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猪源充足,价格下跌
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 00:55
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and future outlooks. Most products are expected to have an oscillatory trend, and some are expected to show a weakening or strengthening trend in the medium - to - long term [1][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are undergoing a corrective adjustment. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying at stage - specific lows [6]. - **Protein Meal**: Double - meal continues its oscillatory trend. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Corn**: The market maintains a tight balance. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the medium term, it is generally bullish [9][11]. - **Hogs**: Pig sources are abundant, and prices are falling. The short - to - medium - term outlook is oscillatory and weakening, while the price is expected to bottom out and recover in the third quarter and rise moderately in the fourth quarter [1][10][11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The market sentiment on the disk has weakened, and the rubber price has temporarily broken through the support level. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The disk is slowly moving down. If crude oil continues to rise, the disk will remain strong in the short term [14]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is correcting and testing the lower support. The outlook is oscillatory and strengthening, and corrections may be opportunities for long - positions [15]. - **Sugar**: Thailand's sugar production has increased year - on - year. In the short term, domestic and foreign sugar prices will oscillate following oil prices. In the long term, there is still upward pressure on prices [15][16][17]. - **Pulp**: The weakness of softwood pulp remains unchanged, and futures continue to decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [18]. - **Offset Paper**: As pulp weakens, offset paper prices are moving down. The price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [19][21]. - **Logs**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment, log prices are weakening. In the short term, the disk will oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, it will operate within a range [22]. 2. Key Data of Each Product - **Hogs**: On March 18, the national average hog price was 10.02 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month change of - 0.3%; the closing price of hog futures (active contract) was 10,475 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 2.06% [1][10][11]. - **Protein Meal**: On March 18, the international soybean trade premium quotes were 229 cents/bu for US Gulf soybeans, 213 cents/bu for US West soybeans, and 140 cents/bu for South American soybeans. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 231.08 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of - 63.29 yuan/ton [8]. - **Corn**: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 2,382 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 0.17% [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber at Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: On March 18, the Zhengzhou Cotton 05 contract closed at 15,210 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 205 yuan/ton [15]. - **Sugar**: On March 16, the Zhengzhou Sugar 05 contract closed at 5,343 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 63 yuan/ton, or - 1.17% [15]. - **Pulp**: The price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,700 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Offset Paper**: On March 18, the daily market price of 70g white peony offset paper in Shandong was 4,450 yuan/ton [19]. - **Logs**: On March 18, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan/m³, and the main contract of logs closed at 806 yuan/m³, with a decrease of 0.68% [22]. 3. Commodity Index - On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2,581.98, with a decrease of 0.38%; the commodity 20 index was 2,916.20, with a decrease of 0.36%; the industrial product index was 2,557.35, with a decrease of 0.31%. The agricultural product index was 970.26, with a daily decrease of 0.38%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.15%, a monthly increase of 4.60%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.99% [185][187].