Core Viewpoint - The stock of Mao Geping (01318) has risen over 9%, currently at 106.8 HKD, driven by the upcoming Double 11 shopping festival and positive market sentiment towards domestic cosmetic brands [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The Double 11 shopping festival has commenced, with domestic cosmetic brands announcing promotional mechanisms [1] - Li Jiaqi's live streaming session will start pre-sales on the evening of October 15 [1] - The Double 11 period has been extended, with multiple platforms simplifying activity rules and shortening the purchasing decision process [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Guotai Junan Securities highlights the potential for brand momentum to amplify during the Double 11 event, recommending companies with strong product performance and brand recognition [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Mao Geping has significant growth opportunities due to its 25-year history and differentiated consumer experience [1] - The company aims to double its market share in the high-end cosmetics market from the current 2% [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% for Mao Geping's revenue and profit from FY2025 to FY2027, surpassing industry peers' growth rates of 19% and 16% [1] - Key catalysts for growth include the upcoming Double 11 event and the company's efforts to enhance brand equity and expand product categories [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that platforms are shifting their promotional strategies from emphasizing "absolute low prices" to simplifying discount rules and providing direct subsidies to consumers, enhancing shopping experiences and accelerating purchase decisions [1] - The 2025 Double Eleven shopping event will start earlier than in 2024, with platforms like Douyin and JD.com beginning promotions on October 9, followed by Xiaohongshu and Tmall [1] - The report highlights a trend where most cosmetic brands are simplifying their gift offerings to "buy the main product and get the same one for free," which is seen as a more direct way to lower the effective price for consumers [1][3] Group 2 - In terms of brand collaboration, high-end foreign brands and leading domestic brands are increasing the number of SKUs promoted during the Double Eleven event, with top brands like L'Oréal, Proya, and Estée Lauder maintaining a similar number of products compared to last year [2] - The report notes that while some international brands have decreased their promoted product numbers, domestic brands like Proya and others have increased their offerings, often featuring new products [2] - The pricing mechanism is evolving, with many brands simplifying their gift offerings and some mass-market brands lowering prices on key products, while high-end foreign brands are narrowing discounts due to previous price reductions [3]