Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that during the "15th Five-Year Plan," the demand for asphalt in China is expected to decline significantly, potentially reaching the lowest level in the past three five-year plans due to a shift in investment focus towards quality and efficiency in both real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][3][4] - According to projections, domestic asphalt consumption is expected to be around 30.78 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.88 million tons from 2024, representing a growth rate of 6.49%. However, the average domestic consumption over the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be 27.05 million tons, lower than the averages of 31.79 million tons and 31.42 million tons during the "13th" and "14th Five-Year Plans," respectively [1][3] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a focus on "high-quality development," which will lead to a reduction in investment scale and a downward adjustment in expected growth rates for real estate investments [3][4] Group 2 - The asphalt market's two main downstream sectors are highway construction and waterproofing, with highway construction being closely linked to local government finances and waterproofing demand directly related to real estate construction area [3][4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to slow down, with a structural shift observed since 2024, where investments in water management and green energy transition are growing rapidly, while traditional local government-led urban construction projects are experiencing slower growth [5][6] - The new rural road improvement initiative aims to complete the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, which may provide some incremental demand for asphalt. However, the lower quality of rural roads and the preference for cement in some cases may limit the overall impact on asphalt demand [6][7]