■朱宝琛 "史上最长春节假期"已经结束，一组组新鲜出炉的滚烫数据，勾勒出中国经济活力持续释放的生动图 景。透过火热的春节消费，我们可以感受到中国经济行稳致远的底气。 消费活力，照见发展底气。下一步，需做好"节后接续"文章，用制度、供给、服务等巩固消费大势，把 节日消费的热度转化为拉动经济增长的持久动力。 马年春节，"马"力十足的消费市场，是内需潜力不断释放的直观体现。中国经济持续向好态势不断巩 固，高质量发展的脉动愈发强劲有力。 看餐饮消费，国家税务总局增值税发票数据显示，2026年春节假期，餐饮收入同比增长31.2%。其中， 正餐服务同比增长26.5%，为家庭团聚增添浓浓年味；小吃服务增幅走高，同比增长42.1%。 看"指尖上的支付"，根据微信团队发布的2026春节数据报告，马年春节消费持续走高，微信支付旅行、 生活娱乐交易笔数涨幅均超20%。每一笔支付，都彰显出消费市场的旺盛活力，见证了数字经济与实体 经济的深度融合。 一组组鲜活数据，是中国经济社会活力与居民生活品质提升的直观体现，更是中国经济韧性与发展底气 的生动写照。这为2026年中国经济写下了精彩的"开篇"：中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜能大的 ...

2025年GDP实际增速为5%，名义增速仅3.9%，实际GDP增速较高与整个经济偏冷的紧缩状态并存。 对当下中国经济的讨论，多数人心目中的对照组可能仍是20年前甚至30年前的画面。这些画面有时候出 现在关于越南经济的报道中，那是热火朝天的繁荣景象。彼时中国正处于经济高速增长的阶段，繁荣由 大规模的外资流入（世界工厂）、基建（资本积累）和人口迁移（城市化）推动。这样的繁荣景象太深 刻，以至于很难从我们脑海中抹去。这样的景象如何再现？超常增长时期已过，中国经济也变得更强 大。但如果政策处理得当，中国经济在达到中等发达国家水平之前，依然可以保持比西方世界更快的增 长。 正因为保持了长达几十年的高增长，中国经济获得了全面的发展，不仅让近8亿人摆脱了贫困，而且拥 有了覆盖全国的一流的物质基础设施，拥有了发达的高速公路、高铁网络、航空、通讯、电网、互联网 和5G等。在制造业领域，中国从简单加工起步，经历用市场换技术的中外合资办厂与引进国外技术并 消化吸收阶段，如今已拥有本土相当先进的制造能力与发达的供应链，涌现出一大批有科技创新能力和 国际竞争力的企业，并在人工智能、电动汽车、智能制造和生物医药等领域保持着世界先进的地位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic prediction for China's GDP growth in 2026 is set at 4.9%, supported by policy stabilization and structural transformation factors, with potential to closely approach this figure due to various economic drivers [1][3][20]. Economic Growth Forecast - The overall GDP growth rate for 2026 is expected to be 4.9%, aligning with mainstream institutional forecasts, with a consensus range of 4.5% to 5.0% [3][4]. - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley project a baseline growth of 4.8%, while local institutions set their growth center at 4.8% to 5.0% [3][4]. Policy Support - Fiscal policy is expected to be proactive, with a projected increase in broad fiscal spending by approximately 1.2 trillion yuan compared to 2025, maintaining a deficit ratio at a reasonable level of 4% [4]. - Monetary policy anticipates 1-2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and one interest rate reduction, with social financing growth expected to remain around 8.5% [5]. Domestic Demand as Growth Engine - Domestic consumption is projected to be the primary driver of the 4.9% growth, with final consumption expenditure contributing approximately 55% to GDP growth [7][12]. - Specific policies, such as the expansion of the "old-for-new" program, are expected to stimulate large-scale consumption [8]. Investment Trends - Investment patterns are characterized by strong manufacturing, stable infrastructure, and a significant reduction in the negative impact of real estate [9]. - Manufacturing investment is expected to maintain over 5% growth in high-tech sectors, while infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to 5%-6% [9]. Export Resilience - China's exports are anticipated to show unexpected resilience, particularly in high-value products like AI servers and semiconductor equipment, with export growth rates of 5%-6% [11]. - The trade surplus is expected to remain high, with net exports contributing 0.8%-0.9% to GDP growth [11]. New Five-Year Plan Impact - The new five-year plan is expected to catalyze new productive forces, with significant investments in high-tech industries and infrastructure projects commencing in 2026 [17][18]. - The transition from the previous five-year plan to the new one is expected to enhance investment efficiency and stimulate economic growth [18]. Quarterly Growth Dynamics - The GDP growth is projected to follow a pattern of lower growth in the first half of the year, with an increase in the latter half, reaching approximately 5.1% in the fourth quarter [16].

经济增长实现5%、连续3年保持5%及以上增速、经济总量首次突破140万亿元——2025年，我国经 济顶压前行，交出一份亮眼答卷。 顺利完成预期目标，成绩来之不易。一边是外部环境不确定性加剧，地缘冲突、保护主义升温；一 边是国内困难挑战不少，经济动能处在新旧转换的关键期。复杂形势下，我国经济仍以稳中有进的姿 态，为全球贡献30%左右的经济增长，成为世界经济最稳定、最可靠的动力源。这份"稳定"，离不开党 中央总揽全局、掌舵定向，以集中力量办大事的优势、办好自己的事的定力、该出手时就出手的果断， 为经济发展增添抗压能力与内生动力。 对于大体量的经济体而言，"稳"已属难得，"进"更显可贵。透过2025年的经济数据，一个底盘厚、 韧性足、优势多、潜力大的中国经济样貌呈现在眼前—— 在生产的持续增长里，有大国经济的稳健。 庞大的经济体量，对应的是实打实的生产力。2025年生产端的稳定增长依然是实现GDP增长的重要 支撑。规模以上工业增加值比上年增长5.9%、服务业增加值比上年增长5.4%、粮食总产量比上年增加 838万吨……这些厚实的"家底"，构筑起我们抵御风险、行稳致远的基础。尤其是工业增加值对经济增 长的贡献率达到3 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP reached 140.1879 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 5.0% increase from the previous year, driven by stable energy supply and infrastructure investments that enhanced labor productivity [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Productivity - Economic growth in China is primarily driven by improvements in labor productivity, which have been significantly enhanced through substantial investments in stable and sufficient energy supply [3]. - China's superior infrastructure has positioned it as a strong player in both manufacturing and services, contributing to sustained economic growth [3]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - In 2025, China excelled in the renewable energy sector, with a renewable energy generation capacity of approximately 4 trillion kilowatt-hours, the highest in the world [5]. - China is the leading producer of cost-effective photovoltaic cells and has the largest photovoltaic industry globally, alongside manufacturing wind turbines and energy storage systems [6]. - The development of ultra-high voltage transmission technology by the State Grid has enabled large-scale solar and wind power generation in western China, facilitating efficient power delivery to densely populated eastern regions [6]. Group 3: Climate Adaptation and Resilience - China's initiatives in low-carbon development and green transition provide valuable lessons for developing countries in addressing climate risks and enhancing adaptive capacity [6]. - The cost reductions in low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic cells and wind turbines, have made them viable alternatives for many low- and middle-income developing countries, promoting climate mitigation [8]. - Investment in adaptation measures is crucial for developing countries, which are often the most vulnerable to climate risks, and China's poverty alleviation experience is highlighted as a key factor in enhancing resilience [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the differentiated recovery momentum and varying growth rhythms of the global economy, with China's economic performance being particularly significant in terms of growth rate, increment, and total volume [1] Group 2 - In terms of growth rate, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, contrasting sharply with most G20 economies, where growth rates are below 2%, and some like Germany, France, and Italy are below 1% [3] - The economic increment for China in 2025 is equivalent to the total economic output of Belgium, showcasing the substantial annual growth for an already large economy [6] Group 3 - By 2025, China's total economic output is expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, India, the UK, and Italy, reinforcing China's capacity to withstand risks and maintain long-term growth [9] Group 4 - In 2025, the provinces of Shandong, Guangdong, and Jiangsu are projected to each exceed a GDP of 10 trillion yuan, comparable to the total economic output of Saudi Arabia, reflecting the robust economic strength at the provincial level in China [11] Group 5 - Beijing and Shanghai are expected to each surpass a GDP of 5 trillion yuan in 2025, equivalent to Argentina's economic output, highlighting the urbanization and industrial concentration in China [16] Group 6 - By 2025, there will be 29 "trillion-yuan cities" in China, each comparable to Kenya's economic output, demonstrating the vibrant and solid economic structure of Chinese cities and regions [18] - The data comparisons from growth rate to increment, and total volume to provincial and municipal levels, underline the deep support from a large-scale market, a complete industrial system, and the potential for innovative development [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China is one of the most important economies globally, characterized by diversity and benefiting from technological innovation and strong manufacturing and export performance [2] - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about China's growth prospects and economic potential, with a long-term and firm commitment to investing in the Chinese market [2] - The Chinese economy has achieved its set growth target for 2025, with a significant focus on consumption as a core growth opportunity, supported by government initiatives to boost consumer spending [2] Group 2 - There has been an increase in international capital inflows into the Chinese market, with expectations that the proportion of foreign investment in China will rise above 10% in the future [2] - The joint venture between Goldman Sachs and ICBC, established in June 2022, is progressing steadily, marking it as the fourth joint wealth management company in China [3] - Goldman Sachs is encouraged by China's series of capital market opening measures, which are seen as crucial for attracting more capital from global investors [3]

"中国经济实现了其既定的2025年增长目标，这是非常有意义的。"在苏德巍看来，从长远来看，中国经 济最核心的增长机遇在于消费。近年来，中国政府更加重视消费对经济的提振作用，在"十五五"规划建 议中也有关于大力提振消费的相关表述，期待未来中国经济的增长动力将更多来自消费和服务业的发 展。 据苏德巍观察，2025年，中国市场的国际资金流入量有所增加，且中国资产在全球投资组合中的权重有 所提升，预计未来外资配置中国市场的比例有望回升至10%以上。（新华社） 高盛集团董事长兼首席执行官苏德巍近日在京接受采访时表示，高盛持续看好中国发展前景和经济增长 潜力，对中国市场的投入长期且坚定。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about China's economic growth potential and is committed to long-term investment in the Chinese market, highlighting the importance of consumption as a key driver of future growth [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon describes the Chinese economy as one of the most important and diverse economies globally, benefiting from technological innovation and strong manufacturing and export performance [1]. - The Chinese economy has achieved its set growth targets for 2025, which Solomon considers significant [1]. - Solomon anticipates an increase in international capital inflows into the Chinese market by 2025, with the proportion of foreign investment in China expected to rise above 10% [1]. Group 2: Market Engagement - Goldman Sachs has observed a resurgence in the activity of China's capital markets, which is encouraging for the firm's investment banking business in China [1]. - The joint venture between Goldman Sachs and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) has been steadily developing since its establishment in June 2022, marking it as the fourth joint venture wealth management company in China [2]. - Solomon emphasizes that China's series of capital market opening measures are crucial for attracting more global capital, reflecting a positive trend towards a more balanced and open economy [2].

Group 1 - The UK is sending a high-profile delegation of companies to China, indicating a strong interest in exploring business opportunities in the Chinese market [1] - The Chinese market is recognized for its scale and growth potential, prompting UK businesses to establish partnerships with Chinese companies [5] - The stability and predictability of the Chinese economy are crucial for global economic transformation, with China positioned as a key player [7] Group 2 - Confidence in China's economic growth aligns with the goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan, suggesting a positive outlook for future growth [9] - Companies like PwC and AstraZeneca are committed to increasing investments in China, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals [10][12] - The sentiment among UK businesses is that collaboration with Chinese firms is essential for achieving greater success in the global market [10][12]