Core Viewpoint - Modern warfare is no longer solely about conquest or military occupation, but rather about shaping favorable post-war scenarios, which involves a series of follow-up issues [3]. Group 1: U.S. Military Strategy in the Middle East - As of June 2025, over 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East, primarily from the Navy, with a limited number deployed at fixed military bases [6]. - Trump's strategy includes several considerations: creating a smokescreen to catch Iran off guard, observing the situation, preparing for the protection and evacuation of military bases, and mobilizing naval forces for potential conflict [7][8]. - The U.S. has approximately 20 military bases in countries such as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, Djibouti, and Turkey [12]. Group 2: Iran's Regional Influence - Iran has invested significant resources to establish a "Shia Crescent" extending from its territory through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, which has been a source of regional power [13]. - Following recent conflicts, Iran's influence in the region has diminished, leading to a potential restructuring of geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East [14]. Group 3: Potential Outcomes of Conflict - The ideal scenario from a U.S.-Israeli perspective would be the formation of a new axis of "U.S.-Israel-Arab" states, enhancing security and reducing Iranian influence [17][18]. - A prolonged conflict could lead to chaos in the Middle East, with Iran and its proxies engaging in a drawn-out war against U.S. and Israeli forces [19]. - The weakening of Iran may trigger a new power struggle among Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, as they vie for regional dominance [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - Modern warfare is increasingly focused on shaping favorable post-conflict situations rather than mere conquest or military occupation [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. made a significant error during the 2003 Iraq War by not adequately assessing the post-war situation, leading to the rapid expansion of Iranian influence in the region over the past two decades [2] - The current strategy of the Trump administration involves targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, which could define his legacy in Middle Eastern diplomacy [3] Group 2: Military Deployment and Strategy - As of June 2025, over 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East, primarily from the Navy, with few personnel deployed at fixed military bases [6] - Trump's previous deadlines for military action may serve multiple purposes, including creating a diversion, assessing the situation, and preparing for potential military strikes [7][8] Group 3: Domestic and International Reactions - There is a significant domestic push for large-scale military action against Iran, viewed as a unique opportunity to reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape [12] - Conversely, opposition voices argue that Israel's conflicts should not justify U.S. military intervention, advocating for a more restrained approach [13] Group 4: Potential Outcomes of Conflict - A major military engagement could lead to a restructured geopolitical landscape, potentially forming a new axis of "U.S.-Israel-Arab" cooperation, enhancing security for Israel and Arab nations [30][32] - Alternatively, prolonged conflict could result in chaos in the Middle East, with Iran and its proxies engaging in a drawn-out war against U.S. and allied forces [34] - Another scenario could see a power struggle among Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, as they vie for regional dominance following a significant weakening of Iran [39][48]