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理想汽车-W(02015.HK):业绩预期之中 指引表现略低
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 19:04
Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's Q2 2025 financial results show a mixed performance with a slight increase in vehicle deliveries but a decline in revenue and average selling price (ASP) [1][2] Financial Performance - Q2 vehicle deliveries reached 111,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.6% [1] - Q2 revenue was 30.25 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year but up 16.6% quarter-on-quarter; automotive business revenue was 28.89 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year but up 17% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q2 was 260,000 yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [1] - For the first half of 2025, cumulative sales were 204,000 units, up 7.9% year-on-year, with revenue of 56.18 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year [1] Cost and Profitability - Q2 gross margin was 20.1%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; automotive gross margin was 19.4%, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year but down 0.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 was 1.468 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year but up 46.8% quarter-on-quarter; non-GAAP net profit per vehicle was 13,000 yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year but up 22.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - For the first half of 2025, non-GAAP net profit was 2.468 billion yuan, down 11.2% year-on-year, with net profit per vehicle at 12,000 yuan, down 17.7% year-on-year [2] Market Outlook - The company expects Q3 vehicle deliveries to be between 90,000 and 95,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 37.8% to 41.1%; Q3 revenue is projected to be between 24.8 billion and 26.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.8% to 42.1% [3] - Factors affecting Q3 performance include intense market competition, lack of promotional policies for the L series, and the impact of the i8 launch on brand strength [3] Strategic Focus - The company is advised to monitor pricing strategies and promotional adjustments for its range-extended vehicles, as well as the competitive positioning of upcoming models [3] - Li Auto's core strengths include product development capabilities, strategic planning, and refined management, despite current operational pressures [4]