片沸腾，尤其是环保人士欢欣鼓舞，因为这象征着濒危物种复育计划的成功。这头 原本作为研究对象被编号的熊，很快被取名为"布鲁诺"，并迅速被偶像化，成为明星。 但随之而来的消息却令人沮丧。蜂箱被破坏，牲畜和牲畜圈舍遭到袭击，山羊、鸡被咬死，尤其是山羊 的受害数量高达31只。巴伐利亚州政府陷入两难：难道要以"野生自然的法则"为由，要求民众默默承受 这一切吗？ 美国《新闻周刊》日本版 12 月 7 日文章，原题：日本 " 熊问题 " 与德国 " 问题熊 " 的比较：这正是日本难以 解决问题的原因 最近，日本社会舆论尤其是网络舆论场正被两个议题彻底点燃——"外国人问题"和"熊 害问题"。在围绕这两大议题的网络言论中，二者有一个共同突出的现象是：比起"必须设法阻止危险、 有害之物的入侵"这一表面目标，"想要彻底痛击那些 ...

Core Points - The visit of German President Steinmeier to Guernica and his acknowledgment of Germany's responsibility for the 1937 bombing is seen as a positive step towards historical accountability [2] - The contrast is drawn with Japan, which has not acknowledged its historical wrongdoings, raising concerns about the potential for history to repeat itself [2][4] Group 1 - The acknowledgment of historical crimes by Germany is viewed as a means to prevent the recurrence of such atrocities and provide solace to victims [2] - Steinmeier's warning about the resurgence of populism and extremism in Europe emphasizes the need for adherence to international law and multilateral cooperation [2] - The lack of acknowledgment and compensation from Japan for its historical crimes is highlighted as a dangerous situation that could lead to a repetition of past tragedies [4] Group 2 - The Tokyo Trials, under U.S. influence, did not fully address Japan's war responsibilities, unlike the Nuremberg Trials, leaving some perpetrators unpunished [4] - The failure of Japan to provide compensation to victims is noted as a significant issue that contributes to the risk of historical tragedies reoccurring [4]

Core Viewpoint - The provocative remarks made by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan signify a significant shift in Japan's political spectrum towards the right, revealing the resurgence of long-suppressed right-wing conservatism in Japan's political landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Right-Wing Ideology - Takaichi's strong right-wing stance is driven by a revival of Japanese nationalism, rooted in pre-war ideologies that reject the acknowledgment of Japan's wartime aggression and seek to restore national pride and military normalization [4][6]. - The political landscape has shifted since the 1980s, with the decline of the "55-year system" leading to a rise in right-wing conservatism, particularly under the leadership of figures like Shinzo Abe [4][5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Takaichi's political alignment closely mirrors that of Abe, characterized by historical revisionism, a push for constitutional amendments, and a hawkish stance towards China [5][6]. - The current political environment in Japan is marked by a rightward shift within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), where hardline positions on defense and foreign policy have become the norm [9]. Group 3: External Threat Perception - The perception of external threats, particularly from China, has overshadowed traditional pacifist sentiments in Japan, leading to a fundamental change in political narratives and policies [8]. - The 2022 security policy changes, including the commitment to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, reflect a significant departure from post-war security principles [8]. Group 4: Populism and Political Mobilization - Takaichi's remarks resonate with a growing populist sentiment in Japan, leveraging anti-China rhetoric to galvanize support among nationalist factions [10][11]. - The rise of online right-wing movements has amplified exclusionary nationalist sentiments, allowing Takaichi and similar politicians to bypass traditional media and directly engage with their base [10][11]. Group 5: Implications for Japan's Future - The combination of resurgent right-wing ideology, a shifting political landscape, and rising populism poses significant challenges for Japan's political stability and international relations [12]. - Takaichi's provocative stance on Taiwan is seen as a manifestation of deeper issues within Japan's political fabric, potentially leading to increased tensions in the region [12].

Group 1 - The EU finance ministers agreed to impose tariffs on imported packages valued under €150, primarily targeting low-cost goods from China, to combat tax avoidance and protect local retailers [2] - The EU Council announced that starting next year, packages below €150 will no longer be exempt from tariffs, aiming to address the influx of millions of small packages from China [2][7] - Some EU countries, particularly France and Germany, plan to implement this policy as early as the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a shift towards more aggressive trade protectionism [2][7] Group 2 - The German Vice Chancellor's remarks about rejecting "Chinese junk" highlight the growing hostility among some European politicians towards China, indicating a shift from a win-win approach to strategic competition [3][5] - The EU's stance on tariffs against China is seen as part of a broader trend of increasing protectionism, driven by domestic economic pressures and rising populism within member states [7] - This selective protectionism against China undermines the EU's commitment to free trade, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers and marginalization of the EU in global value chains [7][8] Group 3 - In the short term, the EU may boost local businesses' performance through these measures, but long-term consequences could mirror the detrimental effects of U.S. trade protectionism, harming the EU's international standing [8]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a new record duration, surpassing the previous 35-day shutdown from late 2018 to early 2019, marking it as the longest in U.S. history [1] - The ongoing shutdown is expected to have significant negative impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation, food, and healthcare, with effects likely to worsen over time [1] - The shutdown reflects a failure of the "new liberalism" model represented by the establishment, leading to increased dissatisfaction among the middle and lower classes, potentially fueling a resurgence of populism in the U.S. [2] Impact on Society - The middle and lower classes in the U.S. are likely to face greater hardships due to the shutdown, with an increase in poverty levels that may drive demands for economic and wealth redistribution [2] - The recent election of a leftist populist candidate in New York City indicates a growing leftward shift within the Democratic Party, while the Republican Party continues to move right, exacerbating political polarization [2] Political Dynamics - The Trump administration is expected to maintain a hardline stance without compromise, particularly against the Democratic Party's efforts to uphold the Affordable Care Act [3] - The ongoing political deadlock may benefit Trump by undermining the Democratic base and paralyzing the "deep state" within Congress and the federal government, consolidating his presidential power [3]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has become the longest in history, surpassing the previous record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, with significant impacts on public services and the economy [1][2] - Approximately 42 million people have been affected by the suspension of food assistance, and over 3.2 million travelers have experienced flight delays due to the shutdown [1] - The political standoff between the Democratic and Republican parties continues, with no signs of compromise, as both sides leverage the shutdown for political gain [1][7] Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to the suspension of pay for about 750,000 federal employees, causing disruptions in various public services [2] - The ongoing economic deterioration is expected to disproportionately affect the middle and lower classes, potentially increasing poverty levels and fueling a resurgence of populism in the U.S. [3][4] Political Dynamics - The current political climate is characterized by heightened polarization, with both parties using the shutdown as a weapon against each other, complicating the path to resolution [5][8] - Trump's administration is seen as using the shutdown to consolidate power and undermine Democratic support, particularly regarding healthcare reforms [4][6] - The focus of contention is not on healthcare itself but rather on power distribution and the solidification of voter bases, with Democrats potentially seeking to mobilize lower-income voters against Trump [7][8]

Group 1 - The European investment market has experienced a significant shift, with foreign capital decreasing by 25% in just six months, negatively impacting global markets [1] - Despite some localized improvements, such as Germany attracting foreign investment, the overall sentiment in Europe remains cautious among both factory owners and workers [1] Group 2 - Companies in Europe are becoming increasingly conservative due to rising cost pressures, particularly in energy, which is heavily reliant on imports, affecting factory profitability [3] - The external market is challenging, with U.S. tariffs reducing European export profits, leading to a cautious consumer environment where spending is restrained [3] Group 3 - Europe, once a leader in technology, is falling behind in emerging fields like AI and the internet due to insufficient R&D funding and a focus on traditional industries like automotive manufacturing [5] - The bureaucratic inefficiencies and regulatory hurdles in Europe hinder the progress of new projects, stifling innovation and market vitality [5] Group 4 - Economic and technological pressures are creating significant social impacts, with decision-makers in Brussels struggling to implement reforms due to internal disagreements among member states [7] - The lack of consensus on budgetary spending and subsidies among countries is slowing down progress and reform efforts [7] Group 5 - The internal conflicts and hesitations within the EU are leading to collective anxiety among the populace, resulting in a loss of confidence in the future and increased support for populist parties [10] - The divergence in expectations among different social groups, such as the younger generation seeking high-tech advancements and older individuals desiring stable welfare, reflects a fragmented societal outlook [10] Group 6 - The pervasive anxiety and risk aversion in Europe are causing a stagnation in investment and innovation, with stakeholders hesitant to take action due to fears of disrupting the status quo [12] - The combination of investor withdrawal, lagging innovation, policy fragmentation, and public anxiety represents the most significant challenges facing Europe today [12]

Core Points - The recent Dutch elections have resulted in a significant shift in political power, with the D66 party led by Rob Jetten expected to gain 26 seats, while the Freedom Party led by Geert Wilders is projected to lose 11 seats [1][3][4] - The election reflects a broader trend in European politics, where voters are increasingly polarized on issues such as immigration, housing, and security [6][9][10] - The D66 party's victory is seen as a rejection of populism and far-right politics, with Jetten positioning himself as a counter to Wilders [3][6][8] Election Results - D66 is projected to gain 17 seats compared to the previous election, while the Freedom Party is expected to decrease from 36 to 25 seats [1][3] - The D66 party's rise marks its first time potentially becoming the largest party in the Netherlands after 59 years of existence [6][9] - The election results indicate that no party has achieved an absolute majority, necessitating coalition negotiations among at least four parties [3][4] Political Implications - The election outcome may lead to a prolonged period of coalition negotiations, which could create political uncertainty and impact investor confidence in the Netherlands [10] - The refusal of mainstream parties to collaborate with the Freedom Party suggests a significant shift in the political landscape, potentially affecting EU immigration policies and transatlantic relations [10] - The performance of the left-wing Green-Left alliance is disappointing, with expectations of losing five seats, indicating a shift in voter sentiment towards more centrist or right-leaning parties [9]

Group 1 - The Dutch parliamentary elections have officially commenced with over 10,000 polling stations open, featuring 1,166 candidates from 27 parties competing for 150 seats in the House of Representatives [1] - Polls indicate that the far-right Freedom Party, led by Geert Wilders, is slightly ahead, expected to secure between 24 to 28 seats, potentially winning again [1] - Wilders has warned that if the Freedom Party becomes the largest party but is excluded from government, it would signify the "death of democracy" in the Netherlands [1] Group 2 - Four major parties, including the leftist Green-Left and Labor alliance, the D66 Democrats, the Christian Democratic Appeal, and the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy, have stated they will not form a coalition with the Freedom Party [2] - The fragmented nature of the Dutch political landscape makes it unlikely for any single party to achieve a majority, leading to a situation where there may be "no clear winner" in the elections [2]