一，国衰，民穷——俄罗斯加税 久拖不决，没有胜利希望的俄乌战争，让俄罗斯国衰，民穷，为了继续打下去。 全国人民不得不分摊"战时成本"，最显眼的就是调整增值税， 俄罗斯财政部提了个方案，2026年1月起，这税要从20%涨到22%。 别看只涨了2个百分点，影响一点都不小。增值税是消费环节的税，最后都是消费者扛，跟买东西多花钱一个道理。 有人算过，就这一项，每个俄国家庭一年要多花4.55万卢布，差不多是3950块人民币。 2023年俄罗斯人均货币收入中位数为 36,600 卢布（2831块人民币），一个多月的工资没了。 普京团队明着说钱要用来"搞国防、保安全"，等于直接摊牌：打仗的钱，不够了，老百姓得多出。 其实俄罗斯经济早已是"战时模式"，国防开支占了联邦预算的40%，创下历史新高。 但战时模式还不够，还要加码！ 2025年秋天，俄罗斯人终于明白一个现实：打仗的代价，最终要从自己钱包里掏。传了三年的"越打越有钱"，如今连影子都没了。国家储备快用完了、借 债没人敢借、油价被打压而且卖不出去、影子舰队到处被抓.....而战争这个饕餮继续吞噬着巨额的财富。普京没有办法，只好再苦一苦百姓：加税、涨 价、一样都没落下。 不 ...

你有没有发现，美国这几年就像是踩了急刹车，整个人往前一冲，摔得七荤八素。问题不是一点点，而是两块硬伤死死拴住了它。 国内矛盾也越来越尖锐。去年全美汽车工人联合会大罢工，喊的就是30美元时薪，美联储主席鲍威尔自己也承认劳动力市场紧张。上层资本市场的人炒AI 概念、炒币照样赚得飞起，底层工人却只能靠罢工跟企业掰手腕。这种社会撕裂，用谁的话都解释不圆。 说白了，美国的玩法就是拆东墙补西墙。财政紧的时候，不是砍开支，而是继续借。外交上，为了稳住盟友，不惜砸钱。去年美国和菲律宾签署《加强防务 合作协议》，又给乌克兰、以色列批出大笔资金。这些钱从哪来？还不是举债。 这让我想到罗马帝国晚期。不是拿历史说事，而是逻辑很像：靠铸币税维持军费，靠行省的钱养帝国。但行省不听话了，币值崩了，帝国就撑不下去。美国 现在的问题是，全球经济多极化了，新兴国家有了自己的选择，美元的收割效应在减弱。 更现实的是，债务和利息已经渗透到普通美国家庭。美联储数据显示，美国家庭信用卡债务在2024年四季度突破1.13万亿美元，创历史新高。高消费和高负 债，是老百姓和国家一个模子刻出来的。区别只是规模大小。 第一块是债务。美国财政部的数据摆在那，截至2 ...

改写后的文本： 2025年，全球仍在消化地缘政治冲突的余震，而美国却在这片混沌中驶向了一条令人不安的新轨道。这既非传统意义上的军事对抗，也不是经济制裁的延 续，而是一场静水深流却影响深远的国家战略转向。 多位国际问题专家，包括知名评论家托马斯·弗里德曼在内，近期接连发出警示：这个曾经主导国际秩序构建的国家，正在蜕变为现有体系的规则破坏者。 这种转变不是空穴来风，而是体现在经济政策、外交战略、制度变革等各个层面，形成了一连串环环相扣的系统性风险。 曾经作为全球化推手的美国，如今更像一台巨型吸金器，通过种种手段将全球财富源源不断地抽向本土。年初，特朗普政府推出的新关税政策震惊世界，其 覆盖范围之广、税率之高，连前任政府官员都直呼难以置信。从德国汽车到韩国芯片，甚至连美国企业在海外生产的产品都未能幸免。 当世界强国开始奉行掠夺者逻辑，全球体系的稳定性就面临严峻挑战。美国的政策已不再是偶发的特例，而是对国际规则的系统性破坏。频繁的关税战迫使 各国企业重组供应链，这些额外成本最终都会转嫁给全球消费者。美国一边高喊自由市场，一边强行改写游戏规则。 世界贸易组织的处境就是明证。在美国的持续阻挠下，其上诉机构几近瘫痪，严重削 ...

Group 1 - The Swedish government plans to increase funding for the armed forces by 26.6 billion crowns ($2.87 billion) in the upcoming budget bill for 2026 [1]

Group 1 - Five U.S. F-35 stealth fighters landed at Roosevelt Roads military base in Puerto Rico on September 13, indicating increased pressure on Venezuela [1][3] - The U.S. has deployed military forces in the Caribbean under the pretext of combating drug trafficking in Latin America, contributing to rising tensions with Venezuela [1][3] - U.S. Defense Secretary and military leaders made a surprise visit to Puerto Rico, although the Pentagon stated there were no new troop deployment adjustments to announce [3] Group 2 - Venezuela launched the "People into the Barracks" initiative on September 13, allowing access to over 300 military camps for militia training [5] - The Venezuelan Defense Minister announced that large-scale military training would become a regular program, with over 8 million registered militia members participating weekly [5] - President Maduro emphasized the transition to advanced training and combat coordination, marking a new phase in national defense [5] Group 3 - Venezuela accused a U.S. Navy destroyer of illegally detaining a Venezuelan fishing vessel in its exclusive economic zone, escalating tensions [7] - The Venezuelan government described the U.S. military's actions as a direct provocation and an excuse for increased military operations in the Caribbean [7] - President Maduro rejected U.S. narratives and announced the deployment of defensive forces at 284 "frontline" locations to counter potential military incursions [7]

Core Insights - The recent revision of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, which erased 910,000 jobs, indicates potential manipulation, suggesting that half of the 1.8 million jobs added last year may have been fabricated [2][4] - Employment and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are identified as the two most critical indicators of the U.S. economy, with the recent data revision raising concerns about a possible recession [4][11] - Historical patterns show that the U.S. often engages in global interventions during economic downturns, with past examples including military actions and financial crises [5][7] Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data is crucial as it reflects the ability of Americans to consume, which is foundational to the U.S. economy [4] - The recent downward revision of employment data suggests a significant deterioration in economic conditions, potentially leading to a recession [2][4] Federal Reserve Actions - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17 is anticipated to result in interest rate cuts, a common response to signs of recession [4][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's call for the Fed to include long-term interest rates in its responsibilities indicates a shift towards Yield Curve Control (YCC) to manage national debt interest payments [8][10] Global Implications - The potential for the U.S. to print an additional $4 trillion to purchase government bonds could lead to a significant increase in global liquidity, impacting international markets [8][10] - The relationship between U.S. economic policies and Japan's financial strategies is highlighted, suggesting that Japan may be pressured to buy U.S. debt following recent agreements [10] Market Reactions - The revision of employment data and anticipated Fed actions have contributed to a surge in international gold prices, reflecting investor concerns over U.S. economic stability [8][10] - The potential for a "stagflation" scenario in the U.S. could open up opportunities for other markets, particularly in real estate and monetary policy adjustments in China [11][13]

Group 1 - Poland firmly rejected President Trump's claim that the drone incursion into its airspace could be a mistake, labeling it as a "deliberate Russian attack" [2] - Poland shot down a drone that violated its airspace with support from NATO allies, marking the first time a NATO member has fired during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [2][3] - European leaders condemned the drone incursion and called for new sanctions against Russia, with the UN Security Council scheduled to discuss the incident [2][4] Group 2 - Poland's Defense Minister stated that the drone incursion was a deliberate Russian attack aimed at testing Poland and NATO's response capabilities [3] - The incident raised questions about NATO's preparedness for drone attacks and the safety of civil aviation in Europe [4] - France announced the deployment of three "Rafale" fighter jets to help protect Polish airspace, while Germany committed to strengthening its presence on NATO's eastern flank [5]

Group 1 - The South Korean government approved a budget of 728 trillion won for the fiscal year 2026, marking an 8.1% increase from the previous year, which is significantly higher than the 2.5% increase this year, setting a record high for total budget expenditure [1] - The budget reflects a shift from a "tight" fiscal policy under the previous administration to an "expansionary" approach, focusing on stimulating growth through investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and research and development [1] - The R&D budget will increase from 29.6 trillion won to 35.3 trillion won, a 19.3% rise, the largest ever, aimed at accelerating innovation in six key sectors: AI, biotechnology, cultural content, defense, energy, and manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The defense budget will rise from 61.25 trillion won to 66.3 trillion won, with a focus on improving personnel welfare and developing advanced weapons such as next-generation stealth fighters, AI, drones, and robots, marking the first time the defense budget has increased by over 5 trillion won in a single year [1] - The budget for industrial policy will expand by 14.7% to 32.3 trillion won to support exporters affected by tariffs, while cultural industry spending will grow by 8.8% to 9.6 trillion won [2] - To finance the budget, the government plans to cut around 1,300 projects, freeing up 27 trillion won, but most of the new spending will rely on large-scale borrowing, pushing national debt to over 1,400 trillion won, which will account for 51.6% of GDP [2] Group 3 - The government aims to stimulate the economy through expansionary fiscal policies, which are expected to lead to a rebound in tax revenues, creating a virtuous cycle of "financing through finance" [3] - The budget will be submitted to the National Assembly for review in early September, with final approval expected in December [3]

Core Points - Japan's Ministry of Finance announced a record budget request of 122.4 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025, driven by rising prices, increased defense spending, and higher debt financing costs [1][2] - The budget request marks the third consecutive year of record-high applications, with significant increases from the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, and the Ministry of Defense [1] - The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare requested the largest share of the budget at 34.8 trillion yen, primarily due to rising medical and pension costs associated with an aging population [1] - The Ministry of Defense's budget request of 8.84 trillion yen exceeds the current fiscal year's 8.7 trillion yen, marking the largest defense budget request in Japan's history [2] - Japan is moving towards enhancing its "counterattack" capabilities, with military spending set to reach 2% of GDP, reflecting a shift from its long-standing pacifist stance [2] - The defense budget will fund the development of a defense system named "SHIELD," which includes deploying drones and producing hard-to-detect hypersonic missiles [2] - Concerns about Prime Minister Kishida's political stability may impact the government's control over fiscal spending, contributing to rising yields on Japanese government bonds [3] - Japan's current debt level is twice its economic output, ranking among the highest in developed economies [3]

Group 1 - European capitals are under pressure to make specific commitments for a multinational force planned for deployment to Ukraine, with leaders preparing to discuss contributions to Kyiv [1] - The "Alliance of Willing" is a core part of security guarantees for Ukraine, led by France and the UK, with support from the US [1] - There is uncertainty regarding individual member states' contributions, including whether to deploy ground troops and the basis for a collective defense agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Trump has informed European leaders that the US will provide intelligence support, command and control assets, and contributions to air defense, but Europe must lead the initiative [2] - The UK is reviewing its armed forces' readiness and accelerating funding to prepare for any deployment to Ukraine [2] - NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg expects specific proposals on security guarantees from the alliance to emerge soon [2] Group 3 - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed security guarantees and defense support with Macron, emphasizing the need for weapons and funding to strengthen Ukraine's military against Russia [2] - Zelensky held talks with leaders from Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Iceland, and Sweden to discuss potential contributions to Ukraine's defense [2]