选票政治
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中方抛售美债后,特朗普开始报复,美联储主席或换人,一个时代即将告终
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 07:50
近期,中国再次采取行动,减持了5亿美元的美国国债,这一数据根据美国财政部的披露而得知。如今,中国在美国国债上的总持仓量已降至 7400亿美元左右。而这并非偶然,而是中国在经历了一系列深思熟虑的战略调整后,从2022年至今,累计抛售了近3000亿美元的美债。在这一过 程中,中国在海外持有美国国债的排名也悄然滑落,从长期第二的位置跌至了第三,为日本和英国所超越。 美国国债的规模如滚雪球般不断膨胀,现在已经逼近40万亿美元。这不仅让我们看到经济实力的幻影,更让诸多国家对美国未来的偿还能力心存 疑虑。美国每年为其国债支付的利息高达1.5万亿美元,这一数字甚至超过了不少国家的年度GDP,令人咂舌。如此巨额的债务,无疑加剧了国 际间对美元信用的担忧,也让各国不得不重新考虑与美国的金融关系。 随着美国国债的不断增大,金融市场的稳定性正受到严重威胁。倘若这种情况持续发展,谁又能保证美国一定会如约偿还?美国政府的减税政策 和对外国商品的加税,无形中加重了全球市场对美元的疑虑。此时,没有哪个国家愿意再把自己的财富系在一个越来越不稳定的货币上。 对于中国的这一系列操作,特朗普的态度无疑是引人注目的。他并没有选择认真审视美国的财政问 ...
美国农产品关税罕见松绑!通胀高烧下,农业州选票到底有多关键?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 16:15
这波操作看得人眼花缭乱,要知道之前美国对贸易关税那可是咬得死紧,怎么突然就软了?别真当是政 策善意,说白了就是被国内形势逼到墙角了。 最闹心的就是通胀这把火,烧得美国老百姓直皱眉。9月消费者价格指数同比涨3.4%,虽说比8月的 3.7%降了点,但离美联储2%的目标还差得远。 尤其食品价格,同比涨2.8%,低收入家庭每月光买菜就得多花近百美元,超市里番茄、生菜价格比去 年翻了倍,社交媒体上全是通胀焦虑的吐槽,这民意压力谁顶得住? 比老百姓抱怨更要命的,是农业州的选票警报。爱荷华、堪萨斯这些传统摇摆州,农场主们正两头受 气:关税一拦,大豆、猪肉对亚洲出口直接少了12%,仓库堆得满当当,只能低价甩卖;可进口的化肥 呢? 2025年11月中旬,白宫突然扔出颗定心丸,特朗普政府官宣,部分农产品关税正式松绑,从美东时间11 月13日起生效,连关税退还都安排上了。 把那份豁免清单拆开看,美国的小算盘打得清清楚楚,满是功利主义的味道。松绑的全是草莓、牛油果 这类依赖进口的果蔬,小麦、玉米这些本土优势作物,那是半点不松口。 这保强弃弱的套路,看着是兼顾市场和产业,实则是把关税当工具玩精准调控。 为啥偏松果蔬?美国本土果蔬产业早 ...
国际观察丨日本首位女首相:拜相路涉险 执政路更险
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-22 00:49
Core Points - The election of Sanna Takashi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant political shift, but her path to leadership has been fraught with challenges, particularly following the exit of the Komeito party from the ruling coalition [1][4] - Analysts suggest that Takashi's government is likely to exhibit a pronounced rightward shift in policy, especially in security and defense matters, due to the alliance with the Japan Innovation Party [7][10] Election Process - The Prime Minister was elected through a two-round voting process in the National Diet, where Takashi won in the House of Representatives and subsequently in the House of Councillors [2][4] - The term "vote gathering" became a focal point, highlighting the necessity for coalition-building due to insufficient seats [5][6] Political Alliances - Following the Komeito party's withdrawal, Takashi sought alliances with opposition parties, ultimately forming a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after making policy concessions [4][11] - The coalition's seat count in both houses remains short of a majority, indicating potential instability in governance [11] Policy Direction - The new coalition is expected to push for a more aggressive security policy, including amendments to the National Security Strategy and increased military spending [7][9] - Takashi's cabinet appointments reflect a conservative stance, with key positions filled by individuals known for their right-wing views [9][12] Governance Challenges - Despite the coalition, significant policy disagreements remain between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party, which could threaten the stability of the alliance [11] - Takashi's lack of direct experience in foreign affairs may pose challenges as she faces upcoming diplomatic engagements [12]