报告导读： 防水行业是消费建材中出清最彻底的子行业， 2026 年行业头部企业有望继续 推进复价策略，行业盈利能力修复可期。 维持行业"增持"评级。 经历了应收账款信用风险和较为快速的量价下滑后，防水成为近年消费建材出清最剧烈的子行业。我们估算 2024 年行业前四家市占 率已经接近 50% 。作为轻资产化学建材行业，龙头企业在 B 端工程业务已经接近盈亏平衡下，这意味着行业盈利能力已经处在底部位置。 2025 年行业主 要公司已经开始进行底部提价尝试，意味着主导企业经营策略的集体转变。 2026 年行业稳价复价的趋势有望更加明显，叠加开年沥青价格较低基础， 2026 年行业盈利有希望明显修复。 防水行业出清最剧烈，集中度提升带来复价可能。 2021 年行业需求从高峰调整以来，防水行业是消费建材中出清最剧烈的子行业。这来自于 :1. 行业"垫 资"传统下应收账款信用风险暴露出清中小企业； 2. 行业开工端占比相对高需求下滑更领先； 3. 行业近年价格竞争激烈。我们估算以 2024 年为例，行业规 模前三企业合计市占率已经提升到 50% 左右， 2025 年应有进一步的提升。行业集中度的快速提升带来了两方面的变 ...

建材行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251229 摘要 建材行业投资策略转向阿尔法驱动，关注市占率提升带来的业绩增长， 如三棵树、兔宝宝、东方雨虹和汉高集团，预计业绩增长在 20%~30% 之间。 出海链方面，看好非洲建材市场，受益于人口和城镇化红利及美国降息 周期，重点关注科达制造和华新建材，预计未来三年华新建材复合增速 超过 30%，科达制造瓷砖业务增速在 10%以上，加上扩品类后海外销 量增长在 15%~20%。 AI 链条中，看好 AI PCB 环节的电子布材料，公司如菲利华和中材科技 表现突出，预计中材科技 2026 年的目标市值可达 800 亿，到 2027 年 有望达到 900~1,000 亿。 预计 2026 年整体房地产销售面积将达到 6 亿平米，同比下降 10%左右， 建材需求平均下滑幅度在 3%至 5%，但翻新需求将支撑总需求，看好涂 料、板材、家具五金等赛道。 建材行业供给端持续收缩，截至 2024 年累计下降约 30%，龙头企业竞 争力增强，通过价格战与品牌竞争获得市占率提升，企业经营拐点可能 早于行业整体拐点出现。 建材行业供给端情况如何？ 从供给端来看，根据公开数据，截至 20 ...

北新集团建材股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：20251223 | | 多年的市场培育，现已遍布全国各大城市及发达地区县级市。五 | | --- | --- | | | 是品牌优势，公司成功打造了全球石膏板行业著名自主品牌"龙 | | | 牌"和"泰山"，同时拥有"禹王""蜀羊""梦牌""灯塔" | | | "嘉宝莉""大桥"等多个知名品牌，产品广泛应用于国家重大 | | | 工程、地标性建筑和现代家居生活。北新建材品牌价值达 1,282.55 | | 亿元，位列中国 | 500 最具价值品牌第 70 位。 | | | 2.石膏板业务未来的需求增长点及价格展望 | | | 答：石膏板行业需求出现结构性分化，二次装修、城市更新、 | | | 家装零售、县乡市场及创新平替等方面是主要需求增长点。公司 | | | 继续坚持"价本利"管理理念，通过"一个价格分头实现"，通 | | 过产品创新与平替，引领行业价格不断修复。 | | | 3. | 目前防水行业价格情况，如何看待未来防水行业价格修复 | | 情况？ | | | | 答：目前公司防水产品价格相对稳定。公司希望与行业内企 | | | 业携手推动行业走向良 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that during the "15th Five-Year Plan," the demand for asphalt in China is expected to decline significantly, potentially reaching the lowest level in the past three five-year plans due to a shift in investment focus towards quality and efficiency in both real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][3][4] - According to projections, domestic asphalt consumption is expected to be around 30.78 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.88 million tons from 2024, representing a growth rate of 6.49%. However, the average domestic consumption over the "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to be 27.05 million tons, lower than the averages of 31.79 million tons and 31.42 million tons during the "13th" and "14th Five-Year Plans," respectively [1][3] - The real estate sector is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a focus on "high-quality development," which will lead to a reduction in investment scale and a downward adjustment in expected growth rates for real estate investments [3][4] Group 2 - The asphalt market's two main downstream sectors are highway construction and waterproofing, with highway construction being closely linked to local government finances and waterproofing demand directly related to real estate construction area [3][4] - Infrastructure investment is expected to slow down, with a structural shift observed since 2024, where investments in water management and green energy transition are growing rapidly, while traditional local government-led urban construction projects are experiencing slower growth [5][6] - The new rural road improvement initiative aims to complete the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, which may provide some incremental demand for asphalt. However, the lower quality of rural roads and the preference for cement in some cases may limit the overall impact on asphalt demand [6][7]

Core Insights - The construction and building materials industry is undergoing a deep structural adjustment, with national real estate development investment declining by 14.7% year-on-year from January to October 2025, while the confidence index for building materials and home furnishings managers fell by 61.68 points in October, indicating widespread growth anxiety among companies. However, Oriental Yuhong (002271), a leader in the waterproofing industry, demonstrated resilience with a year-on-year revenue growth of 8.51% in Q3 2025 and a significant increase of 184.56% in net cash flow from operating activities [1] Group 1: Channel Restructuring - The company has initiated a channel transformation by prioritizing retail and partner strategies, moving away from reliance on direct sales to major real estate clients. In the first half of 2025, revenue from engineering and retail channels reached 11.406 billion yuan, accounting for 84.06% of total revenue, while direct sales dropped to 15% [2] - Retail revenue further increased to 37.28% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, following the company's previous achievement of surpassing 10.209 billion yuan in retail revenue last year. The "Rainbow People Plan" has empowered partners to attract customers, and new initiatives have been launched to enhance consumer experience [2] Group 2: Asset Optimization - The company is actively disposing of idle assets to optimize resource allocation, having sold idle properties in Beijing and Hangzhou and completed the sale of shares in Kingsoft Services. This strategy aims to convert short-term assets into long-term development opportunities, aligning with market expectations for efficient asset allocation [3] - The trend of asset sales in the building materials sector is increasing, with the scale surpassing 12 billion yuan in 2024, up from 7.6 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a shift towards a "lightweight" operational model in the industry [3] Group 3: Globalization Strategy - In response to domestic market adjustments, the company has positioned internationalization as a key growth driver, establishing a global layout through self-built bases, overseas acquisitions, and localized operations. In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue grew by 42.16% year-on-year [4] - The company has developed an integrated network for production and supply across regions, with production bases in Malaysia, Canada, and the Middle East, and is advancing its operations in Houston, USA. The acquisition of a leading Chilean building materials company has facilitated rapid market entry into South America [4] - Currently, the company operates in 18 countries, collaborating with international chemical firms like BASF to develop advanced materials, and leveraging a global network to penetrate over 150 countries and regions [4] Conclusion - The company's ability to navigate through industry cycles stems from its long-term commitment to building core competencies. By transforming channels, optimizing assets, and expanding globally, Oriental Yuhong is poised to unlock further growth potential and serve as a replicable model for high-quality development in the construction and building materials industry [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - October domestic fixed asset investment data is under pressure, with a focus on companies benefiting from overseas business growth, such as Huaxin Cement, which saw a 76.01% year-on-year increase in net profit [6] - The cement price is marginally rising, while the decline in float glass prices is narrowing [2] - The real estate market remains under pressure, with significant year-on-year declines in new and second-hand housing transactions [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others benefiting from domestic demand recovery and tariff disruptions [6] - Companies in the waterproofing sector like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun Co. are recommended due to frequent price increases [6] - The solar glass sector is also highlighted, with companies like Qibin Group and Xinyi Solar expected to benefit from price adjustments [6] Cement Market Analysis - National cement prices increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with price rises mainly in Hebei, Fujian, Henan, Hunan, and Guangxi [2] - The average price of float glass decreased slightly, with a 0.16% decline [2] - The market for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with no significant changes in prices [2] Real Estate Market Insights - In the 46th week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities was 1.6452 million square meters, down 26% year-on-year [3] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 monitored cities showed a year-on-year decline of 8% [3] Company Performance Highlights - Huaxin Cement's net profit for the first three quarters reached 2.004 billion yuan, up 76.01% year-on-year, driven by overseas business growth [6] - Keda Manufacturing reported a 47.19% increase in revenue, with net profit rising by 63.49% [6] - The company Three Trees achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 81.2% year-on-year [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The overseas business continues to show strong growth, with companies like Huaxin Cement and Keda Manufacturing benefiting from this trend. Huaxin Cement reported a net profit of 2.004 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.01% [8] - Domestic demand expectations are rising, and the industry is experiencing price increases due to tariff disturbances and self-discipline in the market. Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement [8] - The waterproofing industry is seeing frequent price increases, indicating a turning point in industry revenue, with recommendations for companies like Oriental Yuhong and Keshun [8] - The special electronic cloth sector is experiencing high demand, with companies like China Jushi and China National Materials Technology benefiting from this trend [8] Summary by Sections Cement Market - National cement prices increased by 1% week-on-week, with price rises concentrated in regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Sichuan, ranging from 10 to 50 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of floating glass decreased by 3.30% to 1202.68 yuan/ton, with a narrowing decline [2][63] - The domestic market for photovoltaic glass is seeing a slight decline in prices, with 2.0mm coated panel prices at 12.5-13 yuan/square meter, down 1.92% [2][73] Real Estate Transactions - In the 44th week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 202.66 million square meters, down 40% year-on-year, while second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities decreased by 22% [3][22] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, Keda Manufacturing, and others in the special electronic cloth sector like China Jushi and China National Materials Technology [8][9]

Summary of Dongfang Yuhong's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing, mortar, and coating industry Key Points Industry Performance - Despite weak industry demand, Dongfang Yuhong achieved growth with a 12% year-on-year increase in membrane sales and over 60% growth in powder sales, attributed to strategic adjustments in retail, engineering, and direct sales channels [2][3][4] - The company is benefiting from structural demand, particularly in key engineering and large industrial sectors, with expectations for the industrial segment to stabilize in the coming year [2][8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Dongfang Yuhong reported an 8.5% revenue growth, ending a seven-quarter decline, with total revenue for the first three quarters at 20.6 billion yuan, down approximately 5% year-on-year [3][4] - The retail channel saw a revenue increase of 6% to 2.3 billion yuan, while the engineering channel's revenue was 9.76 billion yuan, showing a slight decline [4] - Direct sales revenue reached 1.1 billion yuan in Q3, achieving double-digit growth [4] Profitability and Cost Management - The company reduced sales and management expense ratios by 1-2 percentage points through efficiency improvements, although gross margins declined due to last year's price adjustments [5][6] - Gross margin for the engineering channel improved to 23% following a price increase, while the retail channel's gross margin slightly decreased to around 32% due to product structure changes and rebates [6] Cash Flow and Accounts Receivable - Dongfang Yuhong achieved positive operating cash flow for the first time in nearly a decade, indicating improved business quality through transformation efforts [7] - The company has seen significant improvements in cash flow and accounts receivable management, with a reduction in bad debt provisions due to increased property sale discounts [9][10] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The company is focusing on small B clients and has made progress in transitioning from large real estate clients, with expectations for the industrial segment to stabilize in 2026 [8][11] - Future revenue growth is anticipated from domestic retail expansion, new product categories, and maturing overseas operations [8] Overseas Expansion - Dongfang Yuhong is actively expanding in overseas markets, particularly in North America, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America, with a goal to increase overseas revenue share by 5 percentage points annually over the next five years [3][24][28] - The company is investing in local factories to enhance supply chain efficiency and reduce costs in international markets [25][26] Competitive Landscape - The waterproofing industry remains fragmented with many small players, but Dongfang Yuhong has increased its market share to an estimated 25-30% due to the exit of numerous competitors [18][19] - The company maintains a cost advantage of 10-15% over other large enterprises and higher compliance costs for small businesses, which do not provide a true cost advantage [19] Asset Management - The company holds approximately 2 billion yuan in real estate assets, with a significant portion classified under accounts receivable [20][22] - Bad debt provisions have increased due to higher property sale discounts, but future stabilization in property prices may reduce impairment amounts [9][10] Conclusion - Dongfang Yuhong's strategic adjustments and focus on structural demand have positioned the company for potential growth despite industry challenges, with a strong emphasis on improving cash flow, profitability, and expanding its international presence [2][8][25]

Summary of North New Building Materials Conference Call Industry Overview - The gypsum board industry is facing challenges due to macroeconomic downturns and a 18.9% decrease in new construction area, leading to reduced demand and price pressure [2][3][4] - Customers are shifting towards more cost-effective alternatives, further impacting prices [2][3] - Increased competition from foreign brands and cross-industry entrants has intensified pressure in the low-end market [2][3] Company Performance and Strategies - North New Building Materials has seen a doubling in sales of its home decoration product series (e.g., Longpan Guochao series, Taishan series) in the retail and rural markets from January to September, which is expected to drive overall volume and price increases [2][4] - The company is optimistic about a price increase for gypsum boards in 2026, supported by signs of rational recovery in the industry as small and high-end brands begin to raise prices [2][4] - The company is investing in technological innovations, such as the TF version and its derivatives, to enhance product attributes and replace other materials [2][4] - A new 2000 square meter production line is under construction, expected to release 20 million square meters of capacity, significantly improving pricing and profit margins [2][4] Financial Performance - The waterproof business has achieved positive revenue and profit growth despite adverse external conditions, benefiting from the company's strong capabilities and future development certainty [5][6] - Beijing Jiaboli's net profit exceeded 300 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by market share pursuit, cost reduction, and improved operational quality [5][6] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue internal development while pursuing external expansion in the waterproof and coating sectors, targeting large-scale acquisitions in the construction coating market and focusing on niche areas like automotive and marine coatings [5][6][8] - North New Building Materials is actively pursuing globalization, focusing on greenfield projects in Southeast Asia and Africa, while using acquisitions in developed markets [8][9] Market Dynamics - The company is addressing the competitive landscape by simplifying competition and enhancing product differentiation, particularly in strategic locations [13][23] - The company aims to expand the gypsum board market by introducing new applications and products, such as fire-resistant applications, to increase market capacity [23][24] Challenges and Responses - The company acknowledges challenges in the gypsum board sector, including price pressure and competition, and is implementing measures to enhance internal collaboration and optimize production layouts [15][18] - North New Building Materials is committed to maintaining a balanced growth strategy, focusing on value-driven operations rather than just scale [12] Conclusion - North New Building Materials is navigating a challenging market environment with strategic innovations, a focus on quality, and a commitment to expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally. The company is optimistic about future price increases and growth opportunities in various segments, including waterproofing and coatings.

Summary of Dongfang Yuhong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing materials within the construction materials sector Key Points and Arguments Industry Dynamics - The waterproofing industry has experienced a significant supply-side clearing, primarily due to the implementation of new waterproofing regulations and the collective procurement model during the real estate bubble, which led to excessive investments and pressure on balance sheets and cash flows [2][4][5] - The industry is expected to transition into an oligopoly, with leading companies like Dongfang Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, and Keshun Holdings controlling approximately 40% of the market share [2][6][7] Company Performance - Dongfang Yuhong has increased its market share to 22% as of 2024, positioning itself as a leader in the industry [2][5][8] - The company has implemented price increases since early 2025, which have been followed by other leading firms, contributing to improved profit margins [6][9] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with projections indicating that operational profits could exceed 2 billion in 2025, and potentially reach between 2.5 billion to 3 billion in 2026 due to overseas expansion [13] Future Growth Potential - Dongfang Yuhong has significant growth potential through optimizing product structure, enhancing service quality, and adjusting pricing strategies [2][8] - The company is focusing on channel transformation, with retail channels accounting for 36% of total sales, and plans to expand its special mortar business, which currently contributes over 15% to total revenue [10][12] - The anticipated recovery in the waterproofing industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, similar to trends observed in the cement industry [9] Strategic Initiatives - Future strategies include enhancing the proportion of engineering and retail channels, which currently make up 70%-80% of total sales [11] - The company plans to expand its product categories, including special mortars and construction sealants, and is actively pursuing overseas market opportunities, such as the acquisition of a Chilean building materials retail supermarket [12] Market Outlook - The overall market for waterproofing materials is expected to stabilize and gradually recover over the next two years, with leading companies likely to benefit from collaborative price increases [7][9] Additional Important Insights - The competitive landscape is shifting, making it increasingly difficult for smaller companies to gain market share, thereby solidifying the position of leading firms like Dongfang Yuhong [7][8] - The company’s resilience and strategic adjustments have positioned it favorably to navigate the current market challenges and capitalize on future opportunities [10][13]