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稳增长 风浪中彰显中国经济韧性
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 23:07
Macro Economic Overview - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 5% for the year, with a 5.2% year-on-year growth recorded in the first three quarters [1][3] - The industrial and service sectors are driving growth, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% and service sector value-added rising by 5.4% year-on-year [3][4] - Exports have exceeded expectations, with a 6.1% increase in dollar terms and a 7.1% increase in yuan terms for the first three quarters, despite a 16.9% decline in exports to the US [4] Micro Economic Insights - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.2% from January to October, while per capita disposable income nominally grew by 5.1% and 5.2% in real terms [5][6] - Industrial enterprises' profits increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to October, with improvements in accounts receivable and inventory management [6] - Structural issues persist, particularly among youth, with an average unemployment rate of 16.6% for those aged 16 to 24 [5][6] Future Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to maintain a medium to high growth rate, with an annual growth target of around 5% [7] - Key trends include continued economic growth, optimization of industrial structure, and a stable investment rate around 40% [7] - Recommendations for achieving these goals include enhancing consumption's share of GDP and fostering the development of large technology enterprises [7]